THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Taking a Look at 2021

[Doc Brown]

Good write up but what do you think of special teams?  I think Andre Roberts will be missed more than fans realize and not resigning Bojo was disappointing after a pretty good year.

[machine gun kelly]

7 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Yeah, Deek, I hear you.   After years and years of excitement about a Mario, a Dareus, a Spiller, and the endless debates about Taylor and EJ and Fitz, this off-season was like a balloon that never inflated enough to have the air let out of it.  

 

But there was an important point to what I wrote, a point I talk about a lot.   I think that in the NFL, coaching is more important than talent, and I think the Bills 2021 off-season demonstrates the McDermott and Beane think so, too.  Beane was all about improving talent wherever he could, but not because the talent he already had wasn't good enough.  He wasn't filling holes, and he wasn't solving problems for McDermott.   The league creates opportunities to get better players, and Beane certainly was going to take advantage of the opportunity.  So he did, with some nice but unspectacular free agent deals, and by drafting players with upside when his turn came.  

 

The off-season tells us that McDermott and Beane didn't think they needed to add a special talent to win.  They didn't need to trade again to get someone like Diggs.  They didn't need to trade up in the draft.  

 

Instead, Beane and McDermott believe in the process, in the continuous improvement of the individual players and the team.  They knew the day after the loss to KC that they would be better in 2021, better in important ways.   The new talent Beane was able to bring in just helps.

First, Shaw, it’s football season coming if we get a Rockpile Review so thanks for the careful thoughts and preparation.  I couldn’t agree more on coaching.  Far too much time is spent on the raw talent argument vs. getting the absolute most out of a player.  To some degree, all NFL players are uniquely talented, but it’s the right leadership, vision, and COACHING that makes it all work.  I believe McBeane has exactly those qualities which is why it’s silly to lament the team will regress this year.  I expect even more especially with the continuity of coaching.

 

I can’t wait for camp, and the season.

[CSBill]

Thanks for the thoughtful perspective Shaw. And for the clarification on Edmunds and Beasley. I do agree with you that I think the Beasley thing has been way over-blown. He's not a conformist, but by all indications he has always been a great teammate. I want to think he'll do what he needs to make himself and his team better. And one big point related to that, McDermott's culture building emphasis and ability (which seems to be through the roof) will be tested here. I have no doubt he has been in conversation with Beasley, and is doing what he needs to make sure this does not become a distraction from the team goals. There's a popular business/leadership saying: "Culture trumps strategy, every time." McDermott strongly believes that (think, "the Process") and has worked too hard to let this issue distract from what he and Beane have built.

 

A few have said this in the thread, and I'll second it: Our Defense will be better this year. Having Star back has to help. And, as you highlight, if Edmunds begins to get near his full potential that will be huge.  Add to that, Ed Oliver! I am confident we will begin to see his full abilities as well this year. Milano is quietly becoming (outside of Buffalo) a star. Our secondary is top tier in the league. And, there is a lot of young talent (draftees over the past few years) that I think will emerge as they now know the system and can better execute it. I do think last year was an anomaly for this D. The line will be better. And this defense will be back in the Top 10 conversation, and statistically.

 

One more point, to add to what Doc says above: McDermott and Beane have always given a lot of attention to Special Teams. It seems to be a focus of their Free Agent work each year. Bass is a budding superstar, it looks like we've improved at the Punter position, but the big question is who will be the top returner. We will miss Andre Roberts, but not that much. Which circles to my point about ST Free Agents and the emphasis there. We are going to learn this year, was it A Roberts, or was it more a product of a really good collection of ST players? I think whoever the return man is should be just fine? We'll see. My hope is we're saying, "Andre Who?" by mid-season.

 

Training camp can't get here soon enough.

 

Edited July 19, 2021 by CSBill

[eball]

Before last season I predicted the Bills would win the AFC East and host (at least) one playoff game, and that 2021 would mark the beginning of Buffalo domination.

 

We’re here.

[freddyjj]

2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Good write up but what do you think of special teams?  I think Andre Roberts will be missed more than fans realize and not resigning Bojo was disappointing after a pretty good year.

First things first - @Shaw66  as usual great write up and a pleasure to read as a result.  

 

@Doc BrownI share your concern about our Return game without Roberts.  Hoping McKenzie can handle punts and wonder if they can use Breida on KOs. Not as worried about the Haack for Bojo swap as the hope is that Haack will help with pinning teams inside their 20.

 

As for my read on team overall there are 4 areas we need to see dramatic improvement:

1.  Run blocking - Ford's return and a summer with the 5 starters learning the system are the keys to improvement here. 

2.  DLine play - the return of Star and the addition of 3 new pass rushers should help the Bills get back in the top 10 Ds both against the pass and run.  Oliver needs to emerge as a 3 down threat.

3.  Edmunds does need to become a dominant player versus the run and pass.  He showed an ability to pressure QBs when given the chance late last year.  And he needs to help in the run fits on a more consistent basis.  

4.  TE play to add 3rd down conversion improvement and a down the seam threat.  Hollister and Knox have the speed to threaten down the seam.   Have not seen this in Daboll's scheme to date. 

 

Go Bills 

Edited July 19, 2021 by freddyjj

[oldmanfan]

Great work as always, Shaw. 

[Shaw66]

There have been a couple of comments about Oliver.  I've pretty much given up hope that Oliver is going to be something special, and I'll be delighted if he proves me wrong.  I think we all talked ourselves into believing that Oliver was the next Aaron Donald, and he isn't.  If he were, we would have seen some of it by now.   Yes, he played all last season without Star beside him, and that probably limited his production a bit.  But a great player doesn't need teammates for him to at least show flashes of his greatness.  

 

I have to admit that I've transferred my hopes for greatness to Rousseau, and those hopes are probably unfounded, as well.   At least Oliver was a consensus top 10 draft pick, so there was some reason to hope he'd be special.  Rousseau is a unique guy, and maybe he'll surprise everyone, but no team in the draft saw him as a potential Jadeveon Clowney (to name an apparent superstar who wasn't), let alone an Aaron Donald.  

 

I think that expectations for the D line should be different.  My expectation is that they will make plays across the whole line, with no one standing out.  If Star can anchor the middle with help from Phillips, then Oliver, Hughes, Basham, Epenesa, Addison, and Rousseau each should make their share of plays. They'll be running stunts and games all day.  If Addison or Hughes ends up in a reduced role because Epenesa and/or one of the rookies emerges quickly, then we're looking at great, great depth in the rotation.   And I don't have a sense of what the other names on the roster might contribute.  

 

I'm not looking for a star to emerge on the d line, but I expect solid improvement across the line.

[LABILLBACKER]

21 hours ago, HOUSE said:

I am thinking the running game will be critical this year. Can't afford a let down

Yes the process better include getting Josh a substantially better running game. Elway never won a SB until Denver found TD. Marino never got a ring because Miami went all passing. I have zero faith in Singletary and just a glimmer of hope in Moss. It wouldn't surprise me to see Breida pass both. This team has only 2 weaknesses after this offseason. The RB & TE room. Maybe Breida and Hollister shine? But if they don't the process will command that JA carries the team. 

[SoCal Deek]

9 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Yes the process better include getting Josh a substantially better running game. Elway never won a SB until Denver found TD. Marino never got a ring because Miami went all passing. I have zero faith in Singletary and just a glimmer of hope in Moss. It wouldn't surprise me to see Breida pass both. This team has only 2 weaknesses after this offseason. The RB & TE room. Maybe Breida and Hollister shine? But if they don't the process will command that JA carries the team. 

I couldn’t agree more. They cannot be one dimensional. Given enough time and film NFL coaching staffs will figure out how to shut you down. And if the alternative is to have Josh run, we risk even more! 

[billsfan89]

The keys to this season in my mind are as followed. 

 

1- Health (really the key to any season) 

2- Will the pass rush be better against elite competition? 

3- Will Star make enough impact in the run defense? 

4- Will the WR's around Diggs be enough of a complement? 

5- Will the run game be turned around and more of a component to the offense when needed? 

 

The first one is pretty simple, you have to stay healthy and that's a wildcard in any sport. The second one is the team's big Achilles heel in my opinion. The pass rush was upper mid-level last year. Good against average and poor pass blocking offensive lines but struggled at times against other units. The team had limited resources but invested their resources they had were heavily invested into improving the pass rush via the draft. Will Gregory and Boogie along with the free agency addition of Efe Obada are a solid blend of reinforcements behind AJ, Jerry and Addison. But what will the impact be of those three along with how much can AJ improve in year two? If this team can develop a bigger pass rush it will go a long way towards winning those deeper playoff games. 

 

The next biggest concern is the impact Star will have. The defense really lacked a true one tech last season. Will Star returning from opt out simply be enough to plug that hole? Will this team address the lack of a true one tech if Star is hurt or lackluster? I would then say on offense the next biggest concerns will be if the complementary weapons around Diggs be enough? Will Gabe Davis take a step up, can Cole maintain his production level and will E.Sanders be able to provide significant production? I feel overall confident in the group but if Cole and Sanders get old quick and Davis isn't ready for prime time it could be an issue. 

 

Finally the other issue on the offensive side is can the ground game turn around? The ground game doesn't need to be a vast component in the offense but when needed can it be counted on? 

[Shaw66]

29 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Yes the process better include getting Josh a substantially better running game. Elway never won a SB until Denver found TD. Marino never got a ring because Miami went all passing. I have zero faith in Singletary and just a glimmer of hope in Moss. It wouldn't surprise me to see Breida pass both. This team has only 2 weaknesses after this offseason. The RB & TE room. Maybe Breida and Hollister shine? But if they don't the process will command that JA carries the team. 

I think 2021 improvement in the running is almost a given.  First, it would be hard not to get at least a little better, because it was pretty awful in 2020.  Awful in the sense that the running game wasn't anywhere close to being a dependable offensive option.  

 

I think it will improve significantly, for two reasons:  offensive line and coaching.  Everyone is working to improve the running game, but other than learning to make the best judgments behind the line of scrimmage - the right first cut, the backs have the least room for improvement.  They aren't going to get faster, stronger, quicker, any of that.  But what we have from Singletary and Moss in their rookie seasons was solid ability to get into and out of the hole, when the hole is there.   They aren't game breakers in that situation, but they both are very good at hitting the hole and creating some yardage - 3-5-8-12 yards.  If they're healthy, the run game will improve if the offensive line creates the opportunities.  And, yes, Breida is the wildcard in the whole situation.  If the breakout Breida reemerges, he could have a big season. 

 

It's about the determination of the offensive line to win their battles, whether with strictly speed and muscle or with teamwork and scheme.   It will be some of both, of course.  They will belong a new level of ferocity to how they play, because they know they need to do that.   And they will work together better than a season ago, because they have that experience together and because they want to.   And if one or another of the rookies breaks into the starting lineup, that would mean there has been a serious talent upgrade - someone has to be a seriously good lineman to win a starting job as a rookie.  

 

It's about the coaching  because it's the coaches' job to put the players in situations where they can win.  They have to design and run plays where the linemen can play to their strengths, whatever they are, plays where players' weaknesses aren't exposed and easy to attack.   Needless to say, McDermott has been saying this to Daboll and his crew since last season ended.   And they didn't need to be told - they know it. 

 

So they're working on the running game, for sure, and they will execute better, for sure.   

 

I expect the running game to be much improved.   

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

8 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think 2021 improvement in the running is almost a given.  First, it would be hard not to get at least a little better, because it was pretty awful in 2020.  Awful in the sense that the running game wasn't anywhere close to being a dependable offensive option.  

 

I think it will improve significantly, for two reasons:  offensive line and coaching.  Everyone is working to improve the running game, but other than learning to make the best judgments behind the line of scrimmage - the right first cut, the backs have the least room for improvement.  They aren't going to get faster, stronger, quicker, any of that.  But what we have from Singletary and Moss in their rookie seasons was solid ability to get into and out of the hole, when the hole is there.   They aren't game breakers in that situation, but they both are very good at hitting the hole and creating some yardage - 3-5-8-12 yards.  If they're healthy, the run game will improve if the offensive line creates the opportunities.  And, yes, Breida is the wildcard in the whole situation.  If the breakout Breida reemerges, he could have a big season. 

 

It's about the determination of the offensive line to win their battles, whether with strictly speed and muscle or with teamwork and scheme.   It will be some of both, of course.  They will belong a new level of ferocity to how they play, because they know they need to do that.   And they will work together better than a season ago, because they have that experience together and because they want to.   And if one or another of the rookies breaks into the starting lineup, that would mean there has been a serious talent upgrade - someone has to be a seriously good lineman to win a starting job as a rookie.  

 

It's about the coaching  because it's the coaches' job to put the players in situations where they can win.  They have to design and run plays where the linemen can play to their strengths, whatever they are, plays where players' weaknesses aren't exposed and easy to attack.   Needless to say, McDermott has been saying this to Daboll and his crew since last season ended.   And they didn't need to be told - they know it. 

 

So they're working on the running game, for sure, and they will execute better, for sure.   

 

I expect the running game to be much improved.   

 

 

Yes the o-line will determine the success of Moss and especially Breida. Devin just doesn't have the burst or vision to attack A/B gap seams. I agree the run game will improve. The issue will be by how much. Daboll must not be tempted to overuse Josh's athleticism. Josh will pick his moments,  but holding off a pass rush with a good run scheme is paramount to the Bills winning a SB.  No team in the NFL has a better process/culture than this team. As you said so eloquently Shaw it is about coaching and player determination. 

[SoCal Deek]

17 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think 2021 improvement in the running is almost a given.  First, it would be hard not to get at least a little better, because it was pretty awful in 2020.  Awful in the sense that the running game wasn't anywhere close to being a dependable offensive option.  

 

I think it will improve significantly, for two reasons:  offensive line and coaching.  Everyone is working to improve the running game, but other than learning to make the best judgments behind the line of scrimmage - the right first cut, the backs have the least room for improvement.  They aren't going to get faster, stronger, quicker, any of that.  But what we have from Singletary and Moss in their rookie seasons was solid ability to get into and out of the hole, when the hole is there.   They aren't game breakers in that situation, but they both are very good at hitting the hole and creating some yardage - 3-5-8-12 yards.  If they're healthy, the run game will improve if the offensive line creates the opportunities.  And, yes, Breida is the wildcard in the whole situation.  If the breakout Breida reemerges, he could have a big season. 

 

It's about the determination of the offensive line to win their battles, whether with strictly speed and muscle or with teamwork and scheme.   It will be some of both, of course.  They will belong a new level of ferocity to how they play, because they know they need to do that.   And they will work together better than a season ago, because they have that experience together and because they want to.   And if one or another of the rookies breaks into the starting lineup, that would mean there has been a serious talent upgrade - someone has to be a seriously good lineman to win a starting job as a rookie.  

 

It's about the coaching  because it's the coaches' job to put the players in situations where they can win.  They have to design and run plays where the linemen can play to their strengths, whatever they are, plays where players' weaknesses aren't exposed and easy to attack.   Needless to say, McDermott has been saying this to Daboll and his crew since last season ended.   And they didn't need to be told - they know it. 

 

So they're working on the running game, for sure, and they will execute better, for sure.   

 

I expect the running game to be much improved.   

 

 

Shaw, I put the run game improvement on the O Line, and coaching/play design. Too many times over the last couple of years there was nothing more than a pile of humanity in front our running backs. Something is wrong! Either the linemen aren’t good enough at getting their frame under them while on the move (line play is like heavy weight wrestling match while on the move) or the timing of the  pulling motion and their blocks is all messed up. Our backs are not built for the big cut back runs that make something out of nothing. They need something that looks a little bit like a hole….even a little bit. 

[Shaw66]

25 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Shaw, I put the run game improvement on the O Line, and coaching/play design. Too many times over the last couple of years there was nothing more than a pile of humanity in front our running backs. Something is wrong! Either the linemen aren’t good enough at getting their frame under them while on the move (line play is like heavy weight wrestling match while on the move) or the timing of the  pulling motion and their blocks is all messed up. Our backs are not built for the big cut back runs that make something out of nothing. They need something that looks a little bit like a hole….even a little bit. 

A different way of saying what I said. Pile of humanity is a great description.  

 

The line will be better.  More experience, better depth, Ford back, and maybe one or two of those big rookies wins a starting role. 

[ganesh]

On 7/19/2021 at 3:08 AM, HOUSE said:

I am thinking the running game will be critical this year. Can't afford a let down

And so should the pass rush.  We have invested a lot in the pass rush with very meagre returns...We need to fix that in a hurry

[Shaw66]

8 minutes ago, ganesh said:

And so should the pass rush.  We have invested a lot in the pass rush with very meagre returns...We need to fix that in a hurry

Not in a hurry.  Fix it by November, December at the latest.  Earlier is nice but not necessary. 

[Figster]

Shaw as excited as I am for the new season to begin. Myself personally, the run game and TE position was not addressed/upgraded as well as perhaps it should/could have been IMO. Najee Harris appeared to be within reaching distance.  The Bills best fit in the pass catching T J Yeldon was sent packing IMO.???  Buffalo's main FA acquisition is a backup QB that has a greater chance of being called into action now because our biggest threat to run the football is still Josh Allen. Allen may have the best throwing arm the NFL has ever seen. Longevity would be nice. Adequate security blankets at the TE and RB position go a long ways in making it happen. 

 

With that being said our Bills football team is already sprinkled with greatness. Dare I even say elite at a few positions. None greater then Josh Allen.

 

Thanks for a great Rockpile review to get our taste buds going my friend.

 

Now lets Boogie woogie Basham our way to the big dance!!! 

Edited July 23, 2021 by Figster

[Thurman#1]

On 7/19/2021 at 6:49 PM, Doc Brown said:

Good write up but what do you think of special teams?  I think Andre Roberts will be missed more than fans realize and not resigning Bojo was disappointing after a pretty good year.

 

 

Agreed on both. Hopefully these moves won't cause major problems but I do expect a down-tick in both areas.

 

Robert in particular was under-rated for his contributions last year. He really did an excellent job.

 

Edited July 22, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Agreed on both. Hopefully these moves won't cause major problems but I do expect a down-tick in both areas.

 

Robert in particular was under-rated for his contributions last year. He really did an excellent job.

 

To you and Doc.  I agree about Roberts.   I think we all tend to be stuck on our memories of White Shoes and Deion and DeSean Jackson.  I think TD returns are now pretty much things of the past, because all teams are trying to eliminate explosive plays and have gotten good at that.   A really good punt returner now is a guy who is a constant threat to get you 20-30 yards, get you out of your end and to midfield or beyond.   That's what Roberts could do, consistently.   Those 20-30 yards are really important, because it allows the offense to open the whole playbook and not to worry about the occasional negative play.   

 

I also am guessing, without any real knowledge, that Stevenson is a bigger threat to make the team, and a threat to McKenzie, than many fans think.  Beane has said often that he tends to draft for need in the back end of the draft, so it says something about what he thinks about the return game when he drafts a punt returner.  Remember, last season they took Bass in the 6th round when they had a perfectly satisfactory kicker under a reasonable contract.  This year they took Stevenson in the 6th when they had a perfectly satisfactory return man under a reasonable contract.   

 

As for the rest of the special teams, we know that it is not an area that McDermott and Beane will ignore.  I'm sure they have the kinds of players they want on the special teams, and I'm sure they will be coached with the same precision and attention to detail that McDermott demands of the offense and defense.   Not likely that the special teams will hurt the Bills this season.   

[Thurman#1]

On 7/20/2021 at 1:06 AM, Shaw66 said:

There have been a couple of comments about Oliver.  I've pretty much given up hope that Oliver is going to be something special, and I'll be delighted if he proves me wrong.  I think we all talked ourselves into believing that Oliver was the next Aaron Donald, and he isn't.  If he were, we would have seen some of it by now.   Yes, he played all last season without Star beside him, and that probably limited his production a bit.  But a great player doesn't need teammates for him to at least show flashes of his greatness.  

 

I have to admit that I've transferred my hopes for greatness to Rousseau, and those hopes are probably unfounded, as well.   At least Oliver was a consensus top 10 draft pick, so there was some reason to hope he'd be special.  Rousseau is a unique guy, and maybe he'll surprise everyone, but no team in the draft saw him as a potential Jadeveon Clowney (to name an apparent superstar who wasn't), let alone an Aaron Donald.  

 

I think that expectations for the D line should be different.  My expectation is that they will make plays across the whole line, with no one standing out.  If Star can anchor the middle with help from Phillips, then Oliver, Hughes, Basham, Epenesa, Addison, and Rousseau each should make their share of plays. They'll be running stunts and games all day.  If Addison or Hughes ends up in a reduced role because Epenesa and/or one of the rookies emerges quickly, then we're looking at great, great depth in the rotation.   And I don't have a sense of what the other names on the roster might contribute.  

 

I'm not looking for a star to emerge on the d line, but I expect solid improvement across the line.

 

 

Shaw, it's still too early to know about Oliver. Plenty of guys who became great had not showed much by the end of their 2nd year.

 

Chris Doleman ended up with 150.5 sacks, including 21 in one year and by the end of his 2nd year he'd managed 3.5. Strahan is another guy who took a while to get going. Jim Marshall.

 

Fletcher Cox at the end of two years was still promising. Cameron Heyward is another. Chris Jones' first two years looked an awful lot like Oliver's.

 

Especially at DT, it takes a while for some guys.