THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Taking a Look at 2021

[Shaw66]

As training camp approaches, there’s not much to say about a team that went 13-3 with two playoff wins last season.   Not much to say except to ask, “Can they do more this season?”

 

It’s been a long time since Bills fans have been asking that question about their team – almost 30 years.  Back then, season after season, the Bills were winning in unprecedented fashion, going undefeated in the playoffs year after year for four consecutive seasons, but never winning the final game.  Bills fans were asking, “Can they win just one more game?” 

 

The Bills aren’t there yet.  They’re close, but the question still is “can they do more?”  During the off-season, Bills fans often answered that question with another question: “What personnel changes can the Bills make to get better?”  They put aside the comment that Sean McDermott made on more than one occasion to the effect that he was ready to play the 2021 season with the roster that didn’t go quite far enough in 2020.  In other words, he said it’s about the process, not about the players. 

 

And so it was that in the off-season, the Bills stayed true to their process and made about as few personnel changes as we’ve seen in decades.  They re-signed or extended a few key players, like Milano, Williams, and Feliciano, they unloaded one key player – John Brown – and replaced him with Emmanuel Sanders, who may be an upgrade for a year or two.   Other than that, the Bills signed the usual collection of free agents who have some potential to shore up the lines, help out the special teams, or complement the running game.  They look like good signings, but they weren’t the kind of acquisitions that generate headlines. 

 

After the initial rush to acquire players in free agency, the Bills conducted the draft with about as little fanfare as possible.  They didn’t trade a first-round pick for an emerging star, as they did last season to acquire Diggs.  They didn’t trade up to ***** a name player.  They chose solid football players, unproven but with upside.  Big linemen, a fast, small receiver, and a collection of defensive backs.  Some may contribute in 2021, some may emerge in another year or two, and some will not make it.  Is there an instant starter among the draftees?  The best prospects are Greg Rousseau, simply because he seems to be an unusual talent, or Boogie Basham, simply because he seems to bring all the fundamentals.  Spencer Brown, Jack Anderson, and Tommy Doyle all bring the kind of size and talent to the team that can make an impact but absent injuries, it’s a lot to expect that any of them can compete their way into a starting job as a rookie. 

 

It’s about the process.  It’s about everyone in the organization, particularly coaches and players, continuing to do all the things they learned last season and learning other things to make themselves better and make the team better.  With that as the objective, it’s about teaching everyone new to the team how to do what the Bills did in 2020 while also teaching them the things the veterans are learning for 2021.

 

The process is about competing, about knowing, as Jerry Hughes certainly knows, that his job is to teach all he can to Rousseau and Basham and Epenesa so that they can compete for and eventually take his job.  It’s about taking every rep in practice like it’s playoff preparation, knowing that constant commitment to competing on the field makes everyone stronger. 

 

Remarkably, Brandon Beane even went for competition at the one position where no one thought competition was possible – quarterback.  In Mitch Trubisky, Beane added a player who plays the same game Allen does – throw, run, attack the entire field, although Trubisky does none of it like Allen can.  Still, Trubisky was a number two pick overall, and he’s had plenty of moments where he’s looked like a viable starter.  In addition to creating something that at least looks like competition for Allen, the move was a brilliant upgrade at backup QB.  Trubisky clearly brings more physical talent to the team than Barkley offered, and he brings the experience that Fromm sorely lacks.  Trubisky is almost a dream backup in Buffalo, even if only for one season, as most observers suspect.  Trubisky will want to start, and there’s virtually no chance he will win a QB competition with Allen.  In the meantime, however, he will have given the Bills another year to decide how strongly they feel about Fromm as a backup. 

 

The process is about continuous improvement, about everyone being better at their job than a year ago.  Everyone.  It’s about Hyde and Poyer being a better tandem than they were in 2020.  It’s about Tre’Davious White being better.  It’s about Epenesa, Phillips, Oliver, Dawkins, Ford, Moss, Singletary raising the level of their games, and about becoming leaders on the team and not just prospects. 

 

Most of all, it’s about Josh Allen’s and Tremaine Edmunds’ improvement.  Allen and Edmunds have physical talents that make them capable of being truly transcendent players in the NFL, the kind of players who define the position for their era.  Allen showed in 2020 that he can be that kind of player.  Still, Josh Allen needs to be better in 2021.  Ironically for Allen, being better may mean doing less, at least in terms of stats.  Better for Allen is running less.  Better for Allen is reading defenses at another level, and making the best decisions – decisions that might pull his personal stats down a bit but push wins up a bit.   Better is by being an even better leader. 

 

Edmunds hasn’t had his breakout season, and the clock is running.  Having transcendent physical ability and determination isn’t enough unless it translates into on-field excellence.   This is a guy who, physically, could dominate play the way a Lawrence Taylor, a J.J. Watt, a Brian Urlacher, or a Luke Kuechly could.  To be dominant, Edmunds must raise his game another level, or two or three levels, and he and the Bills are looking for that kind of improvement.  

 

The upside on both sides of the ball is clear.   The defensive line is poised to be a force, with Star Lotulelei returning, Oliver and Phillips improving, Hughes, Addison, Epenesa, Rousseau, and Basham all contributing, and with the potential for one or another role player to emerge from camp.  Starting linebacking is fine for now, and could be outstanding if Edmunds takes that next step.  Behind them is some young and unproven talent.  And the defensive backfield is solid and has young talent like Dane Jackson, Jaquan Johnson, and Siran Neal continuing to grow into good depth. 

 

Offensive improvement starts with the line, where the entire unit returns, having learned the lessons of 2020 and prepared to improve, particularly in the running game.  It’s hard to ignore the talent across the front line, or their commitment to the game.  This is a group that WANTS to run the ball in 2021 and WANTS to protect Allen.  Cody Ford will return, intending to begin to make the contribution he’s capable of, and the three drafted rookies will come to camp intending to win starting jobs.   The offensive line should take a big step this season, and if one of the rookies should prove to be good enough and win a starting job, so much the better.

 

Singletary and Moss, of course, will be looking to redeem themselves, to show that the promise both have flashed can become a consistent on-field reality.  Matt Breida, Beane’s other great backup addition, has something to prove.  With improved offensive line play, at least one of the three should emerge is a true feature backup.  Two would be even better. 

 

Diggs and Beasley can be counted on being Diggs and Beasley.  Diggs will work to get better, and Beasley will be focused on football and not distracted by the COVID talk.  It’s hard to imagine Beasley being distracted in practice or the games.  Sanders is a bit of a risk, but he’s likely to be able flash some big play ability in a complementary role.  Gabriel Davis should only get better.  Isaiah McKenzie should continue to contribute, unless rookie Marquez Stevenson lights up training camp with unique skills that win him the role as return man and gadget player. 

 

Tight end is the only positional question that doesn’t have a good answer.  Maybe Knox can become truly consistent, catching the ball, blocking, and avoiding mistakes.  He has shown some big-play capability, but he hasn’t shown that he is the answer.   If somehow Knox can step up his play and become a consistent threat, his importance to the offense would exceed his actual stats. 

 

Will each and every prayer for improvement be answered?  No. It never works that way.  Some players simply plateau, and there are injuries.  Age takes it toll, sometimes unexpectedly.  But the process builds a stronger and stronger team, year after year, by challenging everyone to take steps forward, individually and as a team. 

 

If the process really works, the 2021 Bills could dominate the league, with the best QB leading the best offense and with a big, aggressive defense, that meshes youth and experience in a confusing, multi-faceted machine.  What about Kansas City?  Sure, they’ve got plenty of offense and a special defense, but the Bills have the potential to close the gaps, which aren’t big, on both sides of the ball and surpass the Chiefs.  The Bills could be that good.

 

Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane have said for years that their goal is to build a team that can compete consistently, year after year, for championships.   Last season, sooner than many people expected, myself included, they competed.  Lost, eventually, but competed.  In 2021, the Bills should be better. 

 

The process at work. 

 

[HOUSE]

I am thinking the running game will be critical this year. Can't afford a let down

[clayboy54]

Very well written piece, Shaw! Your perspective is pretty much right on target.

[Thurman#1]

Trying to figure out what you suggested they might do to a name player.

 

Very much on target. I was so shocked that they could and then that they would re-sign all of Milano, Daryl Williams and Feliciano. That made it a fine off-season for me.

 

I guess I'd disagree that Trubisky in any way creates competition. IMO he creates good 2nd string depth.

 

I also don't think it's fair to compare Tremaine Edmunds to Lawrence Taylor or JJ Watt. He doesn't have their physical talent. Edmunds is fast, and he's strong, but not as sudden as either of those guys and probably not as stronge either. There's a reason Edmunds was drafted 16th and Lawrence Taylor 2nd. They manifestly had different levels of physical talent ceiling than Edmunds does. Same with Kuechly, really. His 40 was a bit slower than Edmunds, but look at his 10 and 20 yard splits. He was more sudden while Edmunds has a higher top speed. Kuechly was also a lot stronger (27 reps vs. 19 for Tremaine).

 

Hopefully he can get to Kuechly territory if things go really well, but there's zero indication that he should ever be mentioned with Watt and Taylor. They were drafted earlier for a reason, Taylor in particular because he had sacks and INTs in college that were out of this world. They're QB attackers. As good as he was at everything, the reason Taylor is venerated is because he sacked and threatened QBs constantly, something Edmunds is never likely to do as an off-ball LB. Comparing him to those guys, outside maybe Kuechly, isn't reasonable. And like the others you mentioned, Kuechly was picked significantly earlier, 9th, and for good reason.

 

And while I'm hopeful as you are about Beasley, the guy has said he's willing to quit rather than obey the NFL regulations on this issue. Hopefully he was just blowing off steam, but there's a far wider range of possibilities for him this season than Bills fans seem willing to admit. He used to be my favorite Bill, particularly after I learned about the broken leg.

 

But otherwise I really agree with the thrust of your whole post. Continuity is a big part of the process and we've got a ton of that this year.

Edited July 19, 2021 by Thurman#1

[scuba guy]

Shaw,as always just what the Dr order.

 

Great read really as always nothing much to add.

 

As I sit here in Clayton NY at grasses point state park listening to all the amateur fire starters chop wood for chindeling I always  wonder go get some sticks.

 

Nope men just like bashing wood 

 

Get it 😆

[TroutDog]

8 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Trying to figure out what you suggested they might do to a name player.

Same here. 
 

I agree on all points in the piece…well written. Thank you Shaw.  

[Blainorama5]

Thanks for your insight as always.  Love getting your well balanced and sane take on the state of the Bills.

[Niagara Bill]

Nice writing! Appreciate the clear thoughts. I don't agree with the Edmunds part. He does not need to be the guy to be our Watt, Taylor, Erlanger etc. 

That pressure on him is not necessary. He needs to be real good for sure. But I agree we need someone to be that dominant player....don't care who, Milano, Rousseau, Basham, Oliver, or Edmunds. We do lack that Bruce Smith player....

 

Thanks for the piece.

[SoCal Deek]

Well written summary Shaw. So in a few weeks we’re all going to learn whether standing Pat will be good enough. The Bills front office certainly seems to think so. I cannot recall a less dramatic off season, and a less inspiring draft. McBeane seem to know what they’re doing so I’m going to Trust the Process. I pray they’re right.

[Shaw66]

Sorry about the name player thing.  Plug in "grab" and you will get the meaning. I used a word that some people might use to refer to, uh, well, use your imagination. 

[Don Otreply]

Nice! Excellent write up, Shaw66,  I certainly could not have said it better, I do believe that the “process “ is working, and we will do even better this season. 
 

Go Bills!!!

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

As training camp approaches, there’s not much to say about a team that went 13-3 with two playoff wins last season.   Not much to say except to ask, “Can they do more this season?”

 

It’s been a long time since Bills fans have been asking that question about their team – almost 30 years.  Back then, season after season, the Bills were winning in unprecedented fashion, going undefeated in the playoffs year after year for four consecutive seasons, but never winning the final game.  Bills fans were asking, “Can they win just one more game?” 

 

The Bills aren’t there yet.  They’re close, but the question still is “can they do more?”  During the off-season, Bills fans often answered that question with another question: “What personnel changes can the Bills make to get better?”  They put aside the comment that Sean McDermott made on more than one occasion to the effect that he was ready to play the 2021 season with the roster that didn’t go quite far enough in 2020.  In other words, he said it’s about the process, not about the players. 

 

And so it was that in the off-season, the Bills stayed true to their process and made about as few personnel changes as we’ve seen in decades.  They re-signed or extended a few key players, like Milano, Williams, and Feliciano, they unloaded one key player – John Brown – and replaced him with Emmanuel Sanders, who may be an upgrade for a year or two.   Other than that, the Bills signed the usual collection of free agents who have some potential to shore up the lines, help out the special teams, or complement the running game.  They look like good signings, but they weren’t the kind of acquisitions that generate headlines. 

 

After the initial rush to acquire players in free agency, the Bills conducted the draft with about as little fanfare as possible.  They didn’t trade a first-round pick for an emerging star, as they did last season to acquire Diggs.  They didn’t trade up to ***** a name player.  They chose solid football players, unproven but with upside.  Big linemen, a fast, small receiver, and a collection of defensive backs.  Some may contribute in 2021, some may emerge in another year or two, and some will not make it.  Is there an instant starter among the draftees?  The best prospects are Greg Rousseau, simply because he seems to be an unusual talent, or Boogie Basham, simply because he seems to bring all the fundamentals.  Spencer Brown, Jack Anderson, and Tommy Doyle all bring the kind of size and talent to the team that can make an impact but absent injuries, it’s a lot to expect that any of them can compete their way into a starting job as a rookie. 

 

It’s about the process.  It’s about everyone in the organization, particularly coaches and players, continuing to do all the things they learned last season and learning other things to make themselves better and make the team better.  With that as the objective, it’s about teaching everyone new to the team how to do what the Bills did in 2020 while also teaching them the things the veterans are learning for 2021.

 

The process is about competing, about knowing, as Jerry Hughes certainly knows, that his job is to teach all he can to Rousseau and Basham and Epenesa so that they can compete for and eventually take his job.  It’s about taking every rep in practice like it’s playoff preparation, knowing that constant commitment to competing on the field makes everyone stronger. 

 

Remarkably, Brandon Beane even went for competition at the one position where no one thought competition was possible – quarterback.  In Mitch Trubisky, Beane added a player who plays the same game Allen does – throw, run, attack the entire field, although Trubisky does none of it like Allen can.  Still, Trubisky was a number two pick overall, and he’s had plenty of moments where he’s looked like a viable starter.  In addition to creating something that at least looks like competition for Allen, the move was a brilliant upgrade at backup QB.  Trubisky clearly brings more physical talent to the team than Barkley offered, and he brings the experience that Fromm sorely lacks.  Trubisky is almost a dream backup in Buffalo, even if only for one season, as most observers suspect.  Trubisky will want to start, and there’s virtually no chance he will win a QB competition with Allen.  In the meantime, however, he will have given the Bills another year to decide how strongly they feel about Fromm as a backup. 

 

The process is about continuous improvement, about everyone being better at their job than a year ago.  Everyone.  It’s about Hyde and Poyer being a better tandem than they were in 2020.  It’s about Tre’Davious White being better.  It’s about Epenesa, Phillips, Oliver, Dawkins, Ford, Moss, Singletary raising the level of their games, and about becoming leaders on the team and not just prospects. 

 

Most of all, it’s about Josh Allen’s and Tremaine Edmunds’ improvement.  Allen and Edmunds have physical talents that make them capable of being truly transcendent players in the NFL, the kind of players who define the position for their era.  Allen showed in 2020 that he can be that kind of player.  Still, Josh Allen needs to be better in 2021.  Ironically for Allen, being better may mean doing less, at least in terms of stats.  Better for Allen is running less.  Better for Allen is reading defenses at another level, and making the best decisions – decisions that might pull his personal stats down a bit but push wins up a bit.   Better is by being an even better leader. 

 

Edmunds hasn’t had his breakout season, and the clock is running.  Having transcendent physical ability and determination isn’t enough unless it translates into on-field excellence.   This is a guy who, physically, could dominate play the way a Lawrence Taylor, a J.J. Watt, a Brian Urlacher, or a Luke Kuechly could.  To be dominant, Edmunds must raise his game another level, or two or three levels, and he and the Bills are looking for that kind of improvement.  

 

The upside on both sides of the ball is clear.   The defensive line is poised to be a force, with Star Lotulelei returning, Oliver and Phillips improving, Hughes, Addison, Epenesa, Rousseau, and Basham all contributing, and with the potential for one or another role player to emerge from camp.  Starting linebacking is fine for now, and could be outstanding if Edmunds takes that next step.  Behind them is some young and unproven talent.  And the defensive backfield is solid and has young talent like Dane Jackson, Jaquan Johnson, and Siran Neal continuing to grow into good depth. 

 

Offensive improvement starts with the line, where the entire unit returns, having learned the lessons of 2020 and prepared to improve, particularly in the running game.  It’s hard to ignore the talent across the front line, or their commitment to the game.  This is a group that WANTS to run the ball in 2021 and WANTS to protect Allen.  Cody Ford will return, intending to begin to make the contribution he’s capable of, and the three drafted rookies will come to camp intending to win starting jobs.   The offensive line should take a big step this season, and if one of the rookies should prove to be good enough and win a starting job, so much the better.

 

Singletary and Moss, of course, will be looking to redeem themselves, to show that the promise both have flashed can become a consistent on-field reality.  Matt Breida, Beane’s other great backup addition, has something to prove.  With improved offensive line play, at least one of the three should emerge is a true feature backup.  Two would be even better. 

 

Diggs and Beasley can be counted on being Diggs and Beasley.  Diggs will work to get better, and Beasley will be focused on football and not distracted by the COVID talk.  It’s hard to imagine Beasley being distracted in practice or the games.  Sanders is a bit of a risk, but he’s likely to be able flash some big play ability in a complementary role.  Gabriel Davis should only get better.  Isaiah McKenzie should continue to contribute, unless rookie Marquez Stevenson lights up training camp with unique skills that win him the role as return man and gadget player. 

 

Tight end is the only positional question that doesn’t have a good answer.  Maybe Knox can become truly consistent, catching the ball, blocking, and avoiding mistakes.  He has shown some big-play capability, but he hasn’t shown that he is the answer.   If somehow Knox can step up his play and become a consistent threat, his importance to the offense would exceed his actual stats. 

 

Will each and every prayer for improvement be answered?  No. It never works that way.  Some players simply plateau, and there are injuries.  Age takes it toll, sometimes unexpectedly.  But the process builds a stronger and stronger team, year after year, by challenging everyone to take steps forward, individually and as a team. 

 

If the process really works, the 2021 Bills could dominate the league, with the best QB leading the best offense and with a big, aggressive defense, that meshes youth and experience in a confusing, multi-faceted machine.  What about Kansas City?  Sure, they’ve got plenty of offense and a special defense, but the Bills have the potential to close the gaps, which aren’t big, on both sides of the ball and surpass the Chiefs.  The Bills could be that good.

 

Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane have said for years that their goal is to build a team that can compete consistently, year after year, for championships.   Last season, sooner than many people expected, myself included, they competed.  Lost, eventually, but competed.  In 2021, the Bills should be better. 

 

The process at work. 

 

Awesome write up. I’ve been reading the Rockpile review for over 10 years. When I see, I click.

FYI, I think Hollister could prove to be a decent answer to TE this year. I just have a gut feeling without anything to really back it up.

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Trying to figure out what you suggested they might do to a name player.

 

Very much on target. I was so shocked that they could and then that they would re-sign all of Milano, Daryl Williams and Feliciano. That made it a fine off-season for me.

 

I guess I'd disagree that Trubisky in any way creates competition. IMO he creates good 2nd string depth.

 

I also don't think it's fair to compare Tremaine Edmunds to Lawrence Taylor or JJ Watt. He doesn't have their physical talent. Edmunds is fast, and he's strong, but not as sudden as either of those guys and probably not as stronge either. There's a reason Edmunds was drafted 16th and Lawrence Taylor 2nd. They manifestly had different levels of physical talent ceiling than Edmunds does. Same with Kuechly, really. His 40 was a bit slower than Edmunds, but look at his 10 and 20 yard splits. He was more sudden while Edmunds has a higher top speed. Kuechly was also a lot stronger (27 reps vs. 19 for Tremaine).

 

Hopefully he can get to Kuechly territory if things go really well, but there's zero indication that he should ever be mentioned with Watt and Taylor. They were drafted earlier for a reason, Taylor in particular because he had sacks and INTs in college that were out of this world. They're QB attackers. As good as he was at everything, the reason Taylor is venerated is because he sacked and threatened QBs constantly, something Edmunds is never likely to do as an off-ball LB. Comparing him to those guys, outside maybe Kuechly, isn't reasonable. And like the others you mentioned, Kuechly was picked significantly earlier, 9th, and for good reason.

 

And while I'm hopeful as you are about Beasley, the guy has said he's willing to quit rather than obey the NFL regulations on this issue. Hopefully he was just blowing off steam, but there's a far wider range of possibilities for him this season than Bills fans seem willing to admit. He used to be my favorite Bill, particularly after I learned about the broken leg.

 

But otherwise I really agree with the thrust of your whole post. Continuity is a big part of the process and we've got a ton of that this year.

Hi Thurm - thanks for your usual thoughtful comments.  

 

I didn't know exactly how to word the Trubisky competition thing.  I don't think, and I thought I was clear, that Trubisky has a snowball's chance of being the starting QB.  However, he's a serious NFL-level talent, and I'm quite sure there will be times in camp when he makes plays that turn heads.   He'll make some excellent escapes from the pocket, and he'll make some big-time throws.   Allen will see those, and he'll know that this is a different guy than Barkley or Fromm.  And in the back of his head, he may feel a little push.  Up until now, the only competition Allen had was in his head - trying imagine how Mahomes or Rodgers would do something if they were in camp.  This summer he's going to have a real NFL starter standing next to him, with a real NFL arm, and Allen won't have to imagine anything.   He'll know that his job is to be better than the guy standing right there.  

 

As for Edmunds, I don't disagree with what you say.  And Niagara Bill mischaracterized what I said.  I didn't say that the Bills need Edmunds to be a superstar for the Bills to succeed.  I was writing about continuous improvement, the methodology McDermott uses, and I was commenting on the guys whose improvement is most important.   

 

Your right that coming out of college Edmunds wasn't a Taylor or a Watt or an Urlacher or a Kuechly.   He was highly regarded, but top 10 in the draft is the real indication that the coaches and scouts think the guy is special.  Teams didn't value Edmunds that highly.  However, his size and speed make him special in the defense that McDermott likes to play.  He has a chance to be great, because he has those attributes and he plays a position where he can be a dominant force.   He can be to the defense what Allen is to the offense, but not in exactly the same way.   Edmunds has going to take the team on his back and carry them to victory.  But if he plays the way he could play, he will make almost every other guy on the defense better.  The better Edmunds plays, the better all the linebackers and DBs will be.  Even the dline will be better, if they know have a human vacuum cleaner back there, a guy who stops the ball carrier the line misses.  Like, as you say, Keuchly.

 

McDermott is about continuous improvement, and Edmunds gets no pass on that.  The Bills coaches no doubt are going to be setting ambitious goals for Edmunds, ambitious because he's good enough to accomplish them.  

 

So as I said, I can agree that he may never be dominant like those others, but I don't think it's unreasonable for the Bills to expect him to become a dominant playmaker in the middle of the defense.  

 

I'm just guessing, but I think many of us have misjudged what the Beasley thing was and is all about.  As time has gone by, and as no other shoes have dropped, I'm increasingly getting the impression that Beasley has strong feelings about what people can tell him to do, and he got frustrated with what he was hearing.  He didn't say he would quit under the current rules, but he said he had made enough money that he could afford to quit - those are two different things.  He wasn't announcing that there was a rule that he would not comply with.  I think it was all more general than that.  And  I think it's less of a deal when I see that there are two teams with less than 50% vaccinated (not the Bills), and it sounds like plenty of others are under 75%.  So, the Bills aren't going to be operating under tougher restrictions than many other teams, and there will be pressure on the league and the union for those restrictions to be eased.  I doubt under those circumstances that Beasley is going to be so unhappy that he will retire, or that any of this will be a distraction.  McDermott managed COVID last season; this season will be easier, not tougher.    Do I prefer that players just comply and keep their mouths shut about this?   Yes, because it's simpler if everyone is vaccinated and the press eats this stuff up, but McDermott is going to support his player, his player will feel the support and see that he can fit into the Bills' plans without being asked to do anything significant he doesn't want.

 

Anyway, thanks for your comments. 

Edited July 19, 2021 by Shaw66

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

Well written summary Shaw. So in a few weeks we’re all going to learn whether standing Pat will be good enough. The Bills front office certainly seems to think so. I cannot recall a less dramatic off season, and a less inspiring draft. McBeane seem to know what they’re doing so I’m going to Trust the Process. I pray they’re right.

Yeah, Deek, I hear you.   After years and years of excitement about a Mario, a Dareus, a Spiller, and the endless debates about Taylor and EJ and Fitz, this off-season was like a balloon that never inflated enough to have the air let out of it.  

 

But there was an important point to what I wrote, a point I talk about a lot.   I think that in the NFL, coaching is more important than talent, and I think the Bills 2021 off-season demonstrates the McDermott and Beane think so, too.  Beane was all about improving talent wherever he could, but not because the talent he already had wasn't good enough.  He wasn't filling holes, and he wasn't solving problems for McDermott.   The league creates opportunities to get better players, and Beane certainly was going to take advantage of the opportunity.  So he did, with some nice but unspectacular free agent deals, and by drafting players with upside when his turn came.  

 

The off-season tells us that McDermott and Beane didn't think they needed to add a special talent to win.  They didn't need to trade again to get someone like Diggs.  They didn't need to trade up in the draft.  

 

Instead, Beane and McDermott believe in the process, in the continuous improvement of the individual players and the team.  They knew the day after the loss to KC that they would be better in 2021, better in important ways.   The new talent Beane was able to bring in just helps.

[Paul Costa]

Spot on. Hard to believe that McDermott will let the team regress. We should be a really good football team this year. Seems like everyone is ready for season to start. 

[billybrew1]

6 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

As training camp approaches, there’s not much to say about a team that went 13-3 with two playoff wins last season.   Not much to say except to ask, “Can they do more this season?”

 

It’s been a long time since Bills fans have been asking that question about their team – almost 30 years.  Back then, season after season, the Bills were winning in unprecedented fashion, going undefeated in the playoffs year after year for four consecutive seasons, but never winning the final game.  Bills fans were asking, “Can they win just one more game?” 

 

The Bills aren’t there yet.  They’re close, but the question still is “can they do more?”  During the off-season, Bills fans often answered that question with another question: “What personnel changes can the Bills make to get better?”  They put aside the comment that Sean McDermott made on more than one occasion to the effect that he was ready to play the 2021 season with the roster that didn’t go quite far enough in 2020.  In other words, he said it’s about the process, not about the players. 

 

And so it was that in the off-season, the Bills stayed true to their process and made about as few personnel changes as we’ve seen in decades.  They re-signed or extended a few key players, like Milano, Williams, and Feliciano, they unloaded one key player – John Brown – and replaced him with Emmanuel Sanders, who may be an upgrade for a year or two.   Other than that, the Bills signed the usual collection of free agents who have some potential to shore up the lines, help out the special teams, or complement the running game.  They look like good signings, but they weren’t the kind of acquisitions that generate headlines. 

 

After the initial rush to acquire players in free agency, the Bills conducted the draft with about as little fanfare as possible.  They didn’t trade a first-round pick for an emerging star, as they did last season to acquire Diggs.  They didn’t trade up to ***** a name player.  They chose solid football players, unproven but with upside.  Big linemen, a fast, small receiver, and a collection of defensive backs.  Some may contribute in 2021, some may emerge in another year or two, and some will not make it.  Is there an instant starter among the draftees?  The best prospects are Greg Rousseau, simply because he seems to be an unusual talent, or Boogie Basham, simply because he seems to bring all the fundamentals.  Spencer Brown, Jack Anderson, and Tommy Doyle all bring the kind of size and talent to the team that can make an impact but absent injuries, it’s a lot to expect that any of them can compete their way into a starting job as a rookie. 

 

It’s about the process.  It’s about everyone in the organization, particularly coaches and players, continuing to do all the things they learned last season and learning other things to make themselves better and make the team better.  With that as the objective, it’s about teaching everyone new to the team how to do what the Bills did in 2020 while also teaching them the things the veterans are learning for 2021.

 

The process is about competing, about knowing, as Jerry Hughes certainly knows, that his job is to teach all he can to Rousseau and Basham and Epenesa so that they can compete for and eventually take his job.  It’s about taking every rep in practice like it’s playoff preparation, knowing that constant commitment to competing on the field makes everyone stronger. 

 

Remarkably, Brandon Beane even went for competition at the one position where no one thought competition was possible – quarterback.  In Mitch Trubisky, Beane added a player who plays the same game Allen does – throw, run, attack the entire field, although Trubisky does none of it like Allen can.  Still, Trubisky was a number two pick overall, and he’s had plenty of moments where he’s looked like a viable starter.  In addition to creating something that at least looks like competition for Allen, the move was a brilliant upgrade at backup QB.  Trubisky clearly brings more physical talent to the team than Barkley offered, and he brings the experience that Fromm sorely lacks.  Trubisky is almost a dream backup in Buffalo, even if only for one season, as most observers suspect.  Trubisky will want to start, and there’s virtually no chance he will win a QB competition with Allen.  In the meantime, however, he will have given the Bills another year to decide how strongly they feel about Fromm as a backup. 

 

The process is about continuous improvement, about everyone being better at their job than a year ago.  Everyone.  It’s about Hyde and Poyer being a better tandem than they were in 2020.  It’s about Tre’Davious White being better.  It’s about Epenesa, Phillips, Oliver, Dawkins, Ford, Moss, Singletary raising the level of their games, and about becoming leaders on the team and not just prospects. 

 

Most of all, it’s about Josh Allen’s and Tremaine Edmunds’ improvement.  Allen and Edmunds have physical talents that make them capable of being truly transcendent players in the NFL, the kind of players who define the position for their era.  Allen showed in 2020 that he can be that kind of player.  Still, Josh Allen needs to be better in 2021.  Ironically for Allen, being better may mean doing less, at least in terms of stats.  Better for Allen is running less.  Better for Allen is reading defenses at another level, and making the best decisions – decisions that might pull his personal stats down a bit but push wins up a bit.   Better is by being an even better leader. 

 

Edmunds hasn’t had his breakout season, and the clock is running.  Having transcendent physical ability and determination isn’t enough unless it translates into on-field excellence.   This is a guy who, physically, could dominate play the way a Lawrence Taylor, a J.J. Watt, a Brian Urlacher, or a Luke Kuechly could.  To be dominant, Edmunds must raise his game another level, or two or three levels, and he and the Bills are looking for that kind of improvement.  

 

The upside on both sides of the ball is clear.   The defensive line is poised to be a force, with Star Lotulelei returning, Oliver and Phillips improving, Hughes, Addison, Epenesa, Rousseau, and Basham all contributing, and with the potential for one or another role player to emerge from camp.  Starting linebacking is fine for now, and could be outstanding if Edmunds takes that next step.  Behind them is some young and unproven talent.  And the defensive backfield is solid and has young talent like Dane Jackson, Jaquan Johnson, and Siran Neal continuing to grow into good depth. 

 

Offensive improvement starts with the line, where the entire unit returns, having learned the lessons of 2020 and prepared to improve, particularly in the running game.  It’s hard to ignore the talent across the front line, or their commitment to the game.  This is a group that WANTS to run the ball in 2021 and WANTS to protect Allen.  Cody Ford will return, intending to begin to make the contribution he’s capable of, and the three drafted rookies will come to camp intending to win starting jobs.   The offensive line should take a big step this season, and if one of the rookies should prove to be good enough and win a starting job, so much the better.

 

Singletary and Moss, of course, will be looking to redeem themselves, to show that the promise both have flashed can become a consistent on-field reality.  Matt Breida, Beane’s other great backup addition, has something to prove.  With improved offensive line play, at least one of the three should emerge is a true feature backup.  Two would be even better. 

 

Diggs and Beasley can be counted on being Diggs and Beasley.  Diggs will work to get better, and Beasley will be focused on football and not distracted by the COVID talk.  It’s hard to imagine Beasley being distracted in practice or the games.  Sanders is a bit of a risk, but he’s likely to be able flash some big play ability in a complementary role.  Gabriel Davis should only get better.  Isaiah McKenzie should continue to contribute, unless rookie Marquez Stevenson lights up training camp with unique skills that win him the role as return man and gadget player. 

 

Tight end is the only positional question that doesn’t have a good answer.  Maybe Knox can become truly consistent, catching the ball, blocking, and avoiding mistakes.  He has shown some big-play capability, but he hasn’t shown that he is the answer.   If somehow Knox can step up his play and become a consistent threat, his importance to the offense would exceed his actual stats. 

 

Will each and every prayer for improvement be answered?  No. It never works that way.  Some players simply plateau, and there are injuries.  Age takes it toll, sometimes unexpectedly.  But the process builds a stronger and stronger team, year after year, by challenging everyone to take steps forward, individually and as a team. 

 

If the process really works, the 2021 Bills could dominate the league, with the best QB leading the best offense and with a big, aggressive defense, that meshes youth and experience in a confusing, multi-faceted machine.  What about Kansas City?  Sure, they’ve got plenty of offense and a special defense, but the Bills have the potential to close the gaps, which aren’t big, on both sides of the ball and surpass the Chiefs.  The Bills could be that good.

 

Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane have said for years that their goal is to build a team that can compete consistently, year after year, for championships.   Last season, sooner than many people expected, myself included, they competed.  Lost, eventually, but competed.  In 2021, the Bills should be better. 

 

The process at work. 

 

Having said all that, it is my opinion that the Bills clearly show that they are going to win the SB next season when old guys, Star, Jerry And Mario along with others come off the books allowing the Bills to bring in another impact player.

Not saying the Bills can't win it all this year, but it looks to me that we could show some pretty high cards next season.

[Shaw66]

20 minutes ago, billybrew1 said:

Having said all that, it is my opinion that the Bills clearly show that they are going to win the SB next season when old guys, Star, Jerry And Mario along with others come off the books allowing the Bills to bring in another impact player.

Not saying the Bills can't win it all this year, but it looks to me that we could show some pretty high cards next season.

Contrary to what I suggest, but I think there's some truth in what you say.   Bills probably already have the two replacement DEs, so losing three and needing to replace only one means there should indeed be opportunities to acquire another impact player.   I will say, however, that I don't think that's how McBeane plan.  Their plan is not to get good when they can get the right player.  The plan is to get good now, stay good, and get better year after year with learning and acquisitions in the ordinary course.

[billybrew1]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Contrary to what I suggest, but I think there's some truth in what you say.   Bills probably already have the two replacement DEs, so losing three and needing to replace only one means there should indeed be opportunities to acquire another impact player.   I will say, however, that I don't think that's how McBeane plan.  Their plan is not to get good when they can get the right player.  The plan is to get good now, stay good, and get better year after year with learning and acquisitions in the ordinary course.

It depends on what they do next season. I'm hoping (because I really want that SB victory) that we spend big on an impact player at the expense of the future to really ensure a win (as much as they can anyway).

But perhaps we will have the dough w/o having to go that much over the cap? 

Pat any rate, we sure do have a pretty good team and a great O and QB. I sure hope we hit the playoffs healthy this year to give JA a fair shot at winning vs. KC. With the top four WRs healthy, and the OL, Josh should be pretty damn awesome.

 

Go Bills!

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Hi Thurm - thanks for your usual thoughtful comments.  

 

I didn't know exactly how to word the Trubisky competition thing.  I don't think, and I thought I was clear, that Trubisky has a snowball's chance of being the starting QB.  However, he's a serious NFL-level talent, and I'm quite sure there will be times in camp when he makes plays that turn heads.   He'll make some excellent escapes from the pocket, and he'll make some big-time throws.   Allen will see those, and he'll know that this is a different guy than Barkley or Fromm.  And in the back of his head, he may feel a little push.  Up until now, the only competition Allen had was in his head - trying imagine how Mahomes or Rodgers would do something if they were in camp.  This summer he's going to have a real NFL starter standing next to him, with a real NFL arm, and Allen won't have to imagine anything.   He'll know that his job is to be better than the guy standing right there.  

 

As for Edmunds, I don't disagree with what you say.  And Niagara Bill mischaracterized what I said.  I didn't say that the Bills need Edmunds to be a superstar for the Bills to succeed.  I was writing about continuous improvement, the methodology McDermott uses, and I was commenting on the guys whose improvement is most important.   

 

Your right that coming out of college Edmunds wasn't a Taylor or a Watt or an Urlacher or a Kuechly.   He was highly regarded, but top 10 in the draft is the real indication that the coaches and scouts think the guy is special.  Teams didn't value Edmunds that highly.  However, his size and speed make him special in the defense that McDermott likes to play.  He has a chance to be great, because he has those attributes and he plays a position where he can be a dominant force.   He can be to the defense what Allen is to the offense, but not in exactly the same way.   Edmunds has going to take the team on his back and carry them to victory.  But if he plays the way he could play, he will make almost every other guy on the defense better.  The better Edmunds plays, the better all the linebackers and DBs will be.  Even the dline will be better, if they know have a human vacuum cleaner back there, a guy who stops the ball carrier the line misses.  Like, as you say, Keuchly.

 

McDermott is about continuous improvement, and Edmunds gets no pass on that.  The Bills coaches no doubt are going to be setting ambitious goals for Edmunds, ambitious because he's good enough to accomplish them.  

 

So as I said, I can agree that he may never be dominant like those others, but I don't think it's unreasonable for the Bills to expect him to become a dominant playmaker in the middle of the defense.  

 

I'm just guessing, but I think many of us have misjudged what the Beasley thing was and is all about.  As time has gone by, and as no other shoes have dropped, I'm increasingly getting the impression that Beasley has strong feelings about what people can tell him to do, and he got frustrated with what he was hearing.  He didn't say he would quit under the current rules, but he said he had made enough money that he could afford to quit - those are two different things.  He wasn't announcing that there was a rule that he would not comply with.  I think it was all more general than that.  And  I think it's less of a deal when I see that there are two teams with less than 50% vaccinated (not the Bills), and it sounds like plenty of others are under 75%.  So, the Bills aren't going to be operating under tougher restrictions than many other teams, and there will be pressure on the league and the union for those restrictions to be eased.  I doubt under those circumstances that Beasley is going to be so unhappy that he will retire, or that any of this will be a distraction.  McDermott managed COVID last season; this season will be easier, not tougher.    Do I prefer that players just comply and keep their mouths shut about this?   Yes, because it's simpler if everyone is vaccinated and the press eats this stuff up, but McDermott is going to support his player, his player will feel the support and see that he can fit into the Bills' plans without being asked to do anything significant he doesn't want.

 

Anyway, thanks for your comments. 

 

 

I see. Except for the Beasley stuff, what you say here makes sense to me.

 

Edmunds absolutely needs to be making continuous improvement, as do they all. That's what you said, and it totally hits the nail on the head. I'm not convinced they expect him to put this team on his back. My feeling is that you're right when you say they expect him to make others better around him, particularly as signal caller and an up-the-middle guy on this defense. But "carry the team to victory"? I don't see them expecting that. I think you're right that they hope to see him become dominant at his position. He really does have quite a bit of achievable improvement available to him, even though he's already playing very well.

 

But to me, this team is about a system in which they want everyone to play their part as well as they possibly can. I don't see anyone on this D putting anyone on their back and carrying them. On offense, a truly great QB can do that. On this D I don't see anyone doing that unless they can somehow get someone to rush the passer at an extremely high level.

 

We're probably saying the same things here, using different words. I really am looking forward to seeing the defense this year. Healthy and with Star and a couple of rookie stud pass rushers filtering in to play their parts, IMO things look really good.

 

As for Beasley, though, he's said, "If I'm forced into retirement, so be it." What's he talking about there? It's absolutely clear they aren't forcing anyone to retire because they're not vaccinated. So it looks to me like he's saying there may be some things they require of him as an unvaccinated person that he wouldn't be willing to do, that he'd rather retire than follow some of those regulations.

 

Hope I'm wrong and you're right. It certainly could be. But he's said that he talked to the NFLPA and that, "From what I'm told these are guidelines for preseason and it's nothing final."

 

So what if those requirements that he doesn't accept do become final? Or if the regulations for the season turn out to be the same as the ones for the preseason? What does he do?

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/31660735/buffalo-bills-wr-cole-beasley-addresses-vaccination-concerns-nflpa

 

I don't think we know.

 

 

 

 

 

Oh, and you were using a synonym of "grab," hunh? Got it. Took me a minute or so, though.

 

 

 

Edited July 19, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, billybrew1 said:

Having said all that, it is my opinion that the Bills clearly show that they are going to win the SB next season when old guys, Star, Jerry And Mario along with others come off the books allowing the Bills to bring in another impact player.

Not saying the Bills can't win it all this year, but it looks to me that we could show some pretty high cards next season.

 

 

Thing is, there's no particular reason to think Star is going anywhere next year. We have nobody to take his place. Bringing in an FA would cost as much as Star or more, for probably a lower level of play. Drafting a replacement and this regime doesn't generally play rookie draftees much, particularly early in the year.

 

Addison's likely to be gone, but they won't save a penny. His contract ends this year except for $2M in dead cap next year. Same for Hughes He might not be here but we won't save any cap.

 

Next year, with the current guesstimate of a cap, we have $1,563,548 available under the cap as calculated right now (Spotrac). Even assuming Star, Mario and Jerry are all gone next year that would raise our available cap money all the way up to about $4M. I don't see that bringing in another impact player.

 

We'll cut some guys and re-negotiate and the cap will probably be a bit higher than Spotrac is guessing. But we aren't going to be rolling in it.