Orlando Buffalo Posted July 17, 2021 Posted July 17, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Governor said: Hillary had a 1 point lead nationally heading into Election Day. Team Trump knew this one was over by 10am on Election Day. They saw that turnout wasn’t high enough in Pennsylvania. Can you show me the 1%? She was 70+% to win, favored in several states she was beaten badly, and only a few had within the margin of error, which means they suck at their job. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-forecast Edited July 17, 2021 by Buffalo Timmy
All_Pro_Bills Posted July 17, 2021 Posted July 17, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said: Elizabeth Warren, Amy Kloboucher and other prominent dens express serious & significant concern about election security, it’s news. No hand wringing about the death of democracy, the chilling effect of a political leaders words on the ability to trust election officials. 11 months later, the same sentiment is echoed by the other party and its reported as the most egregious affront to humanity since New Coke. The only difference is the concern that Donald Trump might continue to upset the apple cart of painfully entrenched ruling class. I think a lot of posters such as yourself understand the point I was attempting to make. But some do not and they go to the usual place with the argument. Which disappoints me. But my insight applies to almost everything we hear coming out of the government or the media today. My point is not to express concerns about who won or who lost the election. Nor to it to express my viewpoints on whether or not the election was fair. Or is it about being a supporter or detractor of Trump. Or to judge the claims on threats to democracy. My point is to call out BS when I see BS. And my alarm at how easy people accept statements of political and media actors that are unprovable and unsupported by any solid evidence. Transforming subjective opinion to truth and fact without the necessary facts or truth to back it up. And there are a lot of ridiculous statements and assertions made by a lot of politicians and people in the media that is plain BS. Statements like this was "the most secure election in history". There is simply no way anyone can prove this to be true or false given 200+ years of history, the number of Presidential elections, and the information available to verify this claim. As I said earlier in order to lie you first need to know the truth. Nobody can possibly know the truth about such a statement or create a forensic evidence trail to back it up. Its a belief, pure and simple. And perhaps an uninformed belief too. Ultimately the problem is we are in short supply of critical thinking across the entire social and political spectrum and that shortage allows these idiots to express these outlandish views and statements. And go their merry way unchallenged. Personally, over time, I have developed a quite cynical attitude toward the government and the media. My base assumption is they lie about whatever they have to and make crap up to support everything else when the need arises. Good or bad it a view defined by observation of their behavior. And like somebody from Missouri I will ask "show me". Edited July 17, 2021 by All_Pro_Bills 3 3
Frat-Train Posted July 17, 2021 Posted July 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said: I think a lot of posters such as yourself understand the point I was attempting to make. But some do not and they go to the usual place with the argument. Which disappoints me. But my insight applies to almost everything we hear coming out of the government or the media today. My point is not to express concerns about who won or who lost the election. Nor to it to express my viewpoints on whether or not the election was fair. Or is it about being a supporter or detractor of Trump. Or to judge the claims on threats to democracy. My point is to call out BS when I see BS. And my alarm at how easy people accept statements of political and media actors that are unprovable and unsupported by any solid evidence. Transforming subjective opinion to truth and fact without the necessary facts or truth to back it up. And there are a lot of ridiculous statements and assertions made by a lot of politicians and people in the media that is plain BS. Statements like this was "the most secure election in history". There is simply no way anyone can prove this to be true or false given 200+ years of history, the number of Presidential elections, and the information available to verify this claim. As I said earlier in order to lie you first need to know the truth. Nobody can possibly know the truth about such a statement or create a forensic evidence trail to back it up. Its a belief, pure and simple. And perhaps an uninformed belief too. Ultimately the problem is we are in short supply of critical thinking across the entire social and political spectrum and that shortage allows these idiots to express these outlandish views and statements. And go their merry way unchallenged. Personally, over time, I have developed a quite cynical attitude toward the government and the media. My base assumption is they lie about everything. Good or bad it a view defined by observation of their behavior. And like somebody from Missouri I will ask "show me". It’s an amazing thing, taking that stance. This was the right way of thinking in America, just 20 years ago. Everything that’s transpired since 2016 is just alarming. Not just Trump being elected, but the response to it (which is still being pushed by the same familiar faces). We can blame Republicans and/or Democrats for arriving here, though when you look around the field, not one person is owning what they’ve contributed to this sad state. And we’re ALL guilty in some form. But, I think you’ve got the secrete sauce, in your statement. Trust nothing sponsored by media, Hollywood and politicians and do YOUR OWN due diligence, which includes thinking passed our safety places. That means keeping an opened mind to everything, which is what the majority refuses to do right now. And most importantly, within this new season of accepted bullying (if the cause is deemed worthy) don’t let the people in your party, family or circle bully you into being as gullible as they choose to be. This is something that should truly surpass party perspectives. We’re handing a dangerous amount of hurt to our children with all of this nonsense and game playing. 3 1
leh-nerd skin-erd Posted July 17, 2021 Posted July 17, 2021 28 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said: I think a lot of posters such as yourself understand the point I was attempting to make. But some do not and they go to the usual place with the argument. Which disappoints me. But my insight applies to almost everything we hear coming out of the government or the media today. My point is not to express concerns about who won or who lost the election. Nor to it to express my viewpoints on whether or not the election was fair. Or is it about being a supporter or detractor of Trump. Or to judge the claims on threats to democracy. My point is to call out BS when I see BS. And my alarm at how easy people accept statements of political and media actors that are unprovable and unsupported by any solid evidence. Transforming subjective opinion to truth and fact without the necessary facts or truth to back it up. And there are a lot of ridiculous statements and assertions made by a lot of politicians and people in the media that is plain BS. Statements like this was "the most secure election in history". There is simply no way anyone can prove this to be true or false given 200+ years of history, the number of Presidential elections, and the information available to verify this claim. As I said earlier in order to lie you first need to know the truth. Nobody can possibly know the truth about such a statement or create a forensic evidence trail to back it up. Its a belief, pure and simple. And perhaps an uninformed belief too. Ultimately the problem is we are in short supply of critical thinking across the entire social and political spectrum and that shortage allows these idiots to express these outlandish views and statements. And go their merry way unchallenged. Personally, over time, I have developed a quite cynical attitude toward the government and the media. My base assumption is they lie about whatever they have to and make crap up to support everything else when the need arises. Good or bad it a view defined by observation of their behavior. And like somebody from Missouri I will ask "show me". You’re done a good job swimming upstream on these issues. I enjoy your posts. A couple things were obvious to me from this past November: 1. Once the ship sailed, Biden was going to be president. The reasoning was simple…not enough time, not enough money, not enough facts/evidence readily available to convince enough the average American, and whole buncha ra’tards repeating the talking point “most secure ever”. As you said…. Based on what? Career insiders/folks with the ability to put the thumb on the scale telling us so? To boot, after the govt came for Trump, it was highly unlikely a hero would emerge to spill the beans. Too dangerous to ones health and family. 2. The notion that rank and file govt agencies have access to state of the art gold standard voting software and that no corporation or special interest might influence the outcome is silly. Govt is notoriously behind the curve on such things. 3. As I said, Sens Warren et al raised serious concerns in December 2019. You’re telling me the govt fixed all the issues she was concerned about in the 11 mos that followed, with the vast majority of govt workers staying home? At a minimum, you’d think political leaders would be out reassuring Americans that her concerns, and those of DJT were addressed and the steps undertaken to fix the issues. You’d think a major media outlet would do the expose, but that’s a lot to ask. I have no doubt—zero, none, nada, zilch that actors (foreign, domestic, public and private) sought the influence the outcome and likely did. That said, when all is said and done, the old geez in steep cognitive decline is the prez. He’s been a player in the game for 50 years, but all that really happened was after a glitch in the machine in 2016, the program was corrected and the insider installed. 2
frostbitmic Posted July 17, 2021 Posted July 17, 2021 8 hours ago, Doc said: It's obvious to anyone with a few functioning neurons that it was the least secure election in modern history. But again, there's no way to prove fraud when there's no way to prove fraud so we can't overturn the election. Instead we need to enact voting security laws, which 70% of the country is in favor of doing. And that was the least secure audit in the history of audits. Seriously an audit done by republicans without any watchdogs allowed and you want to believe it. There is no way to prove fraud because it just didn't exist. Just because your friends over at Q-Anutz says it's so, it almost certainly is not. 11 hours ago, Doc Brown said: Fine. Trump can have Arizona. Nah, don't give him anything he didn't earn. No reason to satisfy his ridiculously large ego. 1
Doc Posted July 17, 2021 Posted July 17, 2021 (edited) 15 minutes ago, frostbitmic said: And that was the least secure audit in the history of audits. Seriously an audit done by republicans without any watchdogs allowed and you want to believe it. There is no way to prove fraud because it just didn't exist. Just because your friends over at Q-Anutz says it's so, it almost certainly is not. LOL! Not that I follow them but I'd take Q-Anutz over Dumbocrat anyday. Edited July 17, 2021 by Doc 1
Governor Posted July 17, 2021 Posted July 17, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, Buffalo Timmy said: Can you show me the 1%? She was 70+% to win, favored in several states she was beaten badly, and only a few had within the margin of error, which means they suck at their job. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-forecast https://www.investors.com/politics/trump-clinton-in-dead-heat-as-race-hits-final-two-week-stretch-ibdtipp-poll/ The difference in 2016 was that there was movement late in Trump’s direction after the Comey announcement. Polling couldn’t catch up with that movement before Election Day. Ed Rendell and others were sounding alarm bells in Pa. They saw what was happening. There wasn’t enough time to poll those states again. There was no movement in Trump’s direction vs. Biden other than the normal race tightening that occurs a week out. Edited July 17, 2021 by Governor 1
Orlando Buffalo Posted July 17, 2021 Posted July 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Governor said: https://www.investors.com/politics/trump-clinton-in-dead-heat-as-race-hits-final-two-week-stretch-ibdtipp-poll/ The difference in 2016 was that there was movement late in Trump’s direction after the Comey announcement. Polling couldn’t catch up with that movement before Election Day. Ed Rendell and others were sounding alarm bells in Pa. They saw what was happening. There wasn’t enough time to poll those states again. There was no movement in Trump’s direction vs. Biden other than the normal race tightening that occurs a week out. This poll moved 2 points over the last two weeks, this poll was the outlier the entire time and is complete contradiction of your your tightening because it only changed two points. This is easier to admit that most polls over sample to help push their agenda and few are concerned with accuracy.
Governor Posted July 17, 2021 Posted July 17, 2021 (edited) 30 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said: This poll moved 2 points over the last two weeks, this poll was the outlier the entire time and is complete contradiction of your your tightening because it only changed two points. This is easier to admit that most polls over sample to help push their agenda and few are concerned with accuracy. You’re supposed to oversample based on Dem registration and likely voter advantages. This is a tracking poll. It tracks movement. Have you ever had 4 to a flush with 2 cards to come and hit that flush? We’ll, that’s what Trump did in 2016. Edited July 17, 2021 by Governor 1
SCBills Posted July 18, 2021 Posted July 18, 2021 24 minutes ago, Governor said: You’re supposed to oversample based on Dem registration and likely voter advantages. This is a tracking poll. It tracks movement. Have you ever had 4 to a flush with 2 cards to come and hit that flush? We’ll, that’s what Trump did in 2016. You continue to act like Trump winning was some one in a million feat. Do you think Kamala would beat him in 2024?.. I don’t. Also, it’s really hard to view anything that happened in 2020 as being 100% legitimate when we re-arranged voting for a pandemic and had a media/tech onslaught - not only against Trump - but, in the most glaring example of information suppression we’ve ever seen, a coordinated effort to take down/not report/falsely descredit the Hunter Biden laptop. I certainly wouldn’t go as far as to say he won, but I would say that wheels were put in motion to make sure he’d lose. 1
Governor Posted July 18, 2021 Posted July 18, 2021 12 minutes ago, SCBills said: You continue to act like Trump winning was some one in a million feat. Do you think Kamala would beat him in 2024?.. I don’t. Also, it’s really hard to view anything that happened in 2020 as being 100% legitimate when we re-arranged voting for a pandemic and had a media/tech onslaught - not only against Trump - but, in the most glaring example of information suppression we’ve ever seen, a coordinated effort to take down/not report/falsely descredit the Hunter Biden laptop. I certainly wouldn’t go as far as to say he won, but I would say that wheels were put in motion to make sure he’d lose. I don’t think you’re following our conversation. Kamala isn’t going to be the nomination so you guys should get that out of your heads.
Doc Brown Posted July 18, 2021 Posted July 18, 2021 10 minutes ago, SCBills said: You continue to act like Trump winning was some one in a million feat. Do you think Kamala would beat him in 2024?.. I don’t. Also, it’s really hard to view anything that happened in 2020 as being 100% legitimate when we re-arranged voting for a pandemic and had a media/tech onslaught - not only against Trump - but, in the most glaring example of information suppression we’ve ever seen, a coordinated effort to take down/not report/falsely descredit the Hunter Biden laptop. I certainly wouldn’t go as far as to say he won, but I would say that wheels were put in motion to make sure he’d lose. A ham sandwich could beat Harris in 2024. Not sure about Trump though. If it was down to one state within hundreds of votes like 2000 then I'd give more credence to Biden possibly being an illegitimate president. Not having to reverse three out of five states by thousands of votes. 1
Governor Posted July 18, 2021 Posted July 18, 2021 Basically, the problem pollsters have is that there’s a huge number of traditionally reliable Republican voters now calling themselves Independents because they’re embarrassed to call themselves Republicans. Trying to figure out exactly how many there are at any given time and how many are your normal “lean” Republicans you would normally see, how many lean Dem, isn’t easy at all. When you see the recent polls with huge over- sampling favoring Dems, that’s why it’s happening. It isn’t some pollster conspiracy to make Donald sad.
SCBills Posted July 18, 2021 Posted July 18, 2021 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Governor said: Basically, the problem pollsters have is that there’s a huge number of traditionally reliable Republican voters now calling themselves Independents because they’re embarrassed to call themselves Republicans. Trying to figure out exactly how many there are at any given time and how many are your normal “lean” Republicans you would normally see, how many lean Dem, isn’t easy at all. When you see the recent polls with huge over- sampling favoring Dems, that’s why it’s happening. It isn’t some pollster conspiracy to make Donald sad. This doesn’t seem to indicate that there should be some huge discrepancy in polling. Slight over-sampling of Dems, perhaps, but that’s not what we consistently see in some of these polls. https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx Edited July 18, 2021 by SCBills
Governor Posted July 18, 2021 Posted July 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, SCBills said: This doesn’t seem to indicate that there should be some huge discrepancy in polling. Slight over-sampling of Dems, perhaps, but that’s not what we consistently see in some of these polls. https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx If you use Voter ID from 2008, Dems should have between 6-7 point advantage. What is that number right now today? Dunno. You’d have to ask Nate Cohn. https://newrepublic.com/article/107813/no-the-polls-arent-oversampling-democrats
Orlando Buffalo Posted July 18, 2021 Posted July 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, SCBills said: This doesn’t seem to indicate that there should be some huge discrepancy in polling. Slight over-sampling of Dems, perhaps, but that’s not what we consistently see in some of these polls. https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx He keeps moving the goal post- when 90% of the polls had Hillary with a 95% chance of winning he believed it so therefore it had to be some miracle. Trump was always more popular in Florida then the polls showed but he will not simply admit the polls are poorly done 1
Governor Posted July 18, 2021 Posted July 18, 2021 (edited) Gallup has it at 9 right now. I don’t trust gallop but we can get a general idea. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/04/07/gallup-survey-shows-largest-increase-democratic-party-affiliation-decade/7114860002/ Now remember, that doesn’t mean that all of those voters regularly vote. You look to “likely voter” polls for that. Edited July 18, 2021 by Governor
Governor Posted July 18, 2021 Posted July 18, 2021 19 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said: He keeps moving the goal post- when 90% of the polls had Hillary with a 95% chance of winning he believed it so therefore it had to be some miracle. Trump was always more popular in Florida then the polls showed but he will not simply admit the polls are poorly done You’re confusing national polling with state polling. Some state polling was bad in 2016 and it improved in 2020. Some states are notoriously hard to poll or only poll a few times per cycle. Every state has its own quirks. Florida hasn’t mattered since Obama/McCain. They’ve become irrelevant to the process.
Governor Posted July 18, 2021 Posted July 18, 2021 What was new in 2020 was this: Lots of new fly by night pollsters starting releasing polls late showing the race tightening or Trump winning. They were hoping that their polls would get added to the RCP averages to make the race appear closer. It didn’t really work. The race never got close.
Orlando Buffalo Posted July 18, 2021 Posted July 18, 2021 25 minutes ago, Governor said: You’re confusing national polling with state polling. Some state polling was bad in 2016 and it improved in 2020. Some states are notoriously hard to poll or only poll a few times per cycle. Every state has its own quirks. Florida hasn’t mattered since Obama/McCain. They’ve become irrelevant to the process. Hard to poll? What you mean is the process of selecting the write balance gives you the wrong outcome so you poll who you need to get the "right" answer.
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