Voice of the Eagles Merrill Reese: the word is Bills are close to finalizing deal with Zach Ertz

[Not at the table Karlos]

8 hours ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

HIS QUARTERBACK IS CARSON WENTZ... maybe that has something to do with it??????

 

 

Jalen Hurts ATM. Wentz is in indy

 

 

[Rochesterfan]

7 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

In the last 4 years, minus last year because he was injured and had bad QB play, here are Ertz's numbers:

 

88 catches, 916 yards and 10.4 average.

116 catches, 1163 yards and 10.0 average.

74 catches, 824 yards and 11.1 average

78 catches, 816 yards and 10.5 average.

 

Dawson Knox with Allen throwing to him:

24 catches, 288 yards and 12.0 average.  (missed 4 games)

28 catches, 388 and 13.9 average.

 

Career catch% 

Ertz - 67%

Knox - 55%

 

 

 

The numbers are all there and all correct, but he was on a team during that time that had very limited WRs and a QB and system designed to use the TE.

 

I am fairly certain that if Ertz was given the same number of targets as Knox - let’s say last years 44 targets - his numbers don’t look the same as in Philadelphia.  
 

So let’s say we forget Ertz last year - where his catch % was 50% and actually below Knox’s - we call last year the outlier for him and look at 2019.

 

Ertz - 135 targets, 88 catches, 65% catch percentage, 916 yards, 10.4 Y/R, and 6 TDs.

 

Now let’s look at Knox if he got that kind of volume targets using his career average:

 

Knox - on 135 targets - 76 catches, 56% catch percentage, 988 yards, 13.0 Y/R and 8 TDs.

 

The difference between them would be 12 catches and Ertz would put up fewer yards and TDs - not exactly a huge advantage for Ertz - plus Ertz played mostly as essentially a split out TE - more of a WR not a blocking role as the Bills use the TE.  So let’s say we move Ertz into the current Bills offense and gave him a similar role to Knox and Kroft and gave Ertz those targets using his 2019 numbers.

 

Kroft and Knox 2020 - 50 Targets, 36 catches, 407 yards, 6 Tds

 

Now Ertz numbers with those Targets:

 

Ertz - 50 targets, 33 catches, 343 yards, 4 TDs

 

He actually produced less than Kroft and Knox combined.

 

 

Look I don’t care either way on Ertz - to me he is no more or less a threat than what they had - the difference is all about volume.  If Ertz comes in - how many targets does he get and where do they come from.  Is he playing a role similar to Knox and Kroft or are they playing him in a role similar to his time in Philadelphia or more Kelce role?  If we are giving him more targets - what WR are they coming from because his numbers are significantly worse than the WRs - so taking catches from them is a downgrade.

 

The most important thing though is what are you giving up and paying for different piece - again to me although the play different positions- Ertz was Philadelphia’s Beasley - not Knox - and therefore that is the impact that will be felt.  Beasley played the slot get open and get a first down role that Ertz had in Philadelphia and basically Beasley puts up just slightly better numbers than Ertz on average in Buffalo in that role.
 

 

 

Edited July 1, 2021 by Rochesterfan

[CSBill]

An Ertz going to the Bills thread . . .

 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

13 hours ago, Boxcar said:

I hate Howie Roseman. I've seen some stubborn GMs but this clown is delusional.

Ever go to a garage sale, and see the old codger selling a rusted ViseGrip for about fifty cents less than you can buy one new at Valu?  That's Roseman.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

9 hours ago, driddles said:

It was fun while it lasted.  See you all in tomorrow's Zach Ertz thread.

🎶We love you Zachary,

Oh yes we do!🎵

🎶We don't know anyone

We love like you🎵
🎶When you don't have a thread,

We're blue!🎵

🎶Zach Ertz, we love you!🎵

*
(It helps if you've seen 'Bye Bye Birdie'.)

[Niagara Bill]

9 hours ago, Blainorama5 said:

That's a big leap to think Beasley is automatically gone regardless if Ertz is signed or not.  You want to stockpile weapons if you're serious about making a SB run this year!  Plain and simple.  You won't find an Ertz on the wire mid to late season.  He's your insurance for either Beasley or Sanders getting hurt.

This makes more sense than just adding Ertz. 

We need CB, as was proven last yr by adding an old Norman who weakly helped. 

Weapons we now have with Sanders and Hodgins added. Ertz is good but cap dollars are precious and injuries in camp happen and we flexibility.

[Billsatlastin2018]

9 hours ago, Paul Costa said:

This screams their moving on from Beasley if Ertz is signed. If Beasley is there not enough touches for Knox, Hollister & Ertz. I’m sad to even say this but Beasley’s days are numbered in Buffalo 

I agree. Beasley made HIMSELF the issue. Now that the Bills can gain almost a foot in height for the cold, windy, snowy half of the Season at O.P., I am delighted. Get er done and see you, anti vax fool!

[Paul Costa]

5 hours ago, MJS said:

Wow, that's just not even close to accurate. They play different positions!

 

And what's with all this Hollister stuff? People read a couple of reports that he was playing well in OTA's so now he is a major contributor?

It’s pretty obvious they play two different positions 🤦‍♂️. My point is that Hollister & Ertz are similar. Why even bring in Ertz. Makes no sense. Unless you may lose arguably the best slot guy in the NFL right now to retirement. Who’s going to replace that. Some rookie or a guy we’ve had on the practice squad? Ertz would give the bills a proven pass catcher. More 12 personnel. Just another layer to prepare for.   Can flex TE’s out wide more often. Beasley is going to be a huge loss to this football team to me. Just rewatched Cards & Championship game this week. I don’t believe we can replace him with a jag. 

[Royale with Cheese]

43 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

 

The numbers are all there and all correct, but he was on a team during that time that had very limited WRs and a QB and system designed to use the TE.

 

I am fairly certain that if Ertz was given the same number of targets as Knox - let’s say last years 44 targets - his numbers don’t look the same as in Philadelphia.  
 

So let’s say we forget Ertz last year - where his catch % was 50% and actually below Knox’s - we call last year the outlier for him and look at 2019.

 

Ertz - 135 targets, 88 catches, 65% catch percentage, 916 yards, 10.4 Y/R, and 6 TDs.

 

Now let’s look at Knox if he got that kind of volume targets using his career average:

 

Knox - on 135 targets - 76 catches, 56% catch percentage, 988 yards, 13.0 Y/R and 8 TDs.

 

The difference between them would be 12 catches and Ertz would put up fewer yards and TDs - not exactly a huge advantage for Ertz - plus Ertz played mostly as essentially a split out TE - more of a WR not a blocking role as the Bills use the TE.  So let’s say we move Ertz into the current Bills offense and gave him a similar role to Knox and Kroft and gave Ertz those targets using his 2019 numbers.

 

Kroft and Knox 2020 - 50 Targets, 36 catches, 407 yards, 6 Tds

 

Now Ertz numbers with those Targets:

 

Ertz - 50 targets, 33 catches, 343 yards, 4 TDs

 

He actually produced less than Kroft and Knox combined.

 

 

Look I don’t care either way on Ertz - to me he is no more or less a threat than what they had - the difference is all about volume.  If Ertz comes in - how many targets does he get and where do they come from.  Is he playing a role similar to Knox and Kroft or are they playing him in a role similar to his time in Philadelphia or more Kelce role?  If we are giving him more targets - what WR are they coming from because his numbers are significantly worse than the WRs - so taking catches from them is a downgrade.

 

The most important thing though is what are you giving up and paying for different piece - again to me although the play different positions- Ertz was Philadelphia’s Beasley - not Knox - and therefore that is the impact that will be felt.  Beasley played the slot get open and get a first down role that Ertz had in Philadelphia and basically Beasley puts up just slightly better numbers than Ertz on average in Buffalo in that role.
 

 

 

Yes true but wouldn’t you think that we would go to Ertz more?  Beane said we essentially got nothing out of our TE last year and doesn’t sound out of design.  Being that we supposedly want Ertz, we want to change that.

 

I certainly think he won’t have the elite numbers as he did in Philly because like you say, Philly didn’t have as many weapons….but also didn’t have the QB.  I think around 50-55 catches is accurate.  I think he would be closer to 600 yards.  I think a little more TD’s as well.

[Paul Costa]

Beasley may come to his senses and follow protocols or even take the vaccine 💉. But Beane can’t wait around to see if some Texas redneck is going to take a stand for all the anti vaxer’s out there. Seems very selfish to me. I have my opinion and so does Cole. I want the Bills to win the Super Bowl this year. Does he even care? He has 100% of a opportunity to get us there. I just watch 😃

[Royale with Cheese]

1 hour ago, 4merper4mer said:

The Eagles games are readily available on replay if you look hard enough.

LOL, its not his job to back up your statement.

[716er]

1 hour ago, 4merper4mer said:

The Eagles games are readily available on replay if you look hard enough.

Watched a few of their games and never saw low effort or a poor attitude. Should be easy to cite your claims

[TheBeaneBandit]

What's better than one guy who line up in the slot and get you first downs? TWO! More options are a good thing peeps, and this would also open up more deep opportunities for Diggs, which is exciting. Whether it happens or not, Ertz would help this team.

 

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

 

[IgotBILLStopay]

13 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I hadn't thought of it that way, but it's a fair point where Knox, Kroft, and Smith were concerned.

 

On the other hand, I believe the Bills feel that Sanders is at least equal to John Brown, who saw 52 targets last season.  And your comparison doesn't sound as impressive if you say "if Ertz takes the 2020 targets from Knox, Kroft and Smith, that's 58 targets....."

This.

 

The fact that those 3 only had 58 targets shows how badly we need a pass catching tight end. There is little doubt that a healthy Ertz on the field, Allen will go to him a lot more. So replacing partial targets is not the way to look at it - since there is endogeneity with targets and personnel.

 

 

[Captain Hindsight]

23 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

 

This account is notoriously wrong. I wouldnt trust it

[Back2Buff]

With Beasley potentially being gone and Sanders struggles, you need more weapons.  Ertz is a nice big weapon.

Edited July 1, 2021 by Back2Buff

[teef]

this ***** thread...

[CorkScrewHill]

Fool me once shame on ...

 

Per Sports Illustrated the "source" stated that he had read it a few weeks ago and reiterated he has no inside information.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/bills/news/latest-zach-ertz-trade-rumors-based-only-on-what-eagles-broadcaster-read-weeks-ago

 

He likely was reading the third TBD Ertz to Buffalo threads.

Edited July 1, 2021 by CorkScrewHill

[Niagara Bill]

1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

 

The numbers are all there and all correct, but he was on a team during that time that had very limited WRs and a QB and system designed to use the TE.

 

I am fairly certain that if Ertz was given the same number of targets as Knox - let’s say last years 44 targets - his numbers don’t look the same as in Philadelphia.  
 

So let’s say we forget Ertz last year - where his catch % was 50% and actually below Knox’s - we call last year the outlier for him and look at 2019.

 

Ertz - 135 targets, 88 catches, 65% catch percentage, 916 yards, 10.4 Y/R, and 6 TDs.

 

Now let’s look at Knox if he got that kind of volume targets using his career average:

 

Knox - on 135 targets - 76 catches, 56% catch percentage, 988 yards, 13.0 Y/R and 8 TDs.

 

The difference between them would be 12 catches and Ertz would put up fewer yards and TDs - not exactly a huge advantage for Ertz - plus Ertz played mostly as essentially a split out TE - more of a WR not a blocking role as the Bills use the TE.  So let’s say we move Ertz into the current Bills offense and gave him a similar role to Knox and Kroft and gave Ertz those targets using his 2019 numbers.

 

Kroft and Knox 2020 - 50 Targets, 36 catches, 407 yards, 6 Tds

 

Now Ertz numbers with those Targets:

 

Ertz - 50 targets, 33 catches, 343 yards, 4 TDs

 

He actually produced less than Kroft and Knox combined.

 

 

Look I don’t care either way on Ertz - to me he is no more or less a threat than what they had - the difference is all about volume.  If Ertz comes in - how many targets does he get and where do they come from.  Is he playing a role similar to Knox and Kroft or are they playing him in a role similar to his time in Philadelphia or more Kelce role?  If we are giving him more targets - what WR are they coming from because his numbers are significantly worse than the WRs - so taking catches from them is a downgrade.

 

The most important thing though is what are you giving up and paying for different piece - again to me although the play different positions- Ertz was Philadelphia’s Beasley - not Knox - and therefore that is the impact that will be felt.  Beasley played the slot get open and get a first down role that Ertz had in Philadelphia and basically Beasley puts up just slightly better numbers than Ertz on average in Buffalo in that role.
 

 

 

So, we have cap money to potentially spend in 2021. What does this team need most, a TE or CB. Ertz or Gilmore type?

Ertz is a luxury, CB is a necessity.