I keep hearing on this board that Tremaine Edmunds only makes tackles 5+ yards past the L.O.S..🤔

[PrimeTime101]

11 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Outside linebacker and edge rusher.

ok but that's opinionated that he should play that position not more factual. but i see it and get it lol

[Doc]

11 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

ok but that's opinionated that he should play that position not more factual. but i see it and get it lol

 

Not really opinion: that's where he played in college. Obviously McD and co. know a hell of a lot more than I do, but I think they're trying to find their Kuechly and pounding a square peg into a round hole (that part is opinion).  I'd just hate to have tried him at MLB for the first 4 years, (potentially) give up on him and see him excel elsewhere at OLB.

Edited July 1, 2021 by Doc

[BADOLBILZ]

46 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Are people really “hating” on him.  

 

 

No, they aren't.

 

It's just typical "apologist speak".........people like @eball exaggerate the criticisms to make them seem unfair.

 

[Teddy KGB]

Watching Hamilton with the volume on 30 > reading this thread.  
 

 

[PrimeTime101]

59 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Not really opinion: that's where he played in college. Obviously McD and co. know a hell of a lot more than I do, but I think they're trying to find their Kuechly and pounding a square peg into a round hole (that part is opinion).  I'd just hate to have tried him at MLB for the first 4 years, (potentially) give up on him and see him excel elsewhere at OLB.

your opinion is he would be better with what he did in college as edge. McD' opinion is that he should be an ILB. Coaches opinion that matters in this case he played the position he is being paid for.. 

 

All that being said.. I agree.. he would be a better OLB/EDGE

[Nuncha]

Imagine what his numbers would be if the D-line was better last season and if he were healthy the entire year.

 

This season should be much better for him with the D-line improvements made and hopefully he can stay healthy.

Edited July 1, 2021 by Azucho98

[YattaOkasan]

On 6/29/2021 at 9:19 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Look at the probability issue this way:   

 

1) A tackle for no gain focuses ONLY on one specific yard of the field.   It's a much more specific stat than a TFL.   Not going to argue over "zero" so let's just say there approximately 100 individual potential yardage outcomes on a handoff.   A run for -11 and a run for +72 yards are both on the rare end of that range......but just like a TFNG each of those are 1 specific possible yardage outcome of a handoff from the middle of your own end of the field.  

 

2) You can only be tackled where there are tacklers.   The only area of the field where there are always a lot of tacklers for the RB to evade is right at the LOS.     So while you may have a wide assortment of yardage outcomes on 25 handoffs in a game.......and the vast majority of them will be for a gain......the MOST LIKELY of all possible specific yardage gained results on run plays in general is going to be zero.

 

You can say I am de-valuing a tackle for no gain.........but I don't think so........they are going to happen FREQUENTLY regardless.    And not even so much on first down like you are talking about.......a lot of times on 2nd and short, 3rd and short.......goal line.....teams practically run themselves into no-gain outcomes all the time.

 

And those don't necessarily prove a lot about the individual talent on either side of the ball.  And one of the reasons statisticians don't value a net zero play as much as a negative play is because tackles at the LOS often don't require a great deal of individual skill.   If the DL ties up their gaps and just leaves a narrow space to run or forces a runner horizontal for the free flowing LB SHOULD make the tackle every time.   An open field tackle is often a much higher degree of difficulty.

 

As such.......negative plays begin with run TFL's and escalate in importance into sacks and turnovers.

 

We isolate them because we know the statistical importance of forced negative plays in the outcome of games.   

  

 

I don’t think TFNG is the mode in this data set as it’s only 9% of the data set. Getting some gain will almost certainly be a higher percentage.  I understand your point of TFNG being a big number but all TFL is actually a bigger number so it’s a mischaracterization to say it’s a little important number being added to an insignificant big number. 
 

 Your point on short distance situations is interesting too. You have de valued them quite a bit IMO. A TFNG in short yardage situation is more beneficial than on first down.  This is in a direct sense. If you are trying to say a TFL on first down is more important because they indirectly cause turnovers then I could be convinced (show the data please). However the short yardage TFNG causes punts (as you said desirable) or keeps points off the board. 
 

you say the position is devalued but then say how much his 5th year contract is and he should just be an edge. All these things can’t be true. He made a pro bowl (without doing well in fan vote). And part of the 5th year formula incorporates how much the position gets paid. 
 

he needs to play better than last year but he’s above average and flirting with top 10 seems right to me. 

[GoBills808]

15 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Not really opinion: that's where he played in college. Obviously McD and co. know a hell of a lot more than I do, but I think they're trying to find their Kuechly and pounding a square peg into a round hole (that part is opinion).  I'd just hate to have tried him at MLB for the first 4 years, (potentially) give up on him and see him excel elsewhere at OLB.

He played all over in college. Including MLB.

[Patrick Duffy]

4 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Good thing the future hall of famer Star Lotulelei is back….

Yeah I'm one of those that's not confident his return will make a whole lot of difference, at least not to the degree that some here do that I've seen. I mean I am hopeful and will be beyond a good thing if it does by all means. Definitely will be cheering for him and everyone else as always....

 

I think he will help some for sure, but just don't think it will be to the degree that some do

[Sharky7337]

On 6/29/2021 at 4:29 PM, Doc Brown said:

He got it from PFF who has Edmunds as the 24th best LB entering 2021 (Milano was 11th).  https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-linebacker-rankings-entering-2021-nfl-season

 

He got those numbers from PFF.

If I'm Bobby Wagner I'm scared to be mentioned in the same paragraph.

[4merper4mer]

22 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

No, they aren't.

 

It's just typical "apologist speak".........people like @eball exaggerate the criticisms to make them seem unfair.

 

How many times have you read on this board someone wanting to trade Edmunds?  How many times for all of our other starter’s combined?

[BADOLBILZ]

11 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

I don’t think TFNG is the mode in this data set as it’s only 9% of the data set. Getting some gain will almost certainly be a higher percentage.  I understand your point of TFNG being a big number but all TFL is actually a bigger number so it’s a mischaracterization to say it’s a little important number being added to an insignificant big number. 
 

 Your point on short distance situations is interesting too. You have de valued them quite a bit IMO. A TFNG in short yardage situation is more beneficial than on first down.  This is in a direct sense. If you are trying to say a TFL on first down is more important because they indirectly cause turnovers then I could be convinced (show the data please). However the short yardage TFNG causes punts (as you said desirable) or keeps points off the board. 
 

you say the position is devalued but then say how much his 5th year contract is and he should just be an edge. All these things can’t be true. He made a pro bowl (without doing well in fan vote). And part of the 5th year formula incorporates how much the position gets paid. 
 

he needs to play better than last year but he’s above average and flirting with top 10 seems right to me. 

 

 

1) Regarding your first paragraph......you are of course correct that most runs result in a "some" gain of yardage.   Last season the average carry netted 4.4 yards.

 

But "some" is not a specific yardage number........a TFNG = exactly 0 yards gained.    Your team may only run for zero gain 3 times in a game but they aren't likely to run for any other exact yardage amount......positive or negative......... more often than they run for exactly zero.   

 

2)  TFNG are valuable......one yard more valuable than a tackle for 1 yard gain......2 yards more valuable than a TF2YG.......3 yards more valuable than a 1 yard sack.    As I've said, stats like TFL and sacks are broad and they don't ALWAYS reflect exceptional individual performance........but if a player gets a lot of them it's fair to assume that player is doing exceptional work.   I pointed out two other MLB's that had 18 TFL each last year........Edmunds had only 4.    That's a very big difference.

 

3) MLB is ABSOLUTELY a devalued position........much like the RB position, you need one but you don't need a star quality one.    And just like Derrick Henry is a playmaking difference maker at RB.......a guy like Devin White can be that at MLB.    

 

Tremaine Edmunds.........despite physically being the "Derrick Henry of MLB's".......an absolute freak........has not been a game changing,  playmaking,  difference making MLB.

 

He's been above average in a league where there aren't many above average MLB's......and a league where there don't need to be.   Average is fine at that position.    Average is NOT fine at pass rusher..........and that is a position that Edmunds seems to project much better too. 

 

 

Edited July 2, 2021 by BADOLBILZ

[YattaOkasan]

On 7/1/2021 at 8:46 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

1) Regarding your first paragraph......you are of course correct that most runs result in a "some" gain of yardage.   Last season the average carry netted 4.4 yards.

 

But "some" is not a specific yardage number........a TFNG = exactly 0 yards gained.    Your team may only run for zero gain 3 times in a game but they aren't likely to run for any other exact yardage amount......positive or negative......... more often than they run for exactly zero.   

 

2)  TFNG are valuable......one yard more valuable than a tackle for 1 yard gain......2 yards more valuable than a TF2YG.......3 yards more valuable than a 1 yard sack.    As I've said, stats like TFL and sacks are broad and they don't ALWAYS reflect exceptional individual performance........but if a player gets a lot of them it's fair to assume that player is doing exceptional work.   I pointed out two other MLB's that had 18 TFL each last year........Edmunds had only 4.    That's a very big difference.

 

3) MLB is ABSOLUTELY a devalued position........much like the RB position, you need one but you don't need a star quality one.    And just like Derrick Henry is a playmaking difference maker at RB.......a guy like Devin White can be that at MLB.    

 

Tremaine Edmunds.........despite physically being the "Derrick Henry of MLB's".......an absolute freak........has not been a game changing,  playmaking,  difference making MLB.

 

He's been above average in a league where there aren't many above average MLB's......and a league where there don't need to be.   Average is fine at that position.    Average is NOT fine at pass rusher..........and that is a position that Edmunds seems to project much better too. 

 

 

Thanks for the response. Appreciate the 2nd point. And agree with much of the third (I don’t think McD thinks it’s devalued).
 

on the first point I guess we need to think about exact yardage and how the data set was formed. If it is in integers I am very certain that 0 is not the mode. 1 or 2 would seem to be the most common result.  If we’re gonna parse it out to decimals the. Yes you’re probably right TFNG would be higher but i strongly doubt any data set would have that much granularity. 

[akcash]

This is me speaking objectively and I like Tremaine and hope all works out I  future. Last year did absolutely nothing to help that stat.

[HardyBoy]

On 6/30/2021 at 1:15 AM, Richard Noggin said:

Pretty please run the numbers and share the infographic! Pretty please!

 

I pulled some initial stuff. Based on the distribution of running yards, the most likely place to get tackled on a run is not the line of scrimmage (did not qa my data or logic much at all tbf).

 

What's more interesting is I did some super initial analysis to compare how many yards down field were solo tackles by down, specifically looking at Edmunds vs Wagner. I just did a box and whisker without looking at the specific quartile numbers, and these are small sample sizes for sure (just 2020 in my initial pass), but they look fairly similar, with Wagner getting more tackles for no gain or better, but it wasn't a huge diff (at the scale I was looking the differences appeared minimal, but would want to zoom in to get a better sense at some point).

 

So what is my main takeaway? I just looked a solo tackles, and neither player looked great (I should get an Brian U season for a baseline I guess). Building in logic to get assisted tackles is a bit more work, but my initial thought is if you are having your middle linebacker making solo tackles, then you are already in trouble. That means the rb is able to dictate the run and the dline is not controlling the game.

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

Those whining about Edmunds criticism go back and watch the first patriots game from last year. He was the worst player on the field by far.

After that game I couldn’t help but notice his poor play the rest of the season. I’m not sure I can be convinced it’s mostly due to injury. I keep an open mind, but there are plays where there is no way it is the D line’s fault. 
 

Hopefully I’m wrong and he is healthy and improved next season. 
 

As for the calls for him to be traded. I chalk that up to his perceived value around the league being higher than his actually play on the field. His pro bowl selection was a joke. The best MLBs are in the NFC and Hightower, Mosley, and Bush didn’t play last season in the AFC. 

 

 

[BurpleBull]

On 6/29/2021 at 7:01 PM, TBBills said:

He is the anti Kiko Alonso. With Kiko people tried to find ways he was awesome, with Edmunds they try to find a way he sucks.

 

I don't remember Alonso being terrible.

[TBBills]

2 minutes ago, BurpleBull said:

 

I don't remember Alonso being terrible.

It's best you remember it that way.

[BurpleBull]

13 hours ago, TBBills said:

It's best you remember it that way.

 

I don't remember Alonso being terrible, much like I don't remember Edmunds being this great run stopper the way much of the board suddenly seems to after a tweet. 

[GETTOTHE50]

I’ve said it before, but he needs to work on his pre-snap reads.

 

He will be able to play more instinctive when he has an idea of what play is coming and will also be able to check into a different play for the defense.