I keep hearing on this board that Tremaine Edmunds only makes tackles 5+ yards past the L.O.S..🤔

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Watch the tape.  He was awful last year.  I really liked the player when he was drafted but not what Beane gave up to get him.  I have an open mind for 2021.  If he makes plays like he did in the second half on 2019 then the Bills D can be elite.  He won't be benched no matter how poorly he plays.  They don't have a suitable backup and the organization seems committed to Edmunds at MLB.

[K-9]

2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

The amount of people who think they know more about linebackers than Sean McDermott is absolutely breathtaking

There’s only one forum member here who knows more about linebackers; indeed, more about all of football than Sean McDermott. We are all so fortunate that he deigns to grace us with his presence in these threads. 

[berg1029]

1 hour ago, Kwai San said:

 

Sorry man but Edmunds is MUCH more than JAG......you are one of the haters - I get it - but good gawd man the kid is WAY more than JAG......way way more

I don't know where the attitude is coming from, you just asked why people expect more from him.  I gave an answer.  Expectations come with the team trading up for you.  It's just a fact - it's not a statement of whether I think he is an effective player or not. 

[HardyBoy]

46 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Look at the probability issue this way:   

 

1) A tackle for no gain focuses ONLY on one specific yard of the field.   It's a much more specific stat than a TFL.   Not going to argue over "zero" so let's just say there approximately 100 individual potential yardage outcomes on a handoff.   A run for -11 and a run for +72 yards are both on the rare end of that range......but just like a TFNG each of those are 1 specific possible yardage outcome of a handoff from the middle of your own end of the field.  

 

2) You can only be tackled where there are tacklers.   The only area of the field where there are always a lot of tacklers for the RB to evade is right at the LOS.     So while you may have a wide assortment of yardage outcomes on 25 handoffs in a game.......and the vast majority of them will be for a gain......the MOST LIKELY of all possible specific yardage gained results on run plays in general is going to be zero.

 

You can say I am de-valuing a tackle for no gain.........but I don't think so........they are going to happen FREQUENTLY regardless.    And not even so much on first down like you are talking about.......a lot of times on 2nd and short, 3rd and short.......goal line.....teams practically run themselves into no-gain outcomes all the time.

 

And those don't necessarily prove a lot about the individual talent on either side of the ball.  And one of the reasons statisticians don't value a net zero play as much as a negative play is because tackles at the LOS often don't require a great deal of individual skill.   If the DL ties up their gaps and just leaves a narrow space to run or forces a runner horizontal for the free flowing LB SHOULD make the tackle every time.   An open field tackle is often a much higher degree of difficulty.

 

As such.......negative plays begin with run TFL's and escalate in importance into sacks and turnovers.

 

We isolate them because we know the statistical importance of forced negative plays in the outcome of games.   

  

 

 

So I would argue it's all and only really about keeping teams behind the chains. A tackle for no gain on first and 10 is monumentally more valuable than 2nd and 3 because it limits an offenses options and allows the defense to get more exotic because they know the offense is likely to do a much smaller set of things that shrinks even more when you add in formations and personnel. One of the likely plays on 2nd and 3 is a run up the middle hoping for even just a yard or two to set up 3rd and possibly 4th and super short.

 

Think of it this way, a stop for no gain on 2nd and 7 is the same as a tackle for a 4 yard loss on 2nd and 3. It's relative to what puts teams behind the chains. Your argument it sounds like is that Edmunds gets a bunch of no gain tackles on 2nd and 3 when maybe they bring Poyer up and free Edmunds up to sell out on the run a bit more. One of my biggest memories from the D last year were the lack of first down stuffs, and how often teams were in 2nd and 5 or less. Also, not many holding calls either getting teams into 1st and 20, which to me is a scheme issue as much as a player issue.

 

2nd half of the season was totally different (just as a feel, i haven't seen or pulled together any stats to support that).

 

As for where the most likely place to get tackled is. I had a feeling you were maybe talking about yards in terms of hundreths place (1.00 yards) on an actual number line and thinking about it the way you did.

 

Haha, I know how to do R Programming and could probably pull all runs from the last 20 years using a package in there that pulls play by play data and toss it into Tableau and get a nice visualization with a histogram and maybe some cool other more fun data visualizations to see if you're right. Doubt I'm motivated enough, but could do it

 

Getting the down and distance and if Edmunds made the tackle and where is doable I would think, just would prob be a bit more involved...shoot part of me wants to jump on my computer right now and see if I can do it!...the other part of me wants to drink a beer and play video games a bit instead of folding my kids laundry (a 4 yr old and an 18 month old have so, so, so many clothes and they're so little so the pile of to fold goes down so slowly...like potentially 50 things to fold in a single hamper of kids clothes easy).

[Augie]

1 hour ago, Kwai San said:

 

Sorry man but Edmunds is MUCH more than JAG......you are one of the haters - I get it - but good gawd man the kid is WAY more than JAG......way way more

 

I think people need to get over where and how he was drafted. That is water under the bridge. I prefer to look at the player on the field, because that’s all that matters now. 

 

Yes, he fills the wrong gap at times. I hope he can get better there, and expect experience will help. Having said that, there is a LOT to like about this 23 year old kid. I like his future and hope he continues to improve in a Bills uniform. 

 

He fits what this FO seems to like - serious physical specimens! Great big people they can teach to be dominant football players. Josh, Edmunds and Groot all seem to be cut from the same cloth. Giants with very high ceilings. 

[Augie]

45 minutes ago, K-9 said:

There’s only one forum member here who knows more about linebackers; indeed, more about all of football than Sean McDermott. We are all so fortunate that he deigns to grace us with his presence in these threads. 

 

There was even a point where he pointed out that people jogging in a park were doing it wrong. It would lead to injuries. The world is a better place with constant advice from the omniscient. 

 

We all have opinions. Nobody is keeper of all the facts, despite what my SIL thinks. 

 

 

.

Edited June 30, 2021 by Augie

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, Billy Claude said:

 

If BruceExclusive got those numbers from PFF, his quote was extremely selective since he left out the 57 missed tackles and 9 touchdowns surrendered and and the fact there were 4 other linebackers in Edmunds' draft year that PFF ranked higher (including three drafted after him).

 

The TFL numbers 5, 10 and 4 are consistent with how he played over all:

 

Year 1 -- meh but he was a rookie -- however, but there were several rookie LBs that played better than Edmunds

Year 2 -- he looked very good, especially towards the end of the season.  I was really looking forward to what he would look like in year 3.

Year 3 -- meh but hopefully it was due to his injury (unknown how bad it was -- maybe it was the reason for all the missed tackles) and missing Star (whole season) and Milano (substantial part of season) .  He did look better toward the end of the year with Milano back.

Year 4 -- hopefully year 3 was just a hiccup in the progression, however, I don't see how there is at least a bit of concern about how he played last year.

 

 

 

 

In any case -- certainly one ho

 

 

Year 1 -- meh

This is mostly how I've seen him too.  He's shown flashes of what he can become but has been way too inconsistent to give him a market setting long term deal.  It just seems the game moves too fast for him for whatever reason especially when he's in coverage.  It's frustrating given he's an athletic freak that the Bills gave up a third round pick to trade up for.  The pro bowl selection this year was a joke.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, HardyBoy said:

 

So I would argue it's all and only really about keeping teams behind the chains. A tackle for no gain on first and 10 is monumentally more valuable than 2nd and 3 because it limits an offenses options and allows the defense to get more exotic because they know the offense is likely to do a much smaller set of things that shrinks even more when you add in formations and personnel. One of the likely plays on 2nd and 3 is a run up the middle hoping for even just a yard or two to set up 3rd and possibly 4th and super short.

 

Think of it this way, a stop for no gain on 2nd and 7 is the same as a tackle for a 4 yard loss on 2nd and 3. It's relative to what puts teams behind the chains. Your argument it sounds like is that Edmunds gets a bunch of no gain tackles on 2nd and 3 when maybe they bring Poyer up and free Edmunds up to sell out on the run a bit more. One of my biggest memories from the D last year were the lack of first down stuffs, and how often teams were in 2nd and 5 or less. Also, not many holding calls either getting teams into 1st and 20, which to me is a scheme issue as much as a player issue.

 

2nd half of the season was totally different (just as a feel, i haven't seen or pulled together any stats to support that).

 

As for where the most likely place to get tackled is. I had a feeling you were maybe talking about yards in terms of hundreths place (1.00 yards) on an actual number line and thinking about it the way you did.

 

Haha, I know how to do R Programming and could probably pull all runs from the last 20 years using a package in there that pulls play by play data and toss it into Tableau and get a nice visualization with a histogram and maybe some cool other more fun data visualizations to see if you're right. Doubt I'm motivated enough, but could do it

 

Getting the down and distance and if Edmunds made the tackle and where is doable I would think, just would prob be a bit more involved...shoot part of me wants to jump on my computer right now and see if I can do it!...the other part of me wants to drink a beer and play video games a bit instead of folding my kids laundry (a 4 yr old and an 18 month old have so, so, so many clothes and they're so little so the pile of to fold goes down so slowly...like potentially 50 things to fold in a single hamper of kids clothes easy).

 

I think the objective on defense is actually to get a turnover..........forcing a punt is nice but turnover differential is an incredibly decisive stat.

 

You can really go down a rabbit hole picking situations where a TFNG "on one down" is as good or better than a TFL or sack "on another down".

 

On the same down a TFL or sack is always as good or better than a TFNG.

 

Negative plays are viewed as a reflection of exceptional individual play while TFNG's usually happen with 4-6 defenders on the same plane and don't necessarily require anyone to defeat a block.   

 

We know all negative plays don't necessary represent an extraordinary play by the person credited with the stat either.......sometimes a guy lucks into a garbage sack etc............but if you get 18 TFL's like Smith and White each did then you are doing something very right.........and if you get just 4, like Edmunds, you are more than unlucky.   

Edited June 30, 2021 by BADOLBILZ

[PrimeTime101]

Offensive lines were dictating who to double team last year. who when where.  Typically a defensive line if better then average dictates the gaps for the LB's to hit. Because our D'Line was really bad last year, it Makes the LBS look worse. When a line can move the A and B gap to there liking it makes the LBS hit a gap that simply is not there.

 

This explains why Edmunds was hitting the line in the wrong places or looked "out of position"

 

 

Also

 

 

Our defense had to be creative last year because our front 4 did not reach home as much as one would hope. This puts even more pressure on Milano and Edmunds.

 

 

I get it in coverage.. Edmunds looked lost at times.. He bit on the inside stuff to much at times or bit on the pump fakes.. The kid is young yet he has had some years in the NFL to learn. This is not making excuses for Edmunds nor should have any excuses this year as defensive play should improve..

 

In short... the book is not 100% written on Edmunds yet... but I sure am enjoying reading it.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

There’s only one forum member here who knows more about linebackers; indeed, more about all of football than Sean McDermott. We are all so fortunate that he deigns to grace us with his presence in these threads. 

 

There's also only one forum member here who was fired from the secretary pool at One Bills Drive in the spring of 1983.

 

We'd love to hear your side of the story.

[nedboy7]

I miss the thread about the vaccine. 

[NewEra]

6 hours ago, unbillievable said:

Reminds me a lot of Leodis Mckelvin.

All the physical tools, with very little instinct. Too many plays being made in his area.

Pretty good comp imo.  Drafted around the same slot (10-16).  Both super athletic with the ceiling to be all time greats.  Both lacking the football instincts to become all time greats after 3 seasons.  Is this where Tremaine sets himself apart?  I sure hope so.  

2 hours ago, K-9 said:

There’s only one forum member here who knows more about linebackers; indeed, more about all of football than Sean McDermott. We are all so fortunate that he deigns to grace us with his presence in these threads. 

@Gene1973 = god

[Richard Noggin]

5 hours ago, TBBills said:

He is the anti Kiko Alonso. With Kiko people tried to find ways he was awesome, with Edmunds they try to find a way he sucks.

Agree heartily. It IS worth noting WHY fans wanted to celebrate Kiko, though: impact plays. Fans love them some defenders who cause or recover turnovers (there are other kinds of more nuanced impact defensive plays for front-7 guys, including TFLs and pressures and penetrations, which are maybe overvalued to simplify our amateur scouting evaluations). But reliance on such metrics and splashes can lead us to overvaluing guys like Alonso, and like Jairus Byrd. 

 

It's obvious Alonso had a Jairus Byrd-like season, simply being frequently in the right place at the right time (and making a few athletic plays along the way). Turnovers are sexy. Obviously.

[Richard Noggin]

2 hours ago, HardyBoy said:

As for where the most likely place to get tackled is. I had a feeling you were maybe talking about yards in terms of hundreths place (1.00 yards) on an actual number line and thinking about it the way you did.

 

Haha, I know how to do R Programming and could probably pull all runs from the last 20 years using a package in there that pulls play by play data and toss it into Tableau and get a nice visualization with a histogram and maybe some cool other more fun data visualizations to see if you're right. Doubt I'm motivated enough, but could do it

 

Getting the down and distance and if Edmunds made the tackle and where is doable I would think, just would prob be a bit more involved...shoot part of me wants to jump on my computer right now and see if I can do it!...the other part of me wants to drink a beer and play video games a bit instead of folding my kids laundry (a 4 yr old and an 18 month old have so, so, so many clothes and they're so little so the pile of to fold goes down so slowly...like potentially 50 things to fold in a single hamper of kids clothes easy).

Pretty please run the numbers and share the infographic! Pretty please!

[NewEra]

6 hours ago, TBBills said:

He is the anti Kiko Alonso. With Kiko people tried to find ways he was awesome, with Edmunds they try to find a way he sucks.

See ball.  Get ball.  Kiko attacked with 💯 conviction and tried to take the ball carriers head off.  That’s why I liked him.  
 

tremaine is just trying to keep the play in front of him.  Arm tackles galore.  Very little confidence running downhill.  Usually looks lost in coverage.  
 

that said, I think Tremaine is better than Kiko was as a Bill, but kikos style of play made him a fan favorite.  Whether or not he made the right or wrong decision, he was deliberate.  I appreciated that about him.  
 

i hate that I can see Tremaine think before he reacts.  He is anything but deliberate.  He rarely attacks with conviction.  That’s why, imo, people found ways to say that kiko was awesome and find ways to say Tremaine sucks.  Attack Tremaine.  Don’t think.  Just play.    

[machine gun kelly]

5 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Offensive lines were dictating who to double team last year. who when where.  Typically a defensive line if better then average dictates the gaps for the LB's to hit. Because our D'Line was really bad last year, it Makes the LBS look worse. When a line can move the A and B gap to there liking it makes the LBS hit a gap that simply is not there.

 

This explains why Edmunds was hitting the line in the wrong places or looked "out of position"

 

 

Also

 

 

Our defense had to be creative last year because our front 4 did not reach home as much as one would hope. This puts even more pressure on Milano and Edmunds.

 

 

I get it in coverage.. Edmunds looked lost at times.. He bit on the inside stuff to much at times or bit on the pump fakes.. The kid is young yet he has had some years in the NFL to learn. This is not making excuses for Edmunds nor should have any excuses this year as defensive play should improve..

 

In short... the book is not 100% written on Edmunds yet... but I sure am enjoying reading it.

PT101,  well written my friend.  Edmunds has done a lot right, and made some mistakes and played through an injury I suspect was worse than he led on during the season.  Not an excuse, he just didn’t look right from game 3-8.  I wouldn’t say he’s as good as Devin White, but he is a solid LB and looked a lot better when Milano returned.  I called into Polians radio show last week and this was his exact comment that the two compliment each other.  
 

What was Captain Obvious to many of us is our front four just wasn’t getting there.  The closest to a successful season was Hughes as he was in the backfield quick forcing a number of early throws by opposing QB’s.  I’m excited to see what this mew talent will do along with Star back to bring the front four to where it should’ve been last year.  It was by far even more than the pedestrian running game our worst deficiency.

[1ManRaid]

12 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

 

The only outs I see is that PFF includes tackles for no gain (which I doubt makes much difference) or PFF has a lot narrower definition of who's a linebacker than teamrankings.com website.

 

Edit: This is probably it -- they probably regard a guy like TJ Watt as edge rather than outside linebacker.

 

 

 

 

There's a lot more TFNGs than you think.  They account for 9% of rushing plays vs 12% for TFLs.  Maybe something in the defensive scheme or generally the way he is coached leads to him hitting guys at the line at a higher rate than normal.  Maybe his propensity for shooting the wrong gap led to him being coached to sometimes wait an extra moment to "spy" the running back, with that delay leading to a TFNG rather than a TFL.

[Royale with Cheese]

9 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Watch the tape.  He was awful last year.  I really liked the player when he was drafted but not what Beane gave up to get him.  I have an open mind for 2021.  If he makes plays like he did in the second half on 2019 then the Bills D can be elite.  He won't be benched no matter how poorly he plays.  They don't have a suitable backup and the organization seems committed to Edmunds at MLB.

 

What tape do you have?

 

If he was awful, they wouldn't have picked up his 5th year option just like they didn't pick up Shaq Lawson's 5th year option.

 

To say they won't bench no matter how bad he plays is just a crutch you can use to constantly bash him.  McDermott benched Spain 5 games into a year after they extended him.  We also have Tyrel Adams as depth so if Edmund's is playing terribly, he will be sat.

[Kwai San]

9 hours ago, berg1029 said:

I don't know where the attitude is coming from, you just asked why people expect more from him.  I gave an answer.  Expectations come with the team trading up for you.  It's just a fact - it's not a statement of whether I think he is an effective player or not. 

 

Facts would dictate if he was JAG he wouldn't even be mentioned in any of these publications that are touting him.  Facts would show he is in the bottom percentile of his profession.  Sorry but those facts are not evident to me.  Nor is his play on the field.  Again I get it - you don't like him and your expectation is high based on your perceptions of others who also do not like him.  If these facts exist I would like to see them.  If these facts exist in your perceptions well then.......

 

Again - as it was said earlier - get over where he was drafted or how he was drafted........if he was JAG he would not be getting the attention he is.  No one would bother to fill the space to write about him.  There are a ton of JAG's to write about. 

[eball]

Wow.  Some of you seem have found your life’s calling critiquing Tremaine Edmunds.  I can’t wait for the season to get here.