Bills rushing - yards before contact

[Shaw66]

8 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

imo, this is the fallout from a designed team concept of everybody being able to play every position along both lines. In the ‘daze of yore’, a team was either Zone Blocking or man on man Road Graders. We would get screwed with new coaches every couple years as each of them wanted the opposite of what we were trying to build and adding specific skill sets for on the OL. Couple this with Allen being an uncommon running entity and the rush game as a whole being an afterthought, I don’t see anything of note changing any time soon. 

Look at our OL. Feliciano and Ford are road graders who can be a liability in Passpro, while Morse and D. Williams are great at Passpro, not so much at run blocking. We don’t know who we are -and we don’t give a damn. We’ve got Josh Allen.

I think there's some truth to this.  McBeane do want a lot of flexibility among their players.   However, I think their philosophy makes a little more sense when you think it all the way through.

 

Yes, they want position flexibility, which means that a lot of the players are tweeners.   The benefit they're shooting for, however, is to be able to play any style.  They want to be able to do what the Patriots did to teams for many seasons, which was to change how they attack from week to week.  Teams don't know what to prepare for, and the Bills have the opportunity, even within games, to change their style of play.  

 

Now, I don't know if they can achieve that goal, but that's the objective.  As for the run game, I think their plan is that they just need a little better execution to create just a little more room so the Bills running backs can get into the hole and then use their ability to break tackles to get better yardage than last season.  I don't know if they can achieve that, either, but I think that's the goal.  

 

[Don Otreply]

6 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I heard this on a segment/podcast not too long ago but didn't know where to look it up.  

I think they're going to change their run blocking philosophy since we are essentially going with the same everything.

Run blocking schemes via the O line and it’s related coaches were a target of Beane in his 2019/2020 season end PC, so yes, the run blocking concepts/schemes will have already been addressed this preseason by the GM, offensive coaching staff, and relevant players.  We will see a substantial improvement in both the Online and the RBs outcomes this upcoming season, otherwise the heads of some coaches and players will roll, as the saying goes…, 

 

Go Bills!!!

[Doc]

5 hours ago, DJB said:

 

Absolutely concur. And thankfully as Cover 1 explained, the running game on the back half of the season went to a more zone scheme and moved away from power. Moss thrives in zone and Singletary struggled. Whereas in power Devin was more productive and Moss struggled. 

 

We need to go with zone and run with Moss Breida. 

 

FIFY.

[Orlando Buffalo]

I will be interested if Breida changes this, because it could be blocking or it could be that both running backs we run with are similar styles. I do also wonder if the numbers changed much from week 1-4, when no one believes Josh was MVP player, to later in year when they had to be more honest defensively.

[Doc]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I will be interested if Breida changes this, because it could be blocking or it could be that both running backs we run with are similar styles. I do also wonder if the numbers changed much from week 1-4, when no one believes Josh was MVP player, to later in year when they had to be more honest defensively.

 

Breida's speed and catching ability (87.3% catch percentage after his rookie season) should add a lot to the offense.

[Mr. WEO]

5 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

That the numbers for our two main RBs are close was part of my point.  It supports the issue being with the blocking and not with them.  Also both have very good yards after contact which supports them being good RBs. 

 

 

I'm not swayed by a stat that "ranks" a ton of players within a small variance.

[BarleyNY]

20 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

I'm not swayed by a stat that "ranks" a ton of players within a small variance.

It’s actually a very sizable variance relative to yards per carry and across all 51 ranked players. 

[Mr. WEO]

7 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

It’s actually a very sizable variance relative to yards per carry and across all 51 ranked players. 

 

4 of the 51 (and 4 off the top 12) are QBs, who can't count in this conversation.

 

After the top 12, the next 34 RBs are within 1 yard of each other.

[Utah John]

I watched an analysis of the RBs in pass blocking, particularly blitz pickups.  Moss excels while Motor struggles.  I think this goes back to excellent coaching at Utah, which prepared Moss for the life of an NFL RB on a passing team.  I think this is also why Moss was drafted.

 

As long as Allen is the QB, the Bills will be a passing team that runs from time to time.  The O line was built for pass blocking.  The entire offense is built around making the passing game work.  And why not?  With our QB and WRs, of course that's just playing to our strengths.

 

If Singletary doesn't make it past this year with the Bills, it will be because he hasn't improved enough on blitz pickups.  I have no idea whether Brieda is any good at pass blocking, but I anticipate that given Brieda's superior speed and quickness over Motor, that Brieda is here now to be ready for Motor leaving next year.  I hope things don't go this way. I like Singletary and I hope he grows into the role the team wants him to fill.

[In Summary]

9 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/rushing_advanced.htm

 

Rushing yards before contact is generally considered a good measure of how effective a team’s OL is in run blocking.  While the Bills OL seems to be built to pass block well, they do not seem to be doing a good job at all of run blocking.  The exception would be if RBs aren’t doing a good job of finding/hitting the holes opened for them.

 

The link above shows Singletary 3rd worst in the league with 1.5 yards before contact/attempt and Moss 9th worst at 1.8 ybc/a.  I think it is unlikely that both are that bad at finding and hitting holes so it looks like it on the OL.

 

Both backs seem to be excellent at getting yards after contact though.  Link  Singletary is 2nd with 2.9 and Moss is 13th with 2.4.  Looking at those numbers I can certainly see why the Bills didn’t draft a RB, but it makes me wonder why they didn’t try to upgrade the OL, especially the interior. 

Good post. I remember Thurman comparing favorably to Emmet in yards after contact while Dallas had arguably the better line.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

9 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/rushing_advanced.htm

 

Rushing yards before contact is generally considered a good measure of how effective a team’s OL is in run blocking.  While the Bills OL seems to be built to pass block well, they do not seem to be doing a good job at all of run blocking.  The exception would be if RBs aren’t doing a good job of finding/hitting the holes opened for them.

 

The link above shows Singletary 3rd worst in the league with 1.5 yards before contact/attempt and Moss 9th worst at 1.8 ybc/a.  I think it is unlikely that both are that bad at finding and hitting holes so it looks like it on the OL.

 

Both backs seem to be excellent at getting yards after contact though.  Link  Singletary is 2nd with 2.9 and Moss is 13th with 2.4.  Looking at those numbers I can certainly see why the Bills didn’t draft a RB, but it makes me wonder why they didn’t try to upgrade the OL, especially the interior. 

 

9 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I heard this on a segment/podcast not too long ago but didn't know where to look it up.  

I think they're going to change their run blocking philosophy since we are essentially going with the same everything.

 

This is like Deja Vu all over again as this was also just discussed in an article in today's Athletic.  Basically stating the same thing that the issue wasn't all on the RB's.

 

As far as upgrading the interior, wonder how much of season was Mongo not back to full strength, Morse and Ford were both out some too.  They did draft a guard and signed a fairly highly thought of FA backup guard so maybe they are expecting more.

 

[BarleyNY]

28 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

4 of the 51 (and 4 off the top 12) are QBs, who can't count in this conversation.

 

After the top 12, the next 34 RBs are within 1 yard of each other.

The range of yards per rush by RBs is 5.6-3.2.  The range of yards before contact among RBs is 3.3-1.4.  There is a fat middle to that bell curve, but the Bills have two RBs on the lower tail of it at 1.8 and 1.5.  On one hand getting to average or a little above in run blocking would not add that much to total yards in a season.  On the other, that kind of improvement might help us close out games on the ground and balance the offense a little.  

[Doc]

25 minutes ago, In Summary said:

Good post. I remember Thurman comparing favorably to Emmet in yards after contact while Dallas had arguably the better line.

 

Not arguable.  Smith gained 2/3 of his yards before he was ever touched by a defender.

[Mr. WEO]

15 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

The range of yards per rush by RBs is 5.6-3.2.  The range of yards before contact among RBs is 3.3-1.4.  There is a fat middle to that bell curve, but the Bills have two RBs on the lower tail of it at 1.8 and 1.5.  On one hand getting to average or a little above in run blocking would not add that much to total yards in a season.  On the other, that kind of improvement might help us close out games on the ground and balance the offense a little.  

As I said, the variation is miniscule as 34 of 47 RBs are within a yard.  Not significant.

[JESSEFEFFER]

Big improvement in the running stats in the last 9 vs. the first 7.  Unsettled OL, Moss with turf toe and pass heavy play calls contributed to a slow start.  I'd suspect these yards before contact numbers were really bad in the first 7 games.

 

Edited June 30, 2021 by JESSEFEFFER

[Ethan in Cleveland]

10 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/rushing_advanced.htm

 

Rushing yards before contact is generally considered a good measure of how effective a team’s OL is in run blocking.  While the Bills OL seems to be built to pass block well, they do not seem to be doing a good job at all of run blocking.  The exception would be if RBs aren’t doing a good job of finding/hitting the holes opened for them.

 

The link above shows Singletary 3rd worst in the league with 1.5 yards before contact/attempt and Moss 9th worst at 1.8 ybc/a.  I think it is unlikely that both are that bad at finding and hitting holes so it looks like it on the OL.

 

Both backs seem to be excellent at getting yards after contact though.  Link  Singletary is 2nd with 2.9 and Moss is 13th with 2.4.  Looking at those numbers I can certainly see why the Bills didn’t draft a RB, but it makes me wonder why they didn’t try to upgrade the OL, especially the interior. 

The presumed starting 5 OL did not play a single snap as a unit last year.  A healthy Ford can be a big upgrade at LG.  They spent money bringing back Williams and Feliciano and draft capital on the pass rush.  I have no issues with that approach.  I have my well documented concerns about Morse.  At least they got him to take a pay cut.  I would have drafted C instead of an OT.  Taking two OT's still makes no sense.  

[Doc]

20 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

The presumed starting 5 OL did not play a single snap as a unit last year.  A healthy Ford can be a big upgrade at LG.  They spent money bringing back Williams and Feliciano and draft capital on the pass rush.  I have no issues with that approach.  I have my well documented concerns about Morse.  At least they got him to take a pay cut.  I would have drafted C instead of an OT.  Taking two OT's still makes no sense.  

 

Yeah I think they're banking on continuity and cohesion.  They pretty much know the 5 starting positions so it's now a matter of keeping them together during training camp and pre-season.

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Lack of speed in a small RB is a killer in the NFL.  I think much of the problem with Devins  very low yards before contact/attempt is his lack of speed.   And Zach Moss is no speed demon either.  I dont think the Bills current regime has done a good job at drafting RBs.  I think that is why they signed Matt Breida, we finally have some speed in the backfield.

 

 

YBC isn't really about speed, it's about blocking.

 

When you look at the top ten at the YBC stat link in the OP, it's clear that there are a mix of RB styles there. Derrick Henry is #1, and while he's got really good top speed, he's anything but a fast starter. Zeke is #5. There are breakaway guys and mashers, big and small, all styles.

 

YBC is about how big and how good the hole is.

 

Oh, and saying "Devin's very low yards before contact/attempt" is conflating two completely different things. You're right that Singletary's YBC is not good. But again, that's primarily an OL stat, and the fact that Moss's is similarly bad makes the same point. Singletary's Yards Per Attempt, though, are excellent over the course of his career and very solid indeed last year.

 

If on the other hand you're not talking about Yards Per Attempt and are instead talking about the other figure shown on this chart, YAC/Att (Yards AFTER Contact per Attempt), um, you need to take another look at the chart. Singletary managed 2.9 YAC/Att. How many guys can you find who managed higher than that with 50 or more attempts? I only see two. Two others who tied him. That puts him in the top five, in a three-way tie for 3rd. That's pretty good any way you look at it.

 

The top two RBs on this team have been effective after the hit, and effective overall, at 4.4 YPC last year. Singletary was terrific in 2019. All this without going over round three. Their ability to draft RBs hasn't shown great yet or anything but it certainly looks good so far.

Edited June 30, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

As I said, the variation is miniscule as 34 of 47 RBs are within a yard.  Not significant.

 

 

On the contrary.

 

When you say "within a yard" you're missing the point. You could say they're all within a yard if some got 0.0001 yard and others got 0.9999 yards. Still a huge variance, though. Same with the figure here.

 

Within a yard is a very significant difference when the percentage of difference is so large.

 

If everyone was within a yard between, say 12 and 13 yards, yeah, it's insignificant. Now, that would be minisiscule variation, where the figures only vary around 8%.

 

If on the other hand you're looking at a list (as you are here) where the variation is between 2.0 and 3.0 yards, that's a 50% variation in productivity in that area. That's very significant difference indeed.

 

 

Edited June 30, 2021 by Thurman#1

[machine gun kelly]

6 hours ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I will be interested if Breida changes this, because it could be blocking or it could be that both running backs we run with are similar styles. I do also wonder if the numbers changed much from week 1-4, when no one believes Josh was MVP player, to later in year when they had to be more honest defensively.

Tim, that was my interest in what style does both Breida and/or Moss Singletary gel.  They need to settle in on one style and master it.  Shaw makes a good point in flexibility, but a good running team like the Browns or Titans does one thing very well.

 

I don’t expect a heavy running game as our strength obviously is in pass pro and 10/11 personnel with an exceptional passing scheme.  We were 14th in rushing in 2020 partially because of Allen’s yards.  I don’t expect that to go away so if we could just increase our ypc bringing us up to 10th, that will be significant progress.