Rocky Landing Posted June 25, 2021 Posted June 25, 2021 1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Hughes is, IMO, a better player than Addison though in reining in his "crazy Gary" he may have lost a bit of his edge, too. But I don't think that means McDermott keeps just one. There's a lot to see in training camp. The message is clear on the DL: come into camp in the best shape of your life, and we're bringing in 3 guys for every position who are gonna try to do your job better than you do. Injuries may happen; we hope they won't. Illness may happen; we hope it won't. But other things being equal, what have McDermott and Frazier done to give the impression they will only keep one veteran DE or DT? Look at last year where they kept Murphy on the roster all season, even at the cost of $7M or so they could have realized if they cut him. And there are not even cap savings to be had by cutting Butler or Addison. Myself, I think that McDermott needs to "get over" keeping so many veteran players at different positions primarily for their special teams play. We are gonna cut guys who have potential at their primary position and could develop, like Antonio Williams or C Wade, in favor of veterans like Taiwan Jones. Which is OK for 1 or maybe 2 players, but then we're gonna repeat that theme over and over and over again throughout the roster - LB, DE, S, maybe TE etc. At some point, the gift of a talented ST coach is to be given 1-2 key players and otherwise told to coach the depth and rookies into a servicable ST squad The bold is actually much of what I'm saying. I am predicting that Addison gets moved down the depth chart. Johnson is already depth at the position, going into his third season, and is already a big part of a very good ST squad. I don't believe Addison played ST at all, last season (I might be wrong). It would have been crazy to think that Addison had less value than Johnson last season. This season, especially with the additions, I'm not sure he's worth the roster spot. Of course, I get the value as a veteran. I think most of us understand that with so many additions to the DL, it's going to be a trickier equation than it was last season. I think there's been an assumption-- certainly in the media-- that last year's starters are, more or less, safe. I don't think either of us agree with that, and Matt Parrino's picks above are all pretty much playing it safe-- not a lot of controversy there. My opinion is based on a prediction that Addison falls down the depth chart, and that between Hughes, Lotulelei, and Butler, McD will settle with that as the veteran influence to begin the regular season. I might also argue that veterans were far more important last season, with the limited TC, and preseason.
Bangarang Posted June 25, 2021 Posted June 25, 2021 53 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said: Come on, now. Daryl Johnson has shown he is a good ST player. I'm making the argument that they keep Johnson because of his value on special teams. I did not say they keep him because of his pass rushing, and I did not say that he was a better pass rusher than Addison. I'm making the argument that Addison moves down to a depth player. I think he loses his starting position this season, and that we won't have room for him on the roster. It's just an opinion. If you can't make sense out of my opinion, I don't know what to tell you. McD seems to like what he contributes on ST so far. Not sure he’s really solidified himself as a core player that they are dead set on keeping though. I’ve never noticed him make a play there but I’m also not a ST coach and have no idea what it means for them to do their job well if they aren’t returning kicks or making plays in coverage. You seem to have this fixation on Addison for some reason. It’s kind of odd really considering none of the younger guys have proven they are good enough to take over for him. If that happens then I don’t think anyone will care if Addisons role is reduced or eliminated entirely. Until that happen, I think it’s pretty foolish to pound the table to cut a guy when we don’t know if his replacements are any good. 2
IgotBILLStopay Posted June 25, 2021 Posted June 25, 2021 2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I think you can safely bet that Trubisky is vaccinated. He's playing for his next contract, which means his best opportunity to showcase his abilities and win his next opportunity will come if Allen is unable to play due to injury, illness, or quarantine under NFL rules. No Way does Mitch want the headlines to read "Josh Allen on Covid-19 list; Mitch Trubisky quarantined as close contact. Jake Fromm (or Davis Webb) to start against the KC Chiefs." If not before, as soon as the NFL announced that vaccinated players don't need to quarantine as close contacts, Mitch rolled up his sleeve. Possible - but since we know that Allen is anti-vaccine - doubt McB will want to be one QB injury from someone unknown starting at the most important position. Of course, if Allen is vaccinated by the time the season rolls around, McB might be comfortable going with 2 QBs, which is the question we are addressing. 1
Rocky Landing Posted June 25, 2021 Posted June 25, 2021 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Bangarang said: McD seems to like what he contributes on ST so far. Not sure he’s really solidified himself as a core player that they are dead set on keeping though. I’ve never noticed him make a play there but I’m also not a ST coach and have no idea what it means for them to do their job well if they aren’t returning kicks or making plays in coverage. You seem to have this fixation on Addison for some reason. It’s kind of odd really considering none of the younger guys have proven they are good enough to take over for him. If that happens then I don’t think anyone will care if Addisons role is reduced or eliminated entirely. Until that happen, I think it’s pretty foolish to pound the table to cut a guy when we don’t know if his replacements are any good. I'm really not "fixated" on Addison. It's just a discussion. Honestly, there's not that much to talk about from Parrino's roster projection. It's a strange, new paradigm in Bills fandom that most of the really compelling camp competitions are going to be for depth positions. Of course, anything can happen, but there's really only a handful of positions in which you can't reasonably predict the starters. And, where most of those starting competitions exist, they're not really so impactful in terms of who gets the nod. (Examples: Dane beats out Levi, but they'll both see plenty of game time. Motor beats out Moss, but Moss gets more snaps, etc.) If I seem "fixated" on Addison, it's because I know my prediction is contrary to current conventional wisdom (although, it's certainly not crazy), and to me, the D-line is by far the most interesting discussion in terms of a roster projection, and depth. 6 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said: Possible - but since we know that Allen is anti-vaccine - doubt McB will want to be one QB injury from someone unknown starting at the most important position. Of course, if Allen is vaccinated by the time the season rolls around, McB might be comfortable going with 2 QBs, which is the question we are addressing. Do we? Edited June 25, 2021 by Rocky Landing 1
IgotBILLStopay Posted June 25, 2021 Posted June 25, 2021 1 hour ago, Rocky Landing said: I'm really not "fixated" on Addison. It's just a discussion. Honestly, there's not that much to talk about from Parrino's roster projection. It's a strange, new paradigm in Bills fandom that most of the really compelling camp competitions are going to be for depth positions. Of course, anything can happen, but there's really only a handful of positions in which you can't reasonably predict the starters. And, where most of those starting competitions exist, they're not really so impactful in terms of who gets the nod. (Examples: Dane beats out Levi, but they'll both see plenty of game time. Motor beats out Moss, but Moss gets more snaps, etc.) If I seem "fixated" on Addison, it's because I know my prediction is contrary to current conventional wisdom (although, it's certainly not crazy), and to me, the D-line is by far the most interesting discussion in terms of a roster projection, and depth. Do we? Quite sure as of now. pls google "josh allen vaccine" and you will get at least 50 sites inferring allen is not vaccinated - includes Buffalonews, Democrat and Chronicle, WGRZ (10 questions with Kyle Brandt) etc.
Rocky Landing Posted June 25, 2021 Posted June 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said: Quite sure as of now. pls google "josh allen vaccine" and you will get at least 50 sites inferring allen is not vaccinated - includes Buffalonews, Democrat and Chronicle, WGRZ (10 questions with Kyle Brandt) etc. I'm not quite so sure. From what I can find on the internets, Allen's last substantive statement was way back in April, when he said: “I’m a big statistics and logical guy. So if statistics show it’s the right thing for me to do, I’d do it. Again, I’d go lean the other way, too, if that’s what it said.” Since then, he and the rest of the team (with the notable exception of Cole Beasley) have made it a point to keep the information of who is, and isn't vaccinated out of the public discussion. But, with the amount of discussion, and "education" (McD's word) that has occurred inside the building, and the amount of relevant statistics now available, I would think that if Allen were telling the truth back in April, he would be vaccinated by now.
Saxum Posted June 25, 2021 Posted June 25, 2021 3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Johnson saw his defensive snaps rise to 40% towards the end of the season, but then fall back to 20% or inactive (vs the Ravens) during the playoffs. Johnson was not playing against Ravens for because Trent Murphy was active and he was key component in defense to neutralize Lamar Jackson. He shadowed him on his side of field rather than rushing and allowing his speed to get around him and made no significant yardage running on his side of field. https://www.wgrz.com/article/sports/nfl/bills/buffalo-bills-advance-to-afc-championship-game-with-17-3-win-over-baltimore-ravens-nfl-playoffs/71-fa912bd1-74d5-40f4-a434-9fe4eed82ed3 Quote Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier had emphasized to his players this week that Jackson was a threat to run and that they had to contain him. Buffalo did just that, as Jackson finished with just 34 yards before leaving the game with a concussion at the end of the third quarter. Murphy was also involved on that final play of Jackson.
Jeff1954 Posted June 26, 2021 Posted June 26, 2021 Think three tight ends. Spencer Brown can play the Lee Smith role. Also think we get an experienced cornerback before camp. Both Addison and Butler have renegotiated their contracts. Given the value Beane and McD place on earning and keeping the respect and trust of their players, doubt either would be cut after doing this.
Saxum Posted June 26, 2021 Posted June 26, 2021 (edited) On 6/25/2021 at 9:01 PM, Jeff1954 said: Think three tight ends. Spencer Brown can play the Lee Smith role. Also think we get an experienced cornerback before camp. Both Addison and Butler have renegotiated their contracts. Given the value Beane and McD place on earning and keeping the respect and trust of their players, doubt either would be cut after doing this. Lee Smith was considered best blocking TE in NFL. Bills used him against AFC West due to his knowledge and was left to block some of their best players. Same thing with 8 TDs. Spencer Brown might play as extra lineman but will not be able to do his role. Note: Every TD catch was a hands catch away from body. Not all TEs and WRs do that. Edited June 27, 2021 by Limeaid 2
Richard Noggin Posted June 26, 2021 Posted June 26, 2021 16 hours ago, Bangarang said: This doesn’t make any sense. Daryl Johnson is the definition of a fringe guy but for some unknown reason you think he has much more value than Addison. This isn’t a rebuilding team where we should just give the young guys big roles because we don’t care about losing games. Antonio Williams and Taiwan Jones may play the same position on paper but their roles and skill sets are not the same. What you’re proposing makes this team worse. I appreciate your response. But I don't agree. Addison and Jones represent poor value WRT to the cap, the depth chart, and continuing roster development. Daryl Johnson is important to STs, and can probably produce more efficiently at DE commensurate with his salary (compared to Addison's, who has no ST value, and is a million years old, and not super productive). Don't pay Addison for past production (with a previous team) if it means cutting a more valuable, younger, cheaper guy who you've been developing. Taiwan Jones has ZERO positional value, and he's also getting old. (He did have that one improbable first down...was it a catch and run?...in his first stint with the team that got the sideline all juiced up. But he's...limited.) The Bills must have other gunner candidates who offer enough positional depth or developmental value to warrant cutting a one-dimensional guy who covers punts for a team that didn't exactly punt a lot last season. Maybe the drafted WR, Stevenson, can cover punts? He's got upside worth investing in, for example. Maybe Wildgoose? You see my point (even if you don't agree). I'd like to see the roster filled out with more promising offensive and defensive depth while ALSO not ignoring STs. It's what they'll need to do once the QB is locked up long term for a big chunk of the cap. Best get a jump on it now and bring those youngins along. Plus, it's MUCH more fun for us keyboard/fantasy/Madden GMs who were trained for so long to look forward to the offseason roster building more than the regular season mediocrity. Basically, don't trade away Wyatt Teller and keep Vlad Ducasse. (I have not deeply vetted this analogy, but in spirit it captures my thesis: younger, less proven players will be VITAL to the team's sustained success moving forward.) Addison and Jones are dead-end, overpriced roster spots you'll have to replace soon anyways. Get on with it. 1
Bangarang Posted June 26, 2021 Posted June 26, 2021 44 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said: I appreciate your response. But I don't agree. Addison and Jones represent poor value WRT to the cap, the depth chart, and continuing roster development. Daryl Johnson is important to STs, and can probably produce more efficiently at DE commensurate with his salary (compared to Addison's, who has no ST value, and is a million years old, and not super productive). Don't pay Addison for past production (with a previous team) if it means cutting a more valuable, younger, cheaper guy who you've been developing. Taiwan Jones has ZERO positional value, and he's also getting old. (He did have that one improbable first down...was it a catch and run?...in his first stint with the team that got the sideline all juiced up. But he's...limited.) The Bills must have other gunner candidates who offer enough positional depth or developmental value to warrant cutting a one-dimensional guy who covers punts for a team that didn't exactly punt a lot last season. Maybe the drafted WR, Stevenson, can cover punts? He's got upside worth investing in, for example. Maybe Wildgoose? You see my point (even if you don't agree). I'd like to see the roster filled out with more promising offensive and defensive depth while ALSO not ignoring STs. It's what they'll need to do once the QB is locked up long term for a big chunk of the cap. Best get a jump on it now and bring those youngins along. Plus, it's MUCH more fun for us keyboard/fantasy/Madden GMs who were trained for so long to look forward to the offseason roster building more than the regular season mediocrity. Basically, don't trade away Wyatt Teller and keep Vlad Ducasse. (I have not deeply vetted this analogy, but in spirit it captures my thesis: younger, less proven players will be VITAL to the team's sustained success moving forward.) Addison and Jones are dead-end, overpriced roster spots you'll have to replace soon anyways. Get on with it. Addison’s potential replacement(s) are already on the roster and none of them include Johnson. There’s a good chance he doesn’t even make the team. It’s pretty clear that BB and McD knew they needed to get younger on the edge given their last two drafts. Johnson is not that guy though. 1
GunnerBill Posted June 26, 2021 Posted June 26, 2021 (edited) Are the Bills still in a division with Bill Belichick? If the answer is yes then they still need to keep special teams players at a higher rate than teams who do not play against him twice a year. We already lost a game to him in 2019 largely down to a blocked punt and it is even more vital now that we are a more talented team on O and D that we don't leave a route for him to make special teams the great equaliser. @Hapless Bills Fan states above that aside from the standard 3 specialists the Bills kept 7 core special teams players last year: Andre Roberts, Taiwan Jones, Siran Neal, Tyler Matakevich, Darryl Johnson, Andre Smith and Reggie Gilliam. I'd actually add an 8th name to that - Jaquan Johnson. They all played more than 40% of special teams snaps and of them only Johnson played more than 20% of the snaps on O or D (Siran Neal was 2nd at 11%). But I think you need to break it down even further than that to really understand the decisions that the Bills have to make in terms of the roles those players filled. Returner Candidates on the roster: Isaiah McKenzie, Marquez Stevenson & Brandon Powell Andre Roberts is gone but his replacement is going to come from the receiver room. McKenzie has the inside track on the job and if he wins it the Bills might consider that a special teams roster "saving" given he also has a designated role on offense as their jet sweep guy, backup slot and general depth receiver. He played over 25% of offensive snaps in 2020. If Stevenson or Powell was to win the job that is more of a like for like switch with Roberts and likely blocks the path to the roster for an Isaiah Hodgins or a Jake Kumerow. Gunner Candidates on the roster: Taiwan Jones, Siran Neal, Taron Johnson, Gabe Davis, Jake Kumerow, Cam Lewis & Rachad Wildgoose Jones and Neal were the Bills starters at gunner last year and were an effective duo. Taron Johnson was about the next most used in that role but given his heavy load on defense (played over 75% of the snaps) I think they would be reluctant to use him as any more than a dependable deputy to go in if one of their starting gunners gets nicked up in a game. If my memory serves, Gabe Davis did it some as a young player at UCF but again given his growing role on offense here and the fact he only played 32 special teams snaps as a rookie I wouldn't bank on an increased role for him. The intriguing one is Jake Kumerow who does look a very able gunner to me and did it for a stretch in Green Bay. He plays with that slightly reckless edge you want at the spot and so could the Bills consider keeping only 3 backs, moving on from Taiwan Jones and keeping Kumerow as a 7th receiver and primary gunner? Possible. His more likely route though is for McKenzie to win the return job and then Kumerow to win the battle for the 6th receiver spot and force his way into the gunner rotation. The two young corners are longshot options but given their lack of experience I'd be surprised if the Bills kept either of them to be primary gunners. Depth corner and grooming one to take over from Siran Neal who is a FA after the season is more likely. Personal Protector Candidates on the roster: Jaquan Johnson & Reggie Gilliam This is a defined and important job and was one of Pat Di Marco's roles during his time with the Bills. Early last season they tried a few guys in that spot - Gilliam had a go and I'm pretty sure Matakevich had a go too, but by the season's end Jaquan Johnson had nailed that spot down and even threw the trick play pass to Siran Neal against the Patriots. His job on the roster as a depth safety would seem safe in any event with Dean Marlowe now gone, but Jaquan Johnson is a pretty safe bet to be the Bills primary personal protector in 2021. Inside guys Candidates on the roster: Tyler Matakevich, Darryl Johnson, Andre Smith, Tyrel Dodson, Tyrell Adams, Damar Hamlin, Reggie Gilliam & Boogie Basham This group breaks down into two main categories. The guys who play as wing protectors in punt coverage and the guys who play as the inside wedge guys in kick and punt return. The Bills really like Gilliam as an inside guy on kick returns and as their main wing protector (their opposite wing protector in 2020 was Dean Marlowe who has already moved on) and I'd be surprised if they didn't find a way to keep him on the 53. Damar Hamlin played teams in college and might get a shot at backfilling Marlowe's role. Only Tyler Matakevich played more snaps inside on punt return and kick returns than Darryl Johnson in 2020 so the fact that Johnson finds himself potentially on the outside looking in at the defensive end battle is another special teams issue the Bills must grapple with. I do wonder if maybe Boogie Basham could pick up some of those jobs while he works his way up the defensive end depth chart but I'm not aware of him having done teams at Wake Forest and so it would be a steep learning curve which might make it a long shot. More likely that role is filled by a backup linebacker which you would think secures Andre Smith's spot on the roster and potentially favours Tyrell Adams too who has some experience of playing those roles in Houston. It could even put AJ Klein's spot on the roster in a little jeopardy if the Bills move on from Johnson and so have to prioritise better teams players among their backup 'backers. Klein did play some teams last year and was a good teams player earlier in his career but the younger legs behind him make that and interesting decision for Beane and co. My point in this is simply to try and demonstrate that there are some pretty different and distinct jobs on special teams that you can't just swap guys in and out of. You can't say "oh cut Taiwan Jones and keep Marquez Stevenson and it's a 1 for 1." It doesn't work like that. You can even break the inside guys down further but I didn't want to bore people. Essentially I think if you want Jones off the roster the most likely candidate to force him off is Jake Kumerow and I guess I'd be really surprised if Gilliam doesn't find a way to stick. McKenzie filling the returner job would give them some additional flexibility and they might need that to adjust for the loss of Darryl Johnson elsewhere - or to allow them to hold onto Johnson just for the teams role. Whichever way they go I think you can expect there to be half a dozen core ST guys on the roster again in 2021. Edited June 26, 2021 by GunnerBill 4 3 8
IgotBILLStopay Posted June 26, 2021 Posted June 26, 2021 8 hours ago, GunnerBill said: Are the Bills still in a division with Bill Belichick? If the answer is yes then they still need to keep special teams players at a higher rate than teams who do not play against him twice a year. We already lost a game to him in 2019 largely down to a blocked punt and it is even more vital now that we are a more talented team on O and D that we don't leave a route for him to make special teams the great equaliser. @Hapless Bills Fan states above that aside from the standard 3 specialists the Bills kept 7 core special teams players last year: Andre Roberts, Taiwan Jones, Siran Neal, Tyler Matakevich, Darryl Johnson, Andre Smith and Reggie Gilliam. I'd actually add an 8th name to that - Jaquan Johnson. They all played more than 40% of special teams snaps and of them only Johnson played more than 20% of the snaps on O or D (Siran Neal was 2nd at 11%). But I think you need to break it down even further than that to really understand the decisions that the Bills have to make in terms of the roles those players filled. Returner Candidates on the roster: Isaiah McKenzie, Marquez Stevenson & Brandon Powell Andre Roberts is gone but his replacement is going to come from the receiver room. McKenzie has the inside track on the job and if he wins it the Bills might consider that a special teams roster "saving" given he also has a designated role on offense as their jet sweep guy, backup slot and general depth receiver. He played over 25% of offensive snaps in 2020. If Stevenson or Powell was to win the job that is more of a like for like switch with Roberts and likely blocks the path to the roster for an Isaiah Hodgins or a Jake Kumerow. Gunner Candidates on the roster: Taiwan Jones, Siran Neal, Taron Johnson, Gabe Davis, Jake Kumerow, Cam Lewis & Rachad Wildgoose Jones and Neal were the Bills starters at gunner last year and were an effective duo. Taron Johnson was about the next most used in that role but given his heavy load on defense (played over 75% of the snaps) I think they would be reluctant to use him as any more than a dependable deputy to go in if one of their starting gunners gets nicked up in a game. If my memory serves, Gabe Davis did it some as a young player at UCF but again given his growing role on offense here and the fact he only played 32 special teams snaps as a rookie I wouldn't bank on an increased role for him. The intriguing one is Jake Kumerow who does look a very able gunner to me and did it for a stretch in Green Bay. He plays with that slightly reckless edge you want at the spot and so could the Bills consider keeping only 3 backs, moving on from Taiwan Jones and keeping Kumerow as a 7th receiver and primary gunner? Possible. His more likely route though is for McKenzie to win the return job and then Kumerow to win the battle for the 6th receiver spot and force his way into the gunner rotation. The two young corners are longshot options but given their lack of experience I'd be surprised if the Bills kept either of them to be primary gunners. Depth corner and grooming one to take over from Siran Neal who is a FA after the season is more likely. Personal Protector Candidates on the roster: Jaquan Johnson & Reggie Gilliam This is a defined and important job and was one of Pat Di Marco's roles during his time with the Bills. Early last season they tried a few guys in that spot - Gilliam had a go and I'm pretty sure Matakevich had a go too, but by the season's end Jaquan Johnson had nailed that spot down and even threw the trick play pass to Siran Neal against the Patriots. His job on the roster as a depth safety would seem safe in any event with Dean Marlowe now gone, but Jaquan Johnson is a pretty safe bet to be the Bills primary personal protector in 2021. Inside guys Candidates on the roster: Tyler Matakevich, Darryl Johnson, Andre Smith, Tyrel Dodson, Tyrell Adams, Damar Hamlin, Reggie Gilliam & Boogie Basham This group breaks down into two main categories. The guys who play as wing protectors in punt coverage and the guys who play as the inside wedge guys in kick and punt return. The Bills really like Gilliam as an inside guy on kick returns and as their main wing protector (their opposite wing protector in 2020 was Dean Marlowe who has already moved on) and I'd be surprised if they didn't find a way to keep him on the 53. Damar Hamlin played teams in college and might get a shot at backfilling Marlowe's role. Only Tyler Matakevich played more snaps inside on punt return and kick returns than Darryl Johnson in 2020 so the fact that Johnson finds himself potentially on the outside looking in at the defensive end battle is another special teams issue the Bills must grapple with. I do wonder if maybe Boogie Basham could pick up some of those jobs while he works his way up the defensive end depth chart but I'm not aware of him having done teams at Wake Forest and so it would be a steep learning curve which might make it a long shot. More likely that role is filled by a backup linebacker which you would think secures Andre Smith's spot on the roster and potentially favours Tyrell Adams too who has some experience of playing those roles in Houston. It could even put AJ Klein's spot on the roster in a little jeopardy if the Bills move on from Johnson and so have to prioritise better teams players among their backup 'backers. Klein did play some teams last year and was a good teams player earlier in his career but the younger legs behind him make that and interesting decision for Beane and co. My point in this is simply to try and demonstrate that there are some pretty different and distinct jobs on special teams that you can't just swap guys in and out of. You can't say "oh cut Taiwan Jones and keep Marquez Stevenson and it's a 1 for 1." It doesn't work like that. You can even break the inside guys down further but I didn't want to bore people. Essentially I think if you want Jones off the roster the most likely candidate to force him off is Jake Kumerow and I guess I'd be really surprised if Gilliam doesn't find a way to stick. McKenzie filling the returner job would give them some additional flexibility and they might need that to adjust for the loss of Darryl Johnson elsewhere - or to allow them to hold onto Johnson just for the teams role. Whichever way they go I think you can expect there to be half a dozen core ST guys on the roster again in 2021. Very nice post. This is one aspect that almost no beat reporter seriously considers in putting out the 53. I think some of the other UDFAs / late signings might make the 53 through a role on ST. We might find our next Lorax. 1
RyanC883 Posted June 26, 2021 Posted June 26, 2021 (edited) On 6/24/2021 at 2:18 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said: I thought about bumping the "Way Too Early" projection thread but it's almost 2 months old at this point. I thought @Matt Parrino did a reasonable job, though there is plenty of room to debate. https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2021/06/bills-53-man-roster-projection-after-minicamp-fierce-position-battles-expected-in-trenches.html I'm going to condense his predictions in one place, then loop back to discuss QB:QUARTERBACK (2): Josh Allen, Mitchell Trubisky RUNNING BACK (4): Devin Singletary, Zack Moss, Matt Breida, Taiwan Jones WIDE RECEIVER (6): Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Isaiah Hodgins TIGHT END (3): Dawson Knox, Jacob Hollister, Tommy Sweeney OFFENSIVE LINE (9): Dion Dawkins, Daryl Williams, Jon Feliciano, Mitch Morse, Cody Ford, Ike Boettger, Spencer Brown, Tommy Doyle, Ryan Bates DEFENSIVE LINE (10): Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, A.J. Epenesa, Boogie Basham, Greg Rousseau, Star Lotulelei, Ed Oliver, Vernon Butler, Efe Obada, Harrison Phillips LINEBACKER (6): Tremaine Edmunds, Matt Milano, A.J. Klein, Tyrell Adams, Tyler Matakevich, Tyrel Dodson DEFENSIVE BACKS (10): Tre’Davious White, Levi Wallace, Dane Jackson, Taron Johnson, Rachad Wildgoose, Siran Neal, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Jaquan Johnson, Damar Hamlin SPECIALISTS (3): Tyler Bass, Matt Haack, Reid Ferguson Discuss! Thanks for putting this together. It's always fun to see what others thing. Personally, I think the UDFA TE Morris makes the 53, along with RB Williams, who has balled out at every chance he's had. I think Morris over Sweeney, and Williams over Jones, despite Jones greatness on ST, we have likely enough ST guys with the draft and other position depth such as LB. On 6/24/2021 at 2:59 PM, ngbills said: WR is tough to pick. Your assumes Marquez Stevenson, Duke Williams, Kumerow lose out to Hodgins, McK. OL - Douglas, Lamp, Hart all cut. Another battle here and possible trade of one of them or someone on your list. DL - Zimmer cut and Johnson cut. Will be interesting. DB - Still think they bring in another CB and then someone on that list has to go. lots of "good" players won't make it. I see some trades for future mid-round draft picks. Not a bad situation to be in at all! Edited June 26, 2021 by RyanC883
Hapless Bills Fan Posted June 26, 2021 Author Posted June 26, 2021 Really interesting post, Gunner. Thank you for putting this together. 13 hours ago, GunnerBill said: Are the Bills still in a division with Bill Belichick? If the answer is yes then they still need to keep special teams players at a higher rate than teams who do not play against him twice a year. We already lost a game to him in 2019 largely down to a blocked punt and it is even more vital now that we are a more talented team on O and D that we don't leave a route for him to make special teams the great equaliser. This is actually a very valid point. In addition to playing against Belichick 2x a year, we are also playing his disciple Brian Flores 2x a year, and Flores is giving every indication of prioritizing ST as an "equalizer" as well. In our first meeting with the Fins last season, we started drives on our own 3 (booming 63 yd punt downed by their gunner) and our own 6 (51 yd punt, also downed by their gunner). Although we scored a TD on the 1st drive and a FG on the 2nd, those drive starts undoubtedly limit the offensive playcalling and force mistake-free football for fear of a fumble or int becoming 7 points. Then there's the Tennessee game last season with Belichick disciple Meathead - I mean Mike Vrabel. Tennessee has made playoffs the last 2 seasons, and played for the conference championship in 2019; they think they're a playoff-caliber team and have no plans to go away. While last year's Tenn game had other issues, it's hard to dispute that Tennessee's 40 yd return of a 57-yd punt from our own 13 yd line, giving Tennessee a drive start on the Buffalo 30 yd line at a point where the game was tied 7-7, was a morale-buster and maybe a turning point in the game - coming as it did right after the Bills had a drive-start on our own 9 yd line after a -1 yd return by Andre Roberts. Robert's fumble in the 4Q merely helped turn a convincing win into a beat-down rout. Anyway, whatever argument one may advance for the limited importance of ST now a days, I think it's a fair argument "look what division you're in, look who you're playing" I also think it's a fair point to ask, have the Bills really gotten the ROI one would expect for keeping essentially a full lineup of ST starters on the roster (3 specialists plus 8 additional core ST players)? 13 hours ago, GunnerBill said: @Hapless Bills Fan states above that aside from the standard 3 specialists the Bills kept 7 core special teams players last year: Andre Roberts, Taiwan Jones, Siran Neal, Tyler Matakevich, Darryl Johnson, Andre Smith and Reggie Gilliam. I'd actually add an 8th name to that - Jaquan Johnson. Agreed. I didn't name him because I believe the bills view his primary role as backup safety, especially with Dean Marlowe gone. 13 hours ago, GunnerBill said: Returner Candidates on the roster: Isaiah McKenzie, Marquez Stevenson & Brandon Powell Andre Roberts is gone but his replacement is going to come from the receiver room. McKenzie has the inside track on the job and if he wins it the Bills might consider that a special teams roster "saving" given he also has a designated role on offense as their jet sweep guy, backup slot and general depth receiver. He played over 25% of offensive snaps in 2020. If Stevenson or Powell was to win the job that is more of a like for like switch with Roberts and likely blocks the path to the roster for an Isaiah Hodgins or a Jake Kumerow. Agreed. One question for you though, with your better knowledge of rugby than most of us here .....do you see a possible path to the roster for Christian Wade as either the KR or PR, if not both? 13 hours ago, GunnerBill said: Gunner Candidates on the roster: Taiwan Jones, Siran Neal, Taron Johnson, Gabe Davis, Jake Kumerow, Cam Lewis & Rachad Wildgoose Jones and Neal were the Bills starters at gunner last year and were an effective duo. Taron Johnson was about the next most used in that role but given his heavy load on defense (played over 75% of the snaps) I think they would be reluctant to use him as any more than a dependable deputy to go in if one of their starting gunners gets nicked up in a game. If my memory serves, Gabe Davis did it some as a young player at UCF but again given his growing role on offense here and the fact he only played 32 special teams snaps as a rookie I wouldn't bank on an increased role for him. The intriguing one is Jake Kumerow who does look a very able gunner to me and did it for a stretch in Green Bay. He plays with that slightly reckless edge you want at the spot and so could the Bills consider keeping only 3 backs, moving on from Taiwan Jones and keeping Kumerow as a 7th receiver and primary gunner? Possible. His more likely route though is for McKenzie to win the return job and then Kumerow to win the battle for the 6th receiver spot and force his way into the gunner rotation. The two young corners are longshot options but given their lack of experience I'd be surprised if the Bills kept either of them to be primary gunners. Depth corner and grooming one to take over from Siran Neal who is a FA after the season is more likely. Here's the problem I see with Kumerow as a possible gunner, instead of Taiwan Jones: Speed Kills. We all know Pajama Speed isn't Football Speed, but Jones clocked a 4.33 40 yd dash Back in Da Day and he's still freaky fast. Kumerow - well, you can say he's fast for a 6'4", 210 lb guy and he may have trained for speed and gotten faster since college - but he ain't Taiwan Jones fast. Know who is, though? Matt Breida. 4.38 40. So I looked it up, and he put in a good % of ST snaps back in 2017 with SFO, falling off in 2018 and 2019 as he got more offensive snaps. He took 16%-52% of the ST snaps with Miami last season. Anyone know what his role was with them? Because he can actually rush and catch, so having him as a ST player would mean, like Lil' Dirty, keeping a guy who can contribute on offense as well. A point in favor of anyone who replies "That's Crazy Talk" - his injury history, he seemlingly struggles to stay intact which is NOT something you can worry about when playing gunner. OK another possibility to throw out there....do you see a possible path to the roster for Christian Wade as the gunner? He was clocked as 4.53 at the International Pro Day but when I've seen him on the field, I would say he plays faster than that. 13 hours ago, GunnerBill said: Inside guys Candidates on the roster: Tyler Matakevich, Darryl Johnson, Andre Smith, Tyrel Dodson, Tyrell Adams, Damar Hamlin, Reggie Gilliam & Boogie Basham This group breaks down into two main categories. The guys who play as wing protectors in punt coverage and the guys who play as the inside wedge guys in kick and punt return. The Bills really like Gilliam as an inside guy on kick returns and as their main wing protector (their opposite wing protector in 2020 was Dean Marlowe who has already moved on) and I'd be surprised if they didn't find a way to keep him on the 53. Damar Hamlin played teams in college and might get a shot at backfilling Marlowe's role. Only Tyler Matakevich played more snaps inside on punt return and kick returns than Darryl Johnson in 2020 so the fact that Johnson finds himself potentially on the outside looking in at the defensive end battle is another special teams issue the Bills must grapple with. I do wonder if maybe Boogie Basham could pick up some of those jobs while he works his way up the defensive end depth chart but I'm not aware of him having done teams at Wake Forest and so it would be a steep learning curve which might make it a long shot. More likely that role is filled by a backup linebacker which you would think secures Andre Smith's spot on the roster and potentially favours Tyrell Adams too who has some experience of playing those roles in Houston. It could even put AJ Klein's spot on the roster in a little jeopardy if the Bills move on from Johnson and so have to prioritise better teams players among their backup 'backers. Klein did play some teams last year and was a good teams player earlier in his career but the younger legs behind him make that and interesting decision for Beane and co. Didn't they play Kumerow here at times last year? 13 hours ago, GunnerBill said: My point in this is simply to try and demonstrate that there are some pretty different and distinct jobs on special teams that you can't just swap guys in and out of. You can't say "oh cut Taiwan Jones and keep Marquez Stevenson and it's a 1 for 1." It doesn't work like that. You can even break the inside guys down further but I didn't want to bore people. Essentially I think if you want Jones off the roster the most likely candidate to force him off is Jake Kumerow and I guess I'd be really surprised if Gilliam doesn't find a way to stick. McKenzie filling the returner job would give them some additional flexibility and they might need that to adjust for the loss of Darryl Johnson elsewhere - or to allow them to hold onto Johnson just for the teams role. Whichever way they go I think you can expect there to be half a dozen core ST guys on the roster again in 2021. Really good post. Thanks again.
GunnerBill Posted June 26, 2021 Posted June 26, 2021 (edited) 37 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Really interesting post, Gunner. Thank you for putting this together. This is actually a very valid point. In addition to playing against Belichick 2x a year, we are also playing his disciple Brian Flores 2x a year, and Flores is giving every indication of prioritizing ST as an "equalizer" as well. In our first meeting with the Fins last season, we started drives on our own 3 (booming 63 yd punt downed by their gunner) and our own 6 (51 yd punt, also downed by their gunner). Although we scored a TD on the 1st drive and a FG on the 2nd, those drive starts undoubtedly limit the offensive playcalling and force mistake-free football for fear of a fumble or int becoming 7 points. Then there's the Tennessee game last season with Belichick disciple Meathead - I mean Mike Vrabel. Tennessee has made playoffs the last 2 seasons, and played for the conference championship in 2019; they think they're a playoff-caliber team and have no plans to go away. While last year's Tenn game had other issues, it's hard to dispute that Tennessee's 40 yd return of a 57-yd punt from our own 13 yd line, giving Tennessee a drive start on the Buffalo 30 yd line at a point where the game was tied 7-7, was a morale-buster and maybe a turning point in the game - coming as it did right after the Bills had a drive-start on our own 9 yd line after a -1 yd return by Andre Roberts. Robert's fumble in the 4Q merely helped turn a convincing win into a beat-down rout. Anyway, whatever argument one may advance for the limited importance of ST now a days, I think it's a fair argument "look what division you're in, look who you're playing" I also think it's a fair point to ask, have the Bills really gotten the ROI one would expect for keeping essentially a full lineup of ST starters on the roster (3 specialists plus 8 additional core ST players)? Agreed. I didn't name him because I believe the bills view his primary role as backup safety, especially with Dean Marlowe gone. Agreed. One question for you though, with your better knowledge of rugby than most of us here .....do you see a possible path to the roster for Christian Wade as either the KR or PR, if not both? Here's the problem I see with Kumerow as a possible gunner, instead of Taiwan Jones: Speed Kills. We all know Pajama Speed isn't Football Speed, but Jones clocked a 4.33 40 yd dash Back in Da Day and he's still freaky fast. Kumerow - well, you can say he's fast for a 6'4", 210 lb guy and he may have trained for speed and gotten faster since college - but he ain't Taiwan Jones fast. Know who is, though? Matt Breida. 4.38 40. So I looked it up, and he put in a good % of ST snaps back in 2017 with SFO, falling off in 2018 and 2019 as he got more offensive snaps. He took 16%-52% of the ST snaps with Miami last season. Anyone know what his role was with them? Because he can actually rush and catch, so having him as a ST player would mean, like Lil' Dirty, keeping a guy who can contribute on offense as well. A point in favor of anyone who replies "That's Crazy Talk" - his injury history, he seemlingly struggles to stay intact which is NOT something you can worry about when playing gunner. OK another possibility to throw out there....do you see a possible path to the roster for Christian Wade as the gunner? He was clocked as 4.53 at the International Pro Day but when I've seen him on the field, I would say he plays faster than that. Didn't they play Kumerow here at times last year? Really good post. Thanks again. Thanks Hapless. I actually typed it out once then managed to delete before I clicked send. I almost gave up but I thought it was a point worth making so re-did it. I'll try and take your points one by one but apologies if I miss one. 1. Wade as a returner - it absolutely is the rugby wing and full back skill set he has particularly punts. Catch the ball deep hit with guys running towards you, see the gap and hit the gap. It is more similar than taking a hand off and having to fight your way through mess at the line. I still see him as very much a long shot to make the team though. 2. Jaquan Johnson - yea I allude to the fact I think he'd be safe even if he hadn't nailed down the vital role on teams given the current roster but if their presumed 3rd safety hadn't played teams I suspect they might have been more aggressive in pursuing one this offseason who did. 3. Kumerow does lack some speed for a gunner, for sure, and they did use him inside on kick off coverage some last year. But he plays with that abandon you need. 4. Breida - interesting. Hadn't thought of him. He is (or at least was at some point) crazy fast. If he played some teams for San Fran one presumes it was at gunner (because I don't remember him as a returner). 5. Wade as a gunner - not sure I see that. He was not renowned as a hitter in rugby indeed one of the reasons he played so few times for England in XVs was his defensive frailties. He was always a "devastating with ball in hand" guy rather than a complete all round player. Edited June 26, 2021 by GunnerBill 1
NewEra Posted June 26, 2021 Posted June 26, 2021 18 hours ago, Richard Noggin said: I appreciate your response. But I don't agree. Addison and Jones represent poor value WRT to the cap, the depth chart, and continuing roster development. Daryl Johnson is important to STs, and can probably produce more efficiently at DE commensurate with his salary (compared to Addison's, who has no ST value, and is a million years old, and not super productive). Don't pay Addison for past production (with a previous team) if it means cutting a more valuable, younger, cheaper guy who you've been developing. Taiwan Jones has ZERO positional value, and he's also getting old. (He did have that one improbable first down...was it a catch and run?...in his first stint with the team that got the sideline all juiced up. But he's...limited.) The Bills must have other gunner candidates who offer enough positional depth or developmental value to warrant cutting a one-dimensional guy who covers punts for a team that didn't exactly punt a lot last season. Maybe the drafted WR, Stevenson, can cover punts? He's got upside worth investing in, for example. Maybe Wildgoose? You see my point (even if you don't agree). I'd like to see the roster filled out with more promising offensive and defensive depth while ALSO not ignoring STs. It's what they'll need to do once the QB is locked up long term for a big chunk of the cap. Best get a jump on it now and bring those youngins along. Plus, it's MUCH more fun for us keyboard/fantasy/Madden GMs who were trained for so long to look forward to the offseason roster building more than the regular season mediocrity. Basically, don't trade away Wyatt Teller and keep Vlad Ducasse. (I have not deeply vetted this analogy, but in spirit it captures my thesis: younger, less proven players will be VITAL to the team's sustained success moving forward.) Addison and Jones are dead-end, overpriced roster spots you'll have to replace soon anyways. Get on with it. the conversation between Beane and Addison (or addisons agent) will determine whether or not Addison stays or is cut imo. If Beane gave him any reassurance that if he took a pay cut, he’ll be safe, than that is what will and should happen.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted June 27, 2021 Author Posted June 27, 2021 20 hours ago, Richard Noggin said: I appreciate your response. But I don't agree. Addison and Jones represent poor value WRT to the cap, the depth chart, and continuing roster development. Perhaps you could clarify what you mean here with regard to this season, cap and depth chart? As far as the cap, Addison's cap hit this year is almost exactly the same if we keep him, or if we cut him. He has $2M out of $4M salary guaranteed per Overthecap, and $2M of amortized signing bonus which will accelerate into this year if he's cut, to offset the salary savings. Taiwan Jones re-upped for practically vet minimum ($1.1M salary of which $400k is guaranteed, $1.6M cap hit) with $700k dead cap from bonus and guarantees. That's pretty modest. Both of them are at the top of the depth chart for their relative positions until proven otherwise. You may believe that Bam Johnson or Epenesa or Obada or Rousseau can out-play Addison but it has to be proved on the field. "Continuing roster development" I got no argument there. Quote Daryl Johnson is important to STs, and can probably produce more efficiently at DE commensurate with his salary (compared to Addison's, who has no ST value, and is a million years old, and not super productive). Don't pay Addison for past production (with a previous team) if it means cutting a more valuable, younger, cheaper guy who you've been developing. What is this "produce more efficiently commensurate with his salary" bit? I don't think that matters. Addison is going to get paid regardless of whether he's on the roster, or not. The question is who is the more complete, contributing player on the field right now. Since Johnson sat all game vs. Baltimore and saw his snaps cut in the other playoff games, the Bills coaches would appear to feel he still has development needs when it comes to containing the run. Quote The Bills must have other gunner candidates who offer enough positional depth or developmental value to warrant cutting a one-dimensional guy who covers punts for a team that didn't exactly punt a lot last season. Maybe the drafted WR, Stevenson, can cover punts? He's got upside worth investing in, for example. Maybe Wildgoose? You see my point (even if you don't agree). Until you see them actually function as gunners, you don't know what you've got. I understand (and actually agree with) your overall point that the Bills need to work towards having more positional abilities in their core special teamers, but even the Superbowl Bills kept a gunner on the roster (what, you don't think they coulda drafted or signed a better WR than Tasker?), but I think it's silly to assume it's a job just anyone can do. It also seems a bit contradictory - you seem to be arguing that Johnson, who was inactive during an entire playoff game, should be given a spot over the guy who was less productive than we hoped but still made some plays because of his ST play - then you're turning around and arguing that Taiwan Jones shouldn't be given a spot because of his ST play.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted June 27, 2021 Author Posted June 27, 2021 Perhaps you could clarify what you mean here with regard to this season, cap and depth chart? As far as the cap, Addison's cap hit this year is almost exactly the same if we keep him, or if we cut him. He has $2M out of $4M salary guaranteed per Overthecap, and $2M of amortized signing bonus which will accelerate into this year if he's cut, to offset the salary savings. Taiwan Jones re-upped for practically vet minimum ($1.1M salary of which $400k is guaranteed, $1.6M cap hit) with $700k dead cap from bonus and guarantees. That's pretty modest. Both of them are at the top of the depth chart for their relative positions until proven otherwise. You may believe that Bam Johnson or Epenesa or Obada or Rousseau can out-play Addison but it has to be proved on the field. "Continuing roster development" I got no argument there. Quote Daryl Johnson is important to STs, and can probably produce more efficiently at DE commensurate with his salary (compared to Addison's, who has no ST value, and is a million years old, and not super productive). Don't pay Addison for past production (with a previous team) if it means cutting a more valuable, younger, cheaper guy who you've been developing. What is this "produce more efficiently commensurate with his salary" bit? I don't think that matters. Addison is going to get paid regardless of whether he's on the roster, or not. The question is who is the more complete, contributing player on the field right now. Since Johnson sat all game vs. Baltimore and saw his snaps cut in the other playoff games, the Bills coaches would appear to feel he still has development needs when it comes to containing the run. Quote The Bills must have other gunner candidates who offer enough positional depth or developmental value to warrant cutting a one-dimensional guy who covers punts for a team that didn't exactly punt a lot last season. Maybe the drafted WR, Stevenson, can cover punts? He's got upside worth investing in, for example. Maybe Wildgoose? You see my point (even if you don't agree). Until you see them actually function as gunners, you don't know what you've got. I understand (and actually agree with) your overall point that the Bills need to work towards having more positional abilities in their core special teamers, but even the Superbowl Bills kept a gunner on the roster (what, you don't think they coulda drafted or signed a better WR than Tasker?), but I think it's silly to assume it's a job just anyone can do. It also seems a bit contradictory - you seem to be arguing that Johnson, who was inactive during an entire playoff game, should be given a spot over the guy who was less productive than we hoped but still made some plays because of his ST play - then you're turning around and arguing that Taiwan Jones shouldn't be given a spot because of his ST play. 20 hours ago, Richard Noggin said: Basically, don't trade away Wyatt Teller and keep Vlad Ducasse. (I have not deeply vetted this analogy, but in spirit it captures my thesis: younger, less proven players will be VITAL to the team's sustained success moving forward.) Addison and Jones are dead-end, overpriced roster spots you'll have to replace soon anyways. Get on with it. You need to vet your analogies at a shallow level then, because Ducasse was released in early August while Wyatt Teller was traded to the Browns at the end of August, just before roster cutdown. The player who was kept instead of Teller was Spencer Long. In hindsight, with Teller having developed into one of the best guards in the NFL on a power-run team and Mitch Morse starting all 16 games at center in 2019 and playing basically all of 13/15 "meaningfuls", that looks like a dumb decision. But in the context of the decision at the time, the Bills were determined to ensure that Allen had a better center to play with in 2019. Morse was out with a concussion all preseason and it wasn't clear how durable he'd be when he returned. Long had actually played 3 seasons at C with a reasonable level of competence (>> Bodine). He made the roster as the backup C with the positional flexibility to play G. Jon Feliciano had been the backup C in Oakland in '16 and '17 and had started or played significant snaps at RG and LG in a handful of games but never took a gametime snap at C - Hudson was a Machine and played 100% of every snap in those years. So what looks in hindsight like a stupid decision to move on from a promising young OLman, was at the time a prudent decision to ensure that their young 2nd year QB had a solid NFL center to play behind (one way or the other) and to keep the G with higher positional flexibility (RG, LG, backup C). It's not always about the player with the highest potential, sometimes it's about the player with the better match for the needs of the team.
Richard Noggin Posted June 27, 2021 Posted June 27, 2021 As usual, my fellow Bills fans in this thread present really sharp, evidence-based perspectives on considerations I often treat with less...diligence. Nevertheless I think many of us agree on the broad strokes: that we'd like it if the Bills decide to hold onto a few (or even just a couple) more young players with developmental (or more immediate) potential at the expense of older guys on expiring deals. McD loves himself some veteran leadership, but hopefully the team's young core of locked-up guys is ready to lead with a few less vets there to help.
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