53 Man Roster: Projection After OTA/Minicamp

[GunnerBill]

12 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

DB:

One of the UDFAs will shine in TC, and surprise everyone. In fact, I think Tariq Thomson generated more buzz during OTAs than Damar Hamlin did. I know Hamlin got a lot of buzz right after the draft as being a late round pick that could make the 53, but that had more to do with the departure of Dean Marlowe. Of course, OTAs don't mean too much, but I think it's a pretty level playing field for these lower depth players.

 

 

 

My guy 😍. I had a high 4th on him. Still surprised he wasn't drafted. One of those guys who won't wow you with testing numbers but is a football player who stands out when you put the tape on.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

16 hours ago, Mike in Horseheads said:

What is this a Bills football thread?

Good thing you've got the goat out creating a cash flow, so you can visit here and cast aspersions at the fine variety of threads offered. 🤨

*
😁

Edited June 25, 2021 by Ridgewaycynic2013

[SCBills]

Cant disagree much.  
 

I’d probably try to find a way to get Stevenson on the 53 if he shows capable.  We have vertical threats in Diggs, Davis and Sanders - but none of them are burner types. 

 

What I’m struck by is how GOOD this roster is.  Just strong and solid.   I’m also struck by how nobody jumps off the page as impact players - aside from JA, Tre White and Diggs.   
 

Looking at the other contenders you see:

 

Mahomes with Kelce, Hill, Mathieu, Jones and Clark.

 

Baker with Chubb, Hunt, Landry, Beckham, Hooper, Garrett and Ward.

 

Tannehill with Henry, Julio, AJ

 

Feels like we have a team more like the Colts, with talent everywhere, dependent upon the QB to take it to the next level, but without the star power some others have.   
 

We saw what that looked like in Josh Allen vs Phillip Rivers.  We also saw what that looked like against Mahomes.  
 

I expect our defense is take a big step forward to being excellent this year, but more as a collective unit that just rotates in pressure all game. 
 

I expect Josh to improve, but perhaps with slightly lesser numbers as I believe/hope we will run the ball better.  
 

I would take a flyer on Ertz if he ever becomes available, simply because I’d take a shot on him being that third impact player on Offense.  Not that he’s a game breaker, but a smart/reliable TE that can destroy zone coverage would make a ton of plays in this offense. 

This 53 looks excellent, and the fact most of us can only come up with 2-3 tweaks is pretty amazing. 

 

Edited June 25, 2021 by SCBills

[Bangarang]

6 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

Please, McBeane, just say NO to Taiwan Jones. And NO to Jake Fromm. And NO to several other fringe guys who could be replaced by promising young talent. 

 

I'd like to see Mario Addison OFF the roster, for example. Daryl Johnson has much more value, or maybe one of the lesser known DTs. Or some other position entirely. Someone with upside. It's time to turn it over to drafted players (or otherwise acquired younger talent) at several positions. 

 

Let's see Antonio Williams over Taiwan Jones. Whatever. Get crazy. Cut the cords with "safer" players at positions where there is younger talent to develop. Let's not have another Wyatt Teller situation, if we can avoid it.

 

That undrafted TE looks intriguing. The drafted WR has traits our WR room is otherwise lacking. Et cetera.

This doesn’t make any sense.
 

Daryl Johnson is the definition of a fringe guy but for some unknown reason you think he has much more value than Addison. 
 

This isn’t a rebuilding team where we should just give the young guys big roles because we don’t care about losing games. 

 

Antonio Williams and Taiwan Jones may play the same position on paper but their roles and skill sets are not the same. 
 

What you’re proposing makes this team worse. 

[CorkScrewHill]

17 hours ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Drafting Doyle on top of Spencer Brown was just stupid.  He isn't making the final roster.  I hope we can find room for Stevenson and Zimmer.  Tyrell A may push Tryel D off the roster as well.  

In the 5th round with an already deep team you are talking about just taking a stab at finding a hidden gem. Few 5th rounders make an impact so you should take the player you think has the best chance of developing into a diamond.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Addison's renegotiated contract is a bit tough to understand, but the bottom line seems to be it costs almost as much in dead cap to keep him as to cut him, because $2M of his $4M salary is now fully guaranteed and he has $2M of his signing bonus split into a void year next season....so the $2M salary saved by cutting him is offset by accelerating the signing bonus into this season.

 

Plus, Frazier seems to like to play veterans and ease rookies in, maybe too slowly.  So unless one of the rookies just comes in, masters the playbook, and plays like his ass is on fire and sacks/TFL will put it out, I think Addison stays.  And even then, they'll want to hedge their bets. 

 

It's a tough conundrum the Bills have set up for themselves. 

 

But if I were a vet, I wouldn't come to camp assuming I can coast.  Not saving money wouldn't stop Beane from sending the Turk, I think.

 

 

A couple points:

If the Bills want to hang on to all their rookies and some younger talent, at some point they're going to have to pick and choose who they keep for special teams.

We have Taiwan Jones, Siran Neal, Bam (Daryl) Johnson, Andre Smith, and Tyler Matakevich all primarily on the team for their ST abilities.

 

I really liked how Matakevich played in the 3 games where he got some defensive snaps.  Andre Smith, not so much in the 1st NWE game but thought he did well against Miami (counterpoint that they were kinda heading for the bus in the 2nd half).

 

Beane went out of his way to praise Daryl Johnson in his presser.

 

But Maybe, just Maybe, they're gonna need to lighten up on the ST load.

 

 

What do the Bills typically keep?  10?

 

DEFENSIVE LINE (10):

DE: Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, A.J. Epenesa, Boogie Basham, Greg Rousseau, Efe Obada,

DT: Star Lotulelei, Ed Oliver, Vernon Butler, Harrison Phillips

Matt P's projected cuts: Justin Zimmer, Darryl Johnson, Mike Love, Bryan Cox Jr., Brandin Bryant, Treyvon Hester, Eli Ankou

 

This is one of the biggest "I don't know what's gonna happen" positions to me.

 

 

 

 

 

This is a point.  I suspect a couple promising young OL and DL may develop an injury.

 

Agree they either will need to lighten up on the ST players or let some of these other names go, i.e. D Johnson types.

 

I'd swap out Zimmer for Phillips as they seem to really like Zimmer.  The only thing Phillips has going for him is he may be the best backup for Star.

 

Yeah they better stop leaving those banana peels on the locker room floor. 

[Rocky Landing]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

This doesn’t make any sense.
 

Daryl Johnson is the definition of a fringe guy but for some unknown reason you think he has much more value than Addison. 
 

This isn’t a rebuilding team where we should just give the young guys big roles because we don’t care about losing games. 

 

Antonio Williams and Taiwan Jones may play the same position on paper but their roles and skill sets are not the same. 
 

What you’re proposing makes this team worse. 

It seems inevitable to me that Addison gets pushed down the depth chart by players like Epenesa, Obada, and eventually the two rooks. At that point do you hold onto a 34-year old depth player in decline, or the younger guy, who is a ST stand-out? If you place value on ST (Beane/McD certainly do), then yes, Daryl Johnson has more value than Mario Addison.

[IgotBILLStopay]

14 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

D

14 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

1. At least two of Butler, Phillips and Addison are not making it.

 

2. Will go with 3 QBs (so add Fromm)

 

3. Based on reports from OTAs, not impressed by Doyle so far - so my dark horse cut candidate despite being a 5th rounder

Discuss/justify.  Given McD's love of DL rotation, if Butler and Phillips don't make it, AFAIK that would leave Star Lotulelei as the only 1TDT on the team.

I don't see that happening.  Who makes it instead?

 

 

The Doyle thing is a puzzle to me - drafting him, plans for him, all of that stuff.

 

1.

a. The drafting of Rousseau and Basham and the emergence of Epenesa has to make Addison expendable since Addison cannot play ST. Not enough roster spots to make the math work. There is even an outside chance that the Bills trade Hughes, in which case they may retain Addison. But, at this point, I think Hughes' play is a notch above Addison's. By the time TC ends, the kids woulda learned a lot from Addison. 

 

b. Bills are signing a bunch of DTs to the roster. And these look like guys, who, if they have recovered fully from their injuries, could contribute if given a chance. In other words, they appear to be more than camp bodies, which tells me they are not fully sold on Phillips / Butler. 

 

c. Also, Boogie and, in a pinch, Rousseau, can slide inside. That, and the availability of players cut by other teams,  can make one or both of Butler and Phillips expendable. If Rousseau and / or Basham show enough inside, we may say goodbye to both Butler and Phillips (and maybe keep Addison). If they dont show enough inside, we may say goodbye to Addison and one of Butler or Phillips.

 

2. Good point. I was puzzled by the Doyle pick for a long time as well. Only way I can rationalize is that  - Bills philosophy in rounds 3 and above appears to be "throw enough dirt and some will stick". They needed a big tackle to clear space for the run game and chose two of the bigger guys out there. Tells you that while being intrigued by Brown, they were not fully sold on him ex-ante. So Doyle was insurance. Not a totally convincing rationale, but that is all I got. Early returns appear to suggest Brown sticks (he is a higher draft pick after all) and Doyle does not. 

[IgotBILLStopay]

14 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

Serious question: From the above projection, what position do you think we could have one less of to have the luxury of a third QB?

Oh Dline for sure. We will not go with 10 there.

 

Especially if our QBs are not vaccinated, no way do we go in with just 2.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

It seems inevitable to me that Addison gets pushed down the depth chart by players like Epenesa, Obada, and eventually the two rooks. At that point do you hold onto a 34-year old depth player in decline, or the younger guy, who is a ST stand-out? If you place value on ST (Beane/McD certainly do), then yes, Daryl Johnson has more value than Mario Addison.

 

If you're talking about what McDermott places value on, you can't mention value on ST without mentioning value on veteran leadership in each room, to the point of keeping players who barely see the field.

 

To argue that Bam Johnson is more valuable than Addison because he has higher value on ST and McBeane value ST play, you have to acknowledge other aspects that McBeane have shown they value. 

 

We hope Addison will be pushed down the depth chart, but unless he comes into camp unfit, that time is "not yet"

[Rocky Landing]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

If you're talking about what McDermott places value on, you can't mention value on ST without mentioning value on veteran leadership in each room, to the point of keeping players who barely see the field.

That's true. But, I would certainly think Hughes fits that role better than Addison.

[Bangarang]

2 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

It seems inevitable to me that Addison gets pushed down the depth chart by players like Epenesa, Obada, and eventually the two rooks. At that point do you hold onto a 34-year old depth player in decline, or the younger guy, who is a ST stand-out? If you place value on ST (Beane/McD certainly do), then yes, Daryl Johnson has more value than Mario Addison.

Daryl Johnson’s best contribution may only be as a ST player. He offers us nothing as a pass rusher and likely never will. So no, I still don’t see how his value is higher considering you yourself downplay the importance of guys whose only role is to play special teams. 
 

A declining Addison is still better than Johnson. And a veteran like him holds even more value on this team when it comes to mentoring the young guys who actually have talent as pass rushers. 
 

If the younger guys prove they can handle the job and Addison starts to get faded out then I’ll entertain the idea of letting him go if it makes sense. Otherwise, it’s foolish to think a guy like Daryl Johnson deserves more playing time just for the sake of it. That’s not how McD manages the roster.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

46 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Oh Dline for sure. We will not go with 10 there.

 

Especially if our QBs are not vaccinated, no way do we go in with just 2.

 

I think you can safely bet that Trubisky is vaccinated.  He's playing for his next contract, which means his best opportunity to showcase his abilities and win his next opportunity will come if Allen is unable to play due to injury, illness, or quarantine under NFL rules.

 

No Way does Mitch want the headlines to read "Josh Allen on Covid-19 list; Mitch Trubisky quarantined as close contact.  Jake Fromm (or Davis Webb) to start against the KC Chiefs."  If not before, as soon as the NFL announced that vaccinated players don't need to quarantine as close contacts,  Mitch rolled up his sleeve.

[Rocky Landing]

3 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

Daryl Johnson’s best contribution may only be as a ST player. He offers us nothing as a pass rusher and likely never will. So no, I still don’t see how his value is higher considering you yourself downplay the importance of guys whose only role is to play special teams. 
 

A declining Addison is still better than Johnson. And a veteran like him holds even more value on this team when it comes to mentoring the young guys who actually have talent as pass rushers. 
 

If the younger guys prove they can handle the job and Addison starts to get faded out then I’ll entertain the idea of letting him go if it makes sense. Otherwise, it’s foolish to think a guy like Daryl Johnson deserves more playing time just for the sake of it. That’s not how McD manages the roster.

Well, we disagree.

But, the bolded sentence in your post is not an argument anyone has made. McD has several depth players that he has held onto for the sake of ST. That IS how he manages the roster.

[Bangarang]

4 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

Well, we disagree.

But, the bolded sentence in your post is not an argument anyone has made. McD has several depth players that he has held onto for the sake of ST. That IS how he manages the roster.

You yourself are making that argument when you say you want to cut Addison and give a bigger role to Daryl Johnson. What has he shown to make anyone believe he’s earned it or is even capable of being an effective pass rusher in the NFL? Seriously
 

I know exactly how McD manages the roster which is why your argument makes no sense. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

40 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

That's true. But, I would certainly think Hughes fits that role better than Addison.

 

Hughes is, IMO, a better player than Addison though in reining in his "crazy Gary" he may have lost a bit of his edge, too.

But I don't think that means McDermott keeps just one.

 

There's a lot to see in training camp.  The message is clear on the DL: come into camp in the best shape of your life, and we're bringing in 3 guys for every position who are gonna try to do your job better than you do.  Injuries may happen; we hope they won't.  Illness may happen; we hope it won't.

 

But other things being equal, what have McDermott and Frazier done to give the impression they will only keep one veteran DE or DT?  Look at last year where they kept Murphy on the roster all season, even at the cost of $7M or so they could have realized if they cut him.  And there are not even cap savings to be had by cutting Butler or Addison.

 

Myself, I think that McDermott needs to "get over" keeping so many veteran players at different positions primarily for their special teams play.  We are gonna cut guys who have potential at their primary position and could develop, like Antonio Williams or C Wade, in favor of veterans like Taiwan Jones.  Which is OK for 1 or maybe 2 players, but then we're gonna repeat that theme over and over and over again throughout the roster - LB, DE, S, maybe TE etc.   

 

At some point, the gift of a talented ST coach is to be given 1-2 key players and otherwise told to coach the depth and rookies into a servicable ST squad

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

There are a couple things that would concern me if this is the final depth chart:

 

We would have no veteran backups at OT:

Bobby Hart isn't a world-beater, but he is a known quantity with experience who was actually decent last season on a bad overall O-line for the Bengals. Doyle and Brown are developmental prospects and throwing them out there as an injury sub could get Josh killed.

 

Depth at CB:

4 outside corners, one is a late-round rookie, another is a 2nd year guy who had barely any playing time last year. We really need to add a veteran cb before training camp.

 

These are two of the most important positions in the NFL and we're one injury away from potential disaster.

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

21 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I thought about bumping the "Way Too Early" projection thread but it's almost 2 months old at this point.

I thought  @Matt Parrino did a reasonable job, though there is plenty of room to debate.

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2021/06/bills-53-man-roster-projection-after-minicamp-fierce-position-battles-expected-in-trenches.html

 

I'm going to condense his predictions in one place, then loop back to discuss

 

QB:QUARTERBACK (2): Josh Allen, Mitchell Trubisky 

RUNNING BACK (4): Devin Singletary, Zack Moss, Matt Breida, Taiwan Jones

WIDE RECEIVER (6): Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Isaiah Hodgins

TIGHT END (3): Dawson Knox, Jacob Hollister, Tommy Sweeney

OFFENSIVE LINE (9): Dion Dawkins, Daryl Williams, Jon Feliciano, Mitch Morse, Cody Ford, Ike Boettger, Spencer Brown, Tommy Doyle, Ryan Bates

DEFENSIVE LINE (10): Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, A.J. Epenesa, Boogie Basham, Greg Rousseau, Star Lotulelei, Ed Oliver, Vernon Butler, Efe Obada, Harrison Phillips
LINEBACKER (6): Tremaine Edmunds, Matt Milano, A.J. Klein, Tyrell Adams, Tyler Matakevich, Tyrel Dodson

DEFENSIVE BACKS (10): Tre’Davious White, Levi Wallace, Dane Jackson, Taron Johnson, Rachad Wildgoose, Siran Neal, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Jaquan Johnson, Damar Hamlin
SPECIALISTS (3): Tyler Bass, Matt Haack, Reid Ferguson

 

Discuss!

 

I would love to see someone bold the players that are essentially Special Teams starters.  Beyond the kickers and kick returners those guys get very little attention or credit...and I have to admit I'm not sure who they are myself.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I would love to see someone bold the players that are essentially Special Teams starters.  Beyond the kickers and kick returners those guys get very little attention or credit...and I have to admit I'm not sure who they are myself.

 

I'll give it a try and maybe someone will chime in to correct me and add more:

 

RUNNING BACK (4): Devin Singletary, Zack Moss, Matt Breida, Taiwan Jones [not listed: Christian Wade, whose best shot at the roster is probably KR/PR]

WIDE RECEIVER (6): Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie [potential KR/PR], Isaiah Hodgins [not listed: Brandon Powell, KR/PR for the Falcons last year; Marquez Stevenson fast rookie and potential KR/PR]

TIGHT END (3): Dawson Knox, Jacob Hollister, Tommy Sweeney [not listed: Reggie Gilliam, played 44-75% of ST snaps 2nd half of last season]

OFFENSIVE LINE (9): Dion Dawkins, Daryl Williams, Jon Feliciano, Mitch Morse, Cody Ford, Ike Boettger, Spencer Brown, Tommy Doyle, Ryan Bates

DEFENSIVE LINE (10): Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, A.J. Epenesa, Boogie Basham, Greg Rousseau, Star Lotulelei, Ed Oliver, Vernon Butler, Efe Obada, Harrison Phillips

[Not listed: Darryl "Bam" Johnson, played 44-78% of the ST snaps last year unless injured]
LINEBACKER (6): Tremaine Edmunds, Matt Milano, A.J. Klein, Tyrell Adams, Tyler Matakevich, Tyrel Dodson [Not listed: Andre Smith, 53-75% of ST snaps last year]

DEFENSIVE BACKS (10): Tre’Davious White, Levi Wallace, Dane Jackson, Taron Johnson, Rachad Wildgoose, Siran Neal, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Jaquan Johnson, Damar Hamlin
SPECIALISTS (3): Tyler Bass, Matt Haack, Reid Ferguson

 

Last year on the Bills: Andre Roberts, Taiwan Jones, Reggie Gilliam, Darryl Johnson, Tyler Matakevich, Andre Smith and Siran Neal made the active game day roster primarily IMHO for their Special Teams chops.  So 7 guys primarily there for ST, though Gilliam, Matakevich, and Smith played well on offense or defense when they got the opportunity.  Johnson saw his defensive snaps rise to 40% towards the end of the season, but then fall back to 20% or inactive (vs the Ravens) during the playoffs.  The draft and FA acquisitions seem to say the Bills are looking to upgrade there.

[Rocky Landing]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

You yourself are making that argument when you say you want to cut Addison and give a bigger role to Daryl Johnson. What has he shown to make anyone believe he’s earned it or is even capable of being an effective pass rusher in the NFL? Seriously
 

I know exactly how McD manages the roster which is why your argument makes no sense. 

Come on, now.

Daryl Johnson has shown he is a good ST player. I'm making the argument that they keep Johnson because of his value on special teams. I did not say they keep him because of his pass rushing, and I did not say that he was a better pass rusher than Addison. I'm making the argument that Addison moves down to a depth player. I think he loses his starting position this season, and that we won't have room for him on the roster. 

 

It's just an opinion. If you can't make sense out of my opinion, I don't know what to tell you.