53 Man Roster: Projection After OTA/Minicamp

[below]

1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

I'm beginning to wonder if one or both of Ike and Ford are locks.  

 

We did trade Teller one year after drafting him.  

Yup, as an experienced starter Ike may have some trade value.

[Rocky Landing]

11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I thought about bumping the "Way Too Early" projection thread but it's almost 2 months old at this point.

I thought  @Matt Parrino did a reasonable job, though there is plenty of room to debate.

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2021/06/bills-53-man-roster-projection-after-minicamp-fierce-position-battles-expected-in-trenches.html

 

I'm going to condense his predictions in one place, then loop back to discuss

 

QB:QUARTERBACK (2): Josh Allen, Mitchell Trubisky 

RUNNING BACK (4): Devin Singletary, Zack Moss, Matt Breida, Taiwan Jones

WIDE RECEIVER (6): Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Isaiah Hodgins

TIGHT END (3): Dawson Knox, Jacob Hollister, Tommy Sweeney

OFFENSIVE LINE (9): Dion Dawkins, Daryl Williams, Jon Feliciano, Mitch Morse, Cody Ford, Ike Boettger, Spencer Brown, Tommy Doyle, Ryan Bates

DEFENSIVE LINE (10): Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, A.J. Epenesa, Boogie Basham, Greg Rousseau, Star Lotulelei, Ed Oliver, Vernon Butler, Efe Obada, Harrison Phillips
LINEBACKER (6): Tremaine Edmunds, Matt Milano, A.J. Klein, Tyrell Adams, Tyler Matakevich, Tyrel Dodson

DEFENSIVE BACKS (10): Tre’Davious White, Levi Wallace, Dane Jackson, Taron Johnson, Rachad Wildgoose, Siran Neal, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Jaquan Johnson, Damar Hamlin
SPECIALISTS (3): Tyler Bass, Matt Haack, Reid Ferguson

 

Discuss!

 

I agree with most of this... probably because most of it is obvious.

 

Some things I don't necessarily agree with:

DL:

I don't really know the cap implications (I don't generally have the energy to really follow that side of the sport-- I just listen to what others say...), but I don't think we hold onto Mario Addison. I do think we hold onto Daryl Johnson. He's young, and a decent depth player. And, I don't even know the stats, but I believe he played really well on ST last season. And, as we all know, Beane takes ST very seriously.

 

Also, Justin Zimmer. Maybe the Bills keep 11 DL? It could happen.

 

WR:

I know people love to love Hodgins, but I think there's a lot of competition at that spot, and I wonder if Hodgins offers what they are likely looking for? With the departure of John Brown, the Bills got slower at WR, and Hodgins doesn't offer high-end speed. Also, with his injury history, and limited practices, he is probably not high up on the list of special teamers, which should be assumed to be requisite for that position. Marquez Stevenson, picked in an earlier round than Hodgins, has the acceleration that could put him the conversation for P/KR, and several of the other current WRs already may have a leg up on Hodgins for a ST role. 

 

I also have been thinking about Tanner Gentry. Sure, he should be considered a dark horse candidate for the 53. But, if McK gets the P/KR role, that opens up the depth receiver competition a little bit. And one thing is clear: Josh Allen loves Gentry. Watch Josh's highlight reel from Wyoming. Gentry was all over it. Allen knows right where Gentry is, and when he's going to make his cut. Allen gushed about him during OTAs. "Strongest hands of anybody I know." Could Beane/McDermott throw Allen a bone, here? #6WR isn't such a huge bone, really.

 

LB:

If the Bills remain primarily  a 4-2-5 base defense, I don't know that they keep six LBs. And if they do, I don't feel like they'll keep Dodson. I feel like there was some buzz around Giles-Harris. I know that Dodson made some nice plays in his first game with a significant play count (vs. Miami, I think?) but, I feel like after that he settled down into being fairly pedestrian.

 

RB:

Sigh... I know we've paid for Jones, and all, and he's a ST stud... but, damn. Why even bother calling him a running back? He's terrible in that capacity. Is it possible that Wade has learned enough to make an impact? Maybe even compete for P/KR? We know almost nothing about Wade beyond his preseason games two years ago. But, man, that dude had some acceleration back then.

 

TE:

Four of them. 

 

DB:

One of the UDFAs will shine in TC, and surprise everyone. In fact, I think Tariq Thomson generated more buzz during OTAs than Damar Hamlin did. I know Hamlin got a lot of buzz right after the draft as being a late round pick that could make the 53, but that had more to do with the departure of Dean Marlowe. Of course, OTAs don't mean too much, but I think it's a pretty level playing field for these lower depth players.

 

 

Edited June 25, 2021 by Rocky Landing

[below]

3 hours ago, gjv001 said:

Zimmer will make the roster.

He was a nice story but they're clearly trying to upgrade from him.

 

Star's return on its own knocks Zimmer out of the DT rotation.

 

Obada, Basham, and Rousseau all have the potential to play DT on passing downs.

 

And theyve signed several DTs on top of that.

[buffaloaggie]

1 hour ago, Victory Formation said:

I would almost rather have Zimmer and Harry over Vernon Butler, but I have no idea what the cap situation is like with Butler’s contract.

Cutting Butler would mean a $6mil cap hit, zero savings. Cutting Zimmer and Harry saves the Bills $1.87 mil on their cap. Unless they make an undeniable case for keeping them, the cap says Zimmer and Harry are gone.  

[IgotBILLStopay]

1. At least two of Butler, Phillips and Addison are not making it.

 

2. Will go with 3 QBs (so add Fromm)

 

3. Based on reports from OTAs, not impressed by Doyle so far - so my dark horse cut candidate despite being a 5th rounder

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 minutes ago, below said:

Star's return on its own knocks Zimmer out of the DT rotation.

 

Really?  How many snaps did Zimmer see at 1TDT last season? 

 

 

6 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

1. At least two of Butler, Phillips and Addison are not making it.

 

Discuss/justify.  Given McD's love of DL rotation, if Butler and Phillips don't make it, AFAIK that would leave Star Lotulelei as the only 1TDT on the team.

I don't see that happening.  Who makes it instead?

 

 

6 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

2. Will go with 3 QBs (so add Fromm)

 

Again - why?  Unless he lights the field on fire during preseason, I don't think the market will be hot for a former 5th round draft pick who didn't see the field last year and has a bit of baggage.  He could be cut and placed on the PS.

 

6 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

3. Based on reports from OTAs, not impressed by Doyle so far - so my dark horse cut candidate despite being a 5th rounder

 

The Doyle thing is a puzzle to me - drafting him, plans for him, all of that stuff.

[Mark Vader]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I thought about bumping the "Way Too Early" projection thread but it's almost 2 months old at this point.

I thought  @Matt Parrino did a reasonable job, though there is plenty of room to debate.

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2021/06/bills-53-man-roster-projection-after-minicamp-fierce-position-battles-expected-in-trenches.html

 

I'm going to condense his predictions in one place, then loop back to discuss

 

QB:QUARTERBACK (2): Josh Allen, Mitchell Trubisky  No brainer here. The question is will both Fromm & Webb be on the practice squad, if Webb has anymore eligibility.

 

RUNNING BACK (4): Devin Singletary, Zack Moss, Matt Breida, Taiwan Jones  I think Antonio Williams makes it over Taiwan Jones. Yes, Jones is a Special Teams standout, but I think someone else will  step up and fill that role. 

 

WIDE RECEIVER (6): Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Isaiah Hodgins  Tough to argue against this. I wouldn't be shocked if they kept 7 WR's on the roster. Marquez Stevenson will get a chance to prove himself.

 

TIGHT END (3): Dawson Knox, Jacob Hollister, Tommy Sweeney  Completely agree with this.

 

OFFENSIVE LINE (9): Dion Dawkins, Daryl Williams, Jon Feliciano, Mitch Morse, Cody Ford, Ike Boettger, Spencer Brown, Tommy Doyle, Ryan Bates  I think Doyle is headed for the practice squad. Forrest Lamp or one of the other veterans will make it here.

 

DEFENSIVE LINE (10): Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, A.J. Epenesa, Boogie Basham, Greg Rousseau, Star Lotulelei, Ed Oliver, Vernon Butler, Efe Obada, Harrison Phillips  Mario Addison out; Daryl Johnson in.

LINEBACKER (6): Tremaine Edmunds, Matt Milano, A.J. Klein, Tyrell Adams, Tyler Matakevich, Tyrel Dodson  I could see us going with just 5 LB's. Adams and Dodson fight for the final spot.

 

DEFENSIVE BACKS (10): Tre’Davious White, Levi Wallace, Dane Jackson, Taron Johnson, Rachad Wildgoose, Siran Neal, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Jaquan Johnson, Damar Hamlin  Agree with all of this. I'd like to see if Jaquon Johnson can make a bigger contribution instead of on Special Teams.

SPECIALISTS (3): Tyler Bass, Matt Haack, Reid Ferguson  No brainer.

 

Discuss!

 

 

[Rocky Landing]

25 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

1. At least two of Butler, Phillips and Addison are not making it.

 

2. Will go with 3 QBs (so add Fromm)

 

3. Based on reports from OTAs, not impressed by Doyle so far - so my dark horse cut candidate despite being a 5th rounder

Serious question: From the above projection, what position do you think we could have one less of to have the luxury of a third QB?

[John from Riverside]

I still am suspecting we are going to trade a OG.....possibly Ford.  and keep Lamp.   Beane does stuff like that.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Think there will be some trades.   Both lines has some talent being let go.  Wouldn't shock me if either Addison or Hughes isn't here come September.  Do think Zimmer might make it over Harry and do think Obada makes it over Johnson as both play ST and Obada seems to be better pass rusher.

 

Also think there's be two or three players stashed on IR either due to legit injury or not so legit injury so that will help the numbers some.

Edited June 25, 2021 by Ed_Formerly_of_Roch

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Just now, ScottLaw said:

Not sure why they’d trade/cut Hughes and not Addison. Hughes is the better player and it’s not close. 

 

Talent wise agree, but think Hughes contract would be easier to unload as Addison's.  May be they really want to keep more of the younger guys and only way to do it is get rid of one of these two.

[Rocky Landing]

1 minute ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Talent wise agree, but think Hughes contract would be easier to unload as Addison's.  May be they really want to keep more of the younger guys and only way to do it is get rid of one of these two.

They're going to get rid of the better player because their contract would be "easier to unload?" And... Hughes????

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

DL:

I don't really know the cap implications (I don't generally have the energy to really follow that side of the sport-- I just listen to what others say...), but I don't think we hold onto Mario Addison.

 

Addison's renegotiated contract is a bit tough to understand, but the bottom line seems to be it costs almost as much in dead cap to keep him as to cut him, because $2M of his $4M salary is now fully guaranteed and he has $2M of his signing bonus split into a void year next season....so the $2M salary saved by cutting him is offset by accelerating the signing bonus into this season.

 

Plus, Frazier seems to like to play veterans and ease rookies in, maybe too slowly.  So unless one of the rookies just comes in, masters the playbook, and plays like his ass is on fire and sacks/TFL will put it out, I think Addison stays.  And even then, they'll want to hedge their bets. 

 

It's a tough conundrum the Bills have set up for themselves. 

 

But if I were a vet, I wouldn't come to camp assuming I can coast.  Not saving money wouldn't stop Beane from sending the Turk, I think.

 

5 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

I do think we hold onto Daryl Johnson. He's young, and a decent depth player. And, I don't even know the stats, but I believe he played really well on ST last season. And, as we all know, Beane takes ST very seriously.

 

A couple points:

If the Bills want to hang on to all their rookies and some younger talent, at some point they're going to have to pick and choose who they keep for special teams.

We have Taiwan Jones, Siran Neal, Bam (Daryl) Johnson, Andre Smith, and Tyler Matakevich all primarily on the team for their ST abilities.

 

I really liked how Matakevich played in the 3 games where he got some defensive snaps.  Andre Smith, not so much in the 1st NWE game but thought he did well against Miami (counterpoint that they were kinda heading for the bus in the 2nd half).

 

Beane went out of his way to praise Daryl Johnson in his presser.

 

But Maybe, just Maybe, they're gonna need to lighten up on the ST load.

 

5 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

Also, Justin Zimmer. Maybe the Bills keep 11 DL? It could happen.

 

What do the Bills typically keep?  10?

 

DEFENSIVE LINE (10):

DE: Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, A.J. Epenesa, Boogie Basham, Greg Rousseau, Efe Obada,

DT: Star Lotulelei, Ed Oliver, Vernon Butler, Harrison Phillips

Matt P's projected cuts: Justin Zimmer, Darryl Johnson, Mike Love, Bryan Cox Jr., Brandin Bryant, Treyvon Hester, Eli Ankou

 

This is one of the biggest "I don't know what's gonna happen" positions to me.

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Also think there's be two or three players stashed on IR either due to legit injury or not so legit injury so that will help the numbers some.

 

This is a point.  I suspect a couple promising young OL and DL may develop an injury.

[Richard Noggin]

Please, McBeane, just say NO to Taiwan Jones. And NO to Jake Fromm. And NO to several other fringe guys who could be replaced by promising young talent. 

 

I'd like to see Mario Addison OFF the roster, for example. Daryl Johnson has much more value, or maybe one of the lesser known DTs. Or some other position entirely. Someone with upside. It's time to turn it over to drafted players (or otherwise acquired younger talent) at several positions. 

 

Let's see Antonio Williams over Taiwan Jones. Whatever. Get crazy. Cut the cords with "safer" players at positions where there is younger talent to develop. Let's not have another Wyatt Teller situation, if we can avoid it.

 

That undrafted TE looks intriguing. The drafted WR has traits our WR room is otherwise lacking. Et cetera.

[Rocky Landing]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Addison's renegotiated contract is a bit tough to understand, but the bottom line seems to be it costs almost as much in dead cap to keep him as to cut him, because $2M of his $4M salary is now fully guaranteed and he has $2M of his signing bonus split into a void year next season....so the $2M salary saved by cutting him is offset by accelerating the signing bonus into this season.

 

Plus, Frazier seems to like to play veterans and ease rookies in, maybe too slowly.  So unless one of the rookies just comes in, masters the playbook, and plays like his ass is on fire and sacks/TFL will put it out, I think Addison stays.  And even then, they'll want to hedge their bets. 

 

It's a tough conundrum the Bills have set up for themselves. 

 

But if I were a vet, I wouldn't come to camp assuming I can coast.  Not saving money wouldn't stop Beane from sending the Turk, I think.

 

 

A couple points:

If the Bills want to hang on to all their rookies and some younger talent, at some point they're going to have to pick and choose who they keep for special teams.

We have Taiwan Jones, Siran Neal, Bam (Daryl) Johnson, Andre Smith, and Tyler Matakevich all primarily on the team for their ST abilities.

 

I really liked how Matakevich played in the 3 games where he got some defensive snaps.  Andre Smith, not so much in the 1st NWE game but thought he did well against Miami (counterpoint that they were kinda heading for the bus in the 2nd half).

 

Beane went out of his way to praise Daryl Johnson in his presser.

 

But Maybe, just Maybe, they're gonna need to lighten up on the ST load.

 

 

 

On Addison vs. Johnson- Yeah, Frazier does trust the vets. And Hughes is such an integral part of this defense-- and a better player than Addison-- I'm sure you would agree that he stays. The DL needs his leadership. But, at some point it becomes a question of numbers. Do they keep more than six DEs? Seems unlikely. So, Hughes, AJE, Rousseau, Basham, seem pretty safe, no?

 

After that (assuming they keep six), it becomes a choice between Obada, Addison, and Johnson-- pick two. Addison has been with the team for one season. Johnson has been with the team for two. And as far as DJ's ST prowess (and his defensive ability) it may just be that he has a certain, unique celebratory strut that he does every time he makes a play that really stands out to me, and has led me to believe that he makes a lot of plays (whereas Mario is more low-key). But, I just don't see Frazier, or McD, or Beane thinking that 34 year-old Addison offers more than DJ, or Obada, $2M be damned. 

 

If they do decide to "lighten up on the ST load" (I would bet they don't), I would think it would be one of the ST players that is less versatile. You have to admit-- they love versatility in a player-- especially their depth players. Of the players you mentioned, clearly Neal would be the most versatile, IMO. Honestly, I think he's a starting caliber NCB, or safety. Then comes Johnson, then Matakevich, and then I would say Smith. Taiwan Jones, in my opinion, is utterly useless as anything but a ST player. 

[machine gun kelly]

9 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

I would almost rather have Zimmer and Harry over Vernon Butler, but I have no idea what the cap situation is like with Butler’s contract.

We save $1.8 mil. by cutting, but have a dead cap of $3.5 mil. if I read it correctly.  As far as Hap’s initial 53, it makes sense to me and can always take the young guys who were not on the 53 and place in the PS.  There are 12 spots, and two can be veterans as exceptions to the normal restrictions.  I don’t see the NFL increasing the 53, but 5ey should able to dress more than 46 as I wasn’t sure if they maintained the pandemic changes.  I also think they should’ve with the extra game kept the pandemic 16 slots vs. 12.  Next year they go to 14, and even that would’ve been a compromise.

[Saxum]

Believe three players from last year will be traded - Beasley, Ford and Addison most likely - because Bills signed a lot of players behind them and they need to get cheaper with upcoming increases of contracts especially Allen. 

 

Depending on PS squad rules this year they may try to stash some on it but Dane Jackson will not be one of them. 

I do hope they keep expanded rules for there is no guarantee that a second wave may appear in fall, maybe that strain in England and India.

 

Fromm is out with Trubisky now on roster and Bills will look for young backup next year.

[Doc Brown]

39 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

Believe three players from last year will be traded - Beasley, Ford and Addison most likely - because Bills signed a lot of players behind them and they need to get cheaper with upcoming increases of contracts especially Allen. 

 

Depending on PS squad rules this year they may try to stash some on it but Dane Jackson will not be one of them. 

I do hope they keep expanded rules for there is no guarantee that a second wave may appear in fall, maybe that strain in England and India.

 

Fromm is out with Trubisky now on roster and Bills will look for young backup next year.

I don't know what's going on behind the scenes right now with the Beasley situation but I think the Bills would've traded or cut him by now if they get the sense he's going to opt out.  They still might within the next few days.  If not, there's no way he's not on the active 53 man roster as he's too important as that safety valve in the slot.  Eighty two catches for 967 yards in 15 games is not easily duplicated and losing him would be significant.

 

Ford would have to have a really bad camp for them to cut/trade him as he won't save you much money.  He's only had a year and a half of playing experience at both tackle and guard.  Having him fully healthy and locking him into one position (guard) will be key.  He's by far our most athletically gifted guard as we moved up in the 2nd for a reason

 

Frazier values veterans so I think Addison stays although he'd make the most sense of the three you mentioned with three younger DE's vying for playing time.

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

With the make up of our current team and our offense being so reliant on WRs, I'd really like to see us find a way to keep 7 WRs (the four locks plus McKenzie, Hodgins, and Stevenson) and only 3 TEs.

 

We need McKenzie and Stevenson's speed in my opinion and I'm interested by the different skill set Hodgins brings to the table. Plus Spencer Brown and/or Tommy Doyle can possibly get some snaps at TE in certain packages with their athleticism. 

[Simon Says]

15 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 If it does end up bigger I would add Ryan Bates and Darryl Johnson, both young and not much $.   Morse as our primary Center concerns me with his age/injury history and concussions, one thing Bates has O Line versatility.  I always liked the upside to Daryl Johnson, was very "raw" coming it of North Carolina A&T  but has great length.  

 

We are going to loose a good or potentially good D Lineman this year.

Bates IS on this roster