Efe Obada “true sack score” ranked 9th in league

[Doc]

12 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

If we can get off the damn field on D. A series of 8 minute drives keeps JA17 on the bench for too long. Our 3rd down D against good offenses was not good last year. 3rd and 17, 3rd and 15, we'd give it up.

 

They likely won't be running on 3rd and 15+...

[Putin]

22 hours ago, RochesterLifer said:

I never lost faith in our D last year, understanding that many of our most important players (Tre, Milano and Edmunds) were out or playing injured. That being said, the thought of this D once again becoming destructive is very exciting.

If this  defense can  get back to being a top 5 unit and keep offenses under 20 points per game , this could be the year  !!!! 
GO BILLS BABY 

[BADOLBILZ]

25 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Incognito was approached about a pay cut because he was back to boozing and becoming mentally unstable.  Taking a year off to reassess was in his best interest, although he screwed the team.

 

As for Star, there's no evidence that the pay cut made him take the year off.  There was a pandemic that affected obese people disproportionately and many player opted-out, not just those who took pay cuts.

 

And with Josh's ascension to elite status and the Bills playing well, it's a new team now.  Players will view it differently than before.

 

 

How was cutting Incognito's pay going to help resolve his addiction problem?

 

You don't cut an addiction-addled employee's pay to get them to seek help...........you make them go into counseling or you outright release them..........that whole line of reasoning for cutting Incognito's pay never made any sense whatsoever.    

 

And Star had no financial incentive to take any risk with covid..........Beane guaranteed his salary.........so yes there is obviously literal evidence by definition.    And since:

1) Very few players actually opted out

2) Similar players his age struggle to get work at all

3) His paycut indicated that the team was preparing to move on without him after 2020

 

Well let's just say that the preponderance of evidence would suggest that yes, he likely did opt out because his salary was guaranteed and he didn't have much to gain for taking the risk that other players did.  

 

 Star re-defined the term "stay-at-home DT" in 2020.

[ColoradoBills]

20 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I agree on the numbers point. Most of my life, the Bills carried a max of 4 Defensive Ends. In the McBeane years, they've seemed to carry 5. Never once have I seen 6 staying on the active roster.

 

But when it comes to Addison being released, I see another unprecedented issue. Brandon Beane has never told a veteran "we need you to take a pay cut if you want to stay" and then cut the guy anyways. Even with guys we didn't even use like Tyler Kroft. I think it's a bad look to the locker room and their "process" team building.

 

Beyond that, he doubled down in a press conference following the drafting of Rousseau and Basham stating Addison isn't going anywhere. That he's counting on his mentoring the Rookies and even discussed how he plans on using Addison in the rotation re: adjusted snap counts to maximize his impact this season.

 

So I don't think Addison is going anywhere. I see us cutting Obada or carrying 6 guys with us either taking from another position to carry 10 D-Lineman or one of those DE's will be playing both inside and outside ala Quinton Jefferson.

 

You could be totally correct about the Addison pay cut precluding a trade/cut but my comment was IF Obada way overperforms.

If that happens I'm not positive what might happen.  I guess we'll just have to wait and see.  

[YoloinOhio]

14 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Can someone familiar with this gentleman and his "True Sack Rate" and HQ Sack statistics kindly explain how they are determined and what they mean relative to the sack numbers we're all familiar with?

 

Speak slowly and use small words.

 

 

 

That was my thought initially, but then I thought, well DLmen are on the field for different # of snaps.  And they face a different # of snaps where a sack is possible (because sack = QB so if the ball handed off, can't sack)

 

So it seems possible it could be legit.

I don’t subscribe so can’t say what the statistics are derived from but it appears he’s putting context around pass rush numbers. Brandon Thorn is a highly respected analyst of OL play in particular so him going into DL play is new to me. I suspect one of the podcasters or even OBL will have him on soon to discuss further. 

[Doc]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

How was cutting Incognito's pay going to help resolve his addiction problem?

 

You don't cut an addiction-addled employee's pay to get them to seek help...........you make them go into counseling or you outright release them..........that whole line of reasoning for cutting Incognito's pay never made any sense whatsoever.    

 

And Star had no financial incentive to take any risk with covid..........Beane guaranteed his salary.........so yes there is obviously literal evidence by definition.    And since:

1) Very few players actually opted out

2) Similar players his age struggle to get work at all

3) His paycut indicated that the team was preparing to move on without him after 2020

 

Well let's just say that the preponderance of evidence would suggest that yes, he likely did opt out because his salary was guaranteed and he didn't have much to gain for taking the risk that other players did.  

 

 Star re-defined the term "stay-at-home DT" in 2020.

 

No, you cut the pay of a player you know has issues so that if/when he goes off-the-rails during the season, it's less money they owe him (since a vested veteran's salary becomes guaranteed after the 1st game of the season).  Obviously they knew he was a ticking time bomb because off-the-rails he went, a lot sooner than they knew it was going to happen and ended-up saving all of his salary.  It would have been nice to have Incognito remain sober and on the team but he didn't and that's on him.

 

As for what help the Bills may or may not have offered, I can't say.  But to his credit, Incognito took ownership of his behavior and didn't blast the Bills for what they did or didn't do, suggesting they did what they could. 

 

Star didn't get that guaranteed ($4.5M) salary in 2020.  He gets it this year.  I think he got just $900K.

 

And yes, they might have wanted 2020 to be his last season.  Now it's this year.  As I said, prior to last season the Bills had to overpay to get players.  That will change now.

[Don Otreply]

14 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Can someone familiar with this gentleman and his "True Sack Rate" and HQ Sack statistics kindly explain how they are determined and what they mean relative to the sack numbers we're all familiar with?

 

Speak slowly and use small words.

 

 

 

That was my thought initially, but then I thought, well DLmen are on the field for different # of snaps.  And they face a different # of snaps where a sack is possible (because sack = QB so if the ball handed off, can't sack)

 

So it seems possible it could be legit.

Well, then maybe a stat that directly compares the number of snaps played against the number of sacks, or some such a thing…, lots of variables to contend with I guess… when the minutiae is broken down into even more minutiae it gets a little silly, but that’s just me I guess

9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Respectfully disagree.

 

I know nothing about what the true sack score is or whether it's worth looking at, but your post implies that if a guy doesn't get a sack he's failed, and that's not true at all.

 

Hughes is a great example. He's consistently pressuring, making QBs move, but we haven't had anyone else who can consistently take advantage of that QB being forced off his spot. Pressures are huge, moving a guy is huge, and doing so means you've added value on that play, though obviously you'd have added more with a sack.

 

If we'd had a guy on the other side who could have also been creating havoc, he might well have forced the guy to take a step or two towards Hughes that might have gotten Jerry a sack or four more. It's not always true, but a lot of the time, sacks are a team accomplishment even if only one guy actually brings him down.

I see your point, but that’s not what I was getting at, 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

23 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Well, then maybe a stat that directly compares the number of snaps played against the number of sacks, or some such a thing…, lots of variables to contend with I guess… when the minutiae is broken down into even more minutiae it gets a little silly, but that’s just me I guess

 

I roll my eyes at PFF "interceptable balls", but, yards per carry or yards per catch seem sensible to me in attempting to sort out how effective a player is in the chances he gets.

 

So if it's something like sacks per passing snap the DL is on the field for, that could add value IMO.

 

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

Extremely poor reference. Though I think I understand your obsession with wackos trying to steal dead men’s heads..

 

I merely listed Beane's past history with pay cuts.

 

1 player manipulated the team into releasing him post pay cut.

 

1 player opted out of the season post pay cut.

 

0-2

 

Worth noting that neither Addison,  Butler or Lotulelei were at ANY of the non-mandatory offseason team activities.........despite all seeming to be at career crossroads and in a tough FA market,  very lucky to be getting paid what they are scheduled to receive.

 

Pay cuts simply don't make people happy about their situation..........even if their situation is still pretty good..........but since some people work for businesses for free I understand why THOSE people might not understand this concept.

[BringMetheHeadofLeonLett]

20 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I merely listed Beane's past history with pay cuts.

 

1 player manipulated the team into releasing him post pay cut.

 

1 player opted out of the season post pay cut.

 

0-2

 

Worth noting that neither Addison,  Butler or Lotulelei were at ANY of the non-mandatory offseason team activities.........despite all seeming to be at career crossroads and in a tough FA market,  very lucky to be getting paid what they are scheduled to receive.

 

Pay cuts simply don't make people happy about their situation..........even if their situation is still pretty good..........but since some people work for businesses for free I understand why THOSE people might not understand this concept.

You can't cut a player then re-sign him at a lower price-point for cap reasons.   Saving on the cap is really the whole point of salary restructures/reductions

 

unless Ralph owns your team. )

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, BringMetheHeadofLeonLett said:

You can't cut a player then re-sign him at a lower price-point for cap reasons.  

 

You are incorrect.

 

Once you cut a player with enough service time to not be subject to waivers they are a free agent.........meaning free to sign with ANY team.

 

There are limitations on HOW MUCH you can cut a player's pay though........even if they were agreeable to more.........that figure used to be 20%.

 

It's not common and obviously the Bills should have cut both Incognito and Lotulelei rather than go the pay-cut and guaranteed salary route.................but your assertion above is incorrect.

 

 

[Rockinon]

I think it's much simpler than folks think. There is an abundance of DE. Some of them can play DT and the ability to play multiple positions is valuable to the coaches. There will be competition. Someone will be cut because someone else is better. Simple.

[BADOLBILZ]

12 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

I think it's much simpler than folks think. There is an abundance of DE. Some of them can play DT and the ability to play multiple positions is valuable to the coaches. There will be competition. Someone will be cut because someone else is better. Simple.

 

 

Or.......perhaps a young DL will be traded to open up space for Addison or Lotulelei.

 

Like the trading of Wyatt Teller to retain roster space for Spencer Long etc.. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

On 6/19/2021 at 12:32 PM, YoloinOhio said:

I’m very excited to see our Dline this year. I just predict a lot of juice. 

 

Think we may just line up 11 D-lineman and let the offense figure things out!

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

On 6/19/2021 at 11:52 AM, YoloinOhio said:

I think defenses were also affected by lack of crowds. They really feed off of crowd noise and energy and that had to take some getting used to. 

I agree, I feel like more than any team in the NFL our defense gets pumped from the energy that Bills fans generate.

[BringMetheHeadofLeonLett]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

You are incorrect.

 

Once you cut a player with enough service time to not be subject to waivers they are a free agent.........meaning free to sign with ANY team.

 

There are limitations on HOW MUCH you can cut a player's pay though........even if they were agreeable to more.........that figure used to be 20%.

 

It's not common and obviously the Bills should have cut both Incognito and Lotulelei rather than go the pay-cut and guaranteed salary route.................but your assertion above is incorrect.

 

 

If a team straight-out cuts a player they are responsible for the entirety of guaranteed monies and the cap hits which come with it.  To then re-sign the player you are adding new guaranteed monies to THAT total.  

[Rockinon]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Or.......perhaps a young DL will be traded to open up space for Addison or Lotulelei.

 

Like the trading of Wyatt Teller to retain roster space for Spencer Long etc.. 

Good point. I've been wondering if a trade is coming. Training camps often have injuries. Wouldn't at all be surprised. Also, the way Beane stockpiles certain positions like DE and OT, almost seems like he planned it that way.

[billybrew1]

23 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I agree on the needing 4 DT's and ideally, another 1-Tech needing to be added behind Star. Which is why I'm leaning towards Obada not making the final 53. I think he was signed as insurance in the event we weren't able to land a DE we liked in the Draft. Then we drafted 2 in the first 2 rounds. So... yeah.

 

Although I wouldn't be against a move being made, Corner isn't as huge of a need IMO as others feel. I don't think we were bad at the position last season and I see them even performing better than they did last season. And from what I've seen, Jackson is an upgrade from Josh Norman and that's the only change from last year. 

 

As for replacing Cole and needing another TE - I think Ertz should be revisited more than ever now (*ducks oncoming things thrown at him*). I think we're deep enough at WR with Diggs, Sanders, Davis, McKenzie, Stevenson, and Hodgins that we can afford to potentially lose him. Especially if we got another pass catcher like Ertz in the fold at TE.

Not me, I wanted to draft another WR in the second round this year. We had no receivers in the playoffs last year and we simply can not afford to lose any. Cole Beasley really is one of the top slot WRs in the game and we cannot simply absorb him even if we sign Ertz. (We'd be damn good but we couldn't beat KC or Tampa without everybody and everyone healthy and the whole point is to win a Super Bowl.) 

PS - Beasley is soooo good I might have misspoke saying we have to replace him. Right now, it is probably impossible to replace him. Whoever we did end up getting most likely would be a downgrade. I'm not a fan of Beasley's stance at all but I have to admit, if he is in single, he can just about beat anyone for that five to ten yard gain. Plus he is far from just limited to that. He is very good football player and Allen and him got it down.

[BillsFanForever19]

1 hour ago, billybrew1 said:

Not me, I wanted to draft another WR in the second round this year. We had no receivers in the playoffs last year and we simply can not afford to lose any. Cole Beasley really is one of the top slot WRs in the game and we cannot simply absorb him even if we sign Ertz. (We'd be damn good but we couldn't beat KC or Tampa without everybody and everyone healthy and the whole point is to win a Super Bowl.) 

PS - Beasley is soooo good I might have misspoke saying we have to replace him. Right now, it is probably impossible to replace him. Whoever we did end up getting most likely would be a downgrade. I'm not a fan of Beasley's stance at all but I have to admit, if he is in single, he can just about beat anyone for that five to ten yard gain. Plus he is far from just limited to that. He is very good football player and Allen and him got it down.

 

Us not having WR's who were making a difference in the playoffs had way more to do with injuries than a lack of quality at the position. John Brown was snake bitten all season with his hamstring. When we had him, he was 50% at best. Cole was playing on a broken fibula. Diggs was playing on a torn oblique. Gabe Davis had an ankle injury he was playing through. Essentially, our ENTIRE WR core was injured and toughing it out.

 

So it's not that we don't have the guys. It's just that we were extremely unlucky in the timing of their injuries. Most teams around the league don't have a core as solid as Diggs, Cole, Emmanuel, Gabe Davis, and McKenzie. Most teams around the league are lucky to have 2 studs. The way, I see it - we have 4. If that were to become 3 for whatever reason, I'd feel comfortable (as long as it wasn't Diggs we lost). Especially if we added Ertz. I'd rather do that than add another WR like Golden Tate (who imo is probably the best available WR).

Edited June 20, 2021 by BillsFanForever19

[Green Lightning]

10 hours ago, Doc said:

 

They likely won't be running on 3rd and 15+...

Why, we gave up long 3rd downs on runs last year. Point is we need to stop the run better than last year against playoff caliber teams, particularly if they have a solid D. We need a strong push in the middle to help the pass rush.