Logan Thomas - a success or a miss?

[Rochesterfan]

Just now, Doc said:

 

I put Hopkins in the Logan Thomas basket of "was nothing special for years" bin.  He was drafted in 2013 and had no chance to unseat Carpenter, who the Bills had just signed.  And from what I recall, he was terrible.  He was out of football the next 2 seasons and hooked-up with Washington in 2015, a year in which Carpenter was still kicking well.  And a 6th rounder is typically a throwaway pick. 

 

Doc - not sure that is totally correct.  If I remember correctly and maybe I am wrong, but I believe Hopkins beat out Lindell in 2013 and then was injured just before the start of the season - leg injury.  
 

Carpenter had been cut by Miami and was signed to fill in and has a career year. That allowed the Bills to IR Hopkins during the season.  He beat out Hopkins in 2014 though and Hopkins went to NO on the practice squad before getting a chance in Washington.

[Doc]

Just now, Rochesterfan said:

Doc - not sure that is totally correct.  If I remember correctly and maybe I am wrong, but I believe Hopkins beat out Lindell in 2013 and then was injured just before the start of the season - leg injury.  
 

Carpenter had been cut by Miami and was signed to fill in and has a career year. That allowed the Bills to IR Hopkins during the season.  He beat out Hopkins in 2014 though and Hopkins went to NO on the practice squad before getting a chance in Washington.

 

No, you are correct.  Hopkins beat out Lindell and then got injured just before the season started, prompting the Carpenter move.  Carpenter beat him out the next year and Hopkins moved-onto Washington.  He's been decent there but nothing amazing.

[Saxum]

It is interesting on how some big body QBs like Logan Thomas never learned to block until switching to TE but others like Allen seem to block pretty well when necessary without doing the TE blocking route.  I cannot imagine Allen spending limited time in practicing blocking.  These converted TEs are expected to block despite many TEs in college who never learned to block and are just receiving TEs.

[HardyBoy]

1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

Are you talking Dustin Hopkins from the 2013 draft - multiple FOs ago.  
 

The miss on Hopkins was so long ago and had no bearing on the other events.  The Teller trade gave additional ammo for Diggs and the extra 6th was used on Bass, but both occurred 9 months after the Teller trade - the Teller trade was not made in anticipation of those moves.

 

Hopkins would of been nice and had beat out Lindell, but got injured just before the start of the season.  The Bills were forced to bring in Carpenter - who has a career year in 2013 and beats out Hopkins in 2014.  Hopkins finally emerged in 2015.  The Bills totally recognized Hopkins talent - which was why he won the job before the injury.  Kicker is a hard place to hang onto a guy after injury - when his replacement goes 33 of 36 and has most kickoffs for touchbacks.

 

Everyone's allowed a loud wrong take every now and then.

 

Alright, the Hopkins, yes Dustin Hopkins, decision wasn't the worst in years and I did think of Carpenter right after I posted.

 

That said, Carpenter began regressing to the mean basically the following year in the end and Hopkins is on the way to be a top 15 kicker for a decade.

 

Beane kept Bass this time around, in a somewhat similar situation.

[Mister Defense]

11 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

What the heck are you even talking about with this.  Yeah Dabol struggles to evaluate talent - that is just ridiculous.

 

First go through with Thomas - which this will be like the third or fourth thread about him - what makes you think anything he did in Washington would have translated to Buffalo.  The Bills spent multiple years teaching him the TE position and recognized he was not a TE that was going to develop into the style of TE they wanted.  
 

Do you really think the Bills in that offense last year with Diggs, Beasley, Brown (when healthy), McKenzie, and Davis target Thomas 110 times - nope - not a chance.  More than likely if even making the team (which I doubt) he would get similar to the 60 targets that Kroft and Knox got.  If you look at the combined stats for Knox and Kroft - they averaged better Y/R than Thomas, similar catch %, and same number of TDs.  The difference was in the targets Thomas saw twice as many throws because Smith uses the TEs more than Allen does typically and Washington had significantly less talent at WR - therefore needing to use the TE more. 
 

Thomas on the Bills (same issue I have with Ertz) just does not move anything because without huge (WR type) targets of 90-120 targets - their numbers are right in line with Knox/Kroft from the last 2 years.  You want to compare Thomas to someone on the Bills - the position/player you are comparing is Beasley and Beasley blew Thomas out of the water.  Thomas on the Bills would be an even poorer blocker than Knox was and they would not have lined him out wide because they used the TE as an addition Blitz pick-up to give Allen more time.

 

Teller has been discussed over and over and it is just a stupid argument.  But the part that really gets me is this great run blocker.  Do people honestly believe on a pass first team that Teller (pass blocking is a huge weakness of his) even makes the Bills OL.  Then for the argument that Thomas and Teller would of made the difference in the AFCCG - you know what would of made a difference having any of our 3 top guards fully healthy, or any of our top 4 WRs healthy.  Teller and a random run game makes nearly no difference for a pass first team and Tellers struggles in the passing game meant when we were behind - he was more likely to be a problem than a solution.

 

Look I get it sometimes good players move on and shine and get better.  In this case neither player got better the after the Bills moved on - both players stunk in 2019 after the Bills moved on.  They both fell into ideal situations that came about last year.  Neither player after their 2018 seasons in Buffalo deserved to be here and neither player based upon their 2019 performance would have made last years roster.  Wish them luck and move on - it is ok to do that and recognize fit means a lot for players.

 

🤦‍♂️

 

Wrong.  It is a very valid point; illogical to say otherwise, whether you agree with it or not.

 

To say the Bills, clearly a player or two away from reaching the Super Bowl last year, would not have had a better chance with Teller, the number one ranked guard in the NFL by PFF, and Thomas, with almost 700 yards as a tight end, is ridiculous.

 

To not think that the Bills two biggest weak areas, glaring holes, would not have been dramatically different, better, with, instead, the number one player at his position, and the number 14 player is shockingly illogical.

 

Such poor analysis, when the facts  of the matter seem very clear.

 

The Bills have come a long way, but we should not be homers, should not ignore when they make mistakes.  That won't make the team stronger, only honest, objective fact based analysis will.  These were two big misses, letting two players go who seem to be on their way to top level careers at their positions-- positions that are still such obviously weak areas on the team, still obstacles to success--and, maybe, to beating the Chiefs.

 

Kind of duh analysis, I think, a no brainer. Mistakes by Dabol, and, he makes them.   A running game would not have just been nice last year, but as I said since September, would be essential in January. It was ,and the Bills didn't have a good one. 

 

 

 

[Doc]

13 minutes ago, HardyBoy said:

Everyone's allowed a loud wrong take every now and then.

 

Alright, the Hopkins, yes Dustin Hopkins, decision wasn't the worst in years and I did think of Carpenter right after I posted.

 

That said, Carpenter began regressing to the mean basically the following year in the end and Hopkins is on the way to be a top 15 kicker for a decade.

 

Beane kept Bass this time around, in a somewhat similar situation.

 

Carpenter was 85.2% kicking in 2015.  Hopkins was 89.3%.  The difference was 1 more missed kick by Carpenter.

 

As for Hopkins, he missed 7 kicks last year.  I'm not sure if most were the fault of the holder/LS like with Bass, but it's something to keep an eye on.

 

 

[Mark Vader]

3 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

And what?  If you don't like the thread don't read it or don't comment on it.  Logan Thomas was the lead story for the NFL section of ESPN.com today making the thread timely.  

Timely for whom?

 

The guy is no longer with us. Good luck to him.

 

I'd rather stay focused on what we are doing with the players we have.

[dpberr]

Logan Thomas and Alex Smith

 

Zach Ertz and Carson Wentz

 

Pressure release valves for their respective QBs.

 

Whoever Indy has at TE will have an amazing year. 

 

I don't think the Bills missed on Thomas. I think Thomas found an ideal situation, and sometimes that just happens. We all back into good things at times.

[Doc]

3 minutes ago, Mister Defense said:

Wrong.  It is a very valid point; illogical to say otherwise, whether you agree with it or not.

 

To say the Bills, clearly a player or two away from reaching the Super Bowl last year, would not have had a better chance with Teller, the number one ranked guard in the NFL by PFF, and Thomas, with almost 700 yards as a tight end, is ridiculous.

 

To not think that the Bills two biggest weak areas, glaring holes, would not have been dramatically different, better, with, instead, the number one player at his position, and the number 14 player is shockingly illogical.

 

Such poor analysis, when the facts  of the matter seem very clear.

 

The Bills have come a long way, but we should not be homers, should not ignore when they make mistakes.  That won't make the team stronger, only honest, objective fact based analysis will.  These were two big misses, letting two players go who seem to be on their way to top level careers at their positions-- positions that are still such obviously weak areas on the team, still obstacles to success--and, maybe, to beating the Chiefs.

 

Kind of duh analysis, I think, a no brainer. Mistakes by Dabol, and, he makes them.   A running game would not have just been nice last year, but as I said since September, would be essential in January. It was ,and the Bills didn't have a good one.

 

Thomas was Washington's only TE.  If you were to add-up the output of the Bills' TE's, they fell 212 yards short while having 2 more TDs, on 62% of the targets that Logan got.  And the majority of targets were always going to go to the WRs.

 

Teller would have been more of an impact player.  Whether it would have been enough to get them past the Chefs is debatable but unlikely.

[Thurman#1]

14 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

After seeing Logan Thomas break out with the WFT, my initial thought was how did the staff miss his future development having him in Buffalo for two years.  It's not as if there was a superstar TE that got 90% of the reps.  Of course it reminds you of the Wyatt Teller story as well.  I then decided to put a different spin on it.  Maybe the Bills' staff is the reason he has progressed.  Maybe they deserve a lot of the credit.  Maybe they can do the same with Knox and Sweeney,  

 

 

It's neither a miss nor a success. It's bits of both, depending on what you're talking about. 

 

At seeing his possibilities, it's a success. At being able to develop him to his full potential on the team, it's a miss. At the development process, we don't really know, but with how well they've developed so many players here, it's probably somewhere around 80:20 success.

 

People are saying the Teller thing was a failure. Not really. Parts of it certainly were. Drafting him was a success. He developed well under our coaches. But our GM has brought in a ton of OLs to compete every year, ensuring we'll have to get rid of a guy or two who can really play. With hindsight, was trading him a mistake? Sure. Clearly.

 

The bottom line, though, is that you can't see the future. What every team does is to do their best to play the percentages and try to guess what each guy's future will be. There will be some missed predictions. That's just the way the process works. And if the process doesn't work and you're producing a bad team or OL or whatever you're looking at, then yeah, failure is happening and changes need to be made.

 

But this team has gotten better each year. So has the OL, though their run blocking last year was not good, but the pass blocking was very very fine. The process is working. But it will never work perfectly. Everyone should get the possibility out of your mind. Humans don't work that way, and certainly large-scale complex human endeavors don't.

[Putin]

18 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

After seeing Logan Thomas break out with the WFT, my initial thought was how did the staff miss his future development having him in Buffalo for two years.  It's not as if there was a superstar TE that got 90% of the reps.  Of course it reminds you of the Wyatt Teller story as well.  I then decided to put a different spin on it.  Maybe the Bills' staff is the reason he has progressed.  Maybe they deserve a lot of the credit.  Maybe they can do the same with Knox and Sweeney,  

Yes kind of sort of reminds me of Jerry Hughes story as well !!! 
you are just the worst but good luck anyways AND GOOOOO BIIIIIIILLS !!!!!

Edited June 13, 2021 by Putin

[Rochesterfan]

5 hours ago, Mister Defense said:

 

Wrong.  It is a very valid point; illogical to say otherwise, whether you agree with it or not.

 

To say the Bills, clearly a player or two away from reaching the Super Bowl last year, would not have had a better chance with Teller, the number one ranked guard in the NFL by PFF, and Thomas, with almost 700 yards as a tight end, is ridiculous.

 

To not think that the Bills two biggest weak areas, glaring holes, would not have been dramatically different, better, with, instead, the number one player at his position, and the number 14 player is shockingly illogical.

 

Such poor analysis, when the facts  of the matter seem very clear.

 

The Bills have come a long way, but we should not be homers, should not ignore when they make mistakes.  That won't make the team stronger, only honest, objective fact based analysis will.  These were two big misses, letting two players go who seem to be on their way to top level careers at their positions-- positions that are still such obviously weak areas on the team, still obstacles to success--and, maybe, to beating the Chiefs.

 

Kind of duh analysis, I think, a no brainer. Mistakes by Dabol, and, he makes them.   A running game would not have just been nice last year, but as I said since September, would be essential in January. It was ,and the Bills didn't have a good one. 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes - teams make mistakes, but getting rid of Teller and Thomas when they did were not mistakes.

 

Teller played for the Bills in 2018 and struggled to pass block.  The team could see some ability run blocking, but Teller was 1 dimensional (a guard only) and struggled with the single most important function the Bills were looking to grow - passing.  They traded him to Cleveland where in 2019 with a ton of injuries in a balanced offense - Teller was one of the worst guards in the league and was anticipated to be a 2020 camp cut.  What Changed?

 

2020 brought in Stefanski and Callahan and a run first offense that fit Teller.  When Cleveland was behind and trying to pass - Teller was still a liability on the OL.  So yes if you pick up Teller after his year in Cleveland and put him on the Bills in the AFCCG where we were playing Boettger our #6 guard at the start of the season - maybe we are better, but Teller does not get there on a pass first Bills team and he would not be a starting guard on a pass first team.

 

The stuff about Thomas is just plain wrong.  He does absolutely nothing at all for this team and is a liability.  He does not fit the Bills profile at TE and he produced yardage based strictly on targets.  The Bills TEs were more efficient and better as a group than Thomas on average - they just had a different role.  Alex Smith as a QB makes TEs a high priority - he has done it his entire career - including a year in KC with no WR receiver TDs - only throwing TDs to TEs and RBs.  Even on the current roster Thomas doesn’t make the Bills squad because his role as a split out receiver was handled by Beasley and McKittrick (LOL).

 

In addition Both were gone multiple years and multiple coaching staffs before they broke out.  It was not a mistake made because you can’t always wait for these guys - They may have helped last year in one game, but it most likely costs the Bills games in both 2019 and 2020 and they do not achieve the playoffs and other records with them here. 
 

It is also ok to acknowledge that players must have proper fit to grow and become talented and if that fit is not in Buffalo - they never develop in the same way.  Teller was bad in Buffalo and Cleveland until a 180 degree shift in offense game planning to a power run and run first offense.  Without that shift, Teller is not a top end guard.  Thomas took 5 years to become a legitimate pass catching TE, but during that time he could barely see the field.  He finally broke out with a QB that utilizes the TE more than just about any QB on a team that lacked WR depth and talent.  Even then his TDs, and Y/R were less than the Bills underutilized TEs.  If the Bills wanted a split out TE - they would Split out Knox, but they use the TE more out of the H-Back role as a pass protector - something Thomas can’t do at this point.  As a pass catcher split out - Beasley was significantly better and putting Thomas in that role just takes away catches from a better player - HARD PASS.

[GunnerBill]

The Bills did not miss on Logan Thomas. The idea that they should have hung on to a tight end conversion project just in case he had a break out season aged 30 is for the birds. 

 

He was not good enough to make the roster here when they moved on after two years and then he was similarly not good enough in Detroit for a year before he finally put it together in Washington.

[bmur66]

OK I have to ask. WTF are WTF's? 😕

Edited June 13, 2021 by bmur66

[Beerball]

19 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

After seeing Logan Thomas break out with the WFT, my initial thought was how did the staff miss his future development having him in Buffalo for two years.  It's not as if there was a superstar TE that got 90% of the reps.  Of course it reminds you of the Wyatt Teller story as well.  I then decided to put a different spin on it.  Maybe the Bills' staff is the reason he has progressed.  Maybe they deserve a lot of the credit.  Maybe they can do the same with Knox and Sweeney,  

You're bored, aren't you?

[Southern_Bills]

Win some and lose some. Some of these players need a certain system to be great, and that's fine, just perhaps our system wasn't it.

 

Front offices batting avg. Is pretty good right now so I won't get on them to hard. 😉

[machine gun kelly]

Teller and Thomas were not stars here.  They took the info. They had and made decisions.  I’m happy for Teller, but he wouldn’t gel well in a pass happy offense.

 

Thomas was the only TE  option for the WFT.  Does the WFT have any sort of a WR room like ours?  You know our crew, but WFT had arguably one of the worst WR crew in the NFL.

 

I know it’s June so fine with me everyone weighs in on it as it was enlightening to me others opinions.

[SoTier]

Logan Thomas was a fourth round pick by the Cardinals.  He was active for 2 games as a rookie in 2014, and then didn't play in another NFL game until 2017 with the Bills at a  time when the Bills didn't really have an NFL-caliber offense, both players and coaches.   Daboll was a new hire in 2018 and was the only offensive hold-over among the offensive coaches going into 2019 IIRC.  Josh Allen was a rookie QB who was more notable for his running and "hero ball" play rather than his his passing skills.  Thomas then went on to Detroit where he didn't light up the league, either.   Finally, in his seventh season as a pro, Thomas had a decent season with Washington.

 

That's 1 decent season in a 7 year career with 4 different teams in which he started all of 23 games, 15 just last season.  How, exactly, can anybody consider Thomas "a miss" by the Bills ... or the Cards or the Lions???

 

 

Edited June 13, 2021 by SoTier

[Alphadawg7]

16 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

No one has addressed my other point. Maybe the staff did a good job in developing him but it just took too long to see the finished product.  Heck maybe he completely regresses next year.  Who knows.  

I did address that point where I said it’s also about scheme fit and opportunity.  Just because a player excels in one scheme doesn’t mean he would of in another either.  But also, mainly my point about opportunity.  A lot of players need in game time to really start to develop, but when said player is buried on a depth chart that’s not really possible.  But then said player goes to another team where the opportunity for reps are there and that helps hone their development and expedite it.

 

For example, I’m not sure anyone outside Buffalo knows who Wyatt Teller is today if he remained a Bill.  He wouldn’t have gotten the reps to unseat anyone and would have struggled to shine behind our depth last year just like his rookie year.  
 

But going to Cleveland and filling a hole have him the opportunity to fully develop and earn playing time.  

[BarleyNY]

27 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I did address that point where I said it’s also about scheme fit and opportunity.  Just because a player excels in one scheme doesn’t mean he would of in another either.  But also, mainly my point about opportunity.  A lot of players need in game time to really start to develop, but when said player is buried on a depth chart that’s not really possible.  But then said player goes to another team where the opportunity for reps are there and that helps hone their development and expedite it.

 

For example, I’m not sure anyone outside Buffalo knows who Wyatt Teller is today if he remained a Bill.  He wouldn’t have gotten the reps to unseat anyone and would have struggled to shine behind our depth last year just like his rookie year.  
 

But going to Cleveland and filling a hole have him the opportunity to fully develop and earn playing time.  

I want to chime in on the scheme argument.  I used to think that it was a valid reason to excuse Beane, but got set straight here by a long time member (whose name escapes me at the moment).  He made the very valid point that every NFL team utilizes both power/gap and I/O zone schemes.  Also Teller has done just as well when running plays in both as he is as strong as he is agile.  Here is a breakdown of him playing against one of the best DTs in the league - Matthew Ioannidis:

 

 

 

Edited June 13, 2021 by BarleyNY