Fairburn would swap Allen for Mahomes. Would you?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I would not swap Josh Allen for anyone unless it involved the procedure used to repay a Medieval Welshman for the death of a mouse-killing cat under Cyfraith Hywel

 

Since Josh has no tail (that we know of) we modify the procedure to hold Josh upside down by the toes of his "My Cause My Cleats" so that his fingertips just brush the ground.  Since he's alive and we want to keep him that way, assure a proper oxygen supply with Harrison Phillips' Scuba gear

 

Now pour gold around him until (without walls to constrain it or anything)  the toes of his cleats are covered.

 

When you have a pile of gold big enough to cover him in entirety, the rest of the deal may be negotiated.

[NewEra]

45 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

By most measures, Josh had a better 2020 than Mahomes did.  He is ascending as you say and has yet to show a seasonal regression in performance.although maybe we'll see it this year.  Mahomes was more what he is now right out of the box in a much better offense but he has not equaled the 2018 season in his last two.  When your first full year as starter is an MVP performance, it's tough to see it go up from there.  If you believe in trends and projections then Josh looks to be his equal over the next decade.   He is our guy and we should be happy to ride with him and see where this thing goes.  

👍🏻  I agree, he’s my guy and I wouldn’t trade him for Mahomes or any other QB in the league.  
 

One thing we need to take into consideration though and it has been mentioned in other threads in the past:  Josh’s one amazing season took place during a season in which there were little to no fans in every game.  The AFCCG was the biggest crowd of the year and, while our OL and offensive game plan certainly weren’t up to the challenge of the chiefs average D...... I don’t think Josh responded very well either.  
 

After reading several opinions here regarding how a full crowd wouldn’t have affected his season very much, I can’t say that I agree with that completely.  I’m obviously not a professional athlete with lots of big crowd experience, but in the 20 or so important games I’ve played in my lifetime, I was able to sense the size of the crowd and the magnitude of the moment to a much finer degree when playing in front of thousands of people as opposed to a few hundred.  I would say that my play was below par throughout the first quarter or so of the big games, partly due to the pressure of playing in front of so many people. It’s not as if Josh was a dominant success story throughout his career.  2020 was his best season as an athlete, HS, college or professional. And it was in front of little to no fans.  
 

Again.....I’d still take Josh over Mahomes, but stringing together dominating seasons in front of full stadiums is another feather in Mahomes’ cap that Josh has yet to achieve 

Edited May 24, 2021 by NewEra

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

That makes a lot of sense actually as this this thread basically turned into Homer Circle Jerk and Josh Allen Blind Loyalty Litmus Test.  Sad.

 

I’m rooting for Allen because he’s the Bills QB.  I believe him to be capable of taking that final step, but I’m not giving him credit for doing so until he does.  If he takes a step or two backwards I’ll still root for him, but I’d want an upgrade. That just means that I root for the team, not a player over the team, and that I understand things like logic. 

this thread was about player swapping. I support the bills organization as a whole. starting at the top with the GM. the team. I recall not long ago we had a stoned GM that thought he could build a dynasty, drafting bust after bust at the QB position, a drought that lasted 17 years, that was sad.

 

then came along beane. McD and the culture change began. then they drafted number 17. many were down on the pick, a few thought they picked the wrong josh.

 

I was even skeptical to a degree.

 

 

the last 3 seasons of development and last season in particular with he and the team sweeping the division and reaching the afcc, sold me.

 

 

 

I support the team. I support JA and no hypothetical scenario about swapping with another teams QB, one who some seem to bow to like some god at the position is going to change that. 

 

 

JA is my choice.

 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

 

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

this thread was about player swapping. I support the bills organization as a whole. starting at the top with the GM. the team. I recall not long ago we had a stoned GM that thought he could build a dynasty, drafting bust after bust at the QB position, a drought that lasted 17 years, that was sad.

 

then came along beane. McD and the culture change began. then they drafted number 17. many were down on the pick, a few thought they picked the wrong josh.

 

I was even skeptical to a degree.

 

 

the last 3 seasons of development and last season in particular with he and the team sweeping the division and reaching the afcc, sold me.

 

 

 

I support the team. I support JA and no hypothetical scenario about swapping with another teams QB, one who some seem to bow to like some god at the position is going to change that. 

 

 

JA is my choice.

 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

 

I believe the front office would not make this trade, all thing being equal.

[eball]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

We can discuss it, but I don’t see one iota of evidence that suggests that allen is better than Mahomes.  During the season that Allen edged Mahomes in mvp votes, Mahomes went 2-0 vs allen head to head watching Allen flounder in each game and ended his season in embarrassing fashion.  
 

If we’re discussing the future, I’ll bow out of that conversation because I don’t claim to tell the future very often.  All I’ll say is that 17 definitely has a chance to be better and I think he may eventually be the best qb in the league......but he hasn’t proven than to me yet.  He’s been great for one season, while Mahomes has been one of the greatest for 3, possibly having the best start to a career for any player in league history.  One great season, with no fans in the stands isn’t enough to have a real debate about this imo

 

Ok, so what you're basically saying is you don't want to answer the question, because anyone making a swap of Allen for Mahomes is obviously basing it upon how they believe the two QBs will fare, respectively, in the future.  Is anyone saying Allen has accomplished what Mahomes has so far?  Of course not!

[NewEra]

16 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Ok, so what you're basically saying is you don't want to answer the question, because anyone making a swap of Allen for Mahomes is obviously basing it upon how they believe the two QBs will fare, respectively, in the future.  Is anyone saying Allen has accomplished what Mahomes has so far?  Of course not!

I answered the question at hand, would you trade 17 for 15..... I wouldn’t trade 17 for 15.  I answered why I would keep him....because that’s my dude ❤️.  Not because I think he’s the better qb atm.....but it’s close and I could see him being better in the future (as soon as this season is possible for sure).   
 

Not really sure if there’s another question at hand.   If the question is, who will be better going forward, I don’t want to answer that because I find it similar to a Todd McShay mock draft, meaningless.  I’m some dude on the couch predicting the future.  Roll the dice and pick one.  Both seem to have the upside of being one of the best qbs ever.  If I were forced to bet all of my assets on the matter, I’d pick Mahomes based on what I’ve seen so far.  3 great seasons, an mvp, a SB mvp, a Lombardi + 3 AFCCCGs in 3 seasons vs an mvp runner up + 1 AFCCGs.  But I still think it’s a roll of the dice on who is the better QB going forward. 

[BillsShredder83]

I do think mahomies is the better player right now, but he's at his ceiling, Josh hasn't hit yet. Admittedly biased here, but I love Josh like a relative, so the gap is close enough I'm keeping who I have. Now if I owned the team and billions at stake, maybe I drop the Homer bias, but I'll never know so, firm thanks but no thanks

[Rocky Landing]

11 hours ago, FireChans said:

This “trajectory” business only exists because ALLEN WAS ONCE NOT GOOD.

I think we can both agree that with time in the league, both QBs will obtain a mastery of the position more than they do today. However, implying that somehow Allen has a “better” trajectory simply because he used to be not good and now he’s looking great just holds no water with me. 
 

Peyton Manning had an error filled rookie year. His team was not successful. His next few seasons, he cleaned it up and became great. Tom Brady was extremely successful from the jump (albeit he wasn’t slinging day 1) and he eventually improved quite a bit as well. But Brady ended up the better QB. Peyton had the “trajectory.” It didn’t matter.

 

Starting out not good and becoming great is not an indicator that you will eventually be better than a great player who started out great. It just isn’t.

The point is that a lot of people did not see Josh Allen's potential when he was "not good." It's not a stretch to look at Mahomes stats from the last four years and conclude that, for the most part, he has either reached his potential, or basically plateaued. Of course there will be incremental improvements.

 

Likewise, it is also not a stretch to look at Josh Allen's stats from the last three years, and conclude that he has likely not reached his potential, and has not likely plateaued. Certainly, he is going to start leveling off. But to look at Josh Allen's statistical progress from the last three seasons, and compare them to Mahomes statistical progress over the same period, it seems more likely that Josh Allen will see a greater improvement in the '21-'22 season than will Patrick Mahomes. 

 

Granted, as you say, Mahomes is already great. We can debate whether or not Allen is "great," and we can debate just how far behind he is from Mahomes. You can also make an argument that Josh Allen's inevitable plateau will be lower than Mahomes'.

 

BUT... to simply say that Allen's "'trajectory” business only exists because ALLEN WAS ONCE NOT GOOD," is a cop out. This "trajectory business" exists because Allen has improved enormously over three seasons.

[msw2112]

I don't have time to read 8 pages of this thread, so forgive me if I am echoing what others have said.  Football is a team sport and is all about chemistry.  To an extent, that chemistry even extends to the fanbase and community.  Mahomes may be a better QB than Allen (and as time passes, he may not), but they are both great players.  Allen has a chemistry with the Bills players, coaches, fans and community.  The chemistry has developed over the last few years and continues to grow and improve with time.  He's the perfect fit for this team, right now.  So no, I wouldn't make that swap.  (And Mahomes has a similar chemistry where he is in KC.)

Edited May 24, 2021 by msw2112

[JESSEFEFFER]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

👍🏻  I agree, he’s my guy and I wouldn’t trade him for Mahomes or any other QB in the league.  
 

One thing we need to take into consideration though and it has been mentioned in other threads in the past:  Josh’s one amazing season took place during a season in which there were little to no fans in every game.  The AFCCG was the biggest crowd of the year and, while our OL and offensive game plan certainly weren’t up to the challenge of the chiefs average D...... I don’t think Josh responded very well either.  
 

After reading several opinions here regarding how a full crowd wouldn’t have affected his season very much, I can’t say that I agree with that completely.  I’m obviously not a professional athlete with lots of big crowd experience, but in the 20 or so important games I’ve played in my lifetime, I was able to sense the size of the crowd and the magnitude of the moment to a much finer degree when playing in front of thousands of people as opposed to a few hundred.  I would say that my play was below par throughout the first quarter or so of the big games, partly due to the pressure of playing in front of so many people. It’s not as if Josh was a dominant success story throughout his career.  2020 was his best season as an athlete, HS, college or professional. And it was in front of little to no fans.  
 

Again.....I’d still take Josh over Mahomes, but stringing together dominating seasons in front of full stadiums is another feather in Mahomes’ cap that Josh has yet to achieve 

 

I have heard this angle on his play, maybe by you, to which I have replied that Josh has shown a better performance over his career in road games.  This may be slanted by few more extra windy games at home but at the very least it seems to say that Josh is a road warrior and a hostile crowd does not affect him in significant way.  Think Vikings, Dolphins and Cowboys road games.  I will say this about your point that when things seem to be slipping away he can go batshit crazy, desperately trying to make a play but usually that's more due to game circumstances created just as much by the team performance in general as by him.  The Texans playoff game is often cited but there were plenty of instances where his teammates came up less than they needed to be.

 

Now if you are talking more of an emotional state of being vs. the actual difficulties presented by operating with the added difficulties of being overwhelmed by crowd noise, then maybe that's something to look for and I will keep an open mind on it.

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

 

I have heard this angle on his play, maybe by you, to which I have replied that Josh has shown a better performance over his career in road games.  This may be slanted by few more extra windy games at home but at the very least it seems to say that Josh is a road warrior and a hostile crowd does not affect him in significant way.  Think Vikings, Dolphins and Cowboys road games.  I will say this about your point that when things seem to be slipping away he can go batshit crazy, desperately trying to make a play but usually that's more due to game circumstances created just as much by the team performance in general as by him.  The Texans playoff game is often cited but there were plenty of instances where his teammates came up less than they needed to be.

 

Now if you are talking more of an emotional state of being vs. the actual difficulties presented by operating with the added difficulties of being overwhelmed by crowd noise, then maybe that's something to look for and I will keep an open mind on it.

Agreed.  I’m not claiming that his play will suffer in front of loud, hostile crowds, just that in his epic jump to “elite” QB happened during a season in which he was playing in front of little to no hostile crowds.  I do believe that hostile crowds can have a negative effect on a QBs (and every other athletes) play from time to time.  We’ll find out in a few months if it will negatively effect our boy.

[WideNine]

On 5/23/2021 at 1:08 PM, Doc said:

I would actually love to see what Josh could do on the Chefs.  Then people would be talking about every team trading their QB for him.

 

There are some talent differences on the roster, but I think it goes deeper - I truly think that the Bills were out-coached by Andy's staff last season.

 

He took them to the woodshed twice so if McD embraces that growth mindset, then he and his coaching staff need to take a long look in the mirror and think not just about roster changes, but how they can "up" their own game too.

 

Although it seemed like we were completely out of that playoff game, stat-wise the gap is not so great that the Bills could not close it. The biggest differences, they had about a 100 yards more passing which leads into the discussion of our lack of defense production; Our 1 sack for 0 yards lost to their 4 sacks for 53 yards and our secondary allowing large chunks per pass play. Both teams had one turnover (the Bills an INT and the Chiefs a fumble lost).

 

The difference in Red Zone efficiency was glaring and I believe that may be where Spagnuolo turned up the heat and Allen took more sacks too.  Out of our 5 trips to the red zone we scored twice, out of the Chiefs 6 trips to the red zone they scored 5 times. Allen was running for his life far more than Mahomes, and it would be hard to say how successful Mahomes or Allen would be in different systems.

 

Mahomes under heavy-pressure from a dominant front-four (Tampa for instance) that can also cover all his receiving options, holds the ball longer and looks a lot more vulnerable and mistake-prone than Mahomes facing a defensive front that is weaker and has to borrow from coverage to blitz to manufacture pressure. Allen is similar in that he excels when teams blitz him, but when teams can get pressure on him with limited fronts and dedicate a lot of resources to covering receivers he holds the ball longer, has to account for pass-pro break downs, and makes some poor decisions as well.

 

I do think Mahomes at this stage in his growth reads the field better and still has better touch on his throws - particularly the short ones that require leading receivers sans heat on the throw (wheel routes, screens, etc...), but neither young QB has reached their ceiling and I think Allen may have more room to grow into his athletic gifts and cannon arm if he keeps working like he has.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 27, 2021 by WideNine

[folz]

No trade. Allen all the way!

 

If Josh isn't as good as Mahomes yet, he's certainly biting at his heels. Plus Josh is the perfect guy for Buffalo and for this team. He wants to be in Buffalo. He loves Buffalo. His attitude and demeanor are so perfect for this city and for leading this team and culture that McDermott and Beane have created. Josh is probably more gifted than Mahomes physically (because of his size and running ability---which I believe to be superior to Mahomes). They both have cannons for arms, so a draw there. They are both uber-competitors..another draw. And Allen is quickly catching up in the mental aspect of the game. Plus I have to say, I really did not like how KC and Mahomes handled themselves in the Championship game last year---not very classy. I'm sure Mahomes is overall a very nice guy...but I didn't love his sportsmanship in that game. 

 

To me, even if Mahomes is still currently ahead of Josh, I don't think the difference is big enough for that to be the answer to the original question: "If you could swap any player for any player at the same position, who would it be?" How about swapping Addison for one of the best pass rushers in the league, or Levi for one of the best corners in the league, etc. etc. I think there are a number of other positions where the divide would be greater than between Josh and Patrick at QB.

[first_and_ten]

I am not trading Allen for anyone

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Rocky Landing said:

The point is that a lot of people did not see Josh Allen's potential when he was "not good." It's not a stretch to look at Mahomes stats from the last four years and conclude that, for the most part, he has either reached his potential, or basically plateaued. Of course there will be incremental improvements.

 

Likewise, it is also not a stretch to look at Josh Allen's stats from the last three years, and conclude that he has likely not reached his potential, and has not likely plateaued. Certainly, he is going to start leveling off. But to look at Josh Allen's statistical progress from the last three seasons, and compare them to Mahomes statistical progress over the same period, it seems more likely that Josh Allen will see a greater improvement in the '21-'22 season than will Patrick Mahomes. 

 

Granted, as you say, Mahomes is already great. We can debate whether or not Allen is "great," and we can debate just how far behind he is from Mahomes. You can also make an argument that Josh Allen's inevitable plateau will be lower than Mahomes'.

 

BUT... to simply say that Allen's "'trajectory” business only exists because ALLEN WAS ONCE NOT GOOD," is a cop out. This "trajectory business" exists because Allen has improved enormously over three seasons.

Exactly. Mahomes can’t improve “enormously” because he’s already great. It’s a diminishing return.

 

Josh won’t see a similar jump from year 3 to 4 as he did from 2-3. Simply put, how much better can he get? He’s a top 5 QB. Is he gonna throw 70 TD’s? No.

 

That’s why calling Mahomes plateauing and dinging him for not improving like Josh (who we all admit was not good at one point) is silly. Also, everyone saw Josh’s potential before he even took a snap, he was in the conversation for #1 overall. This isn’t an UDFA making the roster.

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree it wouldn't be 32-0. I think Allen would get around a third of the votes.

I also think if Mahomes was “off the board” Josh would get the significant majority of the votes. 
 

Quite simply, today, I believe that Josh is the second best young QB in football.

[dpberr]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nick Foles? He was pretty pedestrian for Reid. His best years came in Kelly and Pederson's systems.

Doug Pederson's system is largely Andy Reid's KC system.  Foles is average in any other system but that one.  

 

Another case in point is Chad Henne.  I don't think he pilots the Chiefs to a playoff win under any other coach.  

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, dpberr said:

Doug Pederson's system is largely Andy Reid's KC system.  Foles is average in any other system but that one.  

 

Another case in point is Chad Henne.  I don't think he pilots the Chiefs to a playoff win under any other coach.  

 

Pederson's system for Foles was more Chip Kelly than Andy Reid. He did what Foles is good at. Option football. 

[Rocky Landing]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I would not swap Josh Allen for anyone unless it involved the procedure used to repay a Medieval Welshman for the death of a mouse-killing cat under Cyfraith Hywel

 

Since Josh has no tail (that we know of) we modify the procedure to hold Josh upside down by the toes of his "My Cause My Cleats" so that his fingertips just brush the ground.  Since he's alive and we want to keep him that way, assure a proper oxygen supply with Harrison Phillips' Scuba gear

 

Now pour gold around him until (without walls to constrain it or anything)  the toes of his cleats are covered.

 

When you have a pile of gold big enough to cover him in entirety, the rest of the deal may be negotiated.

Been snacking on those cicadas, I see...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, Rocky Landing said:

Been snacking on those cicadas, I see...

 

No no, I'm Hapless not Randy

[BillsFan619]

On 5/23/2021 at 12:45 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

I don't know how much this topic has been covered over the years and I'm sure this won't be the last of it, but in The Athletic's weekly mailbag Matthew Fairburn was asked the following:

 

If you could do a player swap for any player in the NFL, who would it be and why? Rules are as follows: both players have to be starters, and the players being traded have to occupy the same position. So no WR for CB. How specific are we getting? I think we should differentiate 1 tech and 3 tech. Hopefully, that gives you a good framework. – Matt W.

 

And here was Fairrburn's response:

 

I don’t mean to disrespect Josh Allen, but swapping him for Patrick Mahomes seems to be the move. I would say that about every team in the NFL right now. Quarterback is the most important position in football, and Mahomes is the clear best quarterback in the league. No player would have a bigger impact on a team.

 

I wouldn't. I guess this is just another indicator I'm too much of a homer...?

 

The thing is that I realize that at no point in the last 3 years can you necessarily say that Josh was better. But to me Josh is still ascending and Mahomes is pretty much what he is already... which is fantastic. I also think Mahomes has benefitted from a better roster (especially the weapons around him) and better offensive coaching and development (love Daboll but Reid >>>> Daboll). I also think Allen is more physically to last in the NFL. And frankly I just think Allen's mentality/attitude is better than Mahomes.

 

I readily acknowledge that Mahomes has been better than Allen. However, I don’t believe the Bills would be a better team over the next decade plus if we simply swapped QBs and kept everything else in place.

 

What say you?

Nope, not even a thought!