Fairburn would swap Allen for Mahomes. Would you?

[ganesh]

This question is like who would you rather have:  Jim Kelly or   either of Marino, Elway or Young......

[PrimeTime101]

6 hours ago, FireChans said:

The correct answer is yes.

But I would say that you could play this game with would you trade X QB for Allen and that would be a yes for 30 teams in the NFL. Which counts for something.

Can you really have a higher ceiling than league MVP and Super Bowl winner?

must be a real nice shiny crystal ball. I am not expecting Mahomes to go to the superbowl every year. I mean I get what your saying in this reply your saying Josh wont be as good and or better then Mahomes. Till this year is over none of us can say either way.

[FireChans]

18 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

must be a real nice shiny crystal ball. I am not expecting Mahomes to go to the superbowl every year. I mean I get what your saying in this reply your saying Josh wont be as good and or better then Mahomes. Till this year is over none of us can say either way.

Josh might! 
 

The real crystal ball guys are the ones who are saying they wouldn’t take a superior player because he will.

[hondo in seattle]

I voted no.   There's not much of a gap between them anymore.   And its been decades since we've had a successful signal caller in Buffalo.   Josh is thriving here and his teammates love him.  Why mess with that?

[Gugny]

7 hours ago, ganesh said:

This question is like who would you rather have:  Jim Kelly or   either of Marino, Elway or Young......

 

Marino, Elway or Young.

 

 

Edited May 24, 2021 by Gugny

[Sherlock Holmes]

3 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

He didn't like Allen coming out, had a low grade on him. He did like Mason Rudolph though.

I also liked Rudolph but as a 2nd string.

 

Edited May 24, 2021 by Sherlock Holmes

[Tcali]

I would take mahomes on skill. JA is a super athlete for a white guy and a great kid and a winner. Close call.

1 hour ago, ganesh said:

This question is like who would you rather have:  Jim Kelly or   either of Marino, Elway or Young......

I love Jim---but I would take any of the other 3 over him.

[Cheektowaga Chad]

Strictly player for player. I'd take mahomes

 

But for buffalo and the bills I don't know if any player has been a better fit as Josh Allen

[NoHuddleKelly12]

As has been said upthread, Allen’s ceiling is still in front of us—Mahomes for as great as he is, I don’t think there’s more yet to plumb in terms of raw potential…it’s crazy to think where Allen can still go, even after last year's revelation. Solid no trade here. 

[Utah John]

Each player's team built their offense around their skills and both played great last year.

 

Here's why I would take Mahomes over dearly beloved Josh Allen:  performance in the playoffs.  Allen played poorly in the loss to the Texans.  He didn't play particularly well in the playoff wins over the Colts and Ravens, and he looked bad in the loss to the Chiefs.

 

The only time I've seen Mahomes not play really well in a playoff game is last year's Super Bowl, when the Bucs pass rush against a team with a banged up O line dominated, and created a very un-Mahomes type game.

 

When Allen shows he can consistently play great in playoff games, I'll change my vote.

8 minutes ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

As has been said upthread, Allen’s ceiling is still in front of us—Mahomes for as great as he is, I don’t think there’s more yet to plumb in terms of raw potential…it’s crazy to think where Allen can still go, even after last year's revelation. Solid no trade here. 

Which direction will Allen go in?  Toward Mahomes' level?  Or to Carson Wentz's level?  A couple of years ago people were saying about Wentz what they said about Allen last year.  Then the bottom fell out.  I do NOT think that will happen with Allen, who has worked too hard to fall apart now.  But the point is, predictions are hard, particularly about the future.  (Thanks Yogi.)

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

 

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Josh Allen had Kelvin Benjamin, Zay Jones, Robert Foster and Charles Clay and an offensive line full of general junk other than a rookie Dion Dawkins.

 

It's truly incredible how bad that supporting cast was for Allen his rookie year. At the time we didn't really know it because it was like, well, the QB is kind of raw too and he's a rookie so maybe these guys are being held back by the guy throwing the ball?

 

But now three years later we know that three of the main receivers that year never played another down of football after that season. Andre Holmes, Charley Clay and Kelvin Benjamin. And it's not like these guys were 35 years old. They just weren't good anymore. 

 

Foster? His career year was Allen's rookie year and since then he's moved on to another team and been irrelevant.

Zay Jones? Same story as Foster. Career year with Allen and irrelevant with the Raiders.

McCoy? Allen's rookie year was his last year as a lead back. 

 

Then Beasley and Brown show up in 2019 and boom both have career years with Allen.

 

Diggs comes in 2020 and has a career year.

 

There seems to be a strong trend of players teaming up with Allen and Allen getting the most out of those players. I'm excited about Sanders coming in. It's probably unrealistic to expect Sanders to have a career year with Allen at the age of 34 but I think 900+ yards is a strong possibility which would be a return to real relevance for him. 

Edited May 24, 2021 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

5 hours ago, FireChans said:

This is why ceiling is a terrible argument. If Josh isn’t as good as Mahomes right now, you can just say he “hasn’t hit his ceiling yet.” Well what’s his ceiling? What if his ceiling is current Pat Mahomes? What if Pat Mahomes’ ceiling is way higher than Josh Allen’s ceiling? Is the only argument that Josh has a higher ceiling or hasn’t hit his ceiling yet because he wasn’t great his first two season and Mahomes was?

 

 One QB is 6'5" 240 and plays like a cross between Big Ben, Cam Newton and Brett Favre. I would say that is the one with the higher ceiling. 

 

I would expect BOTH QB's to become better QB's, but not necessarily put up better numbers. What I mean by that is that perhaps we have seen the best statistical season from Mahomes already. Kelce is likely not in his prime anymore like he was in Mahomes first three seasons starting. Hill likely not quite as fast.  Either or both of these things could mean Mahomes highest ceiling is never reached again even if he himself becomes a better QB. Same could also be true for Allen of course as well with the exception that Allen has never played three seasons with two elite future HOF receivers in their prime. 

[PrimeTime101]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

Josh might! 
 

The real crystal ball guys are the ones who are saying they wouldn’t take a superior player because he will.

or he wont. books not written on Josh yet

 

[Rocky Landing]

4 hours ago, FireChans said:

Correct. And I would predict that the guy who has been consistently better will continue to consistently better. Versus the guy who hasn’t been better, let alone consistently better.

OK.

But, as a homer, I'm willing to place more value on trajectory, and where that trajectory might land, and how that might translate towards potential, than I am on consistency. And, to be fair to Allen, his upwards trajectory is, by no means, indicative of inconsistency. In fact, it's an easy argument to make that Allens progress has been entirely consistent.

 

If Mahomes continues to be consistently great, and Allen continues to get consistently better, then I will wager that down the road, Allen ends up the better quarterback.

 

And I apologize for continuing to argue in semantics, but this is, after all, an entirely hypothetical discussion in the first place. But, at least we can agree the it is, indeed, an actual debate.

Edited May 24, 2021 by Rocky Landing

[eball]

5 hours ago, NewEra said:

 

You’re certainly entitled to your opinion.  Ask who is the better QB, allen or Mahomes, outside of a Bills message board and I feel the answer would be definitive at this point in the more careers.  
 

I don’t think either of them have reached their ceilings tbh.  Allen may eventually be the better qb.....but I don’t see how anyone can say that Josh is better than Mahomes after what each qb has done so far

“So far” is the key here. Right now I think it’s a much closer proposition than you do.

[NewEra]

7 minutes ago, eball said:

“So far” is the key here. Right now I think it’s a much closer proposition than you do.

Well, I did say he “is” the better qb. I didn’t say he will always be the better qb.  We can only judge them by what they’ve done so far and Mahomes is, imo, clearly the better QB based on his accomplishments to date.  There really isn’t any debate is there?  We can’t judge players on “well, if so and so played with this player and that player than he’d be the best player”.  Well, if Matt Ryan was on the Patriots and Tom Brady was on the Jets, Ryan would be the GOAT and brady would have zero titles.  Brady is the GOAT and Ryan has zero titles.  We talk about what players have actually accomplished.  
 

Once Josh accomplishes more and more, and I believe he will, then the dynamics of this conversation may change.....but as of right now, there is no argument for Josh being better than Mahomes 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

5 hours ago, NewEra said:

I don’t think either of them have reached their ceilings tbh.  Allen may eventually be the better qb.....but I don’t see how anyone can say that Josh is better than Mahomes after what each qb has done so far

 

Well one way to look at this is that it is completely irrelevant what either QB did beyond just last season. Just looking at last season can you tell who the better QB was? Statistically they were near identical in both passer rating and QBR. And they both heavily carried their teams. Neither was a low attempt QB or completely carried or bailed out by a great defense. Taking everything into account; schedule, offensive weapons, team defense etc. I think I would say Allen by a smidge. 

 

The questions really becomes how much weight should we give the past. Allen couldn't complete a pass his rookie year. But how is that even relevant to today? Half those receivers are not even in the league anymore and hell Mahomes didn't even play his rookie year.

[FireChans]

37 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

OK.

But, as a homer, I'm willing to place more value on trajectory, and where that trajectory might land, and how that might translate towards potential, than I am on consistency. And, to be fair to Allen, his upwards trajectory is, by no means, indicative of inconsistency. In fact, it's an easy argument to make that Allens progress has been entirely consistent.

 

If Mahomes continues to be consistently great, and Allen continues to get consistently better, then I will wager that down the road, Allen ends up the better quarterback.

 

And I apologize for continuing to argue in semantics, but this is, after all, an entirely hypothetical discussion in the first place. But, at least we can agree the it is, indeed, an actual debate.

This “trajectory” business only exists because ALLEN WAS ONCE NOT GOOD.

I think we can both agree that with time in the league, both QBs will obtain a mastery of the position more than they do today. However, implying that somehow Allen has a “better” trajectory simply because he used to be not good and now he’s looking great just holds no water with me. 
 

Peyton Manning had an error filled rookie year. His team was not successful. His next few seasons, he cleaned it up and became great. Tom Brady was extremely successful from the jump (albeit he wasn’t slinging day 1) and he eventually improved quite a bit as well. But Brady ended up the better QB. Peyton had the “trajectory.” It didn’t matter.

 

Starting out not good and becoming great is not an indicator that you will eventually be better than a great player who started out great. It just isn’t.

Edited May 24, 2021 by FireChans

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Another way to look at this debate as well is that it is a bet against Allen.

 

If one acknowledges that Allen was the better QB last year, and while that is certainly up for debate I think there's definitely a strong case to be made that he was. If one chooses Mahomes then in the end we are betting that in the next 15 years to come despite Allen being the better QB last season by a smidge or whatever perceived difference one chooses, more often than not and at least 8 out of the next 15 years Mahomes will have the better season. 

 

Looking at just last year and not taking any other years prior into account then taking either side of that bet would feel like flipping a coin. But of course it is the years prior for both players that makes it feel like Mahomes is the sure thing or safer option compared to Allen even though that's likely not reality now given the here and now.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Starting out not good and becoming great is not an indicator that you will eventually be better than a great player who started out great. It just isn’t.

 

That is true. But I don't think it is hard to see why Allen has such a high trajectory or ceiling. He's starting to make a lot of the throws and plays Mahomes makes and at Mahomes level efficiency. And on top of that he's a couple inches taller, 20-30 pounds heavier and can run like Cam Newton. It's certainly not just Bills fans that see his high ceiling either. Greg Cosell, Chris Simms, Jordan Palmer are a few others who see it as well.