Fairburn would swap Allen for Mahomes. Would you?

[NewEra]

13 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Who's arguing that Allen is better? Some of us are arguing Allen will be better, but I haven't seen a single person say that at this moment Allen is better.

I didn’t say anyone in this thread has stated allen is better....i said that anyone who is saying allen is better is a homer and not living in reality.  I didn’t mean in this thread....it was more of a general statement.  My bad, I should’ve made that more clear.  

 

Over the past few allen/Mahomes threads......there have been posters who have said that Allen is better.  They know who they are and I don’t want to get into a back and forth about this.  If you believe that everyone on this board believes Mahomes is better, you’re entitled to that opinion.  I’m not going to dig through hundreds of pages to prove a point.  I know what I’ve read over the last few months and I’ll be ok if you don’t believe me. 
 

 

14 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Now you're being disingenuous. You made the initial accusation, not me. Most people watching that game saw Allen running for his life as an entirely and pretty seriously injured WR corps struggled to get open against a physical secondary.

 

So, you made the claim... where are all these plays?

And I answered...I don’t have time to watch the game.  As I’ve stated, I could care less if you believe me.  You don’t think there were several plays that Josh didn’t take the open check down?  That’s on you.  You’re thinking is incorrect. 

[NewEra]

15 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I thought end of 2019 Allen was actually very good, and the offense's mediocrity was much more on his supporting cast than Allen himself. The step he took from 2019 to 2020 was magnified by the addition of a true #1 WR. Everyone talks about his dumb lateral in the Houston wildcard game. We were only in that game to begin with because of Allen's play. There isn't a QB in the league that could be successful with John Brown and Duke Williams as their top 2 WRs.

you’re entitled to your opinion.  I won’t try and change it.....but the fact is, Josh stated that he fixed his throwing motion in the offseason.  There are videos showing how his throwing motion changed from 19 to 20.  Sorry, I don’t have a link to the videos (nor the desire to prove my point), without  being called disingenuous.

 

Duke williams wasn’t a  top 2 target.  Beasley and brown were. Josh (and maybe Daboll) decided to make Duke our most targeted receiver in the biggest game of the year. 
 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

And I answered...I don’t have time to watch the game.  As I’ve stated, I could care less if you believe me.  You don’t think there were several plays that Josh didn’t take the open check down?  That’s on you.  You’re thinking is incorrect. 

 

We didn't actually land on the Moon.

 

I don't have time to prove it.

 

You don't believe me? That's on you.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

you’re entitled to your opinion.  I won’t try and change it.....but the fact is, Josh stated that he fixed his throwing motion in the offseason.  There are videos showing how his throwing motion changed from 19 to 20.  Sorry, I don’t have a link to the videos (nor the desire to prove my point), without  being called disingenuous.

 

Duke williams wasn’t a  top 2 target.  Beasley and brown were. Josh (and maybe Daboll) decided to make Duke our most targeted receiver in the biggest game of the year. 
 

 

 

Yeah Allen did improve from year 2 to year 3, but he was still quite good at the end of year 2. The larger difference is he had a legitimate #1 WR to throw the ball to and better depth at the position as well. I know I'm mostly alone in this opinion on this board, but I believe the addition of Diggs was more important to that jump than Allen himself, and I don't mean that as a slight against Allen at all.

 

If you happen to have 2 hours to spare at some point, I highly recommend this 2-part video breakdown of Allen's play in late 2019 and 2020 from a non-Bills fan:

 

Part 1: 

 

 

Part 2: 

 

I watched these videos a while ago and I really like how this guy breaks down the position. He talks about things I don't see other analysts talk about - things like depth of target and sight lines and surrounding talent and being able to throw accurately without "perfect" mechanics and understanding leverage on the field.

 

His overall point being that context matters a lot. Allen had 2 years throwing to mediocre talent at best, and the first year he had a legitimate top end talent to throw to he suddenly has a breakout season. That isn't just coincidence and it isn't just because Allen himself improved. NFL offenses have 11 players on the field and it's ridiculous to say the other 10 players can't be factored into these conversations.

 

EDIT: A quick word of warning on the videos, the first 30 minutes or so of part 1 is just the guy talking with no video breakdown, but a lot of what he says is really interesting so I still recommend listening to it all if you have the time.

Edited May 29, 2021 by HappyDays

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

you’re entitled to your opinion.  I won’t try and change it.....but the fact is, Josh stated that he fixed his throwing motion in the offseason.  There are videos showing how his throwing motion changed from 19 to 20.  Sorry, I don’t have a link to the videos (nor the desire to prove my point), without  being called disingenuous.

 

Duke williams wasn’t a  top 2 target.  Beasley and brown were. Josh (and maybe Daboll) decided to make Duke our most targeted receiver in the biggest game of the year. 
 

 

Transplant was quite literally the Pope of the Church of Tyrod. You have a better chance convincing him the sky is green when he locks in on a QB.

[NewEra]

8 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

We didn't actually land on the Moon.

 

I don't have time to prove it.

 

You don't believe me? That's on you.

Every time I make a statement, I don’t feel the need to spend hours of my time (which is LITERALLY what you asked me to do) in order prove it to another poster.  Sorry, not sorry. If you don’t believe me, I’ll sleep just fine. 

[NewEra]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yeah Allen did improve from year 2 to year 3, but he was still quite good at the end of year 2. The larger difference is he had a legitimate #1 WR to throw the ball to and better depth at the position as well. I know I'm mostly alone in this opinion on this board, but I believe the addition of Diggs was more important to that jump than Allen himself, and I don't mean that as a slight against Allen at all.

 

If you happen to have 2 hours to spare at some point, I highly recommend this 2-part video breakdown of Allen's play in late 2019 and 2020 from a non-Bills fan:

 

Part 1: 

 

 

Part 2: 

 

I watched these videos a while ago and I really like how this guy breaks down the position. He talks about things I don't see other analysts talk about - things like depth of target and sight lines and surrounding talent and being able to throw accurately without "perfect" mechanics.

 

His overall point being that context matters a lot. Allen had 2 years throwing to mediocre talent at best, and the first year he had a legitimate top end talent to throw to he suddenly has a breakout season. That isn't just coincidence and it isn't just because Allen himself improved. NFL offenses have 11 players on the field and it's ridiculous to say the other 10 players can't be factored into these conversations.

 

EDIT: A quick word of warning on the videos, the first 30 minutes or so of part 1 is just the guy talking with no video breakdown, but a lot of what he says is really interesting so I still recommend listening to it all if you have the time.

Good post.  I watched both videos awhile back as well.  I also watched another video (months ago) in which the creator broke down his mechanics from 19 to 20 and the difference was noticeable.  
 

Diggs (and Gabe) made a huge impact on his improvement, no question.  His improvement as a thrower, imo, was the biggest difference.  His accuracy along the sideline was pinpoint all season.  Almost every throw he made to the oob marks were perfectly placed.  His ball placement and touch was much better in 20 than 19.  
 

I just see things differently with regards to Josh as a passer.  agree to disagree. 

[Shaw66]

5 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

 

Haha. Good point. What luck. It's like we could have had Jordan but hey it's okay we drafted Lebron the next year.

Now we're REALLY getting ahead of ourselves!  But in fact, that is the kind of greatness I think Mahomes and Allen can achieve.  

[GETTOTHE50]

 

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Now you're being disingenuous. You made the initial accusation, not me. Most people watching that game saw Allen running for his life as an entirely and pretty seriously injured WR corps struggled to get open against a physical secondary.

 

So, you made the claim... where are all these plays?

 

There were plays with open receivers. But Josh absolutely was running for his life. I still maintain we lost that game in the trenches.

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

Transplant was quite literally the Pope of the Church of Tyrod. You have a better chance convincing him the sky is green when he locks in on a QB.

 

This.

[NewEra]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There were plays with open receivers. But Josh absolutely was running for his life. I still maintain we lost that game in the trenches.

 

This.

Oh I agree 💯.  Josh didn’t lose the game by not taking what was given, but he did miss more than a handful of open guys short because he wanted to take bigger shots.  He wasn’t taking what they were giving him.  When teams blitz, guys are open.  KC was blitzing and even when they only brought 4, they confused and manhandled our entire operation 
 

We were completely wrecked up front. We’re also not sure if the crowd may have had an impact on Josh getting the OL Into the correct checks. We hadn’t been whooped up front like that (especially in pass pro) all year.  

[HappyDays]

34 minutes ago, NewEra said:

We hadn’t been whooped up front like that (especially in pass pro) all year.  

 

It was the same against the Chiefs in the first matchup too. For some reason they were our offensive line's kryptonite last year. The Steelers and Colts also killed us in the 1st half of each of those matchups, the difference is our defense held them back long enough for our offense to figure it out. Against the Chiefs both times by the time we figured it out it was too late because they had run up the score and we couldn't slow them down. When we face them this year Daboll and Allen need to have a plan against the pass rush from the start, and the defense can't let them start scoring at will.

[Mat68]

7 hours ago, NewEra said:

Yeah........maybe. Maybe not.  Maybe.  Maybe not.  Maybe, maybe not.  That’s what this thread has turned into.  I prefer to talk about what we know.....as opposed to saying maybe.....maybe not

Ok Allen #2 in MVP Mahomes #3 case closed?

[NewEra]

38 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Ok Allen #2 in MVP Mahomes #3 case closed?

What case?  What is your point?  That allen is better than Mahomes?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I've heard Greg Cossell in more than one interview call Josh Allen the most talented QB in the NFL, 2021 draft picks like Lawrence included.

 

 

Yep. I heard that same segment.

[Mat68]

18 minutes ago, NewEra said:

What case?  What is your point?  That allen is better than Mahomes?

Any one who picks Allen over Mahomes is a homer.... I talked about thier situations.  Ifs and buts..  yadda yadda...  the trending of Allens career can suggest he is player you want in 21.  Third party voters had Allen as more valuable last year over Mahomes.  Yet Bills fans are stupid in believing in it?  I guess Mafia members had a heavy hand in the MVP vote than.  Allen made himself a top 5 qb against heavy resistance among the national media.  Finaly having a guy im taking that over anyone.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Now we're REALLY getting ahead of ourselves!  But in fact, that is the kind of greatness I think Mahomes and Allen can achieve.  

 

Not to mention as great as both can be it's unlikely either ever eclipse Brady. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

9 hours ago, NewEra said:

Josh wasn’t the same QB in 18-19.  He just wasn’t.  He wasn’t as accurate.  He was the worst deep ball thrower in the nfl in 2019.  The worst.  He got with Palmer, hooked himself up to machine, found out what the problems were and he fixed them.  He changes his arm angle dramatically. 
 

you can think w/e you want, but 2019 JA was not THAT good.  MVP AND SB MVP?  I won’t say he wouldn’t have, because, again, it’s make believe we’re talking about, but I don’t think he was the same QB.  His improvement wasn’t just a result of adding Diggs.  He put in the work and made himself better

 

 Mahomes won the super bowl in his third season. Josh's third season was 2020. I agree Josh was not the same QB in 18-19. But he was on the same level as Mahomes in his third year which was the year Mahomes won the super bowl. That's way I say yes, I could imagine Allen winning the Super Bowl and MVP in his third season if the roles were reversed. 

[NewEra]

36 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Any one who picks Allen over Mahomes is a homer.... I talked about thier situations.  Ifs and buts..  yadda yadda...  the trending of Allens career can suggest he is player you want in 21.  Third party voters had Allen as more valuable last year over Mahomes.  Yet Bills fans are stupid in believing in it?  I guess Mafia members had a heavy hand in the MVP vote than.  Allen made himself a top 5 qb against heavy resistance among the national media.  Finaly having a guy im taking that over anyone.

I picked allen over Mahomes......

 

I’d just like to know what case is closed with allen being 2nd in MVP and Mahomes 3rd?  

[NewEra]

11 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

At first glance I would agree. But when thinking about it I do see a legit path where Allen does win an MVP and Super Bowl within his first two years starting with the Chiefs as Mahomes did. Mahomes won his Super Bowl in his 3rd year. Allen's 3rd year was his breakout season. Talent wise we know the skill level would have been there for Allen. So then the question is how is the rest of the team around him? Assuming all is the same it seems more likely than not that Allen and the Chiefs would be strong candidates for a Super Bowl run.

 

37 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

 Mahomes won the super bowl in his third season. Josh's third season was 2020. I agree Josh was not the same QB in 18-19. But he was on the same level as Mahomes in his third year which was the year Mahomes won the super bowl. That's way I say yes, I could imagine Allen winning the Super Bowl and MVP in his third season if the roles were reversed. 

Gotcha.  I saw what you were saying as Allen could’ve won MVP, SB and SB mvp by the end of his 2nd year.....which would’ve been 2019. 
 

I’m now assuming that you’re saying he could’ve won them after the 2020 season, if allen redshirted year 1 and his 2nd year as a starter would’ve been 2020.  
 

He was good enough in 2020 to win MVP in 2020....but if he was the QB behind KCs OL, playing Tampa, he wouldn’t have stood a chance to win SB and Sb mvp.  Not to mention that I don’t think he was good enough in 2019 to beat that niner D