Fairburn would swap Allen for Mahomes. Would you?

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yup, nicely put. I like the Big Ben point, though obviously I hope you're underestimating. Thoughtful.

 

And that's how I'd order them also, Mahomes and then Allen. Nearly everyone, really, the exceptions being largely Bills fans. If Rodgers were young again and playing the way he is now, I'd have to stop and think a bunch more, but he's not and Mahomes then Allen would be how most around the league would order this.

 

Saying that, I think it's reasonable to guess that Josh might have just as good a career if not better. But based on what we've seen, that's not how most would bet. 

Couple of thoughts about this:

 

Rodgers.  Rodgers has been amazing, but as we began to hear about five years ago and we continue to have confirmed, Rodgers is something of a jerk.   Apparently not all of his teammates like him.  In my mind, that gives Mahomes and Allen (both of whom are well-liked an edge over Rodgers.  

 

Ben.  I often say Allen will be something like Ben when he gets older.   Something like Ben, but better.   What I mean by that is that in his younger years, Ben was pretty mobile.   He didn't run like Allen, but he was at least a threat.  He'd do 100-200 yards a year.  As he got older, he stopped running very much.  Allen won't run in his later years either - something will have slowed him down.   But Ben has a remarkable ability to slide in the pocket, to slip tackles, and to shake off arm tackles, so he his able to buy time in the pocket much better than, say, Brady.   Ben can do that because he has good awareness, good feet, and most importantly, good size and strength.  Ben also has the arm strength to make a lot of quick and accurate throws late.   Allen already has shown all of that.  I think when Allen is in his thirties he will have an edge over most QBs because he will be able to buy time in the pocket and deliver the ball with that great arm of his.   

 

And to bring that back to the Mahomes discussion, I think that will make Allen better than Mahomes 10 years from now.   Allen's height and size will give him an advantage over Mahomes when they're both forced to stay in the pocket more in their later years.  Being big has extended Ben's career, and it was a serious advantage for Peyton, too.  Russell Wilson continues to be able to scramble and be effective, but I don't think either Allen or Mahomes has the kind of scrambling ability that has allowed Wilson to do it effectively at age 32.  And I think Wilson's scrambling days are numbered. 

 

And just because I think a mid-30s Allen will have some of the good characteristics of a mid-30s Roethlisberger doesn't mean that the Bills will look like the Steelers and not the Patriots.   There's no reason to believe that the whole organization will look like the Steelers just because Allen may look like Ben.  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 5/28/2021 at 12:24 AM, NewEra said:

 He has improved leaps and bounds.  That Josh allen wouldn’t have won an mvp and a super bowl in his first 2 years of he were on the chiefs.  My opinion of course.  
 

 

At first glance I would agree. But when thinking about it I do see a legit path where Allen does win an MVP and Super Bowl within his first two years starting with the Chiefs as Mahomes did. Mahomes won his Super Bowl in his 3rd year. Allen's 3rd year was his breakout season. Talent wise we know the skill level would have been there for Allen. So then the question is how is the rest of the team around him? Assuming all is the same it seems more likely than not that Allen and the Chiefs would be strong candidates for a Super Bowl run.

[Shaw66]

18 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Not that it matters what others around the league think, but I think you are overestimating how those around the league, especially if we are talking fans, feel about Allen. Some would have him #2 but I don't think he would be in the majority. Heck, an equal amount would probably have guys like Burrow and Herbert ahead of Allen if they are looking at it in terms of who would you take for the future. I think when it comes to Allen I think many around the league greatly underrated him off his first two seasons and it is making it hard for them to truly come around to him. Many looked at his first year starting as a disaster when part of the reality was that he put up one of the most dominant 6 game stretches the NFL had ever seen from a QB when he came back from his injury. And that is not to mention the disaster of a supporting cast he had at the skill positions.

 

Now if we are talking general managers and some of the smarter analysts out there like Chris Simms I would expect Allen to be #2 in the majority of those conversations.

Right.  The fans might be all over the place, and some would take Burrow or Herbert second.  Some would take Trevor Lawrence.  But the GMs know better.  The difference between Allen and everyone else, except Mahomes, is that Allen has consistently done things on the field that no one else does.   Herbert looked like a very good QB, maybe even excellent.   You could say that about Burrow, too.   Herbert made some outstanding throws, throws like Allen and no one else makes.   But only Mahomes and Allen to date have shown packages of skills that the experts see as transcendent.  Allen makes power throws all over the field that no one else can - bullets that pass through tight, closing windows.  Mahomes is nearly as good at it, maybe better on the shorter throws.   Mahomes is amazingly elusive, Allen shakes off big tacklers like very few QBs ever have.  Both make big plays when all seems helpless, like on third and 22.  

 

So, sure, some fan may think Burrow will be better, or Herbert, and that fan may even turn out to be correct.  However, based on what we've seen from the field, it's hard at this time to see any reason to project anyone to be better than Mahomes and Allen.  

 

And, since that's my opinion about the two and the rest, I continue to find it historically amazing that the Bills traded the pick for Mahomes and then drafted Allen the following year.   

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

19 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I never said only a homer would take Allen over Mahomes. I said I see the argument. What I consider homerish is the belief that it is more likely than not that Allen outperforms Mahomes. That to me is people projecting Mahomes gets worse and I see no justification for that argument. 

 

I would say there is zero percent chance either QB gets worst in their self ability to actually be a good QB. In fact, both should get better over the immediate years to come. But as we know, the NFL is the ultimate team sport. A QB's stats and win/loss record are heavily dependent on supporting cast. So any assumed probabilities of  a QB becoming "worse" or "better" should be looked at through that lens. 

 

Average out Mahomes supporting cast over his first three years starting. It would grade out extremely high. Then say, okay, is it more likely, less likely or about likely the next 5 years that his supporting cast grades the same, worse or higher. Then do the same for Allen over his first three years starting. IMO, that is the only way to really make a somewhat educated guess on projections for either player. But again, I expect both QB's simply as an individual player to be better over the next 5 years.

4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

And, since that's my opinion about the two and the rest, I continue to find it historically amazing that the Bills traded the pick for Mahomes and then drafted Allen the following year.   

 

Haha. Good point. What luck. It's like we could have had Jordan but hey it's okay we drafted Lebron the next year.

[NewEra]

11 hours ago, Mat68 said:

Buffalo drafts Mahomes.  He wins the Superbowl in Buffalo? Yes, Mahomes has more accelades and was better sooner.  Last year Allen finished ahead of Mahomes in MVP.  Not crazy to think Allen does it again.  Now 2 guys entering 21 are in similar positions.  Because of 18 and 19 you want Mahomes?  Fine.  Call me a homer for liking Allen thats fine.  It also doeant mean im wrong either.

Make believe.  And we have no idea what he accomplishes in Buffalo.  
 

I’m a homer.  I like allen too.  I’d take allen over Mahomes.....my issue with this is that we are using make believe scenarios to prove a point. You can’t prove a point with make believe.
 

 

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Seems we will never agree so maybe this will be my last post on the matter. The difference between the two over the entire regular season is miniscule. It's truly splitting hairs. Obviously many thought the same. Allen being 2nd in MVP voting, and the two splitting the vote for 2nd team all-pro. You may not see the evidence but certainly some did in 2020.

 

I don't understand the head to head argument. They're not playing each other on the field. Tannehill absolutely smoked the Bills last season the week before in a blow out victory. But that says nothing to Tannehill being on the same level as Allen. And had the Bills drawn the Titans instead of the Ravens or Colts in the playoffs who knows maybe the Titans prevail again. Titans were actually the team i feared most as a possible round 1 or 2 match up because their offense is so well rounded and Tannehill can make enough plays with is legs as well to really break the back of a defense.

 

As Zerovoltz has pointed out to us numerous times, when it comes to Bills vs. Chiefs it's simply a bad match up of our offensive strength against their defensive strength. Our WR centric offense and lack of a dominant running game plays directly into the Chiefs defensive strength. 

It’s about stepping your game up in the biggest games of the year.  There is obviously a Josh Vs Pat thing going on.  There was all season.  There was prior to the season.  The KC game during the regular season was our biggest regular season game of the year.  Josh didn’t play very well.  Mahomes was ok that game, but that’s because our D let them run for 10ypc in order to take away Mahomes.  The AFCCG was the biggest game of Josh’s career.  He didn’t play very well.  And to Zero’s point about being a bad matchup.....Josh had guy running wide open underneath all game, but he didn’t take the gimmes. That’s on him. Guys were open short. Meanwhile, Mahomes was dropping dimes all over the field.  Coming up BIG in big games matter.  In your opinion, it doesn’t.......it does to me. Josh was 0-2 in the 2 biggest games of the year (reg season and playoffs) and didn’t play well.  People are using Mahomes’ play in the SB as a reason why Josh is as good if not better.....yet Josh’s performance in the AFCCG is off limits?  Makes no sense

2 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

At first glance I would agree. But when thinking about it I do see a legit path where Allen does win an MVP and Super Bowl within his first two years starting with the Chiefs as Mahomes did. Mahomes won his Super Bowl in his 3rd year. Allen's 3rd year was his breakout season. Talent wise we know the skill level would have been there for Allen. So then the question is how is the rest of the team around him? Assuming all is the same it seems more likely than not that Allen and the Chiefs would be strong candidates for a Super Bowl run.

Josh wasn’t the same QB in 18-19.  He just wasn’t.  He wasn’t as accurate.  He was the worst deep ball thrower in the nfl in 2019.  The worst.  He got with Palmer, hooked himself up to machine, found out what the problems were and he fixed them.  He changed his arm angle dramatically. 
 

you can think w/e you want, but 2019 JA was not THAT good.  His improvement wasn’t just a result of adding Diggs.  He put in the work and made himself better

Edited May 29, 2021 by NewEra

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

At first glance I would agree. But when thinking about it I do see a legit path where Allen does win an MVP and Super Bowl within his first two years starting with the Chiefs as Mahomes did. Mahomes won his Super Bowl in his 3rd year. Allen's 3rd year was his breakout season. Talent wise we know the skill level would have been there for Allen. So then the question is how is the rest of the team around him? Assuming all is the same it seems more likely than not that Allen and the Chiefs would be strong candidates for a Super Bowl run.

Josh wasn’t the same QB in 18-19.  He just wasn’t.  He wasn’t as accurate.  He was the worst deep ball thrower in the nfl in 2019.  The worst.  He got with Palmer, hooked himself up to machine, found out what the problems were and he fixed them.  He changes his arm angle dramatically. 
 

you can think w/e you want, but 2019 JA was not THAT good.  MVP AND SB MVP?  I won’t say he wouldn’t have, because, again, it’s make believe we’re talking about, but I don’t think he was the same QB.  His improvement wasn’t just a result of adding Diggs.  He put in the work and made himself better

Edited May 29, 2021 by NewEra

[Mat68]

Call it make believe call it what you wish.  If you are comparing Mahomes and Allen why cant you compare the players around them aswell?  Yes, Mahomes came out of the gates flying.  It took Allen sometime.  I believe the situation Allen played in over his career contributed to his production and early on lack there of.  

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

At first glance I would agree. But when thinking about it I do see a legit path where Allen does win an MVP and Super Bowl within his first two years starting with the Chiefs as Mahomes did. Mahomes won his Super Bowl in his 3rd year. Allen's 3rd year was his breakout season. Talent wise we know the skill level would have been there for Allen. So then the question is how is the rest of the team around him? Assuming all is the same it seems more likely than not that Allen and the Chiefs would be strong candidates for a Super Bowl run.

 

To build off this... by year 3 on their respective teams one won a league MVP and a Super Bowl and the other came in 2nd in league MVP voting and made it to a conference championship game.

 

Even in a vacuum--without considering the respective circumstances I keep coming back to--those 2 QBs aren't far apart.

[NewEra]

18 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Call it make believe call it what you wish.  If you are comparing Mahomes and Allen why cant you compare the players around them aswell?  Yes, Mahomes came out of the gates flying.  It took Allen sometime.  I believe the situation Allen played in over his career contributed to his production and early on lack there of.  

You can do whatever you like.  All time great players usually play with great players and they usually make one another better.  That’s sports.  Using that as an angle to bring an athlete down a rung in order to prop another athlete up doesn’t make sense to me.....especially when that player is a record setting QB.  How many times have you said “Andre Reed would’ve been the best WR ever if the niners drafted him instead of the Bills”?  Or “Jerry Rice was a product of the talent and coaching he was drafted into”..... you don’t. While Jerry rice may not have been the GOAT if he was drafted by the Jets.....he wasn’t.  He IS the GOAT.....and NO ONE talks about “what if”.  Why?  Because it’s make believe nonsense and no one can make an accurate prediction of what would’ve happened.  We don’t know.  What we know happened.....is the only thing that matters. 
 

I agree.....allen would’ve been better in 18-19 if he had the same team surrounding him as he did in 20.  I also know that he was a much improved thrower of the football in 20 than he was in 18-19. He wasn’t just the same QB that had a better supporting cast.  He was more accurate, deliberate, had better touch, threw a much better deep ball, threw from every angle and platform and greatly improved his eye manipulation of the defense.  

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Now if we are talking general managers and some of the smarter analysts out there like Chris Simms I would expect Allen to be #2 in the majority of those conversations.

 

I've heard Greg Cossell in more than one interview call Josh Allen the most talented QB in the NFL, 2021 draft picks like Lawrence included.

 

One of those was on The Herd and I think another was on One Bills Lite with Chris Brown and Steve Tasker.

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

To build off this... by year 3 on their respective teams one won a league MVP and a Super Bowl and the other came in 2nd in league MVP voting and made it to a conference championship game.

 

Even in a vacuum--without considering the respective circumstances I keep coming back to--those 2 QBs aren't far apart.

Who is saying that they are far apart?  I don’t think anyone has said that.  Those you are debating with are saying that Mahomes is better and based on accomplishments and play, anyone saying that Allen is currently better is a homer that isn’t living in reality.  
 

Allen may be the better QB in 2021 if he continues to improve....but as you’ve said, Mahomes is the better QB as of today.  

3 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I've heard Greg Cossell in more than one interview call Josh Allen the most talented QB in the NFL, 2021 draft picks like Lawrence included.

 

One of those was on The Herd and I think another was on One Bills Lite with Chris Brown and Steve Tasker.

While I wanted Rosen pre draft, I always maintained that Allen has the highest upside of any QB I’ve ever seen.  Size, arm, mobility, IQ, grit and determination.  He’s the total package. He just needed to make smarter decisions and perfect his technique.  

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

It’s about stepping your game up in the biggest games of the year.  There is obviously a Josh Vs Pat thing going on.  There was all season.  There was prior to the season.  The KC game during the regular season was our biggest regular season game of the year.  Josh didn’t play very well.  Mahomes was ok that game, but that’s because our D let them run for 10ypc in order to take away Mahomes.  The AFCCG was the biggest game of Josh’s career.  He didn’t play very well.  And to Zero’s point about being a bad matchup.....Josh had guy running wide open underneath all game, but he didn’t take the gimmes. That’s on him. Guys were open short. Meanwhile, Mahomes was dropping dimes all over the field.  Coming up BIG in big games matter.  In your opinion, it doesn’t.......it does to me. Josh was 0-2 in the 2 biggest games of the year (reg season and playoffs) and didn’t play well.  People are using Mahomes’ play in the SB as a reason why Josh is as good if not better.....yet Josh’s performance in the AFCCG is off limits?  Makes no sense

 

I have Gamepass and All-22 access... can you please direct our attention to the myriad of plays with guys running open and Josh missing them?

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I have Gamepass and All-22 access... can you please direct our attention to the myriad of plays with guys running open and Josh missing them?

So do I.  Sorry, but I don’t have time to get on my computer and rewatch the entire game.  I watched several breakdowns of the game in which it was pointed out.  Look them up, it’ll be quicker than watching the entire game

 

edit:  can you direct me to the myriad of plays in which there wasn’t anyone open?

Edited May 29, 2021 by NewEra

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

Josh wasn’t the same QB in 18-19.  He just wasn’t.  He wasn’t as accurate.  He was the worst deep ball thrower in the nfl in 2019.  The worst.  He got with Palmer, hooked himself up to machine, found out what the problems were and he fixed them.  He changes his arm angle dramatically. 
 

you can think w/e you want, but 2019 JA was not THAT good.  MVP AND SB MVP?  I won’t say he wouldn’t have, because, again, it’s make believe we’re talking about, but I don’t think he was the same QB.  His improvement wasn’t just a result of adding Diggs.  He put in the work and made himself better

 

He did, but having Diggs in 2019 wouldn't have hurt. And I refer us back to Alex Smith's interview about Andy Reid. If Josh is in KC and gets that redshirt year like Mahomes maybe his mechanics are fixed by the time he starts a full season (2nd year in the NFL) as opposed to his 3rd year in the NFL.

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

He did, but having Diggs in 2019 wouldn't have hurt. And I refer us back to Alex Smith's interview about Andy Reid. If Josh is in KC and gets that redshirt year like Mahomes maybe his mechanics are fixed by the time he starts a full season (2nd year in the NFL) as opposed to his 3rd year in the NFL.

Yeah........maybe. Maybe not.  Maybe.  Maybe not.  Maybe, maybe not.  That’s what this thread has turned into.  I prefer to talk about what we know.....as opposed to saying maybe.....maybe not

[transplantbillsfan]

12 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Who is saying that they are far apart?  I don’t think anyone has said that.  Those you are debating with are saying that Mahomes is better and based on accomplishments and play, anyone saying that Allen is currently better is a homer that isn’t living in reality.  

 

Who's arguing that Allen is better? Some of us are arguing Allen will be better, but I haven't seen a single person say that at this moment Allen is better.

[transplantbillsfan]

9 minutes ago, NewEra said:

So do I.  Sorry, but I don’t have time to get on my computer and rewatch the entire game.  I watched several breakdowns of the game in which it was pointed out.  Look them up, it’ll be quicker than watching the entire game

 

edit:  can you direct me to the myriad of plays in which there wasn’t anyone open?

 

Now you're being disingenuous. You made the initial accusation, not me. Most people watching that game saw Allen running for his life as an entirely and pretty seriously injured WR corps struggled to get open against a physical secondary.

 

So, you made the claim... where are all these plays?

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

you can think w/e you want, but 2019 JA was not THAT good.  His improvement wasn’t just a result of adding Diggs.  He put in the work and made himself better

 

I thought end of 2019 Allen was actually very good, and the offense's mediocrity was much more on his supporting cast than Allen himself. The step he took from 2019 to 2020 was magnified by the addition of a true #1 WR. Everyone talks about his dumb lateral in the Houston wildcard game. We were only in that game to begin with because of Allen's play. There isn't a QB in the league that could be successful with John Brown and Duke Williams as their top 2 WRs.

[transplantbillsfan]

6 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Yeah........maybe. Maybe not.  Maybe.  Maybe not.  Maybe, maybe not.  That’s what this thread has turned into.  I prefer to talk about what we know.....as opposed to saying maybe.....maybe not

 

This thread is a question of which QB you want moving forward, not which QB you would have wanted in their first 3 years.

 

For that reason, it's important to consider the very different circumstances of each player... because the whole premise is the idea of giving each guy the other guy's circumstances moving forward.

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I thought end of 2019 Allen was actually very good, and the offense's mediocrity was much more on his supporting cast than Allen himself. The step he took from 2019 to 2020 was magnified by the addition of a true #1 WR. Everyone talks about his dumb lateral in the Houston wildcard game. We were only in that game to begin with because of Allen's play. There isn't a QB in the league that could be successful with John Brown and Duke Williams as their top 2 WRs.

 

If only Duke Williams came down with that dime of a TD pass from Allen at the end of the 1st half.