Fairburn would swap Allen for Mahomes. Would you?

[GunnerBill]

58 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Were you not saying earlier in the season that Allen was playing just as well as Mahomes? Did the playoffs make you change your mind back?

 

No. He did play as well as Mahomes in 2020. That is not the same thing as believing he is on course to have a better career than a guy who has had the best start to his NFL career of any Quarterback ever and by a long way. That is my point. I think Mahomes is better than generationally good. It is gonna take more than 1 season of any Quarterback playing at that level for me to say "okay it is likely this guy is even better." It is possible Allen has a better career. But at this point I still think it is more likely Mahomes ends up the best to ever do it. 

13 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Gunner -  If you explained your opinion in more detail, I apologize - either I don't recall it or I didn't see.   What I'm curious about is that it's very difficult to say which QB was better in 2020.  Allen was slightly behind Mahomes in QBR and passer rating, Allen was the better runner.  

 

So, what is it that makes you so sure, because you seem really certain about this, that Mahomes will have the better career by the time they both hang em up?   Yes, Mahomes has a ring.  But Mahomes also was as bad or worse than Allen in his 2020 playoff loss.   

 

Again, I'm really not arguing.  I love Mahomes.  I just think that if 2020 was a push, it just isn't so clear that Mahomes will be better, as you seem to think it is.   Especially when we consider that Mahomes has an additional year's experience at the pro level, and he played in a more competitive college environment.    In terms of being truly seasoned pros, Allen is still a year behind Mahomes.   So, I don't get why you think it's so clear.  

 

 

 

Because to me you cannot discount Mahomes first two years. It is simply illogical to do that. The most accurate predictor of future performance is past performance. When a guy had played at that level for 3 years straight, been a top 3 Quarterback 3 years in a row, made three consecutive AFCCGs and 2 Superbowls, then to say another guy is more likely than not to pass him based on one year where they were pretty close to equal is illogical. Again, it is possible. To say it is impossible for Josh to be better is also illogical based on his improvement curve but one situation (Josh ending up the better player) still requires something to change and the other (Pat ending up the better player) is the case even if the status quo persists. Believing a change is more likely than the thing you have a greater body of evidence to support is the definition of illogical. It is hope and desire at that point. 

 

Put it this way... if Josh and Pat are pretty much equal every year of their careers from here on in then Mahomes will still have been the better QB over his career. So Josh has to go again to surpass Mahomes. That isn't just about winning Championships it is about everything. It is just not logical to throw Mahomes's first two years as a starter out. 

Edited May 27, 2021 by GunnerBill

[transplantbillsfan]

32 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Personal attacks? You either intentionally or otherwise missed my CLEARLY stated point (Kelce’s stats improved with Mahomes). I gave you the benefit of the doubt, that it was a failure of reading comprehension. I won’t waste my time defending things I never said nor implied.

 

The conversation has been about what Mahomes had in Kansas City was already established and Elite.

 

Kelce was already an Elite Tight End before Mahomes started a game.  You know precisely what our discussion has been, yet you pivoted claiming that "Kelce has Mahomes to thank" and then brought his 3 previous years in rather than the most recent 2--where he averaged 84 receptions, nearly 1,100 yards, 6 TDs and 9 yards per Target--because that extra year skews his numbers a little down for you, despite the fact that even adding that year in Kelce still averaged 1,000 yards and 6 TDs a year.

 

Kelce was an Elite Tight End already and Mahomes clearly benefitted from that.  As another poster said... much the same way that Diggs was already an Elite WR before he came over to Buffalo.

 

Receivers and QBs benefitted.

 

The point is that Mahomes has been extremely reliant on his Elite Tight End throughout his entire career and you're insinuating that Mahomes would somehow make Knox better.  @HappyDays aptly brought up Kelvin Benjamin because of that... and it was a good comparison based on the silly argument you made that it was Allen who was holding Knox back somehow, yet Benjamin caught more than 10 times more passes with Allen for more than 10 times more yards.

 

Soooo... what are you going to say next????  "Well obviously Benjamin caught fewer balls in Kansas City because there were better weapons so he didn't see the field as much"

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The conversation has been about what Mahomes had in Kansas City was already established and Elite.

 

Kelce was already an Elite Tight End before Mahomes started a game.  You know precisely what our discussion has been, yet you pivoted claiming that "Kelce has Mahomes to thank" and then brought his 3 previous years in rather than the most recent 2--where he averaged 84 receptions, nearly 1,100 yards, 6 TDs and 9 yards per Target--because that extra year skews his numbers a little down for you, despite the fact that even adding that year in Kelce still averaged 1,000 yards and 6 TDs a year.

 

Kelce was an Elite Tight End already and Mahomes clearly benefitted from that.  As another poster said... much the same way that Diggs was already an Elite WR before he came over to Buffalo.

 

Receivers and QBs benefitted.

 

The point is that Mahomes has been extremely reliant on his Elite Tight End throughout his entire career and you're insinuating that Mahomes would somehow make Knox better.  @HappyDays aptly brought up Kelvin Benjamin because of that... and it was a good comparison based on the silly argument you made that it was Allen who was holding Knox back somehow, yet Benjamin caught more than 10 times more passes with Allen for more than 10 times more yards.

 

Soooo... what are you going to say next????  "Well obviously Benjamin caught fewer balls in Kansas City because there were better weapons so he didn't see the field as much"

I brought in the last 3 years because he’s played with Mahomes for 3 years. Why are you doing this to yourself?

[Shaw66]

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No. He did play as well as Mahomes in 2020. That is not the same thing as believing he is on course to have a better career than a guy who has had the best start to his NFL career of any Quarterback ever and by a long way. That is my point. I think Mahomes is better than generationally good. It is gonna take more than 1 season of any Quarterback playing at that level for me to say "okay it is likely this guy is even better." It is possible Allen has a better career. But at this point I still think it is more likely Mahomes ends up the best to ever do it. 

 

Because to me you cannot discount Mahomes first two years. It is simply illogical to do that. The most accurate predictor of future performance is past performance. When a guy had played at that level for 3 years straight, been a top 3 Quarterback 3 years in a row, made three consecutive AFCCGs and 2 Superbowls, then to say another guy is more likely than not to pass him based on one year where they were pretty close to equal is illogical. Again, it is possible. To say it is impossible for Josh to be better is also illogical based on his improvement curve but one situation (Josh ending up the better player) still requires something to change and the other (Pat ending up the better player) is the case even if the status quo persists. Believing a change is more likely than the thing you have a greater body of evidence to support is the definition of illogical. It is hope and desire at that point. 

 

Put it this way... if Josh and Pat are pretty much equal every year of their careers from here on in then Mahomes will still have been the better QB over his career. So Josh has to go again to surpass Mahomes. That isn't just about winning Championships it is about everything. It is just not logical to throw Mahomes's first two years as a starter out. 

Thanks.   Now I get it, but I just don't buy it.   We got off the subject about a bit - the question wasn't who will have the better career, the question was today, which QB would you rather have for your team?   You're right, if they play evenly from here on out, Mahomes will have had the better career, because Mahomes first two years playing were much better than Allen's first two years.   On the other hand, Allen's first year in the league was much, much better than Mahomes first year, because Mahomes didn't even play.   But all of that is neither here nor there.

 

You're saying that on a purely statistical basis, a guy who's been successful all three years he's played in the league is statistically more likely to be successful more often in the future than a guy who's been successful in only one of three years.   On a purely statistical basis, that isn't true; that's just a more sophisticated statement of the coin tossing problem.    Tossing three heads in a row doesn't make you more likely to toss heads the fourth time than if I throw two tails and then a heads.   So your point isn't true in terms of pure statistics.  

 

Yes, you say, but I'm not basing it pure statistics; these guys aren't coins, they're football players, and one guy has played better than the other.   That's true; I'll give you that.   But they play a position where the best often get much better from year to year in their early years, and in the most recent year, the two were a push.   So, let's take 2021.   Who's more likely to have the best year?   Well, I suppose you might say, one might say, a better way to look at the question differently - who's more likely to have the worst year?   You'd say Allen, and I think I would agree, because it's not very likely that all of a sudden Mahomes is going to turn into Colt McCoy.  That is, Mahomes seems less likely to regress to the mean.  As I said, I think I would agree with that.   (Put another way, it's more likely that in March 2022, people will be asking "What happened to Allen" than "What happened to Mahomes.")

 

But that's only looking at part of the equation.   I'd take Allen, because I think he's more likely to be good on the back end of his career, because he will be better able to play out of the pocket as they both lose mobility.  I'd take Allen because he's less likely to have arm trouble, because of his physique.   I'd take Allen because sooner or later Mahomes won't have an offensive genius creating and calling the offense.  

 

So, what's really going on here is you're basing your argument on what Mahomes has done, and I'm basing mine on what I believe Allen will do.  It's all absurdly speculative.  

 

Thanks for chatting about it.  

 

I'm ready for some real football. 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks.   Now I get it, but I just don't buy it.   We got off the subject about a bit - the question wasn't who will have the better career, the question was today, which QB would you rather have for your team?   You're right, if they play evenly from here on out, Mahomes will have had the better career, because Mahomes first two years playing were much better than Allen's first two years.   On the other hand, Allen's first year in the league was much, much better than Mahomes first year, because Mahomes didn't even play.   But all of that is neither here nor there.

 

You're saying that on a purely statistical basis, a guy who's been successful all three years he's played in the league is statistically more likely to be successful more often in the future than a guy who's been successful in only one of three years.   On a purely statistical basis, that isn't true; that's just a more sophisticated statement of the coin tossing problem.    Tossing three heads in a row doesn't make you more likely to toss heads the fourth time than if I throw two tails and then a heads.   So your point isn't true in terms of pure statistics.  

 

Yes, you say, but I'm not basing it pure statistics; these guys aren't coins, they're football players, and one guy has played better than the other.   That's true; I'll give you that.   But they play a position where the best often get much better from year to year in their early years, and in the most recent year, the two were a push.   So, let's take 2021.   Who's more likely to have the best year?   Well, I suppose you might say, one might say, a better way to look at the question differently - who's more likely to have the worst year?   You'd say Allen, and I think I would agree, because it's not very likely that all of a sudden Mahomes is going to turn into Colt McCoy.  That is, Mahomes seems less likely to regress to the mean.  As I said, I think I would agree with that.   (Put another way, it's more likely that in March 2022, people will be asking "What happened to Allen" than "What happened to Mahomes.")

 

But that's only looking at part of the equation.   I'd take Allen, because I think he's more likely to be good on the back end of his career, because he will be better able to play out of the pocket as they both lose mobility.  I'd take Allen because he's less likely to have arm trouble, because of his physique.   I'd take Allen because sooner or later Mahomes won't have an offensive genius creating and calling the offense.  

 

So, what's really going on here is you're basing your argument on what Mahomes has done, and I'm basing mine on what I believe Allen will do.  It's all absurdly speculative.  

 

Thanks for chatting about it.  

 

I'm ready for some real football. 

 

I am not basing it on stats. I object to that assertion. I am basing it on football. I have never seen a Quarterback be as consistently excellent as Patrick Mahomes out of the box. He was pretty much the best Quarterback in the league the moment he stepped on the field. I see absolutely zero reason to suspect he slows down. I totally reject your "he needs Andy Reid" assertion. So in order to pass him Josh needs to continue on his phenomenal upward curve. Possible? Yes. But at some point the progression likely levels off (which is no bad thing because levelling off at last year's standard means being an elite Quarterback) but it isn't enough to surpass Mahomes.

[97bills]

On 5/23/2021 at 2:47 PM, TBBills said:

Nope, Josh is perfect for the Bills.

 

Mahomes and Andy fit perfectly together and I don't know if he would have the same success here without his supporting cast. 

You said it perfectly 

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

We all saw what happened to John Brown and Cole Beasley with Allen compared to their ex-QB’s. As a general rule, a better QB =‘s better numbers for pass-catchers. You are ignoring 20+ years of data if you believe otherwise for a few outliers.

 

Of course, the QB matters. I just don't know what evidence we have from last year that Mahomes is measurably better than Allen as far as pushing his supporting cast to a higher level.

 

Again, Allen had 4,977 yards to Mahomes' 5,048 yards; 46 TDs to Mahomes' 40 TDs; 107.2 passer rating to Mahomes' 108.2 passer rating.

 

Allen did all this with what I believe to be a slightly less talented offensive supporting cast and a substantially worse play caller (do you disagree with these statements?).

 

Even if we assume their surrounding players and play calling are exactly equal, how do you look at two players with similar supporting casts and similar stats and make the argument that one is far and away better than the other and only a homer could believe otherwise? Gunner's argument looks at their entire career so far which I guess is fair, but this is also the first year that Allen had a supporting cast anywhere close to what Mahomes has had since day one and he immediately played at an equivalent level.

 

I think if a totally objective observer with no prior knowledge of the players looked at the situations and career stats year over year, they would probably conclude Allen and Mahomes are currently at an equal level, but gun to his head he'd take the player that had been doing it for longer which of course is Mahomes. And that's reasonable. But it's also perfectly reasonable to say you'll take the player with the clear upward trajectory year over year considering that trajectory has already landed him at Mahomes' level and very well could continue upwards. It's a matter of choosing the safe pick or taking the riskier upside player. Either choice is fine and naturally Bills fans are going to default to the player on our team - it isn't just homer rationale.

Edited May 27, 2021 by HappyDays

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Of course, the QB matters. I just don't know what evidence we have from last year that Mahomes is measurably better than Allen as far as pushing his supporting cast to a higher level.

 

Again, Allen had 4,977 yards to Mahomes' 5,048 yards; 46 TDs to Mahomes' 40 TDs; 107.2 passer rating to Mahomes' 108.2 passer rating.

 

Allen did all this with what I believe to be a slightly less talented offensive supporting cast and a substantially worse play caller (do you disagree with these statements?).

 

Even if we assume their surrounding players and play calling are exactly equal, how do you look at two players with similar supporting casts and similar stats and make the argument that one is far and away better than the other and only a homer could believe otherwise? Gunner's argument looks at their entire career so far which I guess is fair, but this is also the first year that Allen had a supporting cast anywhere close to what Mahomes has had since day one and he immediately played at an equivalent level.

 

I think if a totally objective observer with no prior knowledge of the players looked at the situations and career stats year over year, they would probably conclude Allen and Mahomes are currently at an equal level, but gun to his head he'd take the player that had been doing it for longer which of course is Mahomes. And that's reasonable. But it's also perfectly reasonable to say you'll take the player with the clear upward trajectory year over year considering that trajectory has already landed him at Mahomes' level and very well could continue upwards. It's a matter of choosing the safe pick or taking the riskier upside player. Either choice is fine and naturally Bills fans are going to default to the player on our team - it isn't just homer rationale.

Substantially worse playcaller?

 

Absolutely disagree. Reid is a great coach. Daboll isn’t as good. But you know what, Daboll OCed the #2 offense in football last year. And he looks better every year his QB plays better because execution has been this teams’ #1 problem since he was hired.

 

Do you know why Andy Reid has been so much better in KC? It’s because his QB’s are better. 
 

Your hypothetical is exactly right. Objectively, you’d take Mahomes. If Josh is your boy, you want to take your boy. 
 

I’ve said this for like 15 pages now.

 

If you agree one choice is objectively the superior pick, but someone might take someone else because he plays for the Bills, that’s definitely a bias. Call it homer, call it whatever you want.

 

Hilariously enough, if I was the Bills GM I don’t know if I could make that trade if it was offered. I love Josh. But I can admit that’s not me being objective. That’s all.

Edited May 28, 2021 by FireChans

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not basing it on stats. I object to that assertion. I am basing it on football. I have never seen a Quarterback be as consistently excellent as Patrick Mahomes out of the box. He was pretty much the best Quarterback in the league the moment he stepped on the field. I see absolutely zero reason to suspect he slows down. I totally reject your "he needs Andy Reid" assertion. So in order to pass him Josh needs to continue on his phenomenal upward curve. Possible? Yes. But at some point the progression likely levels off (which is no bad thing because levelling off at last year's standard means being an elite Quarterback) but it isn't enough to surpass Mahomes.

Fair enough.  "I am basing it on football. I have never seen a Quarterback be as consistently excellent as Patrick Mahomes out of the box."  That's a reason I can live with, and seeing it, I recall that that's really what you said earlier.   He's just been so damn good, right from the start.   You're saying he's just a flat out different guy.   I can't argue with that. 

 

Someone posted somewhere the link to Alex Smith being interviewed by Colin Cowherd.  If you haven't seen it, take a look for it.  At some point toward the end, Cowherd asks Smith about Mahomes.  He said the moment he showed up in his rookie season, he was doing stuff that turned heads.  Still, Smith and thing others weren't sure he was for real.  Then he was on the scout team during the season, and he was throwing no look passes.   Still, they weren't sure.  Then the Chiefs had a meaningless final game, Smith sat and Mahomes played.  Smith says when they saw him on the field in a real game, they knew.  (And Smith knew he needed to find another place to play.)

 

[HappyDays]

18 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Absolutely disagree. Reid is a great coach. Daboll isn’t as good. But you know what, Daboll OCed the #2 offense in football last year. And he looks better every year his QB plays better because execution has been this teams’ #1 problem since he was hired.

 

Do you know why Andy Reid has been so much better in KC? It’s because his QB’s are better. 

 

Andy Reid is a future hall of fame play caller. Daboll is a pretty good OC. Come on man...

 

28 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Your hypothetical is exactly right. Objectively, you’d take Mahomes. If Josh is your boy, you want to take your boy. 
 

I’ve said this for like 15 pages now.

 

If you agree one choice is objectively the superior pick, but someone might take someone else because he plays for the Bills, that’s definitely a bias. Call it homer, call it whatever you want.

 

Read the last paragraph again. I said the main reason to take Mahomes is he has done it for longer. If you're basing it just on last year and betting on the upside then you pick Allen. We're talking in circles now. It seems that you agree Allen and Mahomes played at an equal level last year and that this is the first year Allen has had anywhere near Mahomes' supporting cast, so what else is there? If you agree with those two points you should agree that it is reasonable to pick Allen over Mahomes.

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Andy Reid is a future hall of fame play caller. Daboll is a pretty good OC. Come on man...

 

 

Read the last paragraph again. I said the main reason to take Mahomes is he has done it for longer. If you're basing it just on last year and betting on the upside then you pick Allen. We're talking in circles now. It seems that you agree Allen and Mahomes played at an equal level last year and that this is the first year Allen has had anywhere near Mahomes' supporting cast, so what else is there? If you agree with those two points you should agree that it is reasonable to pick Allen over Mahomes.

What else is there? What else is there? Carson Wentz played at an MVP level for a season once upon a time too. That’s an extreme example, but consistent greatness is the impossible mountain in the NFL.

One guy has been great for 3 years straight since he stepped on the field. He’s been GENERATIONAL. Another guy has been generational ONE SEASON.

 

It’s not reasonable to pick player #2 over player #1. It is objectively WRONG.

 

Its incredible to me that some of you truly fail to see what the rest of the NFL world has realized. Mahomes is really truly special. What he’s done is SPECIAL. He’s done things NO QBs have done before.

Edited May 28, 2021 by FireChans

[Doc]

Again, give Josh Mahomes' offensive players and coaches and then we can talk.  Mahomes' clearly are better and I doubt you'd find anyone who would say otherwise.

 

And Kelce's stats are better with Mahomes because Mahomes targets him more than Smith did.

Edited May 28, 2021 by Doc

[StHustle]

I'm certain we are the only team in the league with 75% of its fans wanting to keep their current QB over Mahomes...and that feels effin fantastic!

[NewEra]

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Gunner -  If you explained your opinion in more detail, I apologize - either I don't recall it or I didn't see.   What I'm curious about is that it's very difficult to say which QB was better in 2020.  Allen was slightly behind Mahomes in QBR and passer rating, Allen was the better runner.  

 

So, what is it that makes you so sure, because you seem really certain about this, that Mahomes will have the better career by the time they both hang em up?   Yes, Mahomes has a ring.  But Mahomes also was as bad or worse than Allen in his 2020 playoff loss.   

 

Again, I'm really not arguing.  I love Mahomes.  I just think that if 2020 was a push, it just isn't so clear that Mahomes will be better, as you seem to think it is.   Especially when we consider that Mahomes has an additional year's experience at the pro level, and he played in a more competitive college environment.    In terms of being truly seasoned pros, Allen is still a year behind Mahomes.   So, I don't get why you think it's so clear.  

 

 

With all due respect, what does this mean? It’s one game. The worst of his career.....playing with 5 backup OL.  How many backup OL did Josh have in the AFCCG?  Mahomes played behind a inferior OL vs a much better front 7.  Mahomes has already accomplished the 2 things that potential GOATs need to accomplish to “be in the conversation”.  He knocked both out in his first 2 years as a starter.  Josh has accomplished neither.  Sure, he might..... but he hasn’t.  As of now, talking about Josh in terms of being one of the greatest ever is pure speculation.  The only thing he’s won is our hearts.  Meanwhile, Mahomes is checking off the boxes that make one the GOAT.

Sorry guys, but this is the facts.  I love Josh as much as anyone here, but this talk.....after one amazing season, is premature.  Jumping the gun.  Sustained dominance. When Josh wins a SB, we can have this conversation for real.  All the talk about supporting cast is nonsense.  No one cares.  Ask Dan Marino

[Shaw66]

39 minutes ago, NewEra said:

With all due respect, what does this mean? It’s one game. The worst of his career.....playing with 5 backup OL.  How many backup OL did Josh have in the AFCCG?  Mahomes played behind a inferior OL vs a much better front 7.  Mahomes has already accomplished the 2 things that potential GOATs need to accomplish to “be in the conversation”.  He knocked both out in his first 2 years as a starter.  Josh has accomplished neither.  Sure, he might..... but he hasn’t.  As of now, talking about Josh in terms of being one of the greatest ever is pure speculation.  The only thing he’s won is our hearts.  Meanwhile, Mahomes is checking off the boxes that make one the GOAT.

Sorry guys, but this is the facts.  I love Josh as much as anyone here, but this talk.....after one amazing season, is premature.  Jumping the gun.  Sustained dominance. When Josh wins a SB, we can have this conversation for real.  All the talk about supporting cast is nonsense.  No one cares.  Ask Dan Marino

You've lost track of what the thread is about.   If anyone here is saying that Allen is better, today, than Mahomes, that's not me.   If I need a QB for one game, today, I'm taking Mahomes.   But that isn't the question.  The question is which guy would you rather have for the balance of their careers?   That's a different question than who's better today.   I think Allen will have the better career, for the reasons I've stated.  

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

Again, give Josh Mahomes' offensive players and coaches and then we can talk.  Mahomes' clearly are better and I doubt you'd find anyone who would say otherwise.

 

And Kelce's stats are better with Mahomes because Mahomes targets him more than Smith did.

That’s not the way things work.  Jerry rice is the best WR ever.  How many times have you heard someone say, take away Montana, young and Walsh and give them to any other great WR.  Randy Moss in that situation may very well have been the goat.  But he’s not.....and people don’t say it. That blanket statement means that there can’t be a goat or a “better than”, because no players are EVER on the same playing field with the same players and coaches.  You’re swaying that “we can’t talk” because they don’t have the same weapons.  No one has ever had the same weapons.  No one can ever talk.  No

[NewEra]

17 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

You've lost track of what the thread is about.   If anyone here is saying that Allen is better, today, than Mahomes, that's not me.   If I need a QB for one game, today, I'm taking Mahomes.   But that isn't the question.  The question is which guy would you rather have for the balance of their careers?   That's a different question than who's better today.   I think Allen will have the better career, for the reasons I've stated.  

No, I realize that that’s not what the thread is about.  I responded to a post that was discussing how can one project Mahomes to be better than allen?  It’s easy, Mahomes has already checked the 2 toughest boxes to check......in his first two years as a starter.  That right there is enough to project Mahomes as being the better QB.  His one really bad game as a pro, he was playing behind a JV OL vs a beastly front 7. There are clearly more reasons to back Mahomes being better long term than there are to back Josh.  Josh has his pros..... ive discussed them.  Those pros are the reason that I’d keep Josh.....but the odds are against him.  

[Doc]

6 minutes ago, NewEra said:

That’s not the way things work.  Jerry rice is the best WR ever.  How many times have you heard someone say, take away Montana, young and Walsh and give them to any other great WR.  Randy Moss in that situation may very well have been the goat.  But he’s not.....and people don’t say it. That blanket statement means that there can’t be a goat or a “better than”, because no players are EVER on the same playing field with the same players and coaches.  You’re swaying that “we can’t talk” because they don’t have the same weapons.  No one has ever had the same weapons.  No one can ever talk.  No

 

True, they can't play with the same supporting cast.  But that doesn't mean that one's supporting cast can't be (determined to be) better than another's.  Again if you were to ask people which OC they'd rather have, it would be Reid and it wouldn't be close (you'd probably get a lot of "who is the Bills' OC/Brian Daboll?").  If you were to ask if they'd rather have Kelce, Hill, Watkins and Hardiman or Diggs, Beasley, Brown and Davis, they'd say the former.  RBs?  OL (prior to the last quarter of the AFCCG and especially now)?  You get the point.

 

And talk of being the GOAT is premature with Mahomes.  He still has a long way to go just to be considered a HOF'er.  Josh doesn't even enter into the conversation after just 1 season.

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No. He did play as well as Mahomes in 2020. That is not the same thing as believing he is on course to have a better career than a guy who has had the best start to his NFL career of any Quarterback ever and by a long way. That is my point. I think Mahomes is better than generationally good. It is gonna take more than 1 season of any Quarterback playing at that level for me to say "okay it is likely this guy is even better." It is possible Allen has a better career. But at this point I still think it is more likely Mahomes ends up the best to ever do it. 

 

Because to me you cannot discount Mahomes first two years. It is simply illogical to do that. The most accurate predictor of future performance is past performance. When a guy had played at that level for 3 years straight, been a top 3 Quarterback 3 years in a row, made three consecutive AFCCGs and 2 Superbowls, then to say another guy is more likely than not to pass him based on one year where they were pretty close to equal is illogical. Again, it is possible. To say it is impossible for Josh to be better is also illogical based on his improvement curve but one situation (Josh ending up the better player) still requires something to change and the other (Pat ending up the better player) is the case even if the status quo persists. Believing a change is more likely than the thing you have a greater body of evidence to support is the definition of illogical. It is hope and desire at that point. 

 

Put it this way... if Josh and Pat are pretty much equal every year of their careers from here on in then Mahomes will still have been the better QB over his career. So Josh has to go again to surpass Mahomes. That isn't just about winning Championships it is about everything. It is just not logical to throw Mahomes's first two years as a starter out. 

 

Here's what I think is really interesting: the bolded statement is exactly the argument in 2018 to not draft Josh Allen--as we've rehashed already, I was in that camp making that argument. And the 2018 season was exactly why all the Josh Allen skeptics were proven right about him--he became a Meme himself. And the 2019 season was still exactly why the skeptics were proven right--"he's inaccurate and can't even break 60% in a 'good year!"

 

If the past is predictive, maybe it's time to use that same logic with Josh Allen, who keeps proving doubters wrong and drastically improving.

 

It seems you and @FireChan think Allen has hit his ceiling and is about to hit a wall. Am I wrong?

 

If past is predictive as you say it is, it's logical to say Allen will be better than Mahomes in 2021.

 

And that's one of the reasons I believe you don't make that trade.

[NewEra]

6 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

True, they can't play with the same supporting cast.  But that doesn't mean that one's supporting cast can't be (determined to be) better than another's.  Again if you were to ask people which OC they'd rather have, it would be Reid and it wouldn't be close (you'd probably get a lot of "who is the Bills' OC/Brian Daboll?").  If you were to ask if they'd rather have Kelce, Hill, Watkins and Hardiman or Diggs, Beasley, Brown and Davis, they'd say the former.  RBs?  OL (prior to the last quarter of the AFCCG and especially now)?  You get the point.

 

And talk of being the GOAT is premature with Mahomes.  He still has a long way to go just to be considered a HOF'er.  Josh doesn't even enter into the conversation after just 1 season.

Sure, just like jerry Rices supporting cast.  I don’t hear anyone saying that Larry Fitz would be better if he played with Rices’ supporting cast.  Or Calvin Johnson.  Or Wayne Gretzkys supporting cast.  Bill Russel”s.  It’s just part of the equation.   Meanwhile, Dan Marino and his crap cast of teammates sits outside in the cold.  That’s just how it is.  
 

of course the talk of Mahomes being the GOAT is premature.  He’s only started 3 years.  And had the best first 3 years of any QB in history.....and it’s not really close.  Is it? 
 

It didn’t stop anyone from talking about Tiger catching Jack after his third year.  When athletes come in and win the sports 3 most prestigious awards in their first 2 years, talk of all time greatness is inevitable.  premature or not, his projection is that of one of the best ever.  It’s not slight on Josh.  As much as I can’t stand him, Mahomes is worthy of the discussion imo.