Fairburn would swap Allen for Mahomes. Would you?

[transplantbillsfan]

On 5/25/2021 at 11:28 AM, Shaw66 said:

I wouldn't trade. 

 

Mahomes has been better for each of the last three seasons.  However, I'm trading for the future, not the past, and the question is who will be better on the long run?   It's a close question, and I'd bet that on a Chiefs board, the vote comes out the opposite as here.   Still, here is why I prefer Allen:

 

1.  Better arm.  Yes, Mahomes has a howitzer, but Allen can make all the fundamental throws more easily than Mahomes, because he has better arm strength.  All hasn't made the highlight-reel no-look passes that Mahomes is famous for, but Allen already is making the sidearm throws and most other funky throws.   But plain all slants, outs, deep balls all are less work for Allen to throw, which means he can make those throws better when he's in trouble, and it probably means he will age better.  Big Ben still makes some amazing throws, and it's just because of his size.  

 

2.  Running ability. May not be a long-term benefit, but so long as Allen is a true running threat, he has an edge on Mahomes. 

 

3.  Ability to avoid pressure in the pocket.   Allen's strength in the face of pressure is a clear advantage.   Incidental hits don't both him. 

 

4.  Coaching and surrounding cast.   Part of Mahomes success has been that he has an offensive genius as a coach and he has Kelce and Hill.  I think that if the Bills and Chiefs traded QBs, Allen would clearly be better in KC that Mahomes in Buffalo.  In other words, I think Allen is a good QB, period.  Put him on any team, and he's going to excel.   Put Mahomes on a mediocre team and he'll struggle more.  

 

5.  I'm a Bills fan. 

 

Yes, Yes, Yes, Yes, and Yes

On 5/25/2021 at 12:01 PM, QCity said:

This is pure homer click bait. Outside of this fanbase it's not even a discussion really.

 

That doesn’t mean people outside of the fan base are right.

 

People outside of the fan base viewed Josh Allen as some form of a laughing stock for his first 2 years. This fanbase did not.

 

Who was right?

[BillsFan692]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Yes, Yes, Yes, Yes, and Yes

 

That doesn’t mean people outside of the fan base are right.

 

People outside of the fan base viewed Josh Allen as some form of a laughing stock for his first 2 years. This fanbase did not.

 

Who was right?

Thats because the fans pay a lot closer attention and know a difference maker when they see one.

 

National media talking heads say stupid, uninformed drivel. Mostly for "click bait". Now THATS irony!

 

 

Edited May 27, 2021 by BillsFan692

[FireChans]

7 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Kelvin Benjamin went to the Chiefs. He dropped a sure TD pass from Mahomes and never saw the field again. He was the same player in his very short tenure there as he was here. It is not the case that superstar QBs can turn bad pass catchers into good pass catchers. Knox is a bad pass catcher. It is entirely possible that Mahomes won't look as good once Kelce retires. I'd say it's practically certain that he will never hit these numbers again once Kelce and Hill are gone unless they are replaced by equal players. Just like Allen would not be the same player with Diggs off the team. I never understood the argument that the surrounding cast doesn't make a difference. I was arguing last year that it was hard to judge Allen with John Brown as his top WR, lo and behold Diggs arrives and Allen becomes a superstar.

That’s great because no one has made that argument.

4 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Yes, Yes, Yes, Yes, and Yes

 

That doesn’t mean people outside of the fan base are right.

 

People outside of the fan base viewed Josh Allen as some form of a laughing stock for his first 2 years. This fanbase did not.

 

Who was right?

All fanbases convince themselves that any QB that plays for them may be good. This is the broken clock argument. You of all people should know that.

 

Here’s a topic where you said you basically loved every bum we have had at QB EXCEPT ALLEN. lol

 

 

 

HOMERS GONNA HOMER

Edited May 27, 2021 by FireChans

[FireChans]

8 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Are you claiming that Kelce & Knox are at the same level and the difference between them is the QB throwing to them?

 

The last 2 years that Kelce played with Smith he was already recognized as an elite TE.  Knox hasn't come close to matching the numbers Kelce had with Smith.  And for the record I think Knox will have a great season and become a top 10 - 15 TE this year.

 

That Kelce's numbers got even better with Mahomes is more the result of Kelce continuing to improve; Mahomes being a better QB then Smith and Reid recognizing what he had with Mahomes & Kelce and channeling more of the offense through them.

 

As far as "homers being homers" goes I'll take a homer every day of the week over fans who only ever see that that the grass is greener on the other side of the fence.

 

 

 

 

 

 

No. Work on your reading comprehension.

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The underlying and obvious assumption on your part in your previous post was that it's Mahomes who made Kelce great.  Kelce was already great.  And it was with Alex Smith at QB.

 

Knox has been a below average Tight End.  He was even a below average Tight End with an Elite QB throwing to him in 2020.  Mahomes would have obviously had to find his production elsewhere... and once again, despite the fact that Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce have been with the Chiefs and were already really good players even with Alex Smith throwing to them (Tyreek Hill had 75 receptions and nearly 1200 yards in Mahomes's redshirt year), he would have had Kelvin Benjamin, Deonte Thompson and Charles Clay as his "big 3" for weapons if he had to start in year 1 with Buffalo in 2017 (likely) or would have had Kelvin Benjamin, Zay Jones and Charles Clay if he managed to get all of 2017 off (unlikely) in Buffalo like he did in KC.

 

This isn't about being a homer.  This is you disregarding the reality that comparing Kelce and Knox is ABSOLUTELY RIDICULOUS!!!

 

Haters gonna hate...

You should also work on your reading comprehension.

[Big Gun]

Nope, no way! When it's all done and said, Allen will have had the better career. 

[HappyDays]

4 hours ago, FireChans said:

That’s great because no one has made that argument.

 

You're trying to argue that if Knox was on the Chiefs he would produce more because Mahomes is a better QB. I'm saying we have one example of a Bills WR going to the Chiefs and he did not magically become more productive. If Zay Jones was on the Chiefs he wouldn't suddenly learn to track and catch the ball. Beasley and Diggs and Brown have already had career years here, I doubt they would raise the bar even higher just because Mahomes was throwing them the ball. There's no evidence that Knox would be more productive there.

 

Production wise, Allen and Mahomes were pretty close last year. Allen had 4,977 total yards and 46 total TDs. Mahomes had 5,048 total yards and 40 total TDs. I would say Allen had the slight edge in receivers, Mahomes had the slight edge in RBs, Mahomes has a ridiculously massive edge in TE, Mahomes has an equally large edge in play caller (which isn't even a slight against Daboll, Reid just happens to be the best of all time.) It's silly to look at those numbers and that context and say "anyone who thinks Allen is on Mahomes' level is a homer."

 

If you're going to argue that Mahomes is clearly the pick over Allen, the one thing you have going for you is head to head performance. Mahomes was a lot better in both Bills games last year. Allen and Daboll need to figure out how to beat the Chiefs defense. But on the whole last year they performed at a very similar level. It's perfectly reasonable for someone to look at Allen's performance last year and his trajectory since entering the league and conclude that they'd rather have him in the long run, just as reasonable as someone saying they'll take the safe pick in Mahomes.

Edited May 27, 2021 by HappyDays

[Boxcar]

On 5/25/2021 at 5:54 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

I disagree that it matters much. It matters early in a Quarterback's development but I don't think once you have a seasoned vet it matters. I think Mahomes would be great at this point with Chan Gailey calling the plays. He wouldn't have been great off the bat in that scenario, I grant you, but at this point I don't think it matters. Similarly while I think Daboll deserves credit for his work with Josh at this stage where Josh is I don't think he'd have regressed had Daboll moved on. The early years it matters much more.

 

Pat Mahomes, in my opinion, is very likely to be considered the greatest to ever do it at the point he retires. I know that isn't a popular opinion here, but that is genuinely my view. 

I don't really think this is a particularly hot take. However, Josh Allen is more physically gifted and it's not hard to see him ending up as the better QB. Mahomes is more of a sure thing, though.

 

Ultimately, I don't think the Chiefs or the Bills would make this trade.

[Ramza86]

Id make the trade. I would prolly tear up a bit hitting that red trade button though.

 

Hard to get rid of a warrior team first guy like him.

[CountDorkula]

I love Josh, but there is a lot of homerism in this thread.

 

Mahomes is the superior QB, and there is nothing wrong admitting that.

 

I love how Allen is a Buffalo guy, that is until he gets paid and people start blaming him if the team doesn't take the next step.

 

I make the trade all day every day and twice on Sundays.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, CountDorkula said:

 

Mahomes is the superior QB, and there is nothing wrong admitting that.

 

 

Your verb tense is wrong. Mahomes has been the superior QB.  That doesn't mean he will be the superior QB in the future.  

 

Obviously, Mahomes became excellent more quickly than Allen, but as someone said, it's hard to say who was better in 2020.  They had nearly identical passer ratings. The MVP voters preferred Allen.   If they both replicate their 2020 performances for the next 15 years, it would be really hard to say which was better. 

 

As I've said, I think over the years to come, Allen's size and arm strength will give him the edge.  As QBs get older they run less well and have to stay in the pocket more.  That's where Allen's body will make the difference.  

Edited May 27, 2021 by Shaw66

[FireChans]

6 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

You're trying to argue that if Knox was on the Chiefs he would produce more because Mahomes is a better QB. I'm saying we have one example of a Bills WR going to the Chiefs and he did not magically become more productive. If Zay Jones was on the Chiefs he wouldn't suddenly learn to track and catch the ball. Beasley and Diggs and Brown have already had career years here, I doubt they would raise the bar even higher just because Mahomes was throwing them the ball. There's no evidence that Knox would be more productive there.

 

Production wise, Allen and Mahomes were pretty close last year. Allen had 4,977 total yards and 46 total TDs. Mahomes had 5,048 total yards and 40 total TDs. I would say Allen had the slight edge in receivers, Mahomes had the slight edge in RBs, Mahomes has a ridiculously massive edge in TE, Mahomes has an equally large edge in play caller (which isn't even a slight against Daboll, Reid just happens to be the best of all time.) It's silly to look at those numbers and that context and say "anyone who thinks Allen is on Mahomes' level is a homer."

 

If you're going to argue that Mahomes is clearly the pick over Allen, the one thing you have going for you is head to head performance. Mahomes was a lot better in both Bills games last year. Allen and Daboll need to figure out how to beat the Chiefs defense. But on the whole last year they performed at a very similar level. It's perfectly reasonable for someone to look at Allen's performance last year and his trajectory since entering the league and conclude that they'd rather have him in the long run, just as reasonable as someone saying they'll take the safe pick in Mahomes.

Yeah he probably would. He wouldn’t be an All-Pro and he wouldn’t be a ProBowler but he might do a little bit better.

 

We all saw what happened to John Brown and Cole Beasley with Allen compared to their ex-QB’s. As a general rule, a better QB =‘s better numbers for pass-catchers. You are ignoring 20+ years of data if you believe otherwise for a few outliers.

 

Kelvin Benjamin is a big fat tub of goo. No QB could make him work. 
 

I don’t think it’s reasonable to think Allen has a “better” chance of being better than Mahomes. If you wanna bet on it because Allen is your boy, by all means. 

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

I don’t think it’s reasonable to think Allen has a “better” chance of being better than Mahomes. If you wanna bet on it because Allen is your boy, by all means. 

 

Agree. I think it is reasonable to say "look there is a chance Josh could overtake him" but I think that is less likely than Mahomes winning multiple Superbowls and going down as the best of his era. 

[transient]

The real question is, if you could, would you trade Matthew Fairburn for Tyler Dunne?

[Rico]

If the Rat is winning multiple rings, it will have to be with a better big-game coach, because Fat ***** isn’t doing it. He was lucky to go up against an even bigger Big Game Chump in Kyle Shanahan, who choked and gifted him a SB 2 years ago. This past year, Fat ***** reverted back to form. 
 

That being said, McD hasn’t exactly proven himself in big games either. I do like to think that he learns from his mistakes, and after last year’s debacle in KC, he will have this team more than ready for a repeat encounter. As such, I will give the long-term advantage to Josh  … but only time will tell.

[HappyDays]

59 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree. I think it is reasonable to say "look there is a chance Josh could overtake him" but I think that is less likely than Mahomes winning multiple Superbowls and going down as the best of his era. 

 

Were you not saying earlier in the season that Allen was playing just as well as Mahomes? Did the playoffs make you change your mind back?

[transplantbillsfan]

11 hours ago, FireChans said:

That’s great because no one has made that argument.

 

It's a pretty apt statement considering what you said.

 

11 hours ago, FireChans said:

All fanbases convince themselves that any QB that plays for them may be good. This is the broken clock argument. You of all people should know that.

 

Here’s a topic where you said you basically loved every bum we have had at QB EXCEPT ALLEN. lol

 

 

 

HOMERS GONNA HOMER

 

I haven't hid from any of my dislike of Allen during the draft process, so I don't know what you think you're accomplishing.

 

My dislike of Allen during the draft process was based on a flawed premise... essentially the same premise in terms of most of the dislike of him:  Analytics.

 

I watched very little of him (I watch very little college ball, anyway), so I was relying on analytics.  But there are posters here like @GoBills808 here and guys who watch the film like Mel Kiper who really liked him.  That was a scouting argument, not an analytics one.

 

I have no problem with people bringing that  thread back to the forefront to remind me of it.  I was very, very wrong.  And I'm very, very glad.

 

11 hours ago, FireChans said:

No. Work on your reading comprehension.

 

Brevity is the soul of...

 

11 hours ago, FireChans said:

You should also work on your reading comprehension.

 

someone who knows they're miserably losing an argument.

 

 

 

Sad that you just resort to personal attacks and cherry pick the portions of an argument you want to respond to (apparently with personal attacks) rather than actually having a rational discussion.  Are you capable of having a rational discussion?

[FireChans]

6 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

It's a pretty apt statement considering what you said.

 

 

I haven't hid from any of my dislike of Allen during the draft process, so I don't know what you think you're accomplishing.

 

My dislike of Allen during the draft process was based on a flawed premise... essentially the same premise in terms of most of the dislike of him:  Analytics.

 

I watched very little of him (I watch very little college ball, anyway), so I was relying on analytics.  But there are posters here like @GoBills808 here and guys who watch the film like Mel Kiper who really liked him.  That was a scouting argument, not an analytics one.

 

I have no problem with people bringing that  thread back to the forefront to remind me of it.  I was very, very wrong.  And I'm very, very glad.

 

 

Brevity is the soul of...

 

 

someone who knows they're miserably losing an argument.

 

 

 

Sad that you just resort to personal attacks and cherry pick the portions of an argument you want to respond to (apparently with personal attacks) rather than actually having a rational discussion.  Are you capable of having a rational discussion?

Personal attacks? You either intentionally or otherwise missed my CLEARLY stated point (Kelce’s stats improved with Mahomes). I gave you the benefit of the doubt, that it was a failure of reading comprehension. I won’t waste my time defending things I never said nor implied.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

52 minutes ago, transient said:

The real question is, if you could, would you trade Matthew Fairburn for Tyler Dunne?

Jerry Sullivan.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree. I think it is reasonable to say "look there is a chance Josh could overtake him" but I think that is less likely than Mahomes winning multiple Superbowls and going down as the best of his era. 

Gunner -  If you explained your opinion in more detail, I apologize - either I don't recall it or I didn't see.   What I'm curious about is that it's very difficult to say which QB was better in 2020.  Allen was slightly behind Mahomes in QBR and passer rating, Allen was the better runner.  

 

So, what is it that makes you so sure, because you seem really certain about this, that Mahomes will have the better career by the time they both hang em up?   Yes, Mahomes has a ring.  But Mahomes also was as bad or worse than Allen in his 2020 playoff loss.   

 

Again, I'm really not arguing.  I love Mahomes.  I just think that if 2020 was a push, it just isn't so clear that Mahomes will be better, as you seem to think it is.   Especially when we consider that Mahomes has an additional year's experience at the pro level, and he played in a more competitive college environment.    In terms of being truly seasoned pros, Allen is still a year behind Mahomes.   So, I don't get why you think it's so clear.  

 

 

[transient]

14 minutes ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Jerry Sullivan.

Now that's just mean. Matthew's feelings would probably be less hurt if you suggested trading him for a flaming bag of 💩