Fairburn would swap Allen for Mahomes. Would you?

[JoPoy88]

It’s a toss up from a talent standpoint for me, so I’d take the known quantity from a coaching and chemistry angle and keep Allen.

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, Fan in Chicago said:

I wonder what his final achievements need to be to displace the current front-runner for GOAT. One more SB win than him? 5 Superbowls + better stats? I dont know the answer and only history will tell eventually.

 

A tennis analogy comes to mind - how many Grand Slams does Djokovic need to win to be considered the GOAT over Federer/Nadal? Equaling their record wont do it for ND. 

 

Why not?  Iirc he has the best head to head record between the 3 as well

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, Fan in Chicago said:

 

A tennis analogy comes to mind - how many Grand Slams does Djokovic need to win to be considered the GOAT over Federer/Nadal? Equaling their record wont do it for ND. 

 

 

Roger Federer is the goat. He is the greatest player to ever pick up a racquet regardless of how many slams Novak wins. 

[transplantbillsfan]

15 hours ago, FireChans said:

No, I think that argument holds some merit. It just has two large problems.

 

Ah, so you acknowledged it's actually a rational argument...

 

Finally!

 

15 hours ago, FireChans said:

 

1. Holds Mahomes’ greatness against him. Allen got his weapons and time to develop and became a superstar. Mahomes had weapons in place and was a superstar out of the box (in terms of when he first started.)

 

Why is this a problem? You've also neglected the EXTREMELY important factor of redshirt year behind a smart, 10+ year vet QB who was a former #1 draft pick and a QB guru developing him as his head coach.

 

15 hours ago, FireChans said:

 

2. Piggybacking off that, if Mahomes and Allen were drafted to opposite teams, like is so often argued, and Mahomes had to deal with the bum brigade in 18, then 19 with Brown and Bease, then a true 1 in Diggs in 2020, wouldn’t we have expected a meteoric rise in his statistics as well?

 

I would have expected a rise. Even a significant rise, maybe. I just don't know if it would have been the same.

 

Allen had an AWFUL team surrounding him on offense in his rookie year. His OL was TERRIBLE! Mahomes appears to be more injury prone than Allen so far. And that's with significantly more offensive talent and a better OL. Would Mahomes have even made it through the amount of games Allen did considering even Allen got injured? Mahomes also isn't the runner Allen is. I think we can all acknowledge that. Would Mahomes have been able to even do anything in his rookie year with the likes of Kelvin Benjamin, Zay Jones, Robert Foster and Charles Clay as his weapons?

 

You seem to think he would have, right?

 

Have you also assumed he was drafted by Buffalo in 2017 and was developed in the same way he was in KC in 2017? That seems to be what you're assuming.

 

Sorry. I wasn't brief. But your reference to Hamlet is inappropriate considering it was stated ironically (dramatic irony) in a situation where a character is not engaging in discourse but is instead trying to explain something he was told.

[Shaw66]

17 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I disagree that it matters much. It matters early in a Quarterback's development but I don't think once you have a seasoned vet it matters. I think Mahomes would be great at this point with Chan Gailey calling the plays. He wouldn't have been great off the bat in that scenario, I grant you, but at this point I don't think it matters. Similarly while I think Daboll deserves credit for his work with Josh at this stage where Josh is I don't think he'd have regressed had Daboll moved on. The early years it matters much more.

 

Pat Mahomes, in my opinion, is very likely to be considered the greatest to ever do it at the point he retires. I know that isn't a popular opinion here, but that is genuinely my view. 

It's all about the future, and none of us knows what's going to happen.  

 

I agree that Mahomes has arrived, in the sense that he already is at the point where we can say he will be an excellent QB for the rest of his career.  The question is whether Allen will pass him.  Again, no one knows for sure, and I gave my reasons why I think Allen will pass him.  Your reasoning is just you extrapolate what Mahomes has done so far and conclude that that career will be the greatest.   That's fair, but I don't extrapolate.   I think when Reid retires, the extrapolation is no longer valid.  Mahomes will still be an excellent QB, but he'll need to hitch a ride on another outstanding program.   

 

Allen still has to progress, but he's likely set for his career in terms of the program he's playing for.   Maybe put another way, I'd predict that Allen will win more Super Bowls than Mahomes, because Allen will have McDermott for his entire career (and have the benefit of McDermott's continuing improvement as a coach), and Mahomes will have Reid only for a half dozen more years, and Reid's not getting any better.  

 

All just fun to talk about, because who knows?  And I agree with someone who said it's pretty much only Bills fans who think that Allen will be better in the long run.   Doesn't mean the Bills fans are wrong - we thought Allen was good two years ago and most of the rest oc the country thought he sucked.   Who was wrong about that?

 

With players at the facility, I'm starting to get excited for football to get going again.  Can't wait for camp.  

[berg1029]

Would I swap player for player Allen for Mahomes with no stipulations?  Yes.  While I think Allen is an AMAZING player and is going to continue to improve, I would still trade him 1:1 for Mahomes in a heartbeat. Mahomes is still young and is already penciled in as one of the best all time to play the position.  I could even see making an argument that if he retired this year he would still be a HOF worth QB.  Allen, I think/hope, will get to Mahomes level (or maybe exceed?), but Mahomes is already there.

 

Would I swap player for player (Allen for Mahomes) with the stipulations in the OP (player for play, each plays same position, both have to be starters)?  No.  Allen is an amazing player already (top 5 QB) and you could upgrade the team more by swapping for an All-pro at a position of weakness (i.e. a d-lineman such as Aaron Donald or a pass rusher such as TJ Watt)

[FireChans]

9 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Ah, so you acknowledged it's actually a rational argument...

 

Finally!

 

 

Why is this a problem? You've also neglected the EXTREMELY important factor of redshirt year behind a smart, 10+ year vet QB who was a former #1 draft pick and a QB guru developing him as his head coach.

 

 

I would have expected a rise. Even a significant rise, maybe. I just don't know if it would have been the same.

 

Allen had an AWFUL team surrounding him on offense in his rookie year. His OL was TERRIBLE! Mahomes appears to be more injury prone than Allen so far. And that's with significantly more offensive talent and a better OL. Would Mahomes have even made it through the amount of games Allen did considering even Allen got injured? Mahomes also isn't the runner Allen is. I think we can all acknowledge that. Would Mahomes have been able to even do anything in his rookie year with the likes of Kelvin Benjamin, Zay Jones, Robert Foster and Charles Clay as his weapons?

 

You seem to think he would have, right?

 

Have you also assumed he was drafted by Buffalo in 2017 and was developed in the same way he was in KC in 2017? That seems to be what you're assuming.

 

Sorry. I wasn't brief. But your reference to Hamlet is inappropriate considering it was stated ironically (dramatic irony) in a situation where a character is not engaging in discourse but is instead trying to explain something he was told.

Like I said, this devolves into the kids playing in the sandbox. “Mahomes wouldn’t have done as well in Buffalo because XYZ.” 
 

There’s nothing to say to that. It’s make-believe. I can’t disprove those claims, nor can you prove them. There’s zero evidence. 
 

All I can say is Mahomes is and has been a better QB than Josh. There’s lots of evidence there. 
 

See, that’s brevity.

 

PS Mahomes is more injury prone is a hilarious take when Mahomes has missed 3 career games and Allen has missed 4. Homerism times 1 billion. This is like trying to convince you to be an atheist. 

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

It's all about the future, and none of us knows what's going to happen.  

 

I agree that Mahomes has arrived, in the sense that he already is at the point where we can say he will be an excellent QB for the rest of his career.  The question is whether Allen will pass him.  Again, no one knows for sure, and I gave my reasons why I think Allen will pass him.  Your reasoning is just you extrapolate what Mahomes has done so far and conclude that that career will be the greatest.   That's fair, but I don't extrapolate.   I think when Reid retires, the extrapolation is no longer valid.  Mahomes will still be an excellent QB, but he'll need to hitch a ride on another outstanding program.   

 

Allen still has to progress, but he's likely set for his career in terms of the program he's playing for.   Maybe put another way, I'd predict that Allen will win more Super Bowls than Mahomes, because Allen will have McDermott for his entire career (and have the benefit of McDermott's continuing improvement as a coach), and Mahomes will have Reid only for a half dozen more years, and Reid's not getting any better.  

 

All just fun to talk about, because who knows?  And I agree with someone who said it's pretty much only Bills fans who think that Allen will be better in the long run.   Doesn't mean the Bills fans are wrong - we thought Allen was good two years ago and most of the rest oc the country thought he sucked.   Who was wrong about that?

 

With players at the facility, I'm starting to get excited for football to get going again.  Can't wait for camp.  

 

My reasoning is essentially I see no reason at all for Mahomes to slow down. I don't buy that there is a rational reason why he might. Now could Allen pass him? That is possible, I see the argument about physical potential I just think to be better Allen has to keep improving if he does again in 2021 then check back with me again in a year. But for now I think it pretty likely Mahomes will be not only the best of his era but the best of any era. 

[Shaw66]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

My reasoning is essentially I see no reason at all for Mahomes to slow down. I don't buy that there is a rational reason why he might. Now could Allen pass him? That is possible, I see the argument about physical potential I just think to be better Allen has to keep improving if he does again in 2021 then check back with me again in a year. But for now I think it pretty likely Mahomes will be not only the best of his era but the best of any era. 

Can't argue with that. It's all just opinions.  A separate interesting discussion is whether anyone can claim to be the GOAT without at least four or five Lombardis.  

 

Interestingly, Mahomes already is at the top of the career passer rating list.  Allen will almost certainly never get there. 

Edited May 26, 2021 by Shaw66

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

Like I said, this devolves into the kids playing in the sandbox. “Mahomes wouldn’t have done as well in Buffalo because XYZ.” 
 

There’s nothing to say to that. It’s make-believe. I can’t disprove those claims, nor can you prove them. There’s zero evidence. 
 

All I can say is Mahomes is and has been a better QB than Josh. There’s lots of evidence there. 
 

See, that’s brevity.

 

 

I don't know if you caught this, but it's worth a watch:

 

Now, I direct you to this because in it Alex Smith talks specifically about Andy Reid in terms of QB development.

 

Smith says that most coaches don't really focus on things like mechanics for QBs.  He says that when a QB throws it too high, most coaches will just say "gotta get that down."  Or when you miss someone, most coaches say "you gotta hit that WR."  Smith says that Reid wouldn't do that.  Instead he would point out legitimate mechanical flaws in your stance and delivery in order to help you out.

 

Now, Patrick Mahomes had this as his Head Coach for his entire rookie redshirt year as he worked through fixing his game and mechanics, which the vast majority of draft analysts in 2017 said he needed to do.  

 

What you're doing is completely dismissing the incredible benefit this was for him and completely dismissing the fact that Allen really didn't have anyone other than Jordan Palmer as someone reputable to work with on his mechanics, and that was only in the offseasons.  Ken Dorsey didn't even join the team until Allen's 2nd year.

 

Now put Allen on the Chiefs.  Give him a redshirt year and Andy Reid.  And put Mahomes on the Bills.  It's delusional to believe Mahomes would still be Mahomes if those situations were swapped.

 

And yeah, you're right, Mahomes has been better than Josh.  That doesn't mean he will be moving forward.

 

You're right, that's brevity.  It's also a weak and neglectful argument.

[Shaw66]

22 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I don't know if you caught this, but it's worth a watch:

 

Now, I direct you to this because in it Alex Smith talks specifically about Andy Reid in terms of QB development.

 

 

 

Thanks. Incredible interview. 

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I don't know if you caught this, but it's worth a watch:

 

Now, I direct you to this because in it Alex Smith talks specifically about Andy Reid in terms of QB development.

 

Smith says that most coaches don't really focus on things like mechanics for QBs.  He says that when a QB throws it too high, most coaches will just say "gotta get that down."  Or when you miss someone, most coaches say "you gotta hit that WR."  Smith says that Reid wouldn't do that.  Instead he would point out legitimate mechanical flaws in your stance and delivery in order to help you out.

 

Now, Patrick Mahomes had this as his Head Coach for his entire rookie redshirt year as he worked through fixing his game and mechanics, which the vast majority of draft analysts in 2017 said he needed to do.  

 

What you're doing is completely dismissing the incredible benefit this was for him and completely dismissing the fact that Allen really didn't have anyone other than Jordan Palmer as someone reputable to work with on his mechanics, and that was only in the offseasons.  Ken Dorsey didn't even join the team until Allen's 2nd year.

 

Now put Allen on the Chiefs.  Give him a redshirt year and Andy Reid.  And put Mahomes on the Bills.  It's delusional to believe Mahomes would still be Mahomes if those situations were swapped.

 

And yeah, you're right, Mahomes has been better than Josh.  That doesn't mean he will be moving forward.

 

You're right, that's brevity.  It's also a weak and neglectful argument.

And Allen wouldn’t be Allen. He wouldn’t have a wild jump where he finally got weapons. 
 

What you don’t seem to understand is that I can agree Mahomes had some nice perks coming into the league and also think that he’s the best QB in football. But he is.

 

Thats why you’re being silly. “Mahomes had help” doesn’t make him any less great.

Edited May 26, 2021 by FireChans

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Can't argue with that. It's all just opinions.  A separate interesting discussion is whether anyone can claim to be the GOAT without at least four or five Lombardis.  

 

Interestingly, Mahomes already is at the top of the career passer rating list.  Allen will almost certainly never get there. 

 

I don't think anyone can be the GOAT without those Super Bowls.  I still think it's Brady, then Montana, then you talk about everyone below them.

 

Mahomes needs a minimum of 3 more to even talk about him being the GOAT.  And Allen needs to start winning some and would need at least 4.

 

In terms of the career passer rating, I think that's actually the one Allen could catch up to.  I don't think Allen will catch up to total passing TDs or total passing yards for Mahomes, though.

[transplantbillsfan]

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

And Allen wouldn’t be Allen. He wouldn’t have a wild jump where he finally got weapons. 
 

 

Yes.  He would have already had them.  And maybe it's Allen winning league MVP in 2018 and the Super Bowl in 2019.

 

Or maybe Allen and his Chiefs beat Brady and the Patriots in 2018 and win it in year 1.

 

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

What you don’t seem to understand is that I can agree Mahomes had some nice perks coming into the league and also think that he’s the best QB in football. But he is.

 

Thats why you’re being silly. “Mahomes had help” doesn’t make him any less great.

 

No it doesn't but if they made the trade Mahomes would be on a completely different team with completely different weapons and completely different coaches.

 

Swapping Mahomes and Allen as Fairburn oddly brought up completely neglects what each player walks into.  Mahomes wouldn't have a dominant (or even capable) TE like Kelce, who was 2nd in the NFL in YAC and was tied for 1st in Big plays last year with Justin Jefferson and Calvin Ridley last year.  He'd have Knox.  

 

Kelce has been targeted by Mahomes by far more than any other player on the team and over the last 3 years has averaged 144 targets, 102 receptions, 1,327 yards and 9 TDs per season.

 

Sure looks like Mahomes relies heavily on his Tight Ends and we don't really have any good ones in Buffalo.

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Yes.  He would have already had them.  And maybe it's Allen winning league MVP in 2018 and the Super Bowl in 2019.

 

Or maybe Allen and his Chiefs beat Brady and the Patriots in 2018 and win it in year 1.

 

 

No it doesn't but if they made the trade Mahomes would be on a completely different team with completely different weapons and completely different coaches.

 

Swapping Mahomes and Allen as Fairburn oddly brought up completely neglects what each player walks into.  Mahomes wouldn't have a dominant (or even capable) TE like Kelce, who was 2nd in the NFL in YAC and was tied for 1st in Big plays last year with Justin Jefferson and Calvin Ridley last year.  He'd have Knox.  

 

Kelce has been targeted by Mahomes by far more than any other player on the team and over the last 3 years has averaged 144 targets, 102 receptions, 1,327 yards and 9 TDs per season.

 

Sure looks like Mahomes relies heavily on his Tight Ends and we don't really have any good ones in Buffalo.

I mean, Kelce also has Mahomes to thank.

 

In the three seasons prior to Mahomes, with a solid QB, Kelce had 3000 yards and 17 TDs. In 3 seasons with Mahomes, he has almost 4000 yards and 26 TDs.

 

Maybe Knox would be a bit better with Mahomie as the signal caller.

 

Again, no one is arguing that Mahomes doesn’t have good weapons. He does. He’s also a better QB than Josh. You can have better weapons AND be better.

[transplantbillsfan]

21 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I mean, Kelce also has Mahomes to thank.

 

In the three seasons prior to Mahomes, with a solid QB, Kelce had 3000 yards and 17 TDs. In 3 seasons with Mahomes, he has almost 4000 yards and 26 TDs.

 

Maybe Knox would be a bit better with Mahomie as the signal caller.

 

Again, no one is arguing that Mahomes doesn’t have good weapons. He does. He’s also a better QB than Josh. You can have better weapons AND be better.

 

No.  Now you're just plain wrong.  Yes, Kelce got better statistically when Mahomes came in, but Kelce was already talked about as one of the best Tight Ends in the NFL with Alex Smith as his QB.  In each of the 2 seasons before Mahomes started Kelce had over 1,000 yards and over 80 receptions.

 

And I wonder how much you watch the Bills?  Knox's biggest issue (especially in his first 2 years) is that he drops way more passes than he should.  

 

Are you trying to say that Knox wouldn't drop passes if Mahomes were his QB?  Because Mahomes is just so good that he has the power to make you catch balls you would otherwise drop from inferior QBs?

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

No.  Now you're just plain wrong.  Yes, Kelce got better statistically

 

And I wonder how much you watch the Bills?  Knox's biggest issue (especially in his first 2 years) is that he drops way more passes than he should.  

 

Are you trying to say that Knox wouldn't drop passes if Mahomes were his QB?  Because Mahomes is just so good that he has the power to make you catch balls you would otherwise drop from inferior QBs?

So I'm not wrong, in fact, I'm right.

 

And while Knox does drop a lot of passes, it's really sad that you're using that to argue a better QB won't improve his pass-catchers' numbers. This is an obvious fact in the NFL.  I already gave you an example with Kelce and I can give many more. Homers gonna homer.

Edited May 27, 2021 by FireChans

[CincyBillsFan]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

So I'm not wrong, in fact, I'm right.

 

And while Knox does drop a lot of passes, it's really sad that you're using that to argue a better QB won't improve his pass-catchers' numbers. This is an obvious fact in the NFL.  I already gave you an example with Kelce and I can give many more. Homers gonna homer.

Are you claiming that Kelce & Knox are at the same level and the difference between them is the QB throwing to them?

 

The last 2 years that Kelce played with Smith he was already recognized as an elite TE.  Knox hasn't come close to matching the numbers Kelce had with Smith.  And for the record I think Knox will have a great season and become a top 10 - 15 TE this year.

 

That Kelce's numbers got even better with Mahomes is more the result of Kelce continuing to improve; Mahomes being a better QB then Smith and Reid recognizing what he had with Mahomes & Kelce and channeling more of the offense through them.

 

As far as "homers being homers" goes I'll take a homer every day of the week over fans who only ever see that that the grass is greener on the other side of the fence.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

5 minutes ago, FireChans said:

So I'm not wrong, in fact, I'm right.

 

And while Knox does drop a lot of passes, it's really sad that you're using that to argue a better QB won't improve his pass-catchers' numbers. This is an obvious fact in the NFL.  I already gave you an example with Kelce and I can give many more. Homers gonna homer.

 

The underlying and obvious assumption on your part in your previous post was that it's Mahomes who made Kelce great.  Kelce was already great.  And it was with Alex Smith at QB.

 

Knox has been a below average Tight End.  He was even a below average Tight End with an Elite QB throwing to him in 2020.  Mahomes would have obviously had to find his production elsewhere... and once again, despite the fact that Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce have been with the Chiefs and were already really good players even with Alex Smith throwing to them (Tyreek Hill had 75 receptions and nearly 1200 yards in Mahomes's redshirt year), he would have had Kelvin Benjamin, Deonte Thompson and Charles Clay as his "big 3" for weapons if he had to start in year 1 with Buffalo in 2017 (likely) or would have had Kelvin Benjamin, Zay Jones and Charles Clay if he managed to get all of 2017 off (unlikely) in Buffalo like he did in KC.

 

This isn't about being a homer.  This is you disregarding the reality that comparing Kelce and Knox is ABSOLUTELY RIDICULOUS!!!

 

Haters gonna hate...

[HappyDays]

4 hours ago, FireChans said:

And while Knox does drop a lot of passes, it's really sad that you're using that to argue a better QB won't improve his pass-catchers' numbers. This is an obvious fact in the NFL.  I already gave you an example with Kelce and I can give many more. Homers gonna homer.

 

Kelvin Benjamin went to the Chiefs. He dropped a sure TD pass from Mahomes and never saw the field again. He was the same player in his very short tenure there as he was here. It is not the case that superstar QBs can turn bad pass catchers into good pass catchers. Knox is a bad pass catcher. It is entirely possible that Mahomes won't look as good once Kelce retires. I'd say it's practically certain that he will never hit these numbers again once Kelce and Hill are gone unless they are replaced by equal players. Just like Allen would not be the same player with Diggs off the team. I never understood the argument that the surrounding cast doesn't make a difference. I was arguing last year that it was hard to judge Allen with John Brown as his top WR, lo and behold Diggs arrives and Allen becomes a superstar.

Edited May 27, 2021 by HappyDays