Etienne thought he was going to be a Bill

[DrDawkinstein]

26 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You're not comparing them? Why not? You absolutely should. They were picked within a couple of spots of each other, or would have been if the Bills had taken Etienne at 30. Both are serious passing threats. Both (if you consider Etienne possibly going to Buffalo) went or would have gone to teams built around sensational QBs throwing to excellent WR corps who throw a very large percentage of plays.

 

The situations were very parallel indeed.

 

And injuries happen. It wasn't all that freaky. It happened to all our WRs. It's not that weird that it happened to their two tackles.

 

You see major room for improvement over Singletary and Moss? More reason for comparison. KC obviously saw major room for improvement over their 2019 RB room, which was Damien Williams, Darrel Williams and the aging LeSean McCoy. And yet they got actually fewer run yards after drafting Edwards-Helaire, and about the same amount of passing yards to RBs.

 

And being done with Singletary is nuts, I think.

 

The Bills were one of the two or three worst teams in the league last year in terms of yards before contact and yet Singletary still managed 4.4 YPC. There's every indication that with better blocking he'll once again be a very productive guy.

 

18 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

I am trying to not Wade to deep in here, but let’s get some perspective on this.

 

Lets assume you are giving him most of the touches that went to Singletary and Moss.  Their average per carry (with all our complaining) was top 30 in the league at 4.4 and 4.3.  So if we dare to assume that ETN is significantly better (which is unproven and only a hope) and assume he runs like Kamara for an average of 5.0 YPC - a huge assumption.  
 

If every carry that was given to the 2 starters was given to ETN instead and he was on par with Kamara as a top 10 RB - you get close to 160 more yards at the end of the season or about 9 yards more per game.  ETN versus Moss and Singletary gets you less than 1 first down as a RB.

 

If you do the same exercise with receiving yards - you give him every touch by Singletary and Moss and you make the huge assumption that ETN produces similar to Kamara.  You have ETN at the top end getting about 6 more receiving yards per game than Singletary and Moss.

 

So if we max out ETN to mirror Kamara (and I don’t believe he will produce anything close) we get maybe 1 first down a game.  Also Kamara produced significantly less per touch than a true WR like Beasley, Diggs, Brown, or Davis.  So if we end up taking touches in the passing game away from WRs to ETN because he is a better receiver than Singletary and Moss - then you are actually creating a situation where we produce less offense than 2020 because you are taking the ball from great WRs and give it to a RB.

 

Look ETN at 30 would have been fine, but as you see with Jacksonville- they are basically treating him like a WR.  He was never going to get the touches in the running game - so basically what we are seeing is he is great for a team with weak WRs, but on a team with a strong passing game and 4 excellent WRs - he provides little.

 

Could he help the Bills win more games maybe, but the data suggests that the difference he brings is most games would not be the difference between beating teams and losing - that rides on Josh Allen’s arm.  He brings a bit of support to the offense and maybe a change of pace, but even if he produces at an incredible rate (Alvin Kamara type averages) he produces 15 more yards than Singletary and Moss if every touch went his way and since they play by committee- really less than half of that is reasonable - you are looking at him producing and additional 8 yards a game.

 

 

 

Disagree.

 

lol

 

Let me just save you guys a lot of future typing. Even with examples of other teams, and player comparisons, I still would have been happy drafting ETN.

 

And don't get me wrong. I'm happy we went DE/DE/OT/OT and addressed the trenches early and often. Pretty much my dream draft. I wouldn't necessarily change the draft even if I could (although the idea of ETN and still landing Basham is intriguing, but not sure what would be possible depending on what Beane would have had to trade away to move up).

 

My only argument is that I think ETN could have been a good add, and helped this offense improve over where it was in 2020. And nothing is going to change my mind on that opinion of a what-if.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

He also said in the post-draft PC, "We were never targeting a running back or anything like that. I think that got overblown, it sounds like." That's not absolute proof, but it's pretty indicative. Certainly means they weren't trying to trade up for Etienne.

 

Logic said that he'd said in the pre-draft presser that we didn't have a home-run hitter on the roster. I said I didn't think he'd said that after we got Breida. I was correct. He said in the pre-draft PC that neither of the top two guys were home run hitter, not that we didn't have one. In fact, we do have one. I don't know how many snaps he'll get, but we've got one.

 

Precisely, "I don't think either one of our backs are home run hitters." He said "either" which is not used for three or more. 

 

Logic also said, "Beane literally said that if a running back added something to the room that they didn't already have, they'd absolutely take him." Again, no, he didn't say that. "They'd absolutely take him"? No, he never said that, nor would he. He seemed to indicate he might consider them in that situation, but he absolutely did not say either of those things Logic said he did, and you seemed to back him up on.

 

Guess we'll have to disagree on what they'd have done if Rousseau wasn't there and Etienne was. I'd bet that the way things fell, if Rousseau was gone but Etienne was there but everything else was the same that they'd have been grabbing one of probably Joe Tryon, Elijah Moore, Landon Dickerson, Christian Barmore or Teven Jenkins. Maybe Onwuzurike or Eichenberg as well. 

 

I can definitely see situations where they'd have taken him, but the way it fell, it sure looks doubtful to me.

 

Disagree with your interpretation of the pre draft presser totally. He said we would consider any position and he was not against taking a back but it would have to be a guy different than the ones we have and the ones we have are not home run hitters. 

 

I think your reading of this is way off.

 

EDIT: to add to this because I typed the initial response fast inbetween two work calls..... 

 

Asked by Sal M "have you spent enough capital on running backs in the last couple of years because there is some speculation you could take one at #30?"

Beane replied "we are not going into this draft saying we gotta get a back but if he is the best guy on the board we wouldn't hesitate to take him."

When pressed by Sal M on "whether it is worth a swing at #30?"

Beane said "you'd wanna know what does his skillset have in comparison to what we have on the roster, I don't think either one of our backs are home run hitters. So if there is an elite trait this guy has that we don't have then you have to have that conversation [about taking him]."

 

To me that was a very clear sign that a home run hitter type - Etienne potentially - was absolutely in their thoughts. Again, not saying he was the #1 target, not saying they liked him more than Rousseau, but they were definitely open to that type at #30. And I think there is next to no chance they'd have taken one of those other guys you listed ahead of him. The other guy they might have taken was Oweh. If Rousseau was gone, Etienne was still there and the rest of the board was the same I am pretty convinced Etienne or Oweh would have been the pick. 

 

EDIT2: To be clear I didn't want them to take a back, Etienne or anyone else, at #30. But what I want isn't the same as my assessment of what they thought. I think there is a lot of evidence that points to Etienne very much being in their thoughts. Beane's own words quoted above, the fact Etienne and his agent believed the interest was very real, the reports that the Bills attempts to trade up were specifically designed to jump Jacksonville who were definitely not in the pass rusher market. Again it isn't concrete proof, but to me it makes it pretty likely he was a target, thought not necessarily the target. 

Edited May 25, 2021 by GunnerBill

[Rochesterfan]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

Disagree.

 

lol

 

Let me just save you guys a lot of future typing. Even with examples of other teams, and player comparisons, I still would have been happy drafting ETN.

 

And don't get me wrong. I'm happy we went DE/DE/OT/OT and addressed the trenches early and often. Pretty much my dream draft. I wouldn't necessarily change the draft even if I could (although the idea of ETN and still landing Basham is intriguing, but not sure what would be possible depending on what Beane would have had to trade away to move up).

 

My only argument is that I think ETN could have been a good add, and helped this offense improve over where it was in 2020. And nothing is going to change my mind on that opinion of a what-if.

 

That is fine, but nothing would also suggest ETN would truly improve the offense and the data indicates otherwise - even if he is elite level - the impact is minimal.

 

Again my position if ETN was there at 30 and they picked him - great, but I was much more hopeful that a DE, OL, or CB would provide more help to the overall roster than a RB.

[ThurmanThomasEnglishMuffin]

On 5/24/2021 at 11:37 AM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

I get that the drought made some of you very out of touch with how the league works now.

 

But even if you go back to the last Bills SB run adding a first round RB has NEVER raised any already championship-game-level team to a SB winning team. 

 

You gotta' go back to Tony Dorsett in 1977 to find a 1st round RB that put a team over the top.

 

Things have changed a bit since then.

 

Stay willful, say ignorant, Doc.  😘

 

 

 

What about Emmitt Smith (DAL), Eddie George (TEN) or Jamal Lewis (BAL) just off the top of my head?

 

Maybe I misunderstand your point. Those teams don't win most of those SB without those RBs to control clock and play complimentary football IMO.

 

Sometimes a team needs to change pace in a game or run out clock. Last year the Rams nearly came back against Buffalo because they could not play 'keep away'.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, ThurmanThomasEnglishMuffin said:

 

What about Emmitt Smith (DAL), Eddie George (TEN) or Jamal Lewis (BAL) just off the top of my head?

 

Maybe I misunderstand your point. Those teams don't win most of those SB without those RBs to control clock and play complimentary football IMO.

 

Sometimes a team needs to change pace in a game or run out clock. Last year the Rams nearly came back against Buffalo because they could not play 'keep away'.

 

 

Yeah my point was that they weren't the final piece of championship puzzle as a rookie...........like Tony Dorsett in 1977 was..........which is a big part of the argument behind drafting Etienne.

 

I don't think anyone believes Etienne is going to have the career impact that those guys had generations ago when RB's were still often the best athletes on teams...........but they do have expectations that aren't supportable with comparable examples of that.

[ThurmanThomasEnglishMuffin]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah my point was that they weren't the final piece of championship puzzle as a rookie...........like Tony Dorsett in 1977 was..........which is a big part of the argument behind drafting Etienne.

 

I don't think anyone believes Etienne is going to have the career impact that those guys had generations ago when RB's were still often the best athletes on teams...........but they do have expectations that aren't supportable with comparable examples of that.

 

Ok, so your argument is that a high pick on a RB is not 'the missing piece' to push this team over the edge next season.

I can understand that, I'm not sure many who wanted Etienne or any other 1-2 round RB are necessarily saying that either.

 

You are also correct that in the modern NFL the passing game is the priority.

Buffalo has to figure out how to beat KC for the next 5-10 years.

Looking at history playing keep away is a way to do that.

Pressuring the QB is another way to try to do that, or a combination of both.

 

Singletary and Moss are just guys. They are good complimentary pieces, and you need a lot of those to win a Lombardi.

They are not the keep away back who can salt away a game, nor are they dynamic backs who can take a game over in a high scoring affair.

I think a stud back takes pressure off of JA, allows more strategic options to McDermott and company, and is complimentary to

figuring out how to slow down and beat KC.

 

To me a pick at 28-32 is really a second round pick in value, with the added bonus of controlling a player for a 5th year on a rookie deal.

 

Going DE was aok with me, but there was value to taking Etienne at 30 if he fell there.

[Rochesterfan]

 

Another reason to avoid RB in the later part of the 1st round.

 

https://theathletic.com/2592764/2021/05/19/the-cowboys-bills-chiefs-rams-and-seahawks-traded-picks-for-stars-5th-year-options-and-re-thinking-the-nfl-draft/?source=user_shared_article

 

 

Since 2011 when the 5th year option started - No RBs drafted in the bottom half of the first round have had their 5th year option picked up - 0-5 since 2011.  The only other position close is QB with 1-5 and we know QBs are alway over drafted - so these late round QB really are guys that normally would be picked a round or two later- unlike the RBs that in some drafts are the first RBs off the board late in round 1.
 

It is even worse now that the 5th year option rate has been declining for later picks anyway and with the guarantees in place now - the numbers will shrink even more.  It really points to avoiding RBs later in the first round because they provide little value and tend to be gone in 4 years or less.  The value for RBs comes starting in rounds 2-4.

 

Teams should really focus on positions like WR, T, TE, CB, Safety as prime positions late in round 1 as those positions seem to have the most value and the highest hit rate and most players getting 5th year options picked up.

 

Harris at least made a bit of sense as he could be a bell weather RB with both runs and a ton of catches.  ETN is practicing with WRs because they see his only value in the passing game - not as a RB.

[Rochesterfan]

7 minutes ago, ThurmanThomasEnglishMuffin said:

 

Ok, so your argument is that a high pick on a RB is not 'the missing piece' to push this team over the edge next season.

I can understand that, I'm not sure many who wanted Etienne or any other 1-2 round RB are necessarily saying that either.

 

You are also correct that in the modern NFL the passing game is the priority.

Buffalo has to figure out how to beat KC for the next 5-10 years.

Looking at history playing keep away is a way to do that.

Pressuring the QB is another way to try to do that, or a combination of both.

 

Singletary and Moss are just guys. They are good complimentary pieces, and you need a lot of those to win a Lombardi.

They are not the keep away back who can salt away a game, nor are they dynamic backs who can take a game over in a high scoring affair.

I think a stud back takes pressure off of JA, allows more strategic options to McDermott and company, and is complimentary to

figuring out how to slow down and beat KC.

 

To me a pick at 28-32 is really a second round pick in value, with the added bonus of controlling a player for a 5th year on a rookie deal.

 

Going DE was aok with me, but there was value to taking Etienne at 30 if he fell there.

 

Agreed the 5th year option is a bonus - the issue is that for any RB like ETN the 5th year option is nothing.  No team drafting in the bottom half of round 1 has ever used the 5th year option on a RB - it has not happened since the start of 5th year options in 2011.

 

A stud back can do all the things you say, but a RB late in Rd 1 has never been a stud since 2011 - those are found either high up (top 10) or in the later rounds including UDFAs.

 

I was ok with Rousseau and would have loved 1 of the 2 CBs at that spot (position I think they were trading up for) - ETN would not have been value to me - He would of been a luxury short term pick - much like CEH was in KC last year.  A guy that you expect to beat out your UDFA (or 3rd rd picks in Buffalo) and move you to the next level and at the end of the year - the UDFA/other backs put up jut as good of number and overall you offensive game got worse.

[BADOLBILZ]

32 minutes ago, ThurmanThomasEnglishMuffin said:

 

Ok, so your argument is that a high pick on a RB is not 'the missing piece' to push this team over the edge next season.

I can understand that, I'm not sure many who wanted Etienne or any other 1-2 round RB are necessarily saying that either.

 

You are also correct that in the modern NFL the passing game is the priority.

Buffalo has to figure out how to beat KC for the next 5-10 years.

Looking at history playing keep away is a way to do that.

Pressuring the QB is another way to try to do that, or a combination of both.

 

Singletary and Moss are just guys. They are good complimentary pieces, and you need a lot of those to win a Lombardi.

They are not the keep away back who can salt away a game, nor are they dynamic backs who can take a game over in a high scoring affair.

I think a stud back takes pressure off of JA, allows more strategic options to McDermott and company, and is complimentary to

figuring out how to slow down and beat KC.

 

To me a pick at 28-32 is really a second round pick in value, with the added bonus of controlling a player for a 5th year on a rookie deal.

 

Going DE was aok with me, but there was value to taking Etienne at 30 if he fell there.

 

 

 

I think in general most fans have come to realize that drafting a RB in the first round is a no-no.............but they are using the "final piece of the puzzle" idea very liberally as an excuse to make an exception. 

 

The problem with saying the #30 is like a second rounder idea is that #30 has a lot more value than #33..........because the team gets a 5th year option on first rounders.    Which is VERY important for players at key positions that can get very expensive.    Even if you hope to sign them to an extension sooner it is a big bargaining chip.    In the case of Josh Allen.........even with a VERY high 5th year option # it is far less expensive to pick up that option than what his aav will be on his next deal.    It provides leverage for the team and impetus for the player to get a deal done.    Being free to walk after year 4 is a gift for players at high dollar positions.

 

I agree that the pick was better used on a high ceiling pass rusher.

[Coach Tuesday]

On 5/25/2021 at 1:30 PM, DrDawkinstein said:

Let me just save you guys a lot of future typing. Even with examples of other teams, and player comparisons, I still would have been happy drafting ETN.

 

At least you're being honest.  And you're not alone - this is pretty much where we are as a society in 2021: 

 

"I'm happy to listen to all of the evidence but I'm not going to let any of it change my gut opinion."

Edited May 26, 2021 by Coach Tuesday

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, Coach Tuesday said:

 

At least you're being honest.  And you're not alone - this is pretty much where we are as a society in 2021: 

 

"I'm happy to listen to all of the evidence but I'm not going to let it change my gut opinion."

 

Oh lord, save the dramatics. We're only talking about opinions regarding a hypothetical NFL draft situation. Not conflating science/fact with opinion.

[Coach Tuesday]

2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Oh lord, save the dramatics. We're only talking about opinions regarding a hypothetical NFL draft situation. Not conflating science/fact with opinion.

 

No "dramatics."  You've been invited to go back and look at the last three decades of RBs being drafted in the first round, especially picks 10-32 - the bust factor is extremely high.  You've been asked to cite examples of specific 1st round backs the Bills passed on who would've helped the team win games.   You've been invited to present statistical support for your take.  You've declined all of this: "let me save you the trouble fellas, I'm gonna stick with my gut."  Good for you, you're an American.

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

No "dramatics."  You've been invited to go back and look at the last three decades of RBs being drafted in the first round, especially picks 10-32 - the bust factor is extremely high.  You've been asked to cite examples of specific 1st round backs the Bills passed on who would've helped the team win games.   You've been invited to present statistical support for your take.  You've declined all of this: "let me save you the trouble fellas, I'm gonna stick with my gut."  Good for you, you're an American.

 

Because that is much like the Roulette Past Results Board at the casino.

 

It provides no real proof or even idea of what will actually happen next. Different players on different teams in different eras. It is only proof of what has happened, not what will happen.

[Coach Tuesday]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Because that is much like the Roulette Past Results Board at the casino.

 

It provides no real proof or even idea of what will actually happen next. Different players on different teams in different eras. It is only proof of what has happened, not what will happen.

 

Sorry but that is complete nonsense.  You can't look at drafting Etienne in Round 1 against other Round 1 RBs because they're completely independent events?  No wonder you're bowing out of the discussion.  That's just about the worst take I've ever seen.

[DrDawkinstein]

3 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

Sorry but that is complete nonsense.  You can't look at drafting Etienne in Round 1 against other Round 1 RBs because they're completely independent events?  No wonder you're bowing out of the discussion.  That's just about the worst take I've ever seen.

 

Your opinion is noted.

 

But you are really close to the old "Dont draft a player from x college or state, because a bunch of other players from there didnt work out"

[FireChans]

15 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

No "dramatics."  You've been invited to go back and look at the last three decades of RBs being drafted in the first round, especially picks 10-32 - the bust factor is extremely high.  You've been asked to cite examples of specific 1st round backs the Bills passed on who would've helped the team win games.   You've been invited to present statistical support for your take.  You've declined all of this: "let me save you the trouble fellas, I'm gonna stick with my gut."  Good for you, you're an American.

Damn bro, Dr D has a family 

[DrDawkinstein]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Damn bro, Dr D has a family 

 

I obviously deserve the targeting for daring to post such controversial and extreme opinions such as:

 

On 5/23/2021 at 10:06 AM, DrDawkinstein said:

 

If ETN ends up a McCaffery talent, added to THIS offense, then we win at least 1 (if not 2) Super Bowls. And when his 5 years are up, we let him walk and draft another RB high.

 

While folks are right to hold the general rule of "dont draft a RB in the 1st", that is more true for regular or even losing teams like we have been in the past. The situation changes for a winning team that has most of the rest of their roster in place. When you have pretty much everything else set, or can address it elsewhere, getting into a cycle of drafting a top-talent RB in the 1st every 5 years isn't the worst place to be.

 

On 5/24/2021 at 8:57 AM, DrDawkinstein said:

 

We arent talking about "organization changing RBs". There are no such thing.

 

We already have our organization changing GM, and organization changing HC, and MOST IMPORTANTLY, our organization changing QB.

 

The skill players we surround him with just help make us that much more dangerous in an Offensive league. Especially a pass-catching RB like ETN. And expecially when the rest of our Offense is already built.

 

You write all these posts like folks are arguing ETN is some savior who is going to lift the Bills out of the dungeon.

 

Nah, son.

 

He's the cherry on top that helps take us from AFC Championship game level to Super Bowl level.

 

Again, you are still arguing from the perspective of the 20 year drought.

 

Need to put all those Paxton Lynches behind you and get with the Process.

 

Stay humble, stay hungry. 😘

 

 

[Coach Tuesday]

9 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Your opinion is noted.

 

But you are really close to the old "Dont draft a player from x college or state, because a bunch of other players from there didnt work out"

 

But that's because a player's college or state don't have any measurable impact on their ability to perform in the NFL, usually (although there have been specific college programs, such as Mack Brown's Texas teams, that were universally bad at prepping players for being professionals).  Whereas investing a premium pick on a non-premium position such as RB is a terrible cap management strategy for the many reasons already cited upthread.  Your BEST CASE scenario is that ETN performs like CMC and (i) takes the ball out of Allen's hands; and (ii) requires a $15M/yr contract.  Neither of those things are good for wins and losses.  You pay a running back premium $$ you then have to justify it by tailoring your offense around him and that hasn't worked in the modern NFL. 

 

Let me ask you this: is it ever a good idea to spend a first round pick on a kicker or long-snapper?  What if they're generationally good?  The answer is, of course, no f'ing way.  RB is not much different. 

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

Let me ask you this: is it ever a good idea to spend a first round pick on a kicker or long-snapper?  What if they're generationally good?  The answer is, of course, no f'ing way.  RB is not much different. 

 

No *****, sherlock. It's even more obvious now that you didnt actually read any of my posts. I've said that much at least twice in this thread.

Edited May 26, 2021 by DrDawkinstein

[Coach Tuesday]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

No *****, sherlock. It's even more obvious now that you didnt actually read any of my posts. I've said that much at least twice in this thread.

 

You did, but then you argued that previous results have no bearing on the future.  And I don't see how the two positions square with each other.