Stat predictions for JA and Diggs

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, BruceVilanch said:

Came across this on bleacher report and they are very bullish on Josh and Diggs  this year:

 

Allen established himself as one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the NFL in 2020. 

In addition to his 4,500-yard passing season, Allen added 421 rushing yards, which was the lowest total of his career. He led the Bills with eight rushing scores as well. 

Allen's rushing-yard total may not have been as high as previous years, but he was just seven carries shy of tying his career high of 109 attempts that was set in 2019.

With Emmanuel Sanders joining Diggs inside a loaded wide receiver room, Allen should have more incentive to air the ball out, instead of searching for yards on the ground. 

Allen attempted 572 passes inside Brian Daboll's offense, and with another experienced wide out in tow and an extra game to be played, he should go over 600 passes thrown.

If that is the case, Allen could make a push toward 5,000 passing yards, which is not as stunning of an achievement now as it may have been a few years ago with more emphasis on the passing game and the 17-game schedule in place. 

Allen averaged 11.5 yards per catch and 7.9 yards per attempt in 2020. If he increases those averages by throwing at a higher rate, he should eclipse that mark in one of the final two contests. 

Stat Prediction: 5,100 passing yards, 40 touchdown passes; 450 rushing yards, 8 touchdowns

 

 

Diggs led the NFL with 127 receptions and 1,525 receiving yards in 2020. 

Even though he was used at a high volume in Minnesota, Diggs cruised past his previous career highs in both statistical categories. 

Prior to 2020, Diggs had a single 100-catch season in 2018 and reached the 1,000-yard plateau in his final two seasons in the NFC North. 

In all but one of his six seasons, Diggs increased his receiving-yard total from the year before. The lone exception came from 2016 to 2017, when he was 55 yards shy of an increase. 

It may seem hard for Diggs to hit 1,526 yards or more in 2021, even with the 17th game in place, since Sanders is now on the roster and Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis and others are deserving of targets. 

The lack of a dominant tight end will help Beasley, Davis and Isaiah McKenzie earn more targets from Allen. Dawson Knox had 24 receptions for 288 yards in 2020. 

If the Bills do not receive a significant increase at tight end, they could utilize Sanders and Beasley across the middle to extend drives and then count on Diggs to beat defenders on the outside. 

Diggs will still be targeted at a high rate, but if the production of other wideouts remains hot, he may not experience a 405-yard year over year surge.

Stat Prediction: 120 receptions, 1,500 yards, 9 touchdowns

 

That's honestly pretty close to what I expect from both of them, it's nice to see them bullish on Josh, I have read on multiple other sites to WaTcH fOr a RegResSion this year, but I don't buy it, I think josh is going to win MVP and I put 100$ on him to do just that, also FWIW they have Moss as our leading back at close to 1k yards. Anyone got any bold stat predictions for this year?

 

 

I don't see Diggs staying healthy with the same volume of hits per game he took last season........he was pretty beat up at the end........it isn't a video game......I don't think it's realistic to expect that again.

 

Hopefully Sanders will absorb a lot of those hits on the short throws and Diggs will average 15+ ypr instead of 12 ypr and get near that 1500 number again with less wear and tear.

[BruceVilanch]

5 hours ago, Taro Nimbus said:

Unless the Bills are playing catchup in most of their games, I dont see Allen getting near the 4500 mark.  With the addition of Breida, the Bills will try to utilize the ground game more, limiting Allens numbers.  Diggs on the other hand will get about 110 catches with 1200 yards.

We weren't playing catchup much last year and he had 4500, and we have an extra game now, so I don't understand your logic.

[machine gun kelly]

10 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

I bet you're right.

So do I.  He’s been on a winning team with the 49ers two years ago that has one of the deeper RB group in the NFL when they went to the SB.

 

Moss may improve, but it’s a stretch to make the claim the author made on Moss.

5 hours ago, BruceVilanch said:

We weren't playing catchup much last year and he had 4500, and we have an extra game now, so I don't understand your logic.

 

I don’t either which made it easier to defend the run as other teams were playing from behind against us for most of the year in 2020.  That feeds into our strength in our secondary vs. the run.  It will be interesting if we play with a lead again how these bigger guys on our D Line manage the rush as they will get lots of opportunities.

 

Oh, and Bruce, thanks as always for the find.  You’re a good egg.

Edited May 20, 2021 by machine gun kelly

[mjt328]

12 hours ago, Allen2Diggs said:

I think their numbers will be a little less eye-popping this year because we will run the ball a bit more and Sanders and Davis will get more passes thrown their way. I also think our defense will have a rebound year, taking some pressure off of our offense.

 

I was actually going to say the same thing.

 

The Bills are going to strive for more balance this year.  You can tell by the way Beane/McDermott talk.  One of the focus points will be on improving the run blocking, getting the backs more involved and exposing our QB to less hits.  I still think we are pass-heavy, but it won't be as drastic as 2020.  

 

The losses on the D-Line and injuries at Linebacker hurt us more than anyone expected last season.  With Star Lotulelei back, some young additions to the pass rush and everyone (hopefully) healthy, I also expect our defense to have a nice rebound.  At the least, opponents shouldn't be able to run the ball as well.

 

My hope is that we go into the 4th Quarter most weeks with the game in hand, and we can just let the run-game and defense finish the job.

 

7 hours ago, BruceVilanch said:

We weren't playing catchup much last year and he had 4500, and we have an extra game now, so I don't understand your logic.

 

You are correct.  They weren't playing catch-up.  

But they did always seem to let the opponent back into games in the second half (specifically the third quarter).

 

Not being able to run effectively (and chew clock), combined with the defense struggling - those were the main reasons we kept throwing and throwing late in games.

 

[loyal2dagame]

9 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Huh? They aren't suddenly going to start running the ball when they have leads nonstop.

 

The Bills throw the ball even when leading. It's 2021, teams are still throwing the ball. Allen breaks 5K yards, mostly because of the 17th game.

Unless the Bills are fighting for a playoff spot or the division,  I can't see Allen playing more than 1 quarter in game 17. So if he breaks 5k, he'll have to do it by game 16 or have 4800 or more going into game 17 to get close

[SF Bills Fan]

I think that with the addition of the extra game, we will see similar stats to last year. I don't expect a drop off.  Everyone knew that Allen was going to throw to Diggs pretty consistently last year and nobody was able to stop it. It'll be the same this year. 

[ThurmanThomasEnglishMuffin]

7 minutes ago, SF Bills Fan said:

I think that with the addition of the extra game, we will see similar stats to last year. I don't expect a drop off.  Everyone knew that Allen was going to throw to Diggs pretty consistently last year and nobody was able to stop it. It'll be the same this year. 

 

I agree. With the 17th game, comparing stats across season becomes meaningless. Even if there is a bit more of a run-pass balance there is an additional game thrown in.

[Big Turk]

21 minutes ago, ThurmanThomasEnglishMuffin said:

 

I agree. With the 17th game, comparing stats across season becomes meaningless. Even if there is a bit more of a run-pass balance there is an additional game thrown in.

 

They will need to start comparing per game averages

[ThurmanThomasEnglishMuffin]

35 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

They will need to start comparing per game averages

 

Agree 100%. I would not be surprised to see a slight dip in passing/ receiving yards per game, and a slight increase in rushing yards from the offense this year.

 

I also think the 17 game season keeps more teams alive late in the season, and jockeying for early round playoff seeding, so the 17th game will not necessarily be a throw away.

[947]

We have too many bad weather games every year for 5000 yards to be realistic. 40 TD could happen, but it'd have to front-loaded with some 4-5 TD games in the first 6 weeks.

[Jay_Fixit]

20 hours ago, Process said:

If everyone stays healthy I can't see Diggs replicating what he did last year. We are too deep at WR. Something like Diggs 1300 Davis 900 Beas 800 Sanders 600. 

 

Josh will have a huge year but don't expect to see him break any yardage or TD records. Our defense won't be bad enough and I expect plenty of blowouts this year. 

I mean, there’s an extra game. So I will actually expect it.

[Beast]

5 hours ago, 947 said:

We have too many bad weather games every year for 5000 yards to be realistic. 40 TD could happen, but it'd have to front-loaded with some 4-5 TD games in the first 6 weeks.

 

Name 5 bad weather games we've recently had.

[without a drought]

5 hours ago, 947 said:

We have too many bad weather games every year for 5000 yards to be realistic. 40 TD could happen, but it'd have to front-loaded with some 4-5 TD games in the first 6 weeks.

40 TDs in 17 games is only 2.35 a game.

[947]

14 hours ago, Beast said:

 

Name 5 bad weather games we've recently had.

I'm counting high wind games, I think we had 4 last year.

 

13 hours ago, without a drought said:

40 TDs in 17 games is only 2.35 a game.

Damn, I forgot about the extra game. It's much more likely in 17.

[ghostwriter]

169 tgts 102 catches 1,413yds 13.9avg 13TDs