Highest inflation since...

[B-Man]

https://pjmedia.com/spengler/2021/05/12/inflation-is-the-issue-that-will-topple-the-democrats-n1446407

 

 

 Inflation Is the Issue That Will Topple the Democrats.

 

The bond market’s measure of expected inflation – the difference between the yield of ordinary Treasuries and the yield of inflation-indexed Treasuries – jumped to 2.82% after the CPI announcement. That’s a hair below the all-time high for this measure of inflation expectations in March 2005.

 

The Federal Reserve continues to pump trillions of dollars of liquidity into the US economy by purchasing US Treasury securities, financing most of the US budget deficit, now running at a peacetime record of 15% of gross domestic product (GDP).

 

That leaves the Fed painted into a corner. If it raises interest rates to suppress inflation, the cost of financing the deficit will rise drastically. If it does nothing, eventually the market will force interest rates up, with the same effect.

 

Federal payments now make up 34% of all personal spending in the US, an all-time record. Ultimately the Treasury will have to cut back, leading to a sharp reduction in spending and an economic recession.

 

 

Mister, we could use a man like Paul Volcker again.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/09/paul-volcker-the-carter-reagan-fed-chairman-who-beat-inflation-dies-at-92.html

[ComradeKayAdams]

On 5/12/2021 at 2:29 PM, 716er said:

Indeed - to say not even close to a basic fact like you mention is a good indication one is part of the cult. 

 

To blame inflation on a single entity without the context of a pandemic is Dolphins fan logic. You'd have to be dumb as ***** to be a Dolphins fan. 

 

It’s the cult of free market fundamentalism. We could use many words and many paragraphs to explain what’s happening with inflation, but my experiences with a similar cult here last year (see: “Global warming err Climate change HOAX” thread; pages 324-334; author: ComradeKayAdams) revealed to me that very few people on political sub-forums of sports message boards read or comprehend what is not posted in meme form, one-line joke form, or corporate media hot take form. And there unfortunately isn’t a crayon font available at Two Bills Drive. So all you can do, really, is make a list like this one and pray that your readers are taking their Concerta:

 

1. Much of the observed inflation is best explained by supply perturbations (mostly in energy and in raw materials that we see trickling down to food) as the economy is attempting to open back up to pre-pandemic levels.

2. If you look at the phenomenon of built-in inflation from pre-pandemic projections to now, we are approximately on track with what was expected (~2% regular growth in consumer prices). We’ve had a recent spike in inflation percentages, but that can be interpreted as a self-correction from last year’s unexpected drop.

3. We can revisit prices toward the end of summer and early fall as our economy returns to “normal.” If inflation is still problematic by that time, then yes, it would be reasonable to begin exploring monetary policy measures like raising interest rates and restraining the money supply.

4. Comparisons with 1970’s stagflation…I don’t even know where to begin. Maybe just sit back and bask in the heat from the politically charged hot takes? My favorite is that Biden’s $1400 stimulus checks are causing this. What are yours? Do tell…

5. No, I can’t even imagine what the debates are like on our AFC East division rivals’ political forums! I’m sure the Dolphins ones are bad, but I bet the Jets ones are the worst! Have you ever heard two Strong Islanders communicate with each other on politics?! They make this place look like Chomsky versus Buckley, even with our handicap of brain damage from Drought Era-induced alcoholism and folding table mishaps.

 

On 5/12/2021 at 2:30 PM, Chef Jim said:

President?  Nah that would be sates that closed businesses due to lock downs.  

 

Oh and BTW how does short term unemployment effect inflation?  I'll give you a clue. It's typically an inverse relationship.  

 

I appreciate a Phillips curve reference as much as the next gal, but it does nothing to discredit ALF’s first sentence. You can have a supply contraction from supply shocks, reduced demand from higher unemployment, and still have inflation. For one, the degrees to which each effect are occurring matters.

 

On 5/12/2021 at 2:47 PM, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

If not buying partisan hogwash is a cult I’m in. The fed literally said significant inflation was direct risk of additional stimulus, but they weren’t going to worry about it. 

This is 100% correct

 

Yes, of course. The Fed was referring to demand-pull inflationary effects. They said they weren’t going to worry about it because the positives of the government stimulus on the economy outweigh the negatives. Most governments around the world have done WAY more economic stimulus during the pandemic than we have and are not panicking. Again, this all comes back to free market fundamentalism and its grip on the American psyche. That, and the need to score quick political points on the other team because of blind partisanship. I hate how right-wingers are making me temporarily come to the defense of Joe Biden, by the way…

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

18 minutes ago, ComradeKayAdams said:

 

It’s the cult of free market fundamentalism. We could use many words and many paragraphs to explain what’s happening with inflation, but my experiences with a similar cult here last year (see: “Global warming err Climate change HOAX” thread; pages 324-334; author: ComradeKayAdams) revealed to me that very few people on political sub-forums of sports message boards read or comprehend what is not posted in meme form, one-line joke form, or corporate media hot take form. And there unfortunately isn’t a crayon font available at Two Bills Drive. So all you can do, really, is make a list like this one and pray that your readers are taking their Concerta:

 

1. Much of the observed inflation is best explained by supply perturbations (mostly in energy and in raw materials that we see trickling down to food) as the economy is attempting to open back up to pre-pandemic levels.

2. If you look at the phenomenon of built-in inflation from pre-pandemic projections to now, we are approximately on track with what was expected (~2% regular growth in consumer prices). We’ve had a recent spike in inflation percentages, but that can be interpreted as a self-correction from last year’s unexpected drop.

3. We can revisit prices toward the end of summer and early fall as our economy returns to “normal.” If inflation is still problematic by that time, then yes, it would be reasonable to begin exploring monetary policy measures like raising interest rates and restraining the money supply.

4. Comparisons with 1970’s stagflation…I don’t even know where to begin. Maybe just sit back and bask in the heat from the politically charged hot takes? My favorite is that Biden’s $1400 stimulus checks are causing this. What are yours? Do tell…

5. No, I can’t even imagine what the debates are like on our AFC East division rivals’ political forums! I’m sure the Dolphins ones are bad, but I bet the Jets ones are the worst! Have you ever heard two Strong Islanders communicate with each other on politics?! They make this place look like Chomsky versus Buckley, even with our handicap of brain damage from Drought Era-induced alcoholism and folding table mishaps.

 

 

I appreciate a Phillips curve reference as much as the next gal, but it does nothing to discredit ALF’s first sentence. You can have a supply contraction from supply shocks, reduced demand from higher unemployment, and still have inflation. For one, the degrees to which each effect are occurring matters.

 

 

Yes, of course. The Fed was referring to demand-pull inflationary effects. They said they weren’t going to worry about it because the positives of the government stimulus on the economy outweigh the negatives. Most governments around the world have done WAY more economic stimulus during the pandemic than we have and are not panicking. Again, this all comes back to free market fundamentalism and its grip on the American psyche. That, and the need to score quick political points on the other team because of blind partisanship. I hate how right-wingers are making me temporarily come to the defense of Joe Biden, by the way…

I do enjoy the satirical irony of a communist lecture on how capitalism and economics work. It’s cute, along with the diatribe of self affirmation which demonstrates a massive lack of self awareness, while simultaneously promoting a shoddy pseudo science understanding of fundamental economics. 

 

I was looking for a comedy on TV without luck. Thankfully this post was here. 
 

Many thanks.. 

[Doc]

4 hours ago, B-Man said:

 

 

 

 

 

It's not inflation: it's the insurrection.

[ComradeKayAdams]

On 5/16/2021 at 10:11 PM, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

I do enjoy the satirical irony of a communist lecture on how capitalism and economics work. It’s cute, along with the diatribe of self affirmation which demonstrates a massive lack of self awareness, while simultaneously promoting a shoddy pseudo science understanding of fundamental economics. 

 

I was looking for a comedy on TV without luck. Thankfully this post was here. 
 

Many thanks.. 

 

A “shoddy pseudo-scientific” understanding of fundamental economics…really?! You mean the emerging consensus among faculty and grad students at Columbia’s and NYU’s econ departments regarding the current inflation situation, mixed in with some canonical intro macroeconomics material?? Now you’re just being haughty with me. So I guess we’re just two equally haughty people haughtying around on Two Bills Drive, no?

 

Please reread my point #3 above. My argument has been that inflation is multifaceted, that I believe its transient components are the dominant ones for the current situation, and that I will consider monetary policy means to address any long-term components if the inflation data persists intolerably throughout the summer. In other words: I will be perfectly happy to admit that my initial hypothesis was wrong, depending on new data that better informs us on how the real world is functioning.

 

You, on the other hand, stated in page 2 of this thread that the Biden administration will “try to manipulate and hide inflation data as long as they can.” This is quite a convenient position to take if the economics data doesn’t end up fitting your preferred narrative by August/September! Apparently that dastardly Bureau of Labor Statistics is also in on the latest conspiracy. Do you see what I mean when I say “cult?”

 

I’m not a communist, by the way, even though red does happen to be my favorite color. On political economics issues, I’m ideologically much closer to Donald Trump than I am to a communist.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

23 minutes ago, ComradeKayAdams said:

 

A “shoddy pseudo-scientific” understanding of fundamental economics…really?! You mean the emerging consensus among faculty and grad students at Columbia’s and NYU’s econ departments regarding the current inflation situation, mixed in with some canonical intro macroeconomics material?? Now you’re just being haughty with me. So I guess we’re just two equally haughty people haughtying around on Two Bills Drive, no?

 

Please reread my point #3 above. My argument has been that inflation is multifaceted, that I believe its transient components are the dominant ones for the current situation, and that I will consider monetary policy means to address any long-term components if the inflation data persists intolerably throughout the summer. In other words: I will be perfectly happy to admit that my initial hypothesis was wrong, depending on new data that better informs us on how the real world is functioning.

 

You, on the other hand, stated in page 2 of this thread that the Biden administration will “try to manipulate and hide inflation data as long as they can.” This is quite a convenient position to take if the economics data doesn’t end up fitting your preferred narrative by August/September! Apparently that dastardly Bureau of Labor Statistics is also in on the latest conspiracy. Do you see what I mean when I say “cult?”

 

I’m not a communist, by the way, even though red does happen to be my favorite color. On political economics issues, I’m ideologically much closer to Donald Trump than I am to a communist.

Consensus among acedemic economists? Now I know you’re full of it. 
 

There’s nothing transient about the federal money deluge and other inflationary policy. I honestly wouldn’t care if my salary and retirement account indexed with hyperinflation while my kids future college tuition and healthcare didn’t. And by hide I mean with help of MSM obfuscate reality to their useful idiot sheep. The actual price for a basket of goods is going to be what it will. 

[All_Pro_Bills]

4 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Consensus among acedemic economists? Now I know you’re full of it. 
 

There’s nothing transient about the federal money deluge and other inflationary policy. I honestly wouldn’t care if my salary and retirement account indexed with hyperinflation while my kids future college tuition and healthcare didn’t. And by hide I mean with help of MSM obfuscate reality to their useful idiot sheep. The actual price for a basket of goods is going to be what it will. 

As for the consensus of economists the saying "Its hard to get a man to understand something when their job depends on not understanding it" is applicable. 

 

Lots of factors in play with inflation.  Maybe too complex to explain here.  My bet's on a big increase.  The low inflation cycle is ending.  Everything is cyclical but over time the human mind convinces itself that everything is linear.  A trend will continue forever in the same direction at the same rate.  Life doesn't work that way.  Fed has run out of rope and runway.  Government debts too big to service.  Treasury department running a Ponzi Scheme.  CPI measure is a joke as most increases are substituted or assumed out.  Real rate is likely double now.  But nobody takes the time to read up on the methodology although its all there to see.  Lots of other factors. 

 

I've made bet in the markets on higher inflation.  So far, so good.  Also, it a good thing lots of people don't agree.  After all, somebody's got to take the other side of the trade as markets are more or less a zero sum game.  

[716er]

People seriously expected gas to be $2 forever?

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

7 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

As for the consensus of economists the saying "Its hard to get a man to understand something when their job depends on not understanding it" is applicable. 

 

Lots of factors in play with inflation.  Maybe too complex to explain here.  My bet's on a big increase.  The low inflation cycle is ending.  Everything is cyclical but over time the human mind convinces itself that everything is linear.  A trend will continue forever in the same direction at the same rate.  Life doesn't work that way.  Fed has run out of rope and runway.  Government debts too big to service.  Treasury department running a Ponzi Scheme.  CPI measure is a joke as most increases are substituted or assumed out.  Real rate is likely double now.  But nobody takes the time to read up on the methodology although its all there to see.  Lots of other factors. 

 

I've made bet in the markets on higher inflation.  So far, so good.  Also, it a good thing lots of people don't agree.  After all, somebody's got to take the other side of the trade as markets are more or less a zero sum game.  

Gold? Oil? What’s your betting strategy? 

[Unforgiven]

13 hours ago, Doc said:

 

It's not inflation: it's the insurrection.

The insurrection, more devastating than the civil war and pearl harbor and 9/11 combined...

...deep in the recesses of mostly empty lefty minds

[All_Pro_Bills]

1 hour ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Gold? Oil? What’s your betting strategy? 

Both actually but at this time I'm adding only to my energy sector plays.    

[T master]

On 5/12/2021 at 10:36 AM, ALF said:

 

That's the mess W and Trump left us with.

 

 

OF F N course it is all his fault WTF ... Every thing in the entire world that has ever went wrong is because of Trump & W !! 

 

Just because gas is now back up to the price it was before 2016 it's not because they shut down the Keystone and it's not because there is a second 2 or 3 Trillion dollar bill in the works has absolutely nothing to do with it today oh and the border thing to that is all because of what Trump did nothing to do with Joe promising easier access to the US but it's all Trump I'm so glad you pointed that out again & again & again !! 

 

But Joe is on it he's gonna fix it all & Kamala is on the border thing too just have faith !! 

[B-Man]

 

 

 

CPI May 2021 jump 5%, fastest pace since summer of 2008

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/10/cpi-may-2021.html

3 hours ago — Consumer prices jump 5% in May, fastest pace since the summer of 2008 ... The reading represented the biggest CPI gain since the 5.3% increase in ...

 

 

U.S. Inflation Is Highest in 13 Years as Prices Surge 5%

https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-inflation-consumer-price-index-may-2021-11623288303

 

 

 

[BillStime]

US STOCKS-S&P 500 hits record high as Wall Street brushes off higher inflation data

 

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Consumer Prices in U.S. Top Forecast, Stoking Inflation Concern 
 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-10/gain-in-u-s-cpi-exceeds-forecasts-fuels-inflation-concern

 

for those useful idiots saying this should be expected, the forecast is what was expected. 

[B-Man]

 

 

Crickets Chirping at White House, Fed as Prices Shoot Up in May

 

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/rick-moran/2021/06/10/crickets-chirping-at-white-house-and-the-fed-as-prices-shoot-up-5-percent-in-may-n1453560

 

 

 

 

[B-Man]

 

 

 

WELCOME BACK, CARTER! 

 

Three Ways Rising Price Inflation Hurts Everyday Americans.

 

As Biden himself warned, “Milton Friedman isn’t running the show anymore.” And we’re all paying for Biden’s rejection of sound economic policies.

 

“The irony is that Biden’s rejection of Friedman’s teachings on money, taxes, and spending may bring about the same circumstances that established Friedman’s preeminence. In a year or two, the American economy and Biden’s political fortunes may look considerably different than when Janet Yellen blurted out the obvious about inflation. Voters won’t like the combination of rising prices and declining assets. Biden’s experts might rediscover that it is difficult to control or stop inflation once it begins. And Milton Friedman will have his revenge.”

 

https://fee.org/articles/3-ways-rising-price-inflation-hurts-everyday-americans/

 

https://freebeacon.com/columns/milton-friedmans-revenge/

 

 

 

[Doc]

More like Milton Berle...

[B-Man]

 

[Big Blitz]

Not during the mid terms.....not during the 2024 election.....no, 2023...because...