Can Patriots challenge with run first offense this year?

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

not this season and may not for seasons to come.

 

the change of the guard began last season and it will be a challenge not only for the patsies but the other two afce teams as well to unseat the afce champs!

[Thurman#1]

IMO this isn't some next-level genius response to the current state of defenses in the NFL today. It's just what teams who don't have a good QB tend to do. And always have.

 

Look at the 2017 Bills. 476 passes and 487 runs with Tyrod behind center. Or the next year when we went 51.6% passing. The next year Allen started to get acceptable and they cranked up the passing a bit more to 52.5%. and last year Allen is excellent, we're killing everyone through the air and they go seriously pass-heavy.

 

The first couple of years here people were complaining how last decade the Bills offense was and how this proved that McDermott was a dinosaur.

 

You don't pass as much when you aren't confident that your QB can consistently be successful in the pass game.

 

If the Pats manage to start doing better at passing, they'll pass more.

 

 

Edited May 8, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Freddie's Dead]

No.

[Mr. WEO]

11 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Bill Belichick's coaching hallmark has always been game planning to identify an opponents' weakness and adjusting his offensive or defensive scheme week to week to exploit those weaknesses.  As offenses have transitioned to pass first philosophies across the league, defenses have begun to adapt by looking for defenders geared more towards stopping the pass.  LBs who have the mobility to cover in the flat seem to be overtaking the prototypical LBs of years past who were run stuffing thumpers.

 

I think Bill is going against the grain and is returning to smash mouth football and trying to build an offense that will take advantage of defenses built to stop the pass.  He doesn't have an elite QB on his roster and he knows he isn't going to win a shootout without Tom Brady under center.  I think he knows that low scoring games are going to give his team as its currently constituted the best chance to win. He wants to run the ball, chew clock, win time of possession, get turnovers on defense, and win games like they did 20 years ago.  He wants to win games 21-17.

 

The loss of Brady forced him to embrace this run first philosophy.  Last season the Patriots were second in the NFL in percentage of running plays at 51.28%.  That strategy can be successful, four of the top five teams in running percentage made the playoffs last year. 

 

1.  Baltimore  55.04%

2. New England  51.28%

3. Tennessee 50.28%

4. Cleveland 47.48%

5. New Orleans 46.95%

 

Bill always seems to have a great O-Line (one of the reasons Brady is still playing at age 64) and last year was no different.  According to PFF the Pats had the 4th ranked O-Line last year and Bill has tried to bolster the O-line even more heading into this season.  I linked below to a recent article about the Pats' 2021 O-line and the PFF O-line rankings from last year.  They will have Wynn and Andrews back for 2021 and they traded for Trent Brown who is a monster during the off season.  As it stands now, the starting O-line in New England is projected to be;

 

LT: Isaiah Wynn
LG: Michael Onwenu
Center:  David Andrews
RG: Shaq Mason
RT: Trent Brown

 

https://boston.cbslocal.com/2021/03/19/andrews-brown-onwenu-wynn-patriots-offensive-line-depth-karras-mason-nfl-free-agency-cam-newton-belichick/

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-final-2020-offensive-line-rankings

 

The O-Line will also be augmented by frequent two TE sets that put more beef on the line and enable the running game.  I expect the majority of their offensive snaps come out of two TE sets this season with their free agent signings of Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith.

 

The Pats used their 4th round pick to add RB Rhamondre Stevenson that Mike Reiss at ESPN described as "A big, physical back whose style sparks thoughts of LeGarrette Blount, the 5-foot-11, 227-pound Stevenson is an intimidating runner."   Stevenson will be joining James White their fantastic receiving back and Damien Harris who had an injury plagued but solid season, ending the season ranked 11th among RBs with an average of 69 yards a game.  There is talk that Stevenson will allow the Pats to move on from Sony Michel who has had trouble staying healthy.  They also have a young back in J.J. Taylor who was injured most of last season who will be back and add depth.  On the whole, it's not a very scary stable of RBs.   I think there is a widely held expectation that the Pats will add a veteran RB sometime this off season as teams cut RBs due to cap and roster concerns.  I was surprised Kerryon Johnson didn't end up in New England.  I'd be curious to know if they made a run at him.

 

Cam is a obviously a solid running QB and adds a real element to their run game.  Even if Cam gives way to Mac Jones at some point in the season, Jones is likely going to be given game plans like Bill gave the young Tom Brady, more of a game control passing strategy, making short high percentage passes just often enough to keep defenses honest and stop them from stacking the box.  It sounds like that type of offense would play to Jones' strength, whose two main attributes are said to be his accuracy and his ability to read a defense at the line of scrimmage and find the weak spot and put the ball there.

 

The two big questions are how successful can this run first strategy be across a 17 game season in today's NFL for New England?  Can they win enough games this way to challenge for the AFCE title and make a deep playoff run?  The other question as Bills' fans is, how will our defense stack up against this run first philosophy?   Run defense has been a weakness at times for McDermott and Frazier's defenses.  Bill knows the best way to beat QBs like Mahomes and Allen is to keep them sitting on the bench.  It will be interesting to see how Belichick's run first gambit plays out this year.

 

 

 

 

How did it work for them last year?  Not very well.  Adding a 4th rounder won't change that.  Neither will some other team's released player.

 

None of those listed 4 top running playoff teams made it out of the Div Champ game.

[NoSaint]

10 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

Definitely a fair point NoSaint.

 

I think that looking at the top five from last season, Baltimore, New England, Tennessee, and Cleveland really were run first offenses and weren't just salting away games with the lead in hand.  Admittedly I don't watch a lot of NFC football to know how the Saints offense looked week to week.

Likewise fair and wasn’t trying to say that was the only reason these teams were high on the list. But I do think it helps skew some of them a little bit there. Even with that only one of them really qualifies as run first and their leading rusher (both yards and attempts) was their qb.
 

with the Saints, they did have a month of taysom and then an injured Brees- but even with that the split was still pass focused. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

“It’s a passing league “

 

 

 

You need Balance  (or the ability of balance)

[Patrick Duffy]

1 hour ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

not this season and may not for seasons to come.

 

the change of the guard began last season and it will be a challenge not only for the patsies but the other two afce teams as well to unseat the afce champs!

And would love to see it last 2 decades just to make it that much sweeter.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Maybe if they play a lot of 20mph wind games this year.

[LabattBlue]

Running game aside, I still think Mac Jones starts opening week, and the Pats make the playoffs. 
 

Cam is a joke of a QB, and I would bet the house that BB does not go with him as #1 this year.  In fact, I don’t even know why BB re-signed him after last years performance. 

[Gugny]

14 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Bill Belichick's coaching hallmark has always been game planning to identify an opponents' weakness and adjusting his offensive or defensive scheme week to week to exploit those weaknesses.  As offenses have transitioned to pass first philosophies across the league, defenses have begun to adapt by looking for defenders geared more towards stopping the pass.  LBs who have the mobility to cover in the flat seem to be overtaking the prototypical LBs of years past who were run stuffing thumpers.

 

I think Bill is going against the grain and is returning to smash mouth football and trying to build an offense that will take advantage of defenses built to stop the pass.  He doesn't have an elite QB on his roster and he knows he isn't going to win a shootout without Tom Brady under center.  I think he knows that low scoring games are going to give his team as its currently constituted the best chance to win. He wants to run the ball, chew clock, win time of possession, get turnovers on defense, and win games like they did 20 years ago.  He wants to win games 21-17.

 

The loss of Brady forced him to embrace this run first philosophy.  Last season the Patriots were second in the NFL in percentage of running plays at 51.28%.  That strategy can be successful, four of the top five teams in running percentage made the playoffs last year. 

 

1.  Baltimore  55.04%

2. New England  51.28%

3. Tennessee 50.28%

4. Cleveland 47.48%

5. New Orleans 46.95%

 

Bill always seems to have a great O-Line (one of the reasons Brady is still playing at age 64) and last year was no different.  According to PFF the Pats had the 4th ranked O-Line last year and Bill has tried to bolster the O-line even more heading into this season.  I linked below to a recent article about the Pats' 2021 O-line and the PFF O-line rankings from last year.  They will have Wynn and Andrews back for 2021 and they traded for Trent Brown who is a monster during the off season.  As it stands now, the starting O-line in New England is projected to be;

 

LT: Isaiah Wynn
LG: Michael Onwenu
Center:  David Andrews
RG: Shaq Mason
RT: Trent Brown

 

https://boston.cbslocal.com/2021/03/19/andrews-brown-onwenu-wynn-patriots-offensive-line-depth-karras-mason-nfl-free-agency-cam-newton-belichick/

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-final-2020-offensive-line-rankings

 

The O-Line will also be augmented by frequent two TE sets that put more beef on the line and enable the running game.  I expect the majority of their offensive snaps come out of two TE sets this season with their free agent signings of Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith.

 

The Pats used their 4th round pick to add RB Rhamondre Stevenson that Mike Reiss at ESPN described as "A big, physical back whose style sparks thoughts of LeGarrette Blount, the 5-foot-11, 227-pound Stevenson is an intimidating runner."   Stevenson will be joining James White their fantastic receiving back and Damien Harris who had an injury plagued but solid season, ending the season ranked 11th among RBs with an average of 69 yards a game.  There is talk that Stevenson will allow the Pats to move on from Sony Michel who has had trouble staying healthy.  They also have a young back in J.J. Taylor who was injured most of last season who will be back and add depth.  On the whole, it's not a very scary stable of RBs.   I think there is a widely held expectation that the Pats will add a veteran RB sometime this off season as teams cut RBs due to cap and roster concerns.  I was surprised Kerryon Johnson didn't end up in New England.  I'd be curious to know if they made a run at him.

 

Cam is a obviously a solid running QB and adds a real element to their run game.  Even if Cam gives way to Mac Jones at some point in the season, Jones is likely going to be given game plans like Bill gave the young Tom Brady, more of a game control passing strategy, making short high percentage passes just often enough to keep defenses honest and stop them from stacking the box.  It sounds like that type of offense would play to Jones' strength, whose two main attributes are said to be his accuracy and his ability to read a defense at the line of scrimmage and find the weak spot and put the ball there.

 

The two big questions are how successful can this run first strategy be across a 17 game season in today's NFL for New England?  Can they win enough games this way to challenge for the AFCE title and make a deep playoff run?  The other question as Bills' fans is, how will our defense stack up against this run first philosophy?   Run defense has been a weakness at times for McDermott and Frazier's defenses.  Bill knows the best way to beat QBs like Mahomes and Allen is to keep them sitting on the bench.  It will be interesting to see how Belichick's run first gambit plays out this year.

 

 

 

 

Well, since the Browns are going to be unbeatable, does it really matter?

 

[Inigo Montoya]

15 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

Well, since the Browns are going to be unbeatable, does it really matter?

 

 

You do have a point there.....  😉

 

[WideNine]

14 hours ago, HOUSE said:

Where can I buy a bleeding Clock ?

 

Well, for NFL clock bleeding look no further than our game against Indy or when the NFL had to close another loophole ol' cloven-hoofed Belichick was exploiting to keep the clock running during penalties:

 https://www.boston.com/sports/new-england-patriots/2020/05/29/bill-belichick-nfl-clock-rule-loophole

 

Otherwise, they do sell something like that on zazzle - of course they sell something like this.

Bleeding fractal wall clock lovingly designed by "DestroyingAngel" 

 

 

 

[billsfan89]

They can win but they won’t be likely to contend given their limitations at QB presently. There are also 2 legit teams in their division. Miami despite their limitations at QB don’t present 2 easy wins for the Pats and the Bills are a complete team with a dynamic QB. So I don’t see the Pats winning more than 11 games and I don’t see them making noise in the playoffs against more dynamic QB’s with good supporting casts.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

18 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Bill Belichick's coaching hallmark has always been game planning to identify an opponents' weakness and adjusting his offensive or defensive scheme week to week to exploit those weaknesses.  As offenses have transitioned to pass first philosophies across the league, defenses have begun to adapt by looking for defenders geared more towards stopping the pass.  LBs who have the mobility to cover in the flat seem to be overtaking the prototypical LBs of years past who were run stuffing thumpers.

 

I think Bill is going against the grain and is returning to smash mouth football and trying to build an offense that will take advantage of defenses built to stop the pass.  He doesn't have an elite QB on his roster and he knows he isn't going to win a shootout without Tom Brady under center.  I think he knows that low scoring games are going to give his team as its currently constituted the best chance to win. He wants to run the ball, chew clock, win time of possession, get turnovers on defense, and win games like they did 20 years ago.  He wants to win games 21-17.

 

The loss of Brady forced him to embrace this run first philosophy.  Last season the Patriots were second in the NFL in percentage of running plays at 51.28%.  That strategy can be successful, four of the top five teams in running percentage made the playoffs last year. 

 

1.  Baltimore  55.04%

2. New England  51.28%

3. Tennessee 50.28%

4. Cleveland 47.48%

5. New Orleans 46.95%

 

Bill always seems to have a great O-Line (one of the reasons Brady is still playing at age 64) and last year was no different.  According to PFF the Pats had the 4th ranked O-Line last year and Bill has tried to bolster the O-line even more heading into this season.  I linked below to a recent article about the Pats' 2021 O-line and the PFF O-line rankings from last year.  They will have Wynn and Andrews back for 2021 and they traded for Trent Brown who is a monster during the off season.  As it stands now, the starting O-line in New England is projected to be;

 

LT: Isaiah Wynn
LG: Michael Onwenu
Center:  David Andrews
RG: Shaq Mason
RT: Trent Brown

 

https://boston.cbslocal.com/2021/03/19/andrews-brown-onwenu-wynn-patriots-offensive-line-depth-karras-mason-nfl-free-agency-cam-newton-belichick/

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-final-2020-offensive-line-rankings

 

The O-Line will also be augmented by frequent two TE sets that put more beef on the line and enable the running game.  I expect the majority of their offensive snaps come out of two TE sets this season with their free agent signings of Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith.

 

The Pats used their 4th round pick to add RB Rhamondre Stevenson that Mike Reiss at ESPN described as "A big, physical back whose style sparks thoughts of LeGarrette Blount, the 5-foot-11, 227-pound Stevenson is an intimidating runner."   Stevenson will be joining James White their fantastic receiving back and Damien Harris who had an injury plagued but solid season, ending the season ranked 11th among RBs with an average of 69 yards a game.  There is talk that Stevenson will allow the Pats to move on from Sony Michel who has had trouble staying healthy.  They also have a young back in J.J. Taylor who was injured most of last season who will be back and add depth.  On the whole, it's not a very scary stable of RBs.   I think there is a widely held expectation that the Pats will add a veteran RB sometime this off season as teams cut RBs due to cap and roster concerns.  I was surprised Kerryon Johnson didn't end up in New England.  I'd be curious to know if they made a run at him.

 

Cam is a obviously a solid running QB and adds a real element to their run game.  Even if Cam gives way to Mac Jones at some point in the season, Jones is likely going to be given game plans like Bill gave the young Tom Brady, more of a game control passing strategy, making short high percentage passes just often enough to keep defenses honest and stop them from stacking the box.  It sounds like that type of offense would play to Jones' strength, whose two main attributes are said to be his accuracy and his ability to read a defense at the line of scrimmage and find the weak spot and put the ball there.

 

The two big questions are how successful can this run first strategy be across a 17 game season in today's NFL for New England?  Can they win enough games this way to challenge for the AFCE title and make a deep playoff run?  The other question as Bills' fans is, how will our defense stack up against this run first philosophy?   Run defense has been a weakness at times for McDermott and Frazier's defenses.  Bill knows the best way to beat QBs like Mahomes and Allen is to keep them sitting on the bench.  It will be interesting to see how Belichick's run first gambit plays out this year.

 

 

 

 

It would be ignorant to ever dismiss New England while that POS is still in charge (Kraft or Bellichick, take your pick.) I could see them eaking out 10 wins in a 17 game season. In 2019, the Pats defense was #1 in points allowed leading the #2 defense (Buffalo) by a field goal. I feel like the Patriots (along w/ the Bills defense) will rebound back to old form. They dealt with a fair amount of injuries and Gilmore had an off-year. BB is a defensive coach at heart and I don't see him having a crappy unit 2 years in a row. He will single out the problem and correct it.

 

With Mac Jones, I feel the Pats can run a mistake-free, ball-control offense that emphasizes high-percentage passes, screens, a heavy dose of running, and a lot of trickery. The main upgrade is Cam is no longer the guy.

 

All-in-all, I feel like they won't challenge Buffalo for the AFC East. At best, they Duke it out w/ the Fins for a precious wild card slot and beat up each other in the regular season. Miami is the team to fear though.

[TBBills]

Patriots should work on getting above .500 before people really start to care if they are back again

 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

34 minutes ago, TBBills said:

Patriots should work on getting above .500 before people really start to care if they are back again

 

 

 

They've been above .500 for the past 2 decades minus last season. That's an anomaly as far as I'm concerned. What's scarier is they did it w/ the bloated remains of whatever Cam Newton used to be. 

 

I can only wonder what other fans think when they come to this board. It must be like some of the Brown's fans I've come in contact w/ lately. Yes, you had a great season and overcame the Steelers monkey (sound familiar,) but can you do it twice in a row? Three times? 🤔

 

Yes, the Bills have Josh Allen, but football is still a team sport despite everything the NFL is trying to do to change that. And when you lack a QB, it's a huge plus to have a HOF coach w/ a specialty in defense and building stout lines on both sides of the ball.

 

You can laugh all u want, but in my book the Pats are still the team to beat until they aren't. I've seen the Bills implode too many times and it's going to take more than 2 playoff wins in 25 years to change that fear.

 

 

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

15 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Challenge for the final wild card spot? Sure. They went 7-9 with a siginifanctly weaker roster in 2020, not at all inconceivable that they add a couple of wins playing a third placed schedule, against easier out of conference opposition than 2020. Challenge to make a Superbowl run? Nah. They are still not good enough.

 

 

Who cares if they make the playoffs, really?   All that matters is how the Bills perform against the Patriots.    They were lucky to escape the first game vs. NE last year when Zimmer stripped Cam as the Pats were plowing over the Bills D toward a game winning TD.    The Bills finally began to outplay the Pats for the first time in 8 games under McDermott in the second quarter of the game in Foxboro.     As you said, their roster is much improved.   The Bills under McD usually play their worst ball versus the Pats.........if the Bills flip that around then it shouldn't matter what else NE does.

[Don Otreply]

The only thing I see the pats challenging this year is being caught cheating again..., it’s been around four ish years since the last time, so the are due to get popped again, note the league has done nothing about them being caught filming another teams sidelines this last time either..., 

[without a drought]

How many rushing yards and field goals does it take to outscore the Bills, Chiefs, Browns etc...

 

I'm thinking a bunch.

[TBBills]

1 hour ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

 

 

They've been above .500 for the past 2 decades minus last season. That's an anomaly as far as I'm concerned. What's scarier is they did it w/ the bloated remains of whatever Cam Newton used to be. 

 

I can only wonder what other fans think when they come to this board. It must be like some of the Brown's fans I've come in contact w/ lately. Yes, you had a great season and overcame the Steelers monkey (sound familiar,) but can you do it twice in a row? Three times? 🤔

 

Yes, the Bills have Josh Allen, but football is still a team sport despite everything the NFL is trying to do to change that. And when you lack a QB, it's a huge plus to have a HOF coach w/ a specialty in defense and building stout lines on both sides of the ball.

 

You can laugh all u want, but in my book the Pats are still the team to beat until they aren't. I've seen the Bills implode too many times and it's going to take more than 2 playoff wins in 25 years to change that fear.

 

 

 

 

The only thing that matters was last season. Get out of the past.

Edited May 8, 2021 by TBBills