Doc Posted May 3 Posted May 3 2 hours ago, All_Pro_Bills said: My contention is when you work with statistical models you can generate any result you'd like based on your assumptions and inputs. As these job numbers are not a count but rather a number derived from a model, I contend they suffer from political bias. I base my theory on some work experience applying statistical modeling and looking at historical trends where the BLS monthly job numbers correlated with statistical significance with other job market metrics then inexplicably diverged from almost all of them without explanation. Something changed. If in my past efforts had we encountered a sudden divergence in one key metric out of several key metrics that had for years followed a similar trend we would have performed a full assessment of the model, our assumptions, our input data and sources, assessed the possibly of exceptional or new circumstances, and identified the source of the divergence and taken action to address it. This. If they were true numbers, they wouldn't be revised up or down months later.
sherpa Posted May 3 Posted May 3 2 hours ago, All_Pro_Bills said: My contention is when you work with statistical models you can generate any result you'd like based on your assumptions and inputs. As these job numbers are not a count but rather a number derived from a model, I contend they suffer from political bias. I base my theory on some work experience applying statistical modeling and looking at historical trends where the BLS monthly job numbers correlated with statistical significance with other job market metrics then inexplicably diverged from almost all of them without explanation. Something changed. If in my past efforts had we encountered a sudden divergence in one key metric out of several key metrics that had for years followed a similar trend we would have performed a full assessment of the model, our assumptions, our input data and sources, assessed the possibly of exceptional or new circumstances, and identified the source of the divergence and taken action to address it. I get all that, but the BLS Report, and the ADP Report usually differ based on their modelling, but there has been no suggestion from the financial market world that they are cooked by politics. They are revised, as are almost all economic reports, but that, again, is not influenced by politics. 1
4th&long Posted May 4 Posted May 4 21 hours ago, B-Man said: Keep lying about the "recovery" U.S. job growth totaled 175,000 in April, much less than expected, while unemployment rose to 3.9% https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/03/jobs-report-april-2024-us-job-growth-totaled-175000-in-april.html https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm Nice spin. 40th straight month of growth! Unemployment still 2% lower than when trump was in office! People see thru this bull *****. The stock market is doing great? why is that? figure that out and you will have your answer to why prices are so high. I laugh because people think if the re elect trump prices will automatically drop. But keep your head in the sand, that will solve everything.
daz28 Posted May 9 Posted May 9 2 hours ago, B-Man said: Corporate greed is not a lie. Neither is the fact that artificially high fuel prices are causing inflation. I know it's easy to just blame Biden, but you'd be better served to look at the real culprits
Biden is Mentally Fit Posted May 9 Posted May 9 5 minutes ago, daz28 said: Corporate greed is not a lie. Neither is the fact that artificially high fuel prices are causing inflation. I know it's easy to just blame Biden, but you'd be better served to look at the real culprits Tell us more about how artificially high fuel prices are causing inflation. Please.
daz28 Posted May 9 Posted May 9 (edited) 17 minutes ago, JDHillFan said: Tell us more about how artificially high fuel prices are causing inflation. Please. Ever heard of OPEC? Do you even have a basic understanding of how oil is traded? I seriously hope you don't think that they have the drills and refineries going full blast all the time, attempting to keep prices low for us? Guess how your goods are transported? Fuel maybe?? You keep believing that the government is holding them back from supplying you with cheap gas, because that's EXACTLY what they want you to think. I'm not here to make the uneducated the educated, but I will put someone on the right trail. Besides, trump likes you uneducated. Edited May 9 by daz28
AlBUNDY4TDS Posted May 9 Posted May 9 Just now, daz28 said: Ever heard of OPEC? Do you even have a basic understanding of how oil is traded? I seriously hope you don't think that they have the drills and refineries going full blast all the time, attempting to keep prices low for us? Guess how your good are transported? Fuel maybe?? You keep believing that the government is holding them back from supplying you with cheap gas, because that's EXACTLY what they want you to think. I'm not here to make the uneducated the educated, but I will put someone on the right trail. Besides, trump likes you uneducated. Evey time you bring up Trump, I immediately discredit your post, should find a different hobby. It's been almost 4 years. The mess is all on Biden now.
Biden is Mentally Fit Posted May 9 Posted May 9 1 minute ago, daz28 said: Ever heard of OPEC? Do you even have a basic understanding of how oil is traded? I seriously hope you don't think that they have the drills and refineries going full blast all the time, attempting to keep prices low for us? Guess how your goods are transported? Fuel maybe?? You keep believing that the government is holding them back from supplying you with cheap gas, because that's EXACTLY what they want you to think. I'm not here to make the uneducated the educated, but I will put someone on the right trail. Besides, trump likes you uneducated. Nonstop pumping of money into the economy is not a factor I take it. It’s all OPEC and Putin’s price hike. Meanwhile the president declares people “have the money” and goes after Big Candy Bar. Fingers crossed that Biden is not so powerless in his next term. Sorry for triggering you.
sherpa Posted May 9 Posted May 9 6 minutes ago, daz28 said: Ever heard of OPEC? Do you even have a basic understanding of how oil is traded? I seriously hope you don't think that they have the drills and refineries going full blast all the time, attempting to keep prices low for us? Guess how your goods are transported? Fuel maybe?? You keep believing that the government is holding them back from supplying you with cheap gas, because that's EXACTLY what they want you to think. I'm not here to make the uneducated the educated, but I will put someone on the right trail. Besides, trump likes you uneducated. Oh my. 1
All_Pro_Bills Posted May 9 Posted May 9 Just now, JDHillFan said: Nonstop pumping of money into the economy is not a factor I take it. It’s all OPEC and Putin’s price hike. Meanwhile the president declares people “have the money” and goes after Big Candy Bar. Fingers crossed that Biden is not so powerless in his next term. Sorry for triggering you. Who was it again that killed the Keystone pipeline on day one of his administration? Hint: it wasn't Trump.
daz28 Posted May 9 Posted May 9 (edited) 9 minutes ago, AlBUNDY4TDS said: Evey time you bring up Trump, I immediately discredit your post, should find a different hobby. It's been almost 4 years. The mess is all on Biden now. The president doesn't have much if any control over oil prices. In a different post today, you'll see that I showed how Bush, Obama, trump, and Biden all played along with big oil. It's just surprising that trump was so brazen about his $1 billion bribe. Usually, they try to keep it on the dl. You LITERALLY have TDS in your name, so I'll take that with a grain of salt. Edited May 9 by daz28
AlBUNDY4TDS Posted May 9 Posted May 9 1 minute ago, daz28 said: The president doesn't have much if any control over oil prices. In a different post today, you'll see that I showed how Bush, Obama, trump, and Biden all played along with big oil. It's just surprising that trump was so brazen about his $1 billion bribe. Usually, they try to keep it on the dl Man, you just can't help yourself. Tds is real. 1
daz28 Posted May 9 Posted May 9 5 minutes ago, JDHillFan said: Nonstop pumping of money into the economy is not a factor I take it. It’s all OPEC and Putin’s price hike. Meanwhile the president declares people “have the money” and goes after Big Candy Bar. Fingers crossed that Biden is not so powerless in his next term. Sorry for triggering you. That's also a factor, but ALL the fiscal hawks are dead. Name the last president that didn't throw money around? Also, Congress sets and pays the budget, not the executive. I'm far from triggered. 6 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said: Who was it again that killed the Keystone pipeline on day one of his administration? Hint: it wasn't Trump. A google search will give you a plethora of sources on the impact the Keystone Pipeline cancelling had/would have had on global energy costs. That nonsense died with the last political cycle.
daz28 Posted May 9 Posted May 9 12 minutes ago, AlBUNDY4TDS said: Man, you just can't help yourself. Tds is real. So is Al Bundy. I'm sorry if my dislike of trump is disquieting to you. If it makes you happier, I'm not a Biden fan either.
AlBUNDY4TDS Posted May 9 Posted May 9 15 minutes ago, daz28 said: So is Al Bundy. I'm sorry if my dislike of trump is disquieting to you. If it makes you happier, I'm not a Biden fan either. It's not disquieting, it just makes you look like a lunatic.
Biden is Mentally Fit Posted May 10 Posted May 10 2 hours ago, B-Man said: . This is overwhelmingly due to the price of fuel. Effing OPEC! 2
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