Tommy Callahan Posted October 2, 2023 Posted October 2, 2023 1 minute ago, The Frankish Reich said: Revealed preferences. If you are scared about losing your job, about not being able to make ends meet, you don't splurge on vacations and Taylor Swift tickets. Watch what people do, not what they say. https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/americans-are-still-spending-like-theres-no-tomorrow-6a1d307?mod=hp_lead_pos2 Interest rates are up. Inflation remains high. Pandemic savings have shrunk. And the labor market is cooling. Yet household spending, the primary driver of the nation’s economic growth, remains robust. Americans spent 5.8% more in August than a year earlier, well outstripping less than 4% inflation. And the experience economy boomed this summer, with Delta Air Lines reporting record revenue in the second quarter and Ticketmaster selling over 295 million event tickets in the first six months of 2023, up nearly 18% year-over-year. Economists and financial advisers say consumers putting short-term needs and goals above long-term ones is normal. Still, this moment is different, they say. A tough housing market has more consumers writing off something they’d historically save for, while the pandemic showed the instability of any long-term plans related to health, work or day-to-day life. So, they are spending on once-in-a-lifetime experiences because they worry they may not be able to do them later. Crazy how most of its debt spending. https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/ without removing food and energy, its going the wrong way again. https://www.bankrate.com/finance/credit-cards/credit-card-debt-reaches-all-time-high/ Bankruptcies up. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/bankruptcies https://www.abi.org/newsroom/bankruptcy-statistics In 2022 it was averaged that America had 582,462 homeless people I cant imagine how high that is now.
B-Man Posted October 2, 2023 Posted October 2, 2023 Now, why would that be ? 😎 WHEN THIS IS THE ADVICE YOU’RE GETTING FROM A DEMOCRAT ON MSNBC…: Biden should stop focusing on the economy. https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/biden-economy-2024-trump-republicans-rcna117244 1
Tommy Callahan Posted October 2, 2023 Posted October 2, 2023 Record amount of young people living with parents/grandparents because they can't afford to live on their own. and the loyalist keep trying to hype this crap economy.
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted October 2, 2023 Posted October 2, 2023 50 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: Revealed preferences. If you are scared about losing your job, about not being able to make ends meet, you don't splurge on vacations and Taylor Swift tickets. Watch what people do, not what they say. https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/americans-are-still-spending-like-theres-no-tomorrow-6a1d307?mod=hp_lead_pos2 Interest rates are up. Inflation remains high. Pandemic savings have shrunk. And the labor market is cooling. Yet household spending, the primary driver of the nation’s economic growth, remains robust. Americans spent 5.8% more in August than a year earlier, well outstripping less than 4% inflation. And the experience economy boomed this summer, with Delta Air Lines reporting record revenue in the second quarter and Ticketmaster selling over 295 million event tickets in the first six months of 2023, up nearly 18% year-over-year. Economists and financial advisers say consumers putting short-term needs and goals above long-term ones is normal. Still, this moment is different, they say. A tough housing market has more consumers writing off something they’d historically save for, while the pandemic showed the instability of any long-term plans related to health, work or day-to-day life. So, they are spending on once-in-a-lifetime experiences because they worry they may not be able to do them later. you’re not familiar with the roaring 20’s preceding the Great Depression? 1
The Frankish Reich Posted October 2, 2023 Posted October 2, 2023 6 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said: you’re not familiar with the roaring 20’s preceding the Great Depression? Oh, I think we are headed for a recession (not depression). But it seems like most people disagree. You're not familiar with the "nest egg" principle? 1
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted October 2, 2023 Posted October 2, 2023 4 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: Oh, I think we are headed for a recession (not depression). But it seems like most people disagree. You're not familiar with the "nest egg" principle? Personally, extremely so, as a rationale the general public undertakes in anticipation of tougher times to come? - nah 1
PetermansRedemption Posted October 3, 2023 Posted October 3, 2023 14 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said: Revealed preferences. If you are scared about losing your job, about not being able to make ends meet, you don't splurge on vacations and Taylor Swift tickets. Watch what people do, not what they say. https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/americans-are-still-spending-like-theres-no-tomorrow-6a1d307?mod=hp_lead_pos2 Interest rates are up. Inflation remains high. Pandemic savings have shrunk. And the labor market is cooling. Yet household spending, the primary driver of the nation’s economic growth, remains robust. Americans spent 5.8% more in August than a year earlier, well outstripping less than 4% inflation. And the experience economy boomed this summer, with Delta Air Lines reporting record revenue in the second quarter and Ticketmaster selling over 295 million event tickets in the first six months of 2023, up nearly 18% year-over-year. Economists and financial advisers say consumers putting short-term needs and goals above long-term ones is normal. Still, this moment is different, they say. A tough housing market has more consumers writing off something they’d historically save for, while the pandemic showed the instability of any long-term plans related to health, work or day-to-day life. So, they are spending on once-in-a-lifetime experiences because they worry they may not be able to do them later. These are the same people that ask for a bail out when a recession hits too. Unfortunately, the American public cannot be considered a rational actor. 1
Tommy Callahan Posted October 3, 2023 Posted October 3, 2023 6 hours ago, PetermansRedemption said: These are the same people that ask for a bail out when a recession hits too. Unfortunately, the American public cannot be considered a rational actor. No doubt and probably why some are still spending the credit card like its 1999 while still living with mom complaining about not being able to afford the college debt they never put to use. 1
Doc Posted October 3, 2023 Posted October 3, 2023 21 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said: Revealed preferences. If you are scared about losing your job, about not being able to make ends meet, you don't splurge on vacations and Taylor Swift tickets. Watch what people do, not what they say. https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/americans-are-still-spending-like-theres-no-tomorrow-6a1d307?mod=hp_lead_pos2 Interest rates are up. Inflation remains high. Pandemic savings have shrunk. And the labor market is cooling. Yet household spending, the primary driver of the nation’s economic growth, remains robust. Americans spent 5.8% more in August than a year earlier, well outstripping less than 4% inflation. And the experience economy boomed this summer, with Delta Air Lines reporting record revenue in the second quarter and Ticketmaster selling over 295 million event tickets in the first six months of 2023, up nearly 18% year-over-year. Economists and financial advisers say consumers putting short-term needs and goals above long-term ones is normal. Still, this moment is different, they say. A tough housing market has more consumers writing off something they’d historically save for, while the pandemic showed the instability of any long-term plans related to health, work or day-to-day life. So, they are spending on once-in-a-lifetime experiences because they worry they may not be able to do them later. 14 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said: Oh, I think we are headed for a recession (not depression). But it seems like most people disagree. You're not familiar with the "nest egg" principle? So you're taking profligate spending as a sign that people don't think the economy is bad? People will spend what they don't have. That's why credit card debt is tipping $1T for the first time. As for nest egg, 62% of people don't have money to cover a $400 emergency. 1
The Frankish Reich Posted October 3, 2023 Posted October 3, 2023 1 minute ago, Doc said: So you're taking profligate spending as a sign that people don't think the economy is bad? People will spend what they don't have. That's why credit card debt is tipping $1T for the first time. I realize the article is paywalled. Quick summary: some of the people interviewed adopt this view. "Hey, I'm not gonna ever be able to afford a down payment on a million dollar house (e.g., living in an expensive city), so why not eat, drink, and be merry now?" (They're about 30 years old) Others? More of the "we deserved this $10,000 family vacation to Maui even though it'll make it that much harder to accumulate the savings we want for the future." So it's both. But the general point: if you are afraid of not having a job, not being able to support yourself or even more so, your family, I think you don't do these types of things. Conclusion: a lot, lot, lot of people aren't scared of that scenario. Maybe they should be. Maybe we won't really have spending-driven inflation under control until they do.
Doc Posted October 3, 2023 Posted October 3, 2023 16 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: I realize the article is paywalled. Quick summary: some of the people interviewed adopt this view. "Hey, I'm not gonna ever be able to afford a down payment on a million dollar house (e.g., living in an expensive city), so why not eat, drink, and be merry now?" (They're about 30 years old) Others? More of the "we deserved this $10,000 family vacation to Maui even though it'll make it that much harder to accumulate the savings we want for the future." So it's both. But the general point: if you are afraid of not having a job, not being able to support yourself or even more so, your family, I think you don't do these types of things. Conclusion: a lot, lot, lot of people aren't scared of that scenario. Maybe they should be. Maybe we won't really have spending-driven inflation under control until they do. That doesn't say they don't think the economy is bad, just that they're not that smart. 2
The Frankish Reich Posted October 3, 2023 Posted October 3, 2023 5 hours ago, Doc said: That doesn't say they don't think the economy is bad, just that they're not that smart. It used to be that conservatives were the ones with basic economic knowledge. Now? Umm, no. Here it's taken on a Yogi Berra form: I can't buy a house because everybody else wants to buy a house too! It's so crowded now, nobody goes there. And I heard a gem from our "businessman" Vivek at the last debate: "we've got to strengthen the dollar." https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/08/investing/us-dollar-value/index.html Nice talking point from, what, several years ago? If there's a problem in foreign currency values now, it is that the dollar is overvalued, which damages exports. Q. Does a guy like Vivek know this? Or is this Vivek thinking his potential voters are stupid (and being proved correct) because it sounds all scary to say the U.S. dollar is weak?
Doc Posted October 3, 2023 Posted October 3, 2023 19 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: It used to be that conservatives were the ones with basic economic knowledge. Now? Umm, no. Here it's taken on a Yogi Berra form: I can't buy a house because everybody else wants to buy a house too! It's so crowded now, nobody goes there. And I heard a gem from our "businessman" Vivek at the last debate: "we've got to strengthen the dollar." https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/08/investing/us-dollar-value/index.html Nice talking point from, what, several years ago? If there's a problem in foreign currency values now, it is that the dollar is overvalued, which damages exports. Q. Does a guy like Vivek know this? Or is this Vivek thinking his potential voters are stupid (and being proved correct) because it sounds all scary to say the U.S. dollar is weak? What does that have to do with people spending more than they should and being able to afford less than they used to? Again you're not making the point you think you are, i.e. that people don't think the economy is bad. 1
The Frankish Reich Posted October 3, 2023 Posted October 3, 2023 4 hours ago, Doc said: What does that have to do with people spending more than they should and being able to afford less than they used to? Again you're not making the point you think you are, i.e. that people don't think the economy is bad. Let me explain this .... slowly. In the markets, they talk about the Greed vs. Fear index. Right now in people's personal lives, Greed - we deserve this vacation! we deserve these $1600 concert tickets! - is winning. Fear? Fear means putting money under the mattress for when disaster (layoffs, etc.) strikes. The millions of individual economic decisions that make up "the economy."
Doc Posted October 4, 2023 Posted October 4, 2023 2 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said: Let me explain this .... slowly. In the markets, they talk about the Greed vs. Fear index. Right now in people's personal lives, Greed - we deserve this vacation! we deserve these $1600 concert tickets! - is winning. Fear? Fear means putting money under the mattress for when disaster (layoffs, etc.) strikes. The millions of individual economic decisions that make up "the economy." Yeah and greed, with apologies to Gordon Gecko, makes people do stupid things. Which is what I've been saying. Meanwhile the polls show that most think the economy sucks. I don't how slowly I need to explain that to you. 1
Tommy Callahan Posted October 4, 2023 Posted October 4, 2023 13 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said: Let me explain this .... slowly. In the markets, they talk about the Greed vs. Fear index. Right now in people's personal lives, Greed - we deserve this vacation! we deserve these $1600 concert tickets! - is winning. Fear? Fear means putting money under the mattress for when disaster (layoffs, etc.) strikes. The millions of individual economic decisions that make up "the economy." a large group of individuals have been programmed or believe they will be bailed out when the economy tanks. you already have the progressive wing talking about bringing back the child tax check, stimulus for the people and what not. 1
The Frankish Reich Posted October 4, 2023 Posted October 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Tommy Callahan said: a large group of individuals have been programmed or believe they will be bailed out when the economy tanks. you already have the progressive wing talking about bringing back the child tax check, stimulus for the people and what not. And yes, I agree with you on that.
Precision Posted October 4, 2023 Posted October 4, 2023 When an "expert" says soft landing, hang on tight..... “The most likely outcome is that the economy will move forward toward a soft landing.” - San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen in October 2007 1 1
B-Man Posted October 4, 2023 Posted October 4, 2023 The private sector added just 89,000 jobs last month, far below expectations By Alicia Wallace, CNN (CNN) — US employers in the private sector added an estimated 89,000 jobs in September, a much lower total than expected and a potential indication of a sharp pullback in the labor market, payroll processor ADP reported Wednesday. The September tally landed well below economists’ estimates for 153,000 jobs added, as well as August’s upwardly revised total of 180,000 jobs added. It’s the slowest pace of job growth reported by ADP since January 2021. “We are seeing a steepening decline in jobs this month,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, in a statement Wednesday morning. “Additionally, we are seeing a steady decline in wages in the past 12 months.” Annual pay increases for people who remained at their jobs were 5.9%, the slowest gains since October 2021; and were 9.5% for “job changers.” https://www.channel3000.com/news/money/the-private-sector-added-just-89-000-jobs-last-month-far-below-expectations/article_957ae082-e2bc-5328-a5f3-389dcce1fd47.html . 1 1
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