All_Pro_Bills Posted August 2, 2023 Posted August 2, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said: All of these comments show the danger of people living in their respective righty/lefty information bubbles. The quoted items here are all secondary sources with strong political biases. So you're reading spin, not news. https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-downgrades-united-states-long-term-ratings-to-aa-from-aaa-outlook-stable-01-08-2023 Growing government debt burden. This reflects increased spending of course, but also Fitch's analysis that a recession (and decreased tax revenues) is likely. Blame? Both parties. Trump tax cuts and spending, Biden spending. I will say the blame tilts toward Democrats. Medium-term fiscal challenges unaddressed. This is the "pretend Social Security and Medicare solvency isn't a problem." Blame? Both parties. Equally. Erosion of governance. Lots of things going on here, but the immediate cause? The debt ceiling standoff. After all, Fitch is rating bonds to give investors some indication of the likelihood of default, and we came way too close for comfort to default a couple months ago. Blame: heavily weighted toward Republicans, some of whom (Trump) cavalierly said "so let the U.S. government default." Fed tightening. This raises the cost of borrowing, including by the U.S. Government. Blame? Neither party, as the Fed is independent. Was that so hard? Four bullet points. Fair summary. No stupid spin. A couple comments to the second bullet point. I'd suggest we add a couple items to the insolvency watch. First Medicaid. Another is obligations governments at the Federal, State, and Local levels have made to their employees. Upon retirement providing a series of monthly payments in specific amounts until death, sometimes after death if the pension stream can legally transfer to a spouse or domestic partner. Along with this generous health care benefits. Governments have committed the taxpayers to paying these obligations without regard for their ability to do so along with most pension funds being under-funded. The same is true for many private company pension plans. On the third bullet what a federal default might look like would differ significantly from how a private person or a corporation might resolve "bankruptcy". We need to acknowledge the Treasury, unlike you or I when we might get into a cash crunch, has the ability to "print" money. They could simply through edict or legislation "call in" those bonds and pay off the holders 100 cents on the dollar. Of course, that might result in a lack of confidence in the currency. But Washington would not say, sorry you're not getting your money back. So, some additional thought might be helpful for us to understand what a default event could look like and what might be the consequences. Edited August 2, 2023 by All_Pro_Bills 3
The Frankish Reich Posted August 2, 2023 Posted August 2, 2023 20 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said: the Treasury, unlike you or I when we might get into a cash crunch, has the ability to "print" money. They could simply through edict or legislation "call in" those bonds and pay off the holders 100 cents on the dollar. Of course, that might result in a lack of confidence in the currency. But Washington would not say, sorry you're not getting your money back. But that kind of risk is also why Treasuries were downgraded. My general point: far, far too many people get their one-sided view of the news from sites/feeds that exist for the sole purpose of spitting out political hot takes that get clicks. So "Fitch downgrades treasuries" is immediately spun into "Bond rating agencies to Biden: Your Economy is a Wreck." Or from the other side: "Republicans Played With Fire in the Debt Ceiling Crisis, Now We Will All Pay More to Borrow." Too easy. 1
B-Man Posted August 4, 2023 Posted August 4, 2023 NOTHING GOOD: What Do Federal Tax Receipts and Total Receipts Suggest About Recession? Total receipts have fallen three consecutive quarters. Tax receipts have fallen two straight quarters. When tax receipts and total receipts both plunge, the economy is typically in recession. There were false signals in 1985 and 2003. There have also been recessions unconfirmed by plunging receipts so this is admittedly not the greatest of signals. But the tax data and the GDI data align. Plus: “Of the 894,000 rise in employment in January, 810,000 was due to annual benchmark revisions. And the BLS does not say what months were revised, just poof, here you go. Again, we cannot, with strong confidence, suggest these reports portray an accurate picture of either jobs or employment.” https://mishtalk.com/economics/what-do-federal-tax-receipts-and-total-receipts-suggest-about-recession/ Washington can temporarily paper over a bad economy by printing money and spending it on do-nothing “infrastructure” and Green Nude Eel projects, but eventually the truth will out. 1
Tommy Callahan Posted August 4, 2023 Posted August 4, 2023 (edited) I dont know if this was posted yet. but anyone else read about the UAW demanding a 40% raise in Detroit? https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2023/08/03/uaw-demands-46-percent-pay-hike-in-talks-with-detroit-three-automakers/70525605007/ https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/gm-uaw-union/2023/08/04/id/1129661/ They got a point. real wages are down due to inflation. but damn. 20% raise at signing. Maybe they just want their cut for all the hard work getting the corporate candidate elected. Edited August 4, 2023 by Chris farley
B-Man Posted August 7, 2023 Posted August 7, 2023 EVERYTHING IS GOING SWIMMINGLY: Latest Housing Data Are Clear: ‘Bidenomics’ Is Heading Toward a Crash. From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2022, the U.S. housing market experienced one of the most significant increases in housing prices in American history. Data provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis show that over that two-year period, the average sales price of a home skyrocketed more than 36 percent, from $403,900 to a whopping $552,600. For the first time in history, the 12-month increase in home prices topped 15 percent for seven quarters in a row, beginning in the second quarter of 2021. Many current homeowners celebrated the unprecedented rise in housing values, but those rapid increases came with an important caveat: whenever housing prices increase as quickly as they have in recent years, an economic, stock market, and/or housing crash is almost certain to follow. The evidence on this point is well established. In the 1970s, late 1980s, and in the early to mid-2000s, there were similarly large, sustained growths in housing prices. In every case, a large recession followed. And although the rule doesn’t always apply perfectly, it tends to be that the bigger the increase in housing prices is, the harder the economy falls. Washington can paper over a weak economy with funny money — that shows up in places like inflated home prices that make existing owners feel good — but eventually the truth will out. https://www.newsweek.com/latest-housing-data-are-clear-bidenomics-heading-toward-crash-opinion-1816749 . 2
Doc Posted August 7, 2023 Posted August 7, 2023 I'm curious to see what happens when the BRICS meet later this month. 1
Irv Posted August 7, 2023 Posted August 7, 2023 Freaking gas prices going through the roof again. Bidenomics What a ***** joke. 3
Doc Posted August 8, 2023 Posted August 8, 2023 4 hours ago, Irv said: Freaking gas prices going through the roof again. Bidenomics What a ***** joke. Just got gas tonight. $3.48 at BJ's but I have a credit card through them and we save $.15/gal.
SoCal Deek Posted August 8, 2023 Posted August 8, 2023 15 hours ago, Doc said: Just got gas tonight. $3.48 at BJ's but I have a credit card through them and we save $.15/gal. We’re WELL OVER $5.00 per gallon in Southern California. 1 1
TSOL Posted August 9, 2023 Posted August 9, 2023 By the way, while everyone is frothing at the mouth over the trump indictments, is bidenomics working yet? Help me out guys, gas prices are up, food prices are up, banks are sliding and drugmakers are recording record profits. You guys please telle some stories about how bidenomics is working for you. Lift my spirits, please. Cause I'm dyin' here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-inch-lower-banks-slip-after-moodys-downgrade-2023-08-08/
Joe Ferguson forever Posted August 9, 2023 Posted August 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, TSOL said: drugmakers are recording record profits. hmmmm...maybe if the R's didn't kiss big pharma a$$ and allow Medicare to negotiate drug prices, they would go down.
TSOL Posted August 9, 2023 Posted August 9, 2023 1 minute ago, redtail hawk said: hmmmm...maybe if the R's didn't kiss big pharma a$$ and allow Medicare to negotiate drug prices, they would go down. Right I was asking for good news, chicken, tell me how awesome Biden economy is for you. Don't bring me down man
Joe Ferguson forever Posted August 9, 2023 Posted August 9, 2023 10 minutes ago, TSOL said: Right I was asking for good news, chicken, tell me how awesome Biden economy is for you. Don't bring me down man It is good news. the Ohio election makes it more likely D's will clean up in the 24 election and get this done. 1
John from Riverside Posted August 9, 2023 Posted August 9, 2023 On 8/7/2023 at 9:11 AM, B-Man said: EVERYTHING IS GOING SWIMMINGLY: Latest Housing Data Are Clear: ‘Bidenomics’ Is Heading Toward a Crash. From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2022, the U.S. housing market experienced one of the most significant increases in housing prices in American history. Data provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis show that over that two-year period, the average sales price of a home skyrocketed more than 36 percent, from $403,900 to a whopping $552,600. For the first time in history, the 12-month increase in home prices topped 15 percent for seven quarters in a row, beginning in the second quarter of 2021. Many current homeowners celebrated the unprecedented rise in housing values, but those rapid increases came with an important caveat: whenever housing prices increase as quickly as they have in recent years, an economic, stock market, and/or housing crash is almost certain to follow. The evidence on this point is well established. In the 1970s, late 1980s, and in the early to mid-2000s, there were similarly large, sustained growths in housing prices. In every case, a large recession followed. And although the rule doesn’t always apply perfectly, it tends to be that the bigger the increase in housing prices is, the harder the economy falls. Washington can paper over a weak economy with funny money — that shows up in places like inflated home prices that make existing owners feel good — but eventually the truth will out. https://www.newsweek.com/latest-housing-data-are-clear-bidenomics-heading-toward-crash-opinion-1816749 . Why do right wingers keep on posting opinion pieces whenever there is obvious data that it’s not the case Just saying it won’t make it different 14 minutes ago, Irv said: What a mess. We should’ve killed them all right irv? 1 hour ago, redtail hawk said: It is good news. the Ohio election makes it more likely D's will clean up in the 24 election and get this done. It is true, has been true, and will always be true the more people that vote the less the Republicans win The problem with the Republicans as they think that they are America they forget that there’s a whole bunch of people that don’t think like them 1
Irv Posted August 9, 2023 Posted August 9, 2023 6 hours ago, John from Riverside said: Why do right wingers keep on posting opinion pieces whenever there is obvious data that it’s not the case Just saying it won’t make it different We should’ve killed them all right irv? It is true, has been true, and will always be true the more people that vote the less the Republicans win The problem with the Republicans as they think that they are America they forget that there’s a whole bunch of people that don’t think like them Don’t lump me in with racists *****.
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