Biden creates an economic crisis--Unemployment, Inflation, risk of STAGLFATION increasing

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, The Frankish Reich said:

https://www.axios.com/2023/06/29/biden-speech-chicago-bidenomics

 

Republicans biggest fear: the economy will keep humming along, avoiding recession or another bout of inflation, straight through to election day 2024.

There is a perfectly good chance this will happen ...

[I still think a recession is inevitable, but I'm not so sure anymore that it'll hit before November 2024, and the various indicators like the bond markets show a similar confidence in the short term]

That’s sort of true Frank but it’s even more true that it’s the Democrats greatest fear that the economy will keep doing what it’s been doing; which is pretty much going nowhere. All you need to do is look at the polls and you’ll see that the vast majority of Americans aren’t happy with the current stagnation. I’d put it to you that it’s the Democrats who are more desperate for something to change. I’m not sure that any of the so-called ‘experts’ have the slightest clue. 

[The Frankish Reich]

Just now, SoCal Deek said:

That’s sort of true Frank but it’s even more true that it’s the Democrats greatest fear that the economy will keep doing what it’s been doing; which is pretty much going nowhere. All you need to do is look at the polls and you’ll see that the vast majority of Americans aren’t happy with the current stagnation. I’d put it to you that it’s the Democrats who are more desperate for something to change. I’m not sure that any of the so-called ‘experts’ have the slightest clue. 

All true. And that's why no one really knows anything about how the 2024 elections will go. A "soft landing" is now a much more real possibility than it was six months ago, and that would no doubt give the Dems a huge boost. But a recession is (in my estimate) still more likely, with a malaise factor giving rise to a throw the bums out mentality. November 2024 is still 16 months away, who knows where we'll be?

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

That’s sort of true Frank but it’s even more true that it’s the Democrats greatest fear that the economy will keep doing what it’s been doing; which is pretty much going nowhere. All you need to do is look at the polls and you’ll see that the vast majority of Americans aren’t happy with the current stagnation. I’d put it to you that it’s the Democrats who are more desperate for something to change. I’m not sure that any of the so-called ‘experts’ have the slightest clue. 

 

Add in the Kamala Harris factor. She is so disliked and unpopular even with her own party. At this point Biden's mortality has to come into play. The chances he doesn't make another 4 years are pretty good. She taking over scares the majority of the American people.

[SoCal Deek]

4 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

All true. And that's why no one really knows anything about how the 2024 elections will go. A "soft landing" is now a much more real possibility than it was six months ago, and that would no doubt give the Dems a huge boost. But a recession is (in my estimate) still more likely, with a malaise factor giving rise to a throw the bums out mentality. November 2024 is still 16 months away, who knows where we'll be?

The Democrats are not getting a ‘huge boost’ from things staying the way they are. Every poll tells you that. They desperately need things to get better for average Americans. I have no idea why they’re trying to get out ahead of it with a PR campaign on Bidenomics. That isn’t going to work. They either need to enact policies that cure the disease, or hope the rash cures itself over time. 

[B-Man]

 

 

The bottom line.

 

Real Average Weekly Earnings Drop for 26th Straight Month.

 

Newly released data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. As usual under the Biden presidency, it wasn’t good news. Based on the Bureau’s data, the real average weekly earnings for May 2023 went down, once inflation is factored in. That’s a straight 26 months of decrease.

Quote

Real average hourly earnings increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% from May 2022 to May 2023. But, since the average number of hours worked per week fell by 0.9%, real wages earned were 0.7% lower.

 

 

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000012?output_view=pct_12mths

 

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/catherinesalgado/2023/06/13/biden-economy-real-average-weekly-earnings-drop-for-26th-straight-month-n1703052

 

.

[The Frankish Reich]

13 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

The Democrats are not getting a ‘huge boost’ from things staying the way they are. Every poll tells you that. They desperately need things to get better for average Americans. I have no idea why they’re trying to get out ahead of it with a PR campaign on Bidenomics. That isn’t going to work. They either need to enact policies that cure the disease, or hope the rash cures itself over time. 

The Democratic election machine seems to have noticed something (and remember: they're pretty good at this!). There's polling on popular sentiment, and that still shows pessimism about the economy. I'm no economist, but I read a lot on what economists called "revealed preferences." In other words, what people tell you vs. how they actually act. 

 

And here's a couple things:

- the "Greed vs. Fear Index" - this is mostly a stock market measure; are investors (institutional and individual) betting on gains or losses? And it is squarely in the Greed zone now.

- Consumer spending vs. Savings - if people are really (not what they say, what they do) concerned about an uncertain economic future, they save more and spend less. And the trend now? Spend, spend, spend! On the purely anecdotal level, I just got back from a trip to Europe. Packed. To. The. Brim. With. Americans.

 

Biden and the Dems were running away from the economy. It was all fear about abortion rights, fear about Trumpism, etc., etc. I suspect some focus groups have them taking some initial steps in the other direction, trying to turn those revealed preferences into voting booth preferences. It's a dangerous game this early in the season since a spike in inflation or the unemployment rate can undo all of that. But still, it's a thing, and it's happening.

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, The Frankish Reich said:

The Democratic election machine seems to have noticed something (and remember: they're pretty good at this!). There's polling on popular sentiment, and that still shows pessimism about the economy. I'm no economist, but I read a lot on what economists called "revealed preferences." In other words, what people tell you vs. how they actually act. 

 

And here's a couple things:

- the "Greed vs. Fear Index" - this is mostly a stock market measure; are investors (institutional and individual) betting on gains or losses? And it is squarely in the Greed zone now.

- Consumer spending vs. Savings - if people are really (not what they say, what they do) concerned about an uncertain economic future, they save more and spend less. And the trend now? Spend, spend, spend! On the purely anecdotal level, I just got back from a trip to Europe. Packed. To. The. Brim. With. Americans.

 

Biden and the Dems were running away from the economy. It was all fear about abortion rights, fear about Trumpism, etc., etc. I suspect some focus groups have them taking some initial steps in the other direction, trying to turn those revealed preferences into voting booth preferences. It's a dangerous game this early in the season since a spike in inflation or the unemployment rate can undo all of that. But still, it's a thing, and it's happening.

Geeez Frank!

You're not supposed to be in Europe until October when we take over London and Tottenham stadium! 😂

 

As regards your commentary, I don’t doubt that they’re testing the messaging water early to see what sticks. Being pretty well healed myself I don’t doubt that there were tons of Americans in Europe. I suspect that’s because has nobody has gone anywhere in three years. And I know that you and I are in the bubble minority. Most Americans…the vast, vast majority…aren’t going to Europe, and that’s even with the Bills in London. 😉

[Tiberius]

58 minutes ago, TSOL said:

 

 

Because working people need to work two jobs to survive. 

Just like always, right? 

 

What, you want fewer jobs? That's what America should hope for? And you clowns will promise, just swear on the bible that DeSantis will make all workers rich because of tax cuts for the wealthy? 

 

Fart 

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

4 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

The Democratic election machine seems to have noticed something (and remember: they're pretty good at this!). There's polling on popular sentiment, and that still shows pessimism about the economy. I'm no economist, but I read a lot on what economists called "revealed preferences." In other words, what people tell you vs. how they actually act. 

 

And here's a couple things:

- the "Greed vs. Fear Index" - this is mostly a stock market measure; are investors (institutional and individual) betting on gains or losses? And it is squarely in the Greed zone now.

- Consumer spending vs. Savings - if people are really (not what they say, what they do) concerned about an uncertain economic future, they save more and spend less. And the trend now? Spend, spend, spend! On the purely anecdotal level, I just got back from a trip to Europe. Packed. To. The. Brim. With. Americans.

 

Biden and the Dems were running away from the economy. It was all fear about abortion rights, fear about Trumpism, etc., etc. I suspect some focus groups have them taking some initial steps in the other direction, trying to turn those revealed preferences into voting booth preferences. It's a dangerous game this early in the season since a spike in inflation or the unemployment rate can undo all of that. But still, it's a thing, and it's happening.

I’m not certain that the spending issue equals confidence in Biden, Trump or anyone else.  It seems more likely that excessive spending is a habit that many, many, many Americans cannot seem to break. 
 

https://www.bankrate.com/personal-finance/debt/average-american-debt/

 

I do think that the message point(s) of the Biden platform, that is, people were victims of economic malfeasance when they took on student loan debt, plays very well with people that are struggling with debt.  It would not surprise me in the least to learn that the American’s in Poland you referenced borrowed money from a financial institution at 19% to take the trip, took photos on the latest  upgraded iPhone, and googled “status of Student Loan Forgiveness” all on the same trip. 

[BillsFanNC]

17 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

The bottom line.

 

Real Average Weekly Earnings Drop for 26th Straight Month.

 

Newly released data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. As usual under the Biden presidency, it wasn’t good news. Based on the Bureau’s data, the real average weekly earnings for May 2023 went down, once inflation is factored in. That’s a straight 26 months of decrease.

 

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000012?output_view=pct_12mths

 

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/catherinesalgado/2023/06/13/biden-economy-real-average-weekly-earnings-drop-for-26th-straight-month-n1703052

 

.

 

Couple that with an estimated 1 trillion in consumer credit card debt...and rising.

 

Things are great!

 

 

[The Frankish Reich]

https://www.mastercardservices.com/en/reports-insights/economics-institute/travel-industry-trends-2023#:~:text=Travelers are increasingly seeking unique,2019 as of March 2023.&text=The economy's mixed signals create,both leisure and business trips.

 

Again, revealed preferences. In general, travel spending (very highly discretionary, with business travel way down it's mostly leisure travel) way up, spending on "things" down. Willingness to spend (whether savings or borrowing/on credit cards) typically = optimism about the future.

 

Off-topic, but interesting: leading foreign travel destinations for Americans -

1. Mexico. By a lot.

 

We can agree that most Americans, and an overwhelming majority of Republicans, think Mexico isn't even trying to stem migration through its countries by huge groups of Central Americans, Venezuelans, etc. So where's the boycott on travel to Cabo? 

 

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

5 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

https://www.mastercardservices.com/en/reports-insights/economics-institute/travel-industry-trends-2023#:~:text=Travelers are increasingly seeking unique,2019 as of March 2023.&text=The economy's mixed signals create,both leisure and business trips.

 

Again, revealed preferences. In general, travel spending (very highly discretionary, with business travel way down it's mostly leisure travel) way up, spending on "things" down. Willingness to spend (whether savings or borrowing/on credit cards) typically = optimism about the future.

 

Off-topic, but interesting: leading foreign travel destinations for Americans -

1. Mexico. By a lot.

 

We can agree that most Americans, and an overwhelming majority of Republicans, think Mexico isn't even trying to stem migration through its countries by huge groups of Central Americans, Venezuelans, etc. So where's the boycott on travel to Cabo? 

 

Wait—are these the bad boycotts, or the good boycotts?  I need to know before casting my vote. 
 

Cabo was a fun trip.  

[The Frankish Reich]

4 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

Wait—are these the bad boycotts, or the good boycotts?  I need to know before casting my vote. 
 

Cabo was a fun trip.  

It's no different than what I always hear from the right: "Liberals want to boycott travel to Florida over gay rights issues, but they're perfectly fine with taking a safari trip to Kenya, where being gay is a crime." 

Foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of a small mind I guess.

[Big Blitz]

Costs are up for every single business.  

Energy.  
 

Minimum wage increases.  
 

Rent.  
 

Taxes. 
 

 

What they’ve done and what Americans with a brain can see:

 

Shrunk everything.  You’re paying more and getting less.  For literally everything.  From $4 bags of chips 20% smaller to that pathetic scoop of chicken at chipotle.  They put a bunch of lettuce on tho!

 

Increased costs.  You’re paying after taxes and other new fees close to $40 if you buy THREE “value” meals at McDonalds.  Chick Fil A?  That’s borderline unaffordable for what you get - and you notice asking for sauce is like pulling teeth?  They give you one.  
 

They are still hiring “migrants.”  Hotels no longer clean your rooms daily.  They have kept in place a lot of the Covid restrictions to keep costs down - this being one of them.  More remote work, 4 day work weeks, or more part time workers (no benefits) - all impact other business especially in cities - especially the deep blue dumps.  

 

And you the consumer, are absolutely buying everything on credit.  
 

They knew the second they locked down the planet this was a 10 year problem - or deliberate plan to get Americans to consume less.  

[Joe Ferguson forever]

5 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

You’re paying after taxes and other new fees close to $40 if you buy THREE “value” meals at McDonalds.  Chick Fil A?  That’s borderline unaffordable for what you get - and you notice asking for sauce is like pulling teeth?  They give you one.

why do you guys insist on posting verifiable lies?  Go order 3,  2 for $3.29 sandwiches , add fries and drinks and see what the total is.  do it online now and report back

Edited June 29, 2023 by redtail hawk

[B-Man]

4 minutes ago, redtail hawk said:

why do you guys insist on posting verifiable lies?  Go order 3,  2 for $3.29 sandwiches , add fries and drinks and see what the total is.  do it online now and report back

 

 

 

 

[TSOL]

14 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

Costs are up for every single business.  

Energy.  
 

Minimum wage increases.  
 

Rent.  
 

Taxes. 
 

 

What they’ve done and what Americans with a brain can see:

 

Shrunk everything.  You’re paying more and getting less.  For literally everything.  From $4 bags of chips 20% smaller to that pathetic scoop of chicken at chipotle.  They put a bunch of lettuce on tho!

 

Increased costs.  You’re paying after taxes and other new fees close to $40 if you buy THREE “value” meals at McDonalds.  Chick Fil A?  That’s borderline unaffordable for what you get - and you notice asking for sauce is like pulling teeth?  They give you one.  
 

They are still hiring “migrants.”  Hotels no longer clean your rooms daily.  They have kept in place a lot of the Covid restrictions to keep costs down - this being one of them.  More remote work, 4 day work weeks, or more part time workers (no benefits) - all impact other business especially in cities - especially the deep blue dumps.  

 

And you the consumer, are absolutely buying everything on credit.  
 

They knew the second they locked down the planet this was a 10 year problem - or deliberate plan to get Americans to consume less.  

$18.50 for that chipotle burrito, chips and guac, and a drink here in buffalo. 

 

And $4 dollar chips? Are you buying store brand cuz Lays are $5.50-6 here 

[The Frankish Reich]

10 minutes ago, redtail hawk said:

why do you guys insist on posting verifiable lies?  Go order 3,  2 for $3.29 sandwiches , add fries and drinks and see what the total is.  do it online now and report back

People just have more expensive tastes than they used to.

Costco $4.99 rotisserie chicken and ridiculously huge $12 mac and cheese = feed a family of 4 for $17.

We had a comment in another thread ("how much did you pay for gas and groceries?) where one poster was complaining about the high cost of steak. You know how many times we ate steak for dinner when I was a kid? Not to mention the high cost of travel to places I never went when I was a kid.

You can buy my 1300 square foot Buffalo childhood home for a monthly payment of under $2000. I work with a lot of 20 and 30 somethings decrying the out-of-reach cost of a home here in Colorado. We have an office in Buffalo. I ask them: why not move to Buffalo? At our pay rate, you could easily afford the home my parents had at your age."

They are not interested. They don't want to live in Buffalo, and they think they deserve a nice suburban McMansion or a totally rehabbed historic home in a nice urban neighborhood. 

[Joe Ferguson forever]

Just now, TSOL said:

$18.50 for that chipotle burrito, chips and guac, and a drink here in buffalo. 

 

And $4 dollar chips? Are you buying store brand cuz Lays are $5.50-6 here 

shouldn't eat chips.  bad for u.  but if you insist, go to Aldi...

[The Frankish Reich]

Just now, redtail hawk said:

shouldn't eat chips.  bad for u.  but if you insist, go to Aldi...

And there you have it. But I have a right to a 1500 calorie Chipotle burrito for dinner. And for a late-night chip and dip snack. And Lay's, not the store brand.