Let's revisit and grade 2017 draft

[CA OC Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Mango said:

This is a fair take. Most of the head scratching will be whether or not people grade Tre vs. Mahomes or Mahomes vs. the class as a whole. 

My only disagreement in your grading, and it is super minor, is Peterman. The dude was a dud, don't get me wrong, but I look at most picks outside of the 4th as "meh". If you find value, great. If you don't it's the 5th, 6th, 7th round. Those picks don't work out all the time. Tough to hold it against the FO. Sure, there is always a guy there that turned out to be a stud, but it's not wild that a guy drafted in the 5th 6th, 7th don't make it through camp. If it weren't for actually naming him the starter he could still be our QB3 (what a wild thought). 

Yup. How many 5th round or later QBs not named Brady or Warner have become starters, let alone franchise QBs? They are normally short term backups / practice squad players. The pick wasn't the issue, it's that we had him start, especially to begin the next season when we already had JA on the team. 

[GoBills808]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I have said it a lot but in years to come the narrative on Marvin Lewis will change from the man who went 0-7 in the playoffs to the man who got the Bengals to the playoff seven times. Their last 14 non Marvin Lewis seasons they have won fewer than 6 games TEN times.

Same w Lions and Caldwell 

 

some really bad front office moves can echo for a decade plus

[mjt328]

I have my own ranking system for draft picks.

A - All-Pro/Pro-Bowler

B - Solid Starter

C - Rotational Player

D - Backup/Special Teams

F - Out of League

 

Tre White is clearly an A, and one of the best corners in the NFL.

Zay Jones was a major disappointment here, but has settled as backup for the Raiders.  He just re-signed with them on a 1-year-deal.  Grade him a D.

Dion Dawkins is a solid B, as a solid starting left tackle.

Matt Milano is also a B (maybe a B+).  I think he's got some potential to become a Pro-Bowler in this league though.

Nathan Peterman is a joke around here.  But he's still floating around on the Raiders roster as a backup.  Grade is a D.

Tanner Vallejo has also remained in the NFL as a backup and special teamer.  Just signed a two-year deal with Arizona.  Another solid D.

 

On the team level, this was a very strong draft for the Bills.

Three picks were clearly hits, and every player is still floating around the NFL somewhere.  

 

[White Linen]

Solid?  It doesn't get much better. 

[Augie]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

I have my own ranking system for draft picks.

A - All-Pro/Pro-Bowler

B - Solid Starter

C - Rotational Player

D - Backup/Special Teams

F - Out of League

 

Tre White is clearly an A, and one of the best corners in the NFL.

Zay Jones was a major disappointment here, but has settled as backup for the Raiders.  He just re-signed with them on a 1-year-deal.  Grade him a D.

Dion Dawkins is a solid B, as a solid starting left tackle.

Matt Milano is also a B (maybe a B+).  I think he's got some potential to become a Pro-Bowler in this league though.

Nathan Peterman is a joke around here.  But he's still floating around on the Raiders roster as a backup.  Grade is a D.

Tanner Vallejo has also remained in the NFL as a backup and special teamer.  Just signed a two-year deal with Arizona.  Another solid D.

 

On the team level, this was a very strong draft for the Bills.

Three picks were clearly hits, and every player is still floating around the NFL somewhere.  

 

 

I think it’s only fair to adjust for how critical each position is. After you have a QB, the three other key spots are LT, CB1 and a pass rusher, IMO. We got half of those spots filled in that draft (plus Milano), so it bumps up a bit in my eyes. 

 

Zay Jones if the only thing holding my grade back, and I don’t know if we’ll ever get the whole story with what was going on with him. He could catch, and then he couldn’t. Then there was the wild hotel stuff. Something was up. It’s still a whiff that high, but there was stuff off the field we apparently didn’t see coming. 

 

Schottenheimer was mentioned earlier. Didn’t he finish with 8 straight wins in Washington and get fired for a .500 season? Give the guy a break! He turned it around! 

 

 

.

Edited May 3, 2021 by Augie

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, CA OC Bills Fan said:

Yup. How many 5th round or later QBs not named Brady or Warner have become starters, let alone franchise QBs? They are normally short term backups / practice squad players. The pick wasn't the issue, it's that we had him start, especially to begin the next season when we already had JA on the team. 

 

Romo. 

[vincec]

5 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

B

 

Although we got three really good starters, we passed on Mahomes. I understand we have Josh Allen who is a top 2-3 QB, but it was a risky move. Not to toot my own horn, but I wanted Mahomes that year. It worked out in the end though, but had we not landed Josh, this could have been a career ender for McD/Beane.

Beane?

5 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Gonna stir the pot here: Is there another A-graded draft in the last 3 years? Or does Whaley have the only one?

McDermott made the picks with Beane secretly advising from Carolina. Whaley did have input on Jones, Peterman and Vallejo though. At least that’s the TBD version.

 

Seriously though, the 2018 draft is looking like an A as well, just for Allen by himself.

Edited May 3, 2021 by vincec

[ghostwriter]

Just now, vincec said:

Beans?

Yes. Although Beane was not the GM at the time, had he whiffed on Josh Allen and say took the “Right Josh”, his career as a GM would be chopped liver. McD really lucked out in that regard. It’s not common that you pass on a top 2-3 QB only to draft a different top 2-3 QB a year later. Passing on Mahomes could have destroyed McD/Beane’s career for sure.

[vincec]

1 minute ago, Victory Formation said:

Yes. Although Beane was not the GM at the time, had he whiffed on Josh Allen and say took the “Right Josh”, his career as a GM would be chopped liver. McD really lucked out in that regard. It’s not common that you pass on a top 2-3 QB only to draft a different top 2-3 QB a year later. Passing on Mahomes could have destroyed McD/Beane’s career for sure.

I understand what you’re saying, but it would be pretty harsh to blame Beane for not bailing out McDermott from the year before.

[ghostwriter]

Just now, vincec said:

I understand what you’re saying, but it would be pretty harsh to blame Beane for not bailing out McDermott from the year before.

Blame or no blame, the fate of McD is the same as Beane’s. Mahomes was an extremely attractive QB in that draft, he had just about everything you’d ever want in a QB. Once again, McD passed on a sure fire 1st ballot HOF at QB for a meager 1st round pick. I will admit however that I’m glad we ended up with Josh Allen and not Mahomes. Very risky situation though. We had no QB and a great one was available. We got the best QB in the 2018 Draft, but he was the third one taken, that’s pretty darn lucky dude. That could have ended disastrously bad. If we picked one QB in that draft not named Josh Allen, that whole situation would have been one of the most crushing blunders in Bills history, even worst than passing on Orakpo for Maybin or taking Mike Williams over Bryant McKinnie or trading Daryl Lamonica to the Raiders combined.  Huge bullet dodged.

[BruceVilanch]

8 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

So you're giving T Vallego whom I barely remember a 3 and T White a 4.  No idea what the highest score you gave was, but overall the numbers you gave doesn't seem to reflect their contributions and level of their play.

He's grading it like a GPA 4=A 3=B and so on.

[Southern_Bills]

3 high level starters in one draft? That's a win. 

 

This is of course only possible Because they got Allen/Edmunds the next year mainly because of the Mahomes trade. 

 

17/18 will forever be tied together, though it's hard to say how Mahomes would have done early with the roster we had, and we will never know.

[machine gun kelly]

I gave them an A-, but vacillated over possibly an A.  Either is really fine for me.  I don’t mind on missed picks like Peterman as he was a late round pick and Milano was a steal in retrospect, but then again so was Diggs for MN as a 5th round pick.  The Zay Jones pick was smart at the time as he was the leading receptions guy in college, but he just never developed at all in the pros.  In the second round, you’d expect a WR to make a better impact.  Tre and Dion have been great which is one of the reasons I was a little surprised we took two OT’s this year.  
 

I was not at all surprised at one, but D. Williams and Dawkins are under contract for another three years.   Maybe in two years Beane is thinking he can get out of the Williams contract.

 

Im glad OP you put some thought into this thread as four years later is a fair time to assess a draft, not the crap that was put out over the weekend about this draft.  I don’t even know why people read those fluff articles.  They mean nothing.  It is even fair to assess the 2018 draft as there is enough evidence now on the players.  I don’t think it’s long enough to assess 2019 and 20 yet.  Look how much Allen evolved from year 1, to 2, to 3.

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

I gave them an A-, but vacillated over possibly an A.  Either is really fine for me.  I don’t mind on missed picks like Peterman as he was a late round pick and Milano was a steal in retrospect, but then again so was Diggs for MN as a 5th round pick.  The Zay Jones pick was smart at the time as he was the leading receptions guy in college, but he just never developed at all in the pros.  In the second round, you’d expect a WR to make a better impact.  Tre and Dion have been great which is one of the reasons I was a little surprised we took two OT’s this year.  
 

I was not at all surprised at one, but D. Williams and Dawkins are under contract for another three years.   Maybe in two years Beane is thinking he can get out of the Williams contract.

 

Im glad OP you put some thought into this thread as four years later is a fair time to assess a draft, not the crap that was put out over the weekend about this draft.  I don’t even know why people read those fluff articles.  They mean nothing.  It is even fair to assess the 2018 draft as there is enough evidence now on the players.  I don’t think it’s long enough to assess 2019 and 20 yet.  Look how much Allen evolved from year 1, to 2, to 3.

 

They can get out of the Williams deal after 1 year for $3.6m dead money (which they could still split across two years). After two years they can get out at $1.8m. I'd say at this stage it is pretty unlikely Williams sees year 3 of this deal. 

[machine gun kelly]

GB, I know and always appreciate you’re take.  I think we’ve looked fir a good RT for a long time and last year Williams did well.  People keep going back to 5e Chiefs game as if that is the only game they played, but Williams was so impressive on his own completely nullifying anything from TJ Watt in the Steelers game without TENor RB help.

 

Around the NFL most consider TJ Watt an elite rusher.  If Williams knee starts to give him trouble again in a year, then sure we have depth.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

8 hours ago, BruceVilanch said:

He's grading it like a GPA 4=A 3=B and so on.

 

OK, but then still a B for Vallego??  Did he contribute much more than I recall??  I barely remember the name.

[No_Matter_What]

19 hours ago, mannc said:

Yeah, Mahomes factor aside, that was a really nice draft for the Bills.  And didn't we get back some sort of late-round pick for Peterman? Or did we just cut him?  

 

It would have been nice if we had traded or pick 10 overall to someone outside the AFC, but I don't doubt that KC's offer was the best one we had on the table at time.

 

As far as which team had the best draft, well, there's not much question that it was Kansas City.  They got their QB for the next 15 years, long after Marshawn Lattimore and the other Saints draftees have hung up their cleats. 

 

Yeah no question about Chiefs. Mahomes alone makes it A+ no matter what. I just tried to find teams that drafted well and Saints really stand out.

 

I was sort of hoping for more discussion about this from people who know players in other teams more than I do. Who did really well in that draft? Who did really suck?

 

Anyway, I think it is pretty clear how hard is to find even 3 long-term starters in one draft. I don't have the capacity to look, but is there any other team in the league other than Saints which will even keep 3 players fro that draft in 2021 (i.e. five seasons)? Saints will, since Lattimore and Ramczyk are playing under 5th year option (and don't have longterm contract so far), Kamara was resigned longterm and Marcus Williams was resigned on 1yr deal.

 

19 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Gonna stir the pot here: Is there another A-graded draft in the last 3 years? Or does Whaley have the only one?

 

Not here not now please  That is sort of the point - grade it after 4 years. You can be sure that I will come up with same thread next year. But if Josh doesn't regress from any reason, I don't think many will grade it other than A even if Phillips is gone and Edmunds doesn't get better.

 

18 hours ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

White, Dawkins, and Milano clearly were really good picks. When you factor in Zay, Petermen (especially) I guess I would overall give it a B or B-.. I really don't factor in the Tanner pick in 6th round very much due to obvious reasons, however if it would have been a 6th round player that  totally surprised and made an impact (which is very rare) it would be an A.

 

Also I don't really factor in the PM miss since so many other teams also passed on him. That's just me.

 

Don't want to argue, but if you want to grade it B due to Zay and Peterman, you are in my view saying that you need to hit on all picks up to 5th round to gain an A, which is almost impossible. In my view 3 top players, including two playing on key position, should almost always guarantee an A, otherwise the grading system is too harsh.

[Patrick Duffy]

58 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

 

Yeah no question about Chiefs. Mahomes alone makes it A+ no matter what. I just tried to find teams that drafted well and Saints really stand out.

 

I was sort of hoping for more discussion about this from people who know players in other teams more than I do. Who did really well in that draft? Who did really suck?

 

Anyway, I think it is pretty clear how hard is to find even 3 long-term starters in one draft. I don't have the capacity to look, but is there any other team in the league other than Saints which will even keep 3 players fro that draft in 2021 (i.e. five seasons)? Saints will, since Lattimore and Ramczyk are playing under 5th year option (and don't have longterm contract so far), Kamara was resigned longterm and Marcus Williams was resigned on 1yr deal.

 

 

Not here not now please  That is sort of the point - grade it after 4 years. You can be sure that I will come up with same thread next year. But if Josh doesn't regress from any reason, I don't think many will grade it other than A even if Phillips is gone and Edmunds doesn't get better.

 

 

Don't want to argue, but if you want to grade it B due to Zay and Peterman, you are in my view saying that you need to hit on all picks up to 5th round to gain an A, which is almost impossible. In my view 3 top players, including two playing on key position, should almost always guarantee an A, otherwise the grading system is too harsh.

I'm not saying they have to hit on all picks at all. Obviously that's not going to happen. It's just my overall grade.That's what I assumed this thread was about, the overall draft grade.

 

I gave it a B. Which is imo pretty good, so don't really get why you assume I'm saying it was a bad draft. I get that not much is expected from a 5th round pick, but had to factor in how god awful bad Petermen was. They you have the 2nd rd pick in Zay. I don't even have to get into how that went.

 

So yeah, with all that imo a B is still decent.

[No_Matter_What]

19 minutes ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

I'm not saying they have to hit on all picks at all. Obviously that's not going to happen. It's just my overall grade.That's what I assumed this thread was about, the overall draft grade.

 

I gave it a B. Which is imo pretty good, so don't really get why you assume I'm saying it was a bad draft. I get that not much is expected from a 5th round pick, but had to factor in how god awful bad Petermen was. They you have the 2nd rd pick in Zay. I don't even have to get into how that went.

 

So yeah, with all that imo a B is still decent.

 

All good. You're right, the point was to give your own grade. I just think yours is harsh  

[Patrick Duffy]

10 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

 

All good. You're right, the point was to give your own grade. I just think yours is harsh  

Lol, well if you think a B is harsh then I will just have to 100% disagree. All good though.