Bills exercise 5th year options on QB Josh Allen & LB Tremaine Edmunds

[MasterStrategist]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

2 of his 3 seasons his passer rating against have been poor.    

 

He hasn't forced a fumble in his last 42 regular season games.

 

It's not just last year that he hasn't made plays............and as @GunnerBill has pointed out, teams have good scouting reports on him now and they have learned how to manipulate him in coverage to take advantage of his lack of instincts.  

 

Maybe the light comes on in year 4 but the reality is that he isn't playing anywhere near what his measurables indicated he would.

 

When they drafted this dude and moved him inside there was HOF whispers and Brian Urlacher comps.    Yet in most games he's virtually invisible.    

 

 

How do we know Edmunds assignment, other than when he's blitzing, on most plays?  Is he in his zone and someone else screwed up? 

 

I know you and Gunner are 2 of the more educated/good posters, so not calling out your knowledge of the game.  Everyone has an opinion.  

 

As other have noted, scheme plays a big role.  Front four to LBs to secondary, there is a role for each and when one underperforms its translating elsewhere most of the time.  If anything, teams haven't figured out Edmunds as much as they have figured out the defensive scheme and zone packages.  That's my take.  Mcdermotts defense puts less pressure on the Levi Wallaces and more on the plate of Tremaine and Milanos.

 

Edmunds has more potential to unlock, I think that's part of the 5th yr option as well.  I also think he gets a long term extension, beofre that 5th yr kicks in

[WideNine]

47 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I'd like to be able to compare film, side-by-side, of Edmunds and Milano.  Especially on the blitzes and running plays.  Milano seems to do more of what we'd like to see Edmunds do:  recognize, attack, make the tackle.   

 

Admittedly cherry-picking impactful stats for both, and just the last 3 years they played together...

 

Source: Pro Football-Reference

 

Milano:

Games Played: 38

FF   1

TFL 23

QB Hits 19

Scks  6

PD  19

 

Edmunds:

Games Played: 46

FF 2

TFL 19

QB Hits  14

Scks 5.5

PD 24

  

 

Was a bit surprised at how close they were considering the number of games Milano has missed.

 

A disturbing trend is that Edmunds best year seems to have been his rookie year and his impact stats have mostly dropped each successive year.

 

Folks can look them up and draw their own conclusions, just pointing out the trend.

 

 

[Don Otreply]

8 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

But he was bad at that last season....

Not that he could not be better, but, He was playing injured, as was a big chunk if our Defense for a large part of last season, what are we not understanding, injuries effect player performance, why do supposed objective fans always not take this into consideration?????

[LabattBlue]

I think a big factor is Beane and McD not only traded up, but used a mid 1st round pick on Edmunds, and maybe they don’t want to admit they made a mistake. Where he was selected played a big role in this decsion. 
 

 

I think this is the wrong move, but I hope Edmunds is a LOT better than in 2020, and not a waste of cap space for the next two seasons. 

Edited May 3, 2021 by BTB

[BuffaloRebound]

22 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Let me get this straight...you’re referring to Edmunds here, not Allen...right? 

Exercising Josh’s 5th year option should’ve been done the second that the window opened to do so.   Beane for whatever reason decided to lump the 2 decisions together.  The only one up for debate was Edmunds.  

[Shaw66]

12 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

Admittedly cherry-picking impactful stats for both, and just the last 3 years they played together...

 

Source: Pro Football-Reference

 

Milano:

Games Played: 38

FF   1

TFL 23

QB Hits 19

Scks  6

PD  19

 

Edmunds:

Games Played: 46

FF 2

TFL 19

QB Hits  14

Scks 5.5

PD 24

  

 

Was a bit surprised at how close they were considering the number of games Milano has missed.

 

A disturbing trend is that Edmunds best year seems to have been his rookie year and his impact stats have mostly dropped each successive year.

 

Folks can look them up and draw their own conclusions, just pointing out the trend.

 

 

That's interesting.  I would have guessed that even despite having missed more time, Milano would have a bigger edge on plays made.  

[Max Fischer]

6 hours ago, DCofNC said:

Really disappointed in the Edmunds news, not a good move from a simple financial options play.  Beane does a lot of things right, but contracts is not his strongest suite.  He has consistently over spent on mediocre talent, hope he gets better about it in the future.

I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you’re a troll. 

[Fan in Chicago]

1 hour ago, purple haze said:

Why are you surprised?  It was never a question.  He’s a good player.  Can he improve?  Most definitely.  But this narrative that he’s no good or below average or even average is koo-koo. 

May not have been a question in your mind, but it certianly was in mine and a few others on this board.

He has not consistently delivered or shown continued improvement as Allen did. I would have let this season go by and see if he steps it up. If he did, a new contract could be negotiated. By picking up the option, Bills are paying him in the hope the light comes on. If it does, thats great. But it is a gamble which did not have to be taken 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Fan in Chicago said:

May not have been a question in your mind, but it certianly was in mine and a few others on this board.

He has not consistently delivered or shown continued improvement as Allen did. I would have let this season go by and see if he steps it up. If he did, a new contract could be negotiated. By picking up the option, Bills are paying him in the hope the light comes on. If it does, thats great. But it is a gamble which did not have to be taken 

Is it possible he's been doing pretty much exactly what's been asked of him in this defense?

[Don Otreply]

16 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I mean the people who label you a hater are the same people who think it's ridiculous to think that the Browns could possibly be better than the Bills next season.... 

Can you remind me how he got injured? 

Not specifically,  but he was on the injury reports with a F’d up shoulder for weeks, he wasn’t right until the last quarter ish of the season, everyone knows this who followed the season, hell, we had a bunch of O & D guys out or playing injured throughout the season and still went 13-3, can our team be better? Sure, and we took steps where it was most needed to improve, and CB was not one of the spots that was “most” in need, nor was RB..., 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

I really don't think Edmunds was every really the question anyone made it out to be. 

 

Josh's extension will be done before the end of June.

 

You seem much more certain of this than Beane makes himself out to be. 

Got info or just a "good feeling"?

[Fan in Chicago]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Is it possible he's been doing pretty much exactly what's been asked of him in this defense?

Which is what exactly?

This debate (I am glad to have a healthy one even if I am proven wrong some day) reminds me of the arguments made in favor of McKelvin. A guy with immense physical talent but little to no instincts to play CB. I am not saying Edmunds has zero instincts but he misses many tackles or is not in a position to make one. I understand that the front 4 was not the best in 2020 but every player needs to do the job as best as they can. if he was a consistent tackler (TFLs), then upcoming improvements such as the return of Star, more DE talent should let him excel even more.

Again, not picking up his 5th year option was NOT equivalent to a commitment to cut him after year 4. It simply would be a strategy to wait for more information. Finally, I am not saying this is a bad decision. Just that I am surprised Beane decided to commit so early.  

[WideNine]

23 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

That's interesting.  I would have guessed that even despite having missed more time, Milano would have a bigger edge on plays made.  

 

I have to ask why you would feel like he would have the edge from his Will position? Do you feel the scheme lends itself to freeing up Milano to make more plays than Edmunds in the middle?

 

Milano is a playmaker and that stands out when he is on the field. Get's dinged a lot, but glad we were able to retain him.

 

That move of keeping Milano (and others), where he has retained key players when they could have easily chased better coin helps keep any critique I have of the job Beane is doing from going overboard - which is the way things seem to go when whenever Bills fans take up sides on any topic and it gets emotional.

 

I think it is fine to question Beane's moves, but I am not blind to the fact that he has done more good things for this team and the roster than missteps. I hope that trend continues for many years to come.

 

 

 

 

Edited May 3, 2021 by WideNine

[GoBills808]

Just now, Fan in Chicago said:

Which is what exactly?

This debate (I am glad to have a healthy one even if I am proven wrong some day) reminds me of the arguments made in favor of McKelvin. A guy with immense physical talent but little to no instincts to play CB. I am not saying Edmunds has zero instincts but he misses many tackles or is not in a position to make one. I understand that the front 4 was not the best in 2020 but every player needs to do the job as best as they can. if he was a consistent tackler (TFLs), then upcoming improvements such as the return of Star, more DE talent should let him excel even more.

Again, not picking up his 5th year option was NOT equivalent to a commitment to cut him after year 4. It simply would be a strategy to wait for more information. Finally, I am not saying this is a bad decision. Just that I am surprised Beane decided to commit so early.  

Captaining a defense that was ranked 2nd, 3rd, and 14th in the three years he's been in that role.

 

I have watched more Edmunds film than anyone else on the defense last couple years. His role is different from a traditional MLB but so is McDermott's defense as a whole. He's consistently asked to cover a lot of space underneath and on the perimeter when the RB leaks and this last season was without a front that could keep him clean. Edmunds isn't a perfect MLB but he's perfect for this defense and way above average when we don't lose at the point of attack and he's immediately dealing with a center or guard on a free release because our DTs lose 1v1.

[ColoradoBills]

2 hours ago, DCofNC said:

Yep, no chance anyone would question the Messiah.  Forget the fact we could have used the transition tag on him next year at little cost difference, but why not guarantee $13M to a guy who isn’t a top 10 player at his position, when we have to give Allen a deal and you are already up against the cap?  Why not keep the flexibility?  Why take the risk?  What happens if he goes out at pulls a Shazier or Eric Wood?  Now, no matter what, you are paying him.  It’s not a good decision and I don’t care how much I get flamed for it.

 

First, it's not any kind of crisis.  Let's look at this logically if you can.  Beane and the Bills made a big investment into Edmunds.

You (among others) believe it was foolish, fine.  

 

It's going to boil down to how does Edmunds play this year and now that the 5th year option has been picked up next year to see how

much his "perceived worth" would be for a long term 2nd contract.  I get it you (and others) think the $12M could be a waste.

He will have some sort of value in 2022 so the difference of that value versus the $12M is all that is in question.  That value is going to be determined as to

how well or not he plays this year.  No one knows that for sure.

 

IF he doesn't play well there is a chance that his contract could be traded and some of the moneys recouped.  If he improves incrementally

then it will be determined in 2022.  THEN your point of a Transition Tag may come into play.

 

Bottom line is he could sign a long term contract for less that anticipated in the next few months or this could drag on until the 2023 season.

The Bills and Beane evidently want to give this more time.  I get the feeling you won't like this explanation but maybe you will.

[Shaw66]

Just for hahas, I looked at Keuchly vs. Edmunds stats. 

 

First three years, Keuchly blows him away, because for the first three years were by far Keuchly's best.  Then his stats fall off, mostly because of injuries, I think.   

 

The surprising thing is that Edmunds is as far off as I would have thought.   All numbers are per game played;

 

Solo - 4.8 to 5.8, Keuchly

Assists - 2.9 to 3.4, Keuchly.  So, on total tackles, has a 1.5 edge.

QB Hits - .30 to .26, Edmunds. 

TFL - .41 to .64, big edge Keuchly.

Sacks - .12 to .10, Edmunds

Passed defended - .52 to .56, Keuchly.  

Forced fumbles - .04 to .06, Keuchly.  

 

Keuchly is a great tackler, Edmunds isn't.  That's clear to the eye and in the stats.  Otherwise, not a ton argue about. 

[Fan in Chicago]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Captaining a defense that was ranked 2nd, 3rd, and 14th in the three years he's been in that role.

 

I have watched more Edmunds film than anyone else on the defense last couple years. His role is different from a traditional MLB but so is McDermott's defense as a whole. He's consistently asked to cover a lot of space underneath and on the perimeter when the RB leaks and this last season was without a front that could keep him clean. Edmunds isn't a perfect MLB but he's perfect for this defense and way above average when we don't lose at the point of attack and he's immediately dealing with a center or guard on a free release because our DTs lose 1v1.

I always respect someone who spends time analyzing film so perhaps you are correct. Without extending this too much, lets say I am skeptical for now. 

[Shaw66]

8 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

I have to ask why you would feel like he would have the edge from his Will position? Do you feel the scheme lends itself to freeing up Milano to make more plays than Edmunds in the middle?

 

Milano is a playmaker and that stands out when he is on the field. Get's dinged a lot, but glad we were able to retain him.

 

That move of keeping Milano (and others), where he has retained key players when they could have easily chased better coin helps keep any critique I have of the job Beane is doing from going overboard - which is the way things seem to go when whenever Bills fans take up sides on any topic and it gets emotional.

 

I think it is fine to question Beane's moves, but I am not blind to the fact that he has done more good things for this team and the roster than missteps. I hope that trend continues for many years to come.

 

 

 

 

I don't know.  My mental image is that Milano makes a couple of big plays a game, and Edmunds doesn't.  But you're right, playing where he plays he doesn't have nearly the opportunity to pile up stats.   

 

I think what happened with Milano was that the COVID cap lowered his potential payday and Beane realized he could keep Milano for less than he had anticipated.   Milano probably didn't want to leave unless it was for a lot more money, and the lot more money wasn't there. 

[purple haze]

20 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

May not have been a question in your mind, but it certianly was in mine and a few others on this board.

He has not consistently delivered or shown continued improvement as Allen did. I would have let this season go by and see if he steps it up. If he did, a new contract could be negotiated. By picking up the option, Bills are paying him in the hope the light comes on. If it does, thats great. But it is a gamble which did not have to be taken 

He’s better than you and some on this board want to believe.  He definitely has another level there to be reached if he can, I agree with that, but the narrative on the board regarding him is shaky.  Beane and McDermott like him. 🤷🏾‍♂️

[Buffalo716]

53 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I'll help you out, he completely whiffed a tackle on Jamison Crowder which resulted in a 60 plus yard TD. 

 

Isn't it obvious a player isn't all that good when a good chunk of the fan base is questioning that player's performance? Josh Allen's a perfect example. He had plenty of question makes entering last season. Now, just about every Bills fan agrees the guy is an elite QB. 

 

When the age excuse instead of the players actual play on the field continues to be mentioned by his biggest supporters game after game, month after month and now year after year you have to be at least a little skeptical of that player. 

No because people here don't  coach or scout

 

Stephon Gilmore got railroaded here and at the other bills board for years.. calling him burnt toast and overrated 

 

I had the complete opposite view and called him our most complete defensive player and a future All pro.. guess what he is 

 

And most the fans were wrong.. 

While some knew he was super underrated

 

 

 

 

Edited May 3, 2021 by Buffalo716