Bills exercise 5th year options on QB Josh Allen & LB Tremaine Edmunds

[Shaw66]

14 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

2 of his 3 seasons his passer rating against have been poor.    

 

@GunnerBill has pointed out, teams have good scouting reports on him now and they have learned how to manipulate him in coverage to take advantage of his lack of instincts.  

 

 

 

 

Only one of the three seasons has his passer rating been poor.   

 

And I don't think the fact that they manipulate Edmunds in coverage is due to his lack of instincts.   I think it's due to the amount of space the Bills ask him to cover.   It's clear in the championship game that Mahomes had two options over the middle, read Edmunds, then went the other way.  That's not bad instincts.  Edmunds wasn't choosing the wrong guy to cover.  Edmunds had two guys to cover, which was impossible.  When he chose one, Mahomes threw away from him.  

 

That's consistent with what I said in my last post - I think the Bills intentionally give Edmunds a large territory to cover, which has the effect of helping the other back six guys shut down their zones.   In a sense, I think the Bills invite teams to throw over the middle.  

 

That's not bad instincts.  

[DCofNC]

3 hours ago, Brennan Huff said:

Bro, you’re about to get dragged to hell

Yep, no chance anyone would question the Messiah.  Forget the fact we could have used the transition tag on him next year at little cost difference, but why not guarantee $13M to a guy who isn’t a top 10 player at his position, when we have to give Allen a deal and you are already up against the cap?  Why not keep the flexibility?  Why take the risk?  What happens if he goes out at pulls a Shazier or Eric Wood?  Now, no matter what, you are paying him.  It’s not a good decision and I don’t care how much I get flamed for it.

[Boxcar]

3 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

Really?  Let me just ask you, how much has Murphy’s contribution been since he was signed? Let’s take a look at Norman, how about the guaranteed money to sign our inactive 3rd-ish string running back or the 10M a year for a non-Star at 1 tech, maybe take a look at last years defensive disaster he managed to put out there, with all of his lineman he signed being so bad they were forced to take pay cuts or leave, this is the Messiah you are following?  He signed exactly one starting player this offseason, a 34 year old “speed” receiver after releasing one, who could have been restructured for far less based on his new contract.   Which, hey, let’s talk about 9M a year for Brown?  How about that deal?  Man, this guy is greatness defined.

I liked the part where you ignored everything good he's done.

 

The Star contract is literally the only thing that is notably bad. The rest, you are nitpicking.

[appoo]

14 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

Right. I have largely been looking at cap dollars by group across the league. Projecting Edmunds at $15M + Milano put the Bills in the top 5-7ish range in terms of LB spending. That is just two guys and not accounting for Klien/depth. We just don't get the return you would hope for based on that sort of resource allocation. Part of my fear there probably comes from having the most expensive DL in the league for almost no return. We don't have near a top 5 LB corp so I have an issue with an extension that allocates resources as if we do. 

 

That's an interesting way to look at this as well.

 

To be honest, As a football fan, I'm not entirely sold on retaining both Edmunds and Milano as high priced LBs. As a Bills fan, it's different.

 

This is the consequence of who we have as a coach, who needs a pair of do it all LBs who can go sideline-to-sideline. I don't love it, but it's the world I operate in as a Bills fan.

 

Though one quibble I'll have with your post is the expensive DLine. With two 2nds and now a 1st going to DEs this year and last year, that tells me you're not going to see either Hughes or Addison be retained past next year - so I think the plan is quite clear to run the DLine with youth as starters and cheap vets as depth. Perhaps one place they'll spend money is a front line 1T after Star goes. So I think the resources spent on DL will likely end up being the 2nd lowest in 2022, ahead of RB. Though that perhaps only lasts a year, as Ed Oliver will get paid I think in 2024.

 

Bottom line though. Milano/Edmunds are worth more to McDermott, than they would be to most NFL teams, simply because of scheme. And if that's the scheme I gotta live with as a fan, then I'm happy with paying those two guys.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I get all that, and I see it too.   Still, I wonder if we know we're talking about.   I'll give you a completely different stat.   I'll preface by saying that we thing we know about McDermott is that his defensive style is not to give up the big play.  That means he's willing to give the offense something else in order to be sure to shut down the big play.  The best place to give them something is over the middle, because that's where you have the most tacklers, and it's the best place to give the offense some yardage without giving them big yardage.   

 

So, okay, Edmunds had a passer rating of 114 last season.   And I suspect it wasn't much different in the two previous years.   How was the Bills pass defense?   In 2020, the Bills' defensive passer rating was 86.9, 5th best in the league.  The two seasons before that, Edmunds' first two seasons in the league, the team defensive passer ratings were third best in the league. 

 

As I've suggested to you before, I think (I don't know but I think) that Edmunds is giving McDermott most of what McDermott wants.  Edmunds allows the back seven shell to over-cover the sideline and deep routes.   Edmunds (and Milano) cover a large amount of the short middle, where McDermott will give up completions at a relatively high rate in order to shut down the explosive plays.   (And by the way, Edmunds' passer rating his first two seasons was 93 and then 76, so I wouldn't be too quick to condemn him for his 114.   

 

I really think that we don't understand Edmunds' value the way McDermott does.  

 

Still, I share your concerns - why is he such a lousy blitzer, getting pressure not very often and more or less never getting sacks?  Why can't he tackle better?   Why is he always a split second late to intercept?   

 

 

If they are simply allowing passes to be completed over the middle why do they need a special athlete to do that?

 

I know the narrative.........but people talk themselves into a knot trying to explain this mysterious greatness that Edmunds brings........and then think they've drawn a straight conclusion.

 

He's disappointed.   I don't care that McBeane fluff him up in the media.    They are a middling defense in great deal due to his lack of impactful plays.......and I am sure they don't like that.  

 

McDermott actually did say Edmunds had to play better when pressed on it last year.........which was RARE criticism of any player from the publicly uncritical HC.

 

He's got a high ceiling,  they have taken the experiment this far, they likely have their fingers crossed that this is the year he plays up to his potential.  

[DCofNC]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

ranked 14th

38 Points, 439 yards given up in the game that mattered.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

I don’t think there are any Edmunds “haters”, rather Edmunds “realists”.  
 

I love the kid, but he needs to play better or 12.7M is substantially overpaying for his services.  As the kids say, FACTS.  

 

 

I guess you'd know better than I if they're not haters. But that's how they come across. They're not realists, not even close. Something along the lines of Edmunds chronic underestimators. The team makes it obvious again and again that they like the guy, that the FO thinks he's doing a good job, after he got healthy anyway. And these people continue not to get it. They've said again and again that it's too much money, as you say here.

 

And thing is, it's not. This is a front office that is all about careful cap management. Not that they've been perfect at it of course. Nobody is. But overall they've gotten good value and the overpayments have pretty much been for FAs from other teams. You folks are saying it's too much because you're not looking at his role the way the Bills do. 

 

The realists are the people who thought it was wildly likely that he'd be given the option, that he was worth it and it wasn't really a question. The ones who were proven right here.

 

Not that he doesn't need to keep improving. They all do, every player. He's certainly one that does, and I think he's already talking about how he's going to improve next year. But he's also a really good player. They gave him that money because he's worth it.

 

The kids do say FACTS. A lot of them say it about things that are clearly wacky, though, and that's the way it looks here as well.

 

Hater may not be the right word, but Edmunds is chronically underestimated and attacked by people who are theoretically fans of the team and the players.

 

 

 

 

[DCofNC]

3 minutes ago, Boxcar said:

I liked the part where you ignored everything good he's done.

 

The Star contract is literally the only thing that is notably bad. The rest, you are nitpicking.

Ok, I’m not engaging in a battle of wits with an unarmed man.

[John from Riverside]

3 hours ago, DCofNC said:

Really disappointed in the Edmunds news, not a good move from a simple financial options play.  Beane does a lot of things right, but contracts is not his strongest suite.  He has consistently over spent on mediocre talent, hope he gets better about it in the future.

Yeah....those multiple pro bowls have sucked

[HeHateMe]

1 hour ago, WideNine said:

 

That is always an interesting take, but he comes from a football family and has been immersed in the sport.

 

If memory serves he makes some of the defensive calls on the field. So game IQ may not be an issue.

 

I could get behind the "raw" project Allen with his multi-sport background and limited focus on football, QB camps, etc... If anything Allen has progressed faster than I imagined.

 

Right or wrong, I had more expectations of Edmunds after his first 2 seasons where it looked like he was building on something, but he has been regressing..

 

"...you're either growing or you're dying. There ain't no third direction."

 

- Tommy Boy

 

It is in all of our interest as Bills fans that he turn his play around this season. We are going to need more impact plays (passes defended, sacks on blitzes, TFLs, FF, ...) from that position.

 

 

 

 

Thank you, that is where a MLB earns his money... There are a lot of Edmunds truthers on this board... He's been average to below.  He should be a great cover backer but he isn't, his size and speed should allow him into the backfield for negative plays all the time but it doesn't... 

[Just Joshin']

3 hours ago, Bangarang said:

Not surprising at all.

Well it is for some who have been on the cut/trade Edmunds bandwagon. 

[appoo]

3 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

Yep, no chance anyone would question the Messiah.  Forget the fact we could have used the transition tag on him next year at little cost difference, but why not guarantee $13M to a guy who isn’t a top 10 player at his position, when we have to give Allen a deal and you are already up against the cap?  Why not keep the flexibility?  Why take the risk?  What happens if he goes out at pulls a Shazier or Eric Wood?  Now, no matter what, you are paying him.  It’s not a good decision and I don’t care how much I get flamed for it.

I mean we're up against the cap NOW in 2021.  Even with Allen and Edmunds 5th year taken into account the Bills are slightly under their 22 cap, with their most signifcant FA resinging decision to be Levi Wallace. They literally don't have to cut a single player to retain their squad next year, while they can still gain a lot of space by extending Diggs, and cutting/restructing vets like Star.

 

The bills are in an excellent spot, cap wise

[BADOLBILZ]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Only one of the three seasons has his passer rating been poor.   

 

And I don't think the fact that they manipulate Edmunds in coverage is due to his lack of instincts.   I think it's due to the amount of space the Bills ask him to cover.   It's clear in the championship game that Mahomes had two options over the middle, read Edmunds, then went the other way.  That's not bad instincts.  Edmunds wasn't choosing the wrong guy to cover.  Edmunds had two guys to cover, which was impossible.  When he chose one, Mahomes threw away from him.  

 

That's consistent with what I said in my last post - I think the Bills intentionally give Edmunds a large territory to cover, which has the effect of helping the other back six guys shut down their zones.   In a sense, I think the Bills invite teams to throw over the middle.  

 

That's not bad instincts.  

 

The minutia is not worth arguing with you about it.   You have yourself tied in a knot of reasoning.   It's not that complicated.

 

His lack of impact is broad........he isn't good against the run..........he isn't a good blitzer..........his pass coverage leaves plenty to be desired..........and he doesn't make plays in the backfield or on the football........the kinds of plays that change games.

 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

The realists are the people who thought it was wildly likely that he'd be given the option, that he was worth it and it wasn't really a question. The ones who were proven right here.

 

 

Whoa hang on there is a logic leap here. I consider myself an Edmunds realist I see both sides of the debate. I thought he was very much trending towards being a star in 2019 but his play regressed in 2020 and I don't think all of it can be accounted for by the injury. That said I, as a realist, never felt the 5th year option was in doubt. He was always having it picked up. My problem is the suggestion that anyone who believed he was worth it has been proven right. I don't think that has been proven either way and won't be until the 2021 season has played out. 

 

My personal view is that while an extension is more of a legitimate question than the option, the reality is that he remains more likely to be extended than let go at the end of his rookie deal.

[Thurman#1]

1 minute ago, DCofNC said:

38 Points, 439 yards given up in the game that mattered.

 

 

True. But how come you're not complaining about the offense only scoring 24 points in "the game that mattered." And nobody had opted out on that side of the ball.

 

You don't judge a unit by how they performed in one game only. It's simply not fair to do so. The defense played very well after the first six games. Yes, the Chiefs offense was just better. But they're better than nearly everyone they played, particularly if you look at games when their OL wasn't badly depleted by injury as they were against Tampa Bay.

 

Not that they don't need to improve. They seem very aware that they need to improve the pass rush for one thing.

[appoo]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Whoa hang on there is a logic leap here. I consider myself an Edmunds realist I see both sides of the debate. I thought he was very much trending towards being a star in 2019 but his play regressed in 2020 and I don't think all of it can be accounted for by the injury. That said I, as a realist, never felt the 5th year option was in doubt. He was always having it picked up. My problem is the suggestion that anyone who believed he was worth it has been proven right. I don't think that has been proven either way and won't be until the 2021 season has played out. 

 

My personal view is that while an extension is more of a legitimate question than the option, the reality is that he remains more likely to be extended than let go at the end of his rookie deal.

 

if you thought he was good in 2019, then why did you think he regressed in 2020, when you consider the 2nd half of 2020? That was probably his best period of play as a pro

[Rochesterfan]

13 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

38 Points, 439 yards given up in the game that mattered.

 

So then we shouldn’t have to worry about KC right - I mean 9 points, mid 200 yards passing, 2 Ints, 11 penalties, and 3 sacks given up in THE most important game.

 

I mean their offense must totally suck going forward.

 

Ridiculous!

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, appoo said:

 

if you thought he was good in 2019, then why did you think he regressed in 2020, when you consider the 2nd half of 2020? That was probably his best period of play as a pro

 

Well I disagree with your last line, so there is that. He played better than the first half of the season and he had a couple of really good games - San Fran and Pitt stand out in my mind - but I don't think it was his best consistent run of football. I think his regression was a number of factors. Injury, dline issues in front of him both factored in but it was also in part teams looking at film of him in 2019 and adjusting the way they tried to attack the middle of the field against us. They exposed his relative weakness in terms if play recognition and instincts and baited him into areas of the field they wanted him in to attack space behind him.

[Chandler#81]

1 hour ago, billsfan_34 said:

We just went to the AFC Championship game. Where did we over spend?

 

36 minutes ago, Boxcar said:

It's stunning that you could watch this offseason unfold and come away with this conclusion.

PLEASE! Don’t encourage the Mental Facility escapee! The white coats are on the chase and the overdue lobotomy is ready to be performed!

[Simon Says]

4 hours ago, DCofNC said:

Really disappointed in the Edmunds news, not a good move from a simple financial options play.  Beane does a lot of things right, but contracts is not his strongest suite.  He has consistently over spent on mediocre talent, hope he gets better about it in the future.

You're way off....23 years old and two ProBowls. Thankfully you are just trolling from your Mom's basement