Bills exercise 5th year options on QB Josh Allen & LB Tremaine Edmunds

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I can't explain it to you, because I don't understand it, either, but McDermott seems to think you're wrong about this.  And I don't mean it as a criticism of what you're saying, because I've always thought what you're saying is the correct approach.  

 

 

Yeah.........the eye test says he simply doesn't make game changing plays.

 

The counting stats......turnovers forced and collected, passes defensed, TFL's......they all say he doesn't make game changing plays.

 

The advanced stats...... like his atrocious 114 passer rating allowed and an astonishing 0 pressures on 72 blitzes......say he doesn't make game changing plays.

 

The hope has to be that he has a breakout season like Roquan Smith did in the second half of last season.

 

Very talented player........loved the draft pick.........he's basically got the wingspan of Greg Rousseau but with 4.5 speed and excellent agility.

[Don Otreply]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

I don’t think there are any Edmunds “haters”, rather Edmunds “realists”.  
 

I love the kid, but he needs to play better or 12.7M is substantially overpaying for his services.  As the kids say, FACTS.  

I hear ya, but some of this disagreement comes from those that won’t accept the D scheme that McDermott plays, so they get all twisted up that the D scheme they want played isn’t in consideration, so they rant about what they can not have..., reality sucks for some it would appear. 

[WideNine]

40 minutes ago, jeremy2020 said:

 

The logical leaps and fallacies one has to commit to convince themselves that is the strategy is honestly impressive. 

 

No leaps other than the truth that Edmunds play declined last year.

 

I am not referring to popularity contests like the pro-bowl, but just how he faired compared to other LBs in the league and his numbers in prior seasons.

 

His tackles per defensive snaps (a generic LB productivity measure) put him around the middle to lower end of active LBs, he also earned a 51.0 pff pass-coverage grade, 71st among LBs with at least 226 snaps played on defense.

 

What the stats don't do is tell us if he can turn it around and become the player the Bills hoped for when they selected him so high - this is what annoyed me about pff's takes on Allen - the certain doom projections.

 

We can argue all day and throw shade on each other about whether or not his game will improve. No one knows for certain.

 

It's a Pollyanna take to say he is playing great now, and it is hubris to be certain he will never turn the corner.

 

Beane has ponied up and we will see this year how his play trends with perhaps some better d-line play in front of him.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 3, 2021 by WideNine

[BillsFanSD]

54 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

Shaq situation? To me it's telling Miami traded him after 1 year into his contract. Also as much as we dog on Edmunds he's a way better player than Shaq has ever been.

Yeah, but the decision to let Shaq walk was contentious at the time.  Obviously it turned out to be the right call, but it would be nice to give ourselves a longer window to make a call one way or the other on Edmunds.

[jletha]

I really hope this is a show of commitment and they negotiate a deal that *drastically* lowers the $13 million next year. I am all for a longish term deal that is fair based on production with some level of projection in the form of incentives.

[The Jokeman]

1 minute ago, BillsFanSD said:

Yeah, but the decision to let Shaq walk was contentious at the time.  Obviously it turned out to be the right call, but it would be nice to give ourselves a longer window to make a call one way or the other on Edmunds.

I'm sure Beane will get Allen android Edmunds signed to extensions that allow us to be more flexible with the cap before the start of the 2022. season

[Malazan]

7 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

No leaps other than the truth that Edmunds play declined last year.

 

I am not referring to popularity contests like the pro-bowl, but just how he faired compared to other LBs in the league and his numbers in prior seasons.

 

Why would I care what you are referring to when I quoted @BADOLBILZ ? Is this in alternate account or just some strange hubris that things other people say and get quoted are somehow really about you?

[Shaw66]

46 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

 

I will give Josh Norman props for foolish bravery.

 

Amazing highlight play, but lost in the spectacle was the fact that Norman's contact drove Henry out of bounds.  

[WideNine]

1 minute ago, jeremy2020 said:

 

Why would I care what you are referring to when I quoted @BADOLBILZ ? Is this in alternate account or just some strange hubris that things other people say and get quoted are somehow really about you?

 

Did not realize that was a private chat. Thought it was part of this OP thread.

 

Feel free to ignore - no skin off my back.

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

Amazing highlight play, but lost in the spectacle was the fact that Norman's contact drove Henry out of bounds.  

 

Truth. 

 

Felt bad for the kid... sure he took a ton of grief, but he did get him to step out.

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

Just now, JGMcD2 said:

Heavily inflated by 8 games playing injured. 
 

Career average is much lower. 8 vs 40 which one is a more reliable? 

 

2 of his 3 seasons his passer rating against have been poor.    

 

He hasn't forced a fumble in his last 42 regular season games.

 

It's not just last year that he hasn't made plays............and as @GunnerBill has pointed out, teams have good scouting reports on him now and they have learned how to manipulate him in coverage to take advantage of his lack of instincts.  

 

Maybe the light comes on in year 4 but the reality is that he isn't playing anywhere near what his measurables indicated he would.

 

When they drafted this dude and moved him inside there was HOF whispers and Brian Urlacher comps.    Yet in most games he's virtually invisible.    

 

 

[Mango]

26 minutes ago, appoo said:

 

Keep in mind that the more important metric will be % of salary cap. There are going to be a couple of new TV deals that are going to hit when Edmunds and Allen's deal kick in, in 2023. They'll a really nice signing bonus in 2022, but the high salary years should start in 22

 

Right. I have largely been looking at cap dollars by group across the league. Projecting Edmunds at $15M + Milano put the Bills in the top 5-7ish range in terms of LB spending. That is just two guys and not accounting for Klien/depth. We just don't get the return you would hope for based on that sort of resource allocation. Part of my fear there probably comes from having the most expensive DL in the league for almost no return. We don't have near a top 5 LB corp so I have an issue with an extension that allocates resources as if we do. 

[BuffaloRebound]

1 minute ago, Mango said:

 

Right. I have largely been looking at cap dollars by group across the league. Projecting Edmunds at $15M + Milano put the Bills in the top 5-7ish range in terms of LB spending. That is just two guys and not accounting for Klien/depth. We just don't get the return you would hope for based on that sort of resource allocation. Part of my fear there probably comes from having the most expensive DL in the league for almost no return. We don't have near a top 5 LB corp so I have an issue with an extension that allocates resources as if we do. 

Hopefully the most expensive DL part ends after this year.  Hughes, Addison and Star are most likely playing their final season with Bills.  Butler’s contract is up too.  Our defensive ends should be cost controlled for at least the next 3 years with epenesa, Rousseau, and Basham.  

[DCofNC]

2 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

I don’t mind the move, as it gives the Bills flexibility with Edmunds...just because they signed him to the 5th year option does not mean they will be paying it...

Umm, it’s guaranteed, so yeah, you are paying it.  My point is simple, you didn’t have to guarantee anything.  The worst case scenario, you had tags to use next year.

[WideNine]

8 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Heavily inflated by 8 games playing injured. 
 

First two seasons passer rating was 86... atrocious start to 2020 it was like 150... second half of the season passer rating was 86. 
 

Career average is much lower. 8 vs 40 which one is a more reliable? 

 

You hit on the one thing that gives me hope for a better overall year from Edmunds - that he is healthier.

 

Even for the dreadful KC playoff performance he had tweaked his hammy prior.

 

I have an idea how much that can impact a player's game.

 

Here's hoping for a healthy season from him so we are left with less questions or excuses depending on how it goes.

 

 

 

 

[Malazan]

3 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

Did not realize that was a private chat. Thought it was part of this OP thread.

 

Feel free to ignore - no skin off my back.

 

except you jumped in with a statement about what you were referring to...you weren't in the conversation. You don't need a strawman of saying I said you couldn't join the conversation. You jumped in a way that doesn't make sense as if you were directly referenced. 

 

Worse, you didn't even respond to anything I said. My statement was that in direct relation to someone saying that the Bills strategy was to draft tackles so they could overpay Edmunds and you teed off on Edmunds level of play which would be mostly irrelevant. 

 

If there's something you're dying to say about Edmunds level of play then just say it. It's not something I was discussing. To make sure it's easy for you, I was discussing the absurdity that the Bills draft strategy is around making sure they can overpay edmunds. 

[Boxcar]

3 hours ago, DCofNC said:

Really disappointed in the Edmunds news, not a good move from a simple financial options play.  Beane does a lot of things right, but contracts is not his strongest suite.  He has consistently over spent on mediocre talent, hope he gets better about it in the future.

It's stunning that you could watch this offseason unfold and come away with this conclusion.

[DCofNC]

59 minutes ago, billsfan_34 said:

We just went to the AFC Championship game. Where did we over spend?

This has to be the weakest argument ever.  I mean really, ever.  If you want to go down this road, we got blown out in the AFC Championship game and had some of Beanes prize pigs on the inactive list, maybe if we had those huge contracts actually playing, we could have competed.

[Shaw66]

25 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah.........the eye test says he simply doesn't make game changing plays.

 

The counting stats......turnovers forced and collected, passes defensed, TFL's......they all say he doesn't make game changing plays.

 

The advanced stats...... like his atrocious 114 passer rating allowed and an astonishing 0 pressures on 72 blitzes......say he doesn't make game changing plays.

 

The hope has to be that he has a breakout season like Roquan Smith did in the second half of last season.

 

Very talented player........loved the draft pick.........he's basically got the wingspan of Greg Rousseau but with 4.5 speed and excellent agility.

I get all that, and I see it too.   Still, I wonder if we know we're talking about.   I'll give you a completely different stat.   I'll preface by saying that we thing we know about McDermott is that his defensive style is not to give up the big play.  That means he's willing to give the offense something else in order to be sure to shut down the big play.  The best place to give them something is over the middle, because that's where you have the most tacklers, and it's the best place to give the offense some yardage without giving them big yardage.   

 

So, okay, Edmunds had a passer rating of 114 last season.   And I suspect it wasn't much different in the two previous years.   How was the Bills pass defense?   In 2020, the Bills' defensive passer rating was 86.9, 5th best in the league.  The two seasons before that, Edmunds' first two seasons in the league, the team defensive passer ratings were third best in the league. 

 

As I've suggested to you before, I think (I don't know but I think) that Edmunds is giving McDermott most of what McDermott wants.  Edmunds allows the back seven shell to over-cover the sideline and deep routes.   Edmunds (and Milano) cover a large amount of the short middle, where McDermott will give up completions at a relatively high rate in order to shut down the explosive plays.   (And by the way, Edmunds' passer rating his first two seasons was 93 and then 76, so I wouldn't be too quick to condemn him for his 114.   

 

I really think that we don't understand Edmunds' value the way McDermott does.  

 

Still, I share your concerns - why is he such a lousy blitzer, getting pressure not very often and more or less never getting sacks?  Why can't he tackle better?   Why is he always a split second late to intercept?   

[DCofNC]

2 minutes ago, Boxcar said:

It's stunning that you could watch this offseason unfold and come away with this conclusion.

Really?  Let me just ask you, how much has Murphy’s contribution been since he was signed? Let’s take a look at Norman, how about the guaranteed money to sign our inactive 3rd-ish string running back or the 10M a year for a non-Star at 1 tech, maybe take a look at last years defensive disaster he managed to put out there, with all of his lineman he signed being so bad they were forced to take pay cuts or leave, this is the Messiah you are following?  He signed exactly one starting player this offseason, a 34 year old “speed” receiver after releasing one, who could have been restructured for far less based on his new contract.   Which, hey, let’s talk about 9M a year for Brown?  How about that deal?  Man, this guy is greatness defined.

[GoBills808]

Just now, DCofNC said:

Really?  Let me just ask you, how much has Murphy’s contribution been since he was signed? Let’s take a look at Norman, how about the guaranteed money to sign our inactive 3rd-ish string running back or the 10M a year for a non-Star at 1 tech, maybe take a look at last years defensive disaster he managed to put out there, with all of his lineman he signed being so bad they were forced to take pay cuts or leave, this is the Messiah you are following?  He signed exactly one starting player this offseason, a 34 year old “speed” receiver after releasing one, who could have been restructured for far less based on his new contract.   Which, hey, let’s talk about 9M a year for Brown?  How about that deal?  Man, this guy is greatness defined.

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