1. Chiefs 2. Browns 3. Bills

[Einstein's Dog]

2 hours ago, TheFunPolice said:

Browns feel like a bigger threat than the Chiefs right now, honestly. 

 

Chiefs are cocky and one-dimensional. that dimension is amazing, but when it's off it's really off. Teams have been catching on lately, and KC, while still great, is not blowing teams out so often anymore. Kc is very streaky. Lots of points at once, then long periods of nothing. 

 

Browns are solid on both sides and hungry. 

No way.  I don't think the Browns are even favorites to win their division.  And if they don't win their division they'll be on the road most of the playoffs.  Hard to call that the big threat.

 

The Browns schedule is no picnic either - 2xBalt, 2xPitt, KC, Pack, and even the MN, AZ, and NE pieces probably shouldn't be taken lightly.  They'll probably be underdogs in at least 6 of their games.

 

IMO, you seem to be overly focused on team talent and are discounting other important variables.

[cle23]

3 hours ago, chknwing334 said:

Coaching and coordinators have been an advantage for Allen, but Allen had much less to work with as far as WRs, RBs, and TEs in 2018 and to a lesser extent in 2019.  Allen had possibly the worst receiving core in the NFL in 2018.

 

Mayfield's offensive weapons in 2018 : Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb, David Njoku, Antonio Callaway

Allen's offensive weapons in 2018  : Kelvin Benjamin, Zay Jones, 30 year old LeSean McCoy, Charles Clay

Mayfield 2019 : OBJ, Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb, David Njoku

Allen 2019 : John Brown, Cole Beasley, Dawson Knox, Devin Singletary

 

 

 

2018 Chubb hardly played until 3/4 of the way through the year. He would come in once every two games and break off a big run and then hardly play after that because Hue Jackson is stupid. Callaway was hit and miss too so I wouldn't really count him as a weapon. He made a couple big plays and then basically disappeared. And Njoku has been really up and down his whole career as well. Plus he missed almost all of 2019.

 

I would call 2018 a wash just in terms of support. 2019 Mayfield had better weapons but way a worse coach and was playing in his third system in 2 years. That's more what I meant when I said he had a harder situation. He was changing coordinators and head coaches left and right. It's hard to get comfortable in a system when it's changing all the time.

[billsrul120]

6 minutes ago, Arm of Harm said:

 

If you look only at those portions of the Chiefs/Browns playoff game where Mahomes played (including the drive where he got hurt), the Browns defense was 34% efficient. Not as high an efficiency rating as their 53% for the game as a whole, but still better than the 22% efficiency of the Bills defense. 

What about before he got hurt?  KC went down and scored touchdowns on their first 2 drives and then Mahomes hurt his toe on the third drive and was noticeably limping.  They scored a FG on that drive anyway and then got another field goal before the half.  The Browns weren't stopping the chiefs, Mahomes got hurt and was hampered by it and later was removed from the game for the head thing.

 

This Bills defense was bad against the chiefs but I don't think you point to the Browns game against the chiefs as a reason why Cleveland is in a better position to take the chiefs down.  Everybody remembers the play that Henne made at the end but what about Mayfield throwing a 2 yard dumpoff on 3rd and 11 on the previous drive.  Mayfield was either afraid of throwing deeper or is stuck in "doing the right thing" mode where he read the play out and took the dump off because it was "open" even though it gave no chance for the first down.  That is poor quarterbacking that Allen appears to have overcome and is a big part of why I think the Allen to Mayfield dropoff is so big. 

[Patrick Duffy]

21 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

No way.  I don't think the Browns are even favorites to win their division.  And if they don't win their division they'll be on the road most of the playoffs.  Hard to call that the big threat.

 

The Browns schedule is no picnic either - 2xBalt, 2xPitt, KC, Pack, and even the MN, AZ, and NE pieces probably shouldn't be taken lightly.  They'll probably be underdogs in at least 6 of their games.

 

IMO, you seem to be overly focused on team talent and are discounting other important variables.

Meh, depends on who is predicting the favorites. I've seen Ravens picked and Browns for the majority. A few said Steelers too, but mostly it's between Birds and Browns. I definitely would not be surprised the least bit if Browns do take that division this year.

Edited May 4, 2021 by Patrick_Duffy

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, Arm of Harm said:

 

Your perspective differs from mine. I believe that the Browns are the biggest threat to unseat the Chiefs, until proven otherwise. 

 

Imagine a scale with which to measure defensive effectiveness. A defense which allows a touchdown every drive is 0% effective, a defense which pitches a shutout is 100% effective. Using a scale like that, the Bills defense was 22% effective against the Chiefs offense in the AFC Championship Game. The Browns defense was 53% effective in their postseason game against the Chiefs. While Allen is a better QB than Mayfield, the differential is not great enough to compensate for the Browns defense having been over twice as effective vs the Chiefs. 

 

As you pointed out, the Bills lacked the cap space for major free agent signings. The Chiefs and Browns did sign important/good free agents. At least on paper, the Chiefs and Browns improved to a greater degree than the Bills. 

 

Do I think that the Bills can turn themselves into the biggest threat to the Chiefs? Yes I do. But, that's going to be on McDermott and Frazier to come up with a much better scheme or plan than the one they deployed in the AFC Championship Game. In that game they had the defensive talent to be more than 22% effective, and it was largely the fault of the scheme or plan that the effectiveness was so limited. There are also other opportunities to improve. Hopefully our WRs will be healthy for the postseason. With the addition of Lamp, the OL may be able to do a much better job this postseason than the bad performance it provided for all three postseason games from last season. Do the Bills have a realistic shot at winning the AFC Championship Game? Absolutely. But from where I sit, the Bills are currently in third place in that particular race, and will need to scratch, claw, and fight with everything they have if they want to move into first. 

This is the key imo.  BUT.....when playing the chiefs with a CB like Levi Wallace starting opposite Tre, a coach’s scheme has to take into account Levi’s deficiencies.  Speed, size and athleticism.  I feel that McDs scheme is always wary of getting beat over the top and Levi is a big part of that.  I am still hoping we can add an upgrade @ CB2.  I feel a more athletic CB is needed in order to play more man.....which is very important.  Our D is too predictable and our biggest problem in my estimation 

[Einstein's Dog]

4 minutes ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

Meh, depends on who is predicting the favorites. I've seen Ravens picked and Browns for the majority. A few said Steelers too, but mostly it's between Birds and Browns.

That's my point though, the Browns aren't even heavy favorites to win their own division. 

 

Talented roster that has been previously prone to inconsistent effort, that is playing a somewhat difficult schedule.  I think Vegas will put them in at about 11.5 wins, which would be less than the Bills.

[Arm of Harm]

9 minutes ago, billsrul120 said:

What about before he got hurt?  KC went down and scored touchdowns on their first 2 drives and then Mahomes hurt his toe on the third drive and was noticeably limping.  They scored a FG on that drive anyway and then got another field goal before the half.  The Browns weren't stopping the chiefs, Mahomes got hurt and was hampered by it and later was removed from the game for the head thing.

 

This Bills defense was bad against the chiefs but I don't think you point to the Browns game against the chiefs as a reason why Cleveland is in a better position to take the chiefs down.  Everybody remembers the play that Henne made at the end but what about Mayfield throwing a 2 yard dumpoff on 3rd and 11 on the previous drive.  Mayfield was either afraid of throwing deeper or is stuck in "doing the right thing" mode where he read the play out and took the dump off because it was "open" even though it gave no chance for the first down.  That is poor quarterbacking that Allen appears to have overcome and is a big part of why I think the Allen to Mayfield dropoff is so big. 

If you want to throw out all but the first two drives of the Browns/Chiefs playoff game due to the toe injury, that would give the Cleveland defense a 0% efficiency rating, but off a very small sample size. But I don’t think that’s what you’re saying. I think what you mean is that the Cleveland defense hasn’t proven itself against a fully healthy Mahomes. You may or may not be accurate in making that point, depending on how much the toe injury affected his play. 
 

If Cleveland’s defense is unable to do a better job of stopping the Chiefs than Buffalo’s defense did, then no one in particular is a threat to dethrone the Chiefs. It is unrealistic to expect to win a football game with a sub 20% efficiency rating on defense. So then you ask yourself if either the Bills or Browns can achieve a 40% or better efficiency rating, in order to give the team a realistic chance to win. The answer to that question will depend on the impact the two teams’ draft picks will have, as well as McDermott’s ability to come up with a viable defensive game plan, the effect of the Browns’ free agent signings,  and the effect of KC’s improved offensive line. Not really sure how all that will play out. What I do know is that someone needs to knock KC out of the playoffs, before they tie the Bills’ record for most Super Bowl appearances. 

[Patrick Duffy]

17 minutes ago, billsrul120 said:

What about before he got hurt?  KC went down and scored touchdowns on their first 2 drives and then Mahomes hurt his toe on the third drive and was noticeably limping.  They scored a FG on that drive anyway and then got another field goal before the half.  The Browns weren't stopping the chiefs, Mahomes got hurt and was hampered by it and later was removed from the game for the head thing.

 

This Bills defense was bad against the chiefs but I don't think you point to the Browns game against the chiefs as a reason why Cleveland is in a better position to take the chiefs down.  Everybody remembers the play that Henne made at the end but what about Mayfield throwing a 2 yard dumpoff on 3rd and 11 on the previous drive.  Mayfield was either afraid of throwing deeper or is stuck in "doing the right thing" mode where he read the play out and took the dump off because it was "open" even though it gave no chance for the first down.  That is poor quarterbacking that Allen appears to have overcome and is a big part of why I think the Allen to Mayfield dropoff is so big. 

Yup I agree, although I think Browns have a better pass rush. Anyways, regarding the bold....that is why I posted the question upthread, do you think Bills D would have done any better than Browns did after PM went out?

 

I think they maybe could have because then McD could have totally changed gameplan and I think that even though Bills pass rush wasn't great, Bills do have better CB's and S. 

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

15 minutes ago, cle23 said:

 

2018 Chubb hardly played until 3/4 of the way through the year. He would come in once every two games and break off a big run and then hardly play after that because Hue Jackson is stupid. Callaway was hit and miss too so I wouldn't really count him as a weapon. He made a couple big plays and then basically disappeared. And Njoku has been really up and down his whole career as well. Plus he missed almost all of 2019.

 

I would call 2018 a wash just in terms of support. 2019 Mayfield had better weapons but way a worse coach and was playing in his third system in 2 years. That's more what I meant when I said he had a harder situation. He was changing coordinators and head coaches left and right. It's hard to get comfortable in a system when it's changing all the time.

If you think 2018 is a wash in regard to supporting cast, you clearly don't understand how bad Kelvin Benjamin and Zay Jones were.  Bills fans would have killed for a "hit or miss" WR!  As much as I hate to compliment Landry, he is better than all of the Bills supporting cast from 2018 combined.  Clay was a shell of his former mediocre self.  

 

Allen had a horrible O line, WRs, TEs, and an aging RB that had lost a step or two.  

 

2019 Mayfield did have better weapons, but the Bills coaching and stability was starting to make up for the disparity in talent.  By 2020 we finally got to see Allen with a very good team around him and he had an MVP worthy season.

[Patrick Duffy]

2 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

That's my point though, the Browns aren't even heavy favorites to win their own division. 

 

Talented roster that has been previously prone to inconsistent effort, that is playing a somewhat difficult schedule.  I think Vegas will put them in at about 11.5 wins, which would be less than the Bills.

Yeah I think there are more picks for Ravens but Browns not far behind for sure. It will come down to Baker and how he does on whether they win the division I think

3 minutes ago, chknwing334 said:

If you think 2018 is a wash in regard to supporting cast, you clearly don't understand how bad Kelvin Benjamin and Zay Jones were.  Bills fans would have killed for a "hit or miss" WR!  As much as I hate to compliment Landry, he is better than all of the Bills supporting cast from 2018 combined.  Clay was a shell of his former mediocre self.  

 

Allen had a horrible O line, WRs, TEs, and an aging RB that had lost a step or two.  

 

2019 Mayfield did have better weapons, but the Bills coaching and stability was starting to make up for the disparity in talent.  By 2020 we finally got to see Allen with a very good team around him and he had an MVP worthy season.

Oh dear lord yes, was the absolute worst Josh had to work with that I can remember. Was torture watching that group with countless drop after drop after drop.

[NewEra]

23 minutes ago, cle23 said:

 

2018 Chubb hardly played until 3/4 of the way through the year. He would come in once every two games and break off a big run and then hardly play after that because Hue Jackson is stupid. Callaway was hit and miss too so I wouldn't really count him as a weapon. He made a couple big plays and then basically disappeared. And Njoku has been really up and down his whole career as well. Plus he missed almost all of 2019.

 

I would call 2018 a wash just in terms of support. 2019 Mayfield had better weapons but way a worse coach and was playing in his third system in 2 years. That's more what I meant when I said he had a harder situation. He was changing coordinators and head coaches left and right. It's hard to get comfortable in a system when it's changing all the time.

Chubb had 996 yards and 8 TDs.  Stop.  
 

The 2018 Bills was one of the worst collection of offensive playmakers in the last 20 years.  Kelvin Benjamin went from being our #1 WR to out of the league the following year......yeah......
 

Then look at our OL.  LG to RT-  Ducasse- Bodine- Miller- mills. 🤮 the worst OL I can remember us having in my life, which started 46 years ago.  

 

there’s no comparison.  Baker had more talent surrounding him on offense in 18 and 19.  There’s really no debate.  
 

And I believe the Browns currently have a more talented roster than the Bills.  But Allen >> Baker.  You guys have finally figured out a HC and Gm so maker might be able to inch closer......but he’ll never be as good as 17.  Ever.  Doesn’t mean your team won’t be better though.  Time will tell

8 minutes ago, chknwing334 said:

If you think 2018 is a wash in regard to supporting cast, you clearly don't understand how bad Kelvin Benjamin and Zay Jones were.  Bills fans would have killed for a "hit or miss" WR!  As much as I hate to compliment Landry, he is better than all of the Bills supporting cast from 2018 combined.  Clay was a shell of his former mediocre self.  

 

Allen had a horrible O line, WRs, TEs, and an aging RB that had lost a step or two.  

 

2019 Mayfield did have better weapons, but the Bills coaching and stability was starting to make up for the disparity in talent.  By 2020 we finally got to see Allen with a very good team around him and he had an MVP worthy season.

Yeah.....he has no clue in that regard

7 minutes ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

Yeah I think there are more picks for Ravens but Browns not far behind for sure. It will come down to Baker and how he does on whether they win the division I think

Oh dear lord yes, was the absolute worst Josh had to work with that I can remember. Was torture watching that group with countless drop after drop after drop.

And the run blocking was even worse.....if that’s even possible

12 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

That's my point though, the Browns aren't even heavy favorites to win their own division. 

 

Talented roster that has been previously prone to inconsistent effort, that is playing a somewhat difficult schedule.  I think Vegas will put them in at about 11.5 wins, which would be less than the Bills.

Yes but.....now they have stefanski.  You can’t compare him to past coaches and their inconsistencies

[Patrick Duffy]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

And the run blocking was even worse.....if that’s even possible

 

Oh man. Was beyond bad. Were many times that season I thought we would lose our 1st round QB to injury because he was having to run so damn much. Couldn't blame him though, he knew his WR's were basically worthless. So I get he had to do way more than he should have. Allen was the one and only bright light that season.

7 minutes ago, NewEra said:

The 2018 Bills was one of the worst collection of offensive playmakers in the last 20 years.  Kelvin Benjamin went from being our #1 WR to out of the league the following year......yeah......
 

Then look at our OL.  LG to RT-  Ducasse- Bodine- Miller- mills. 🤮 the worst OL I can remember us having in my life, which started 46 years ago.  

 

there’s no comparison.  Baker had more talent surrounding him on offense in 18 and 19.  There’s really no debate.

Agree with all this. Regarding the bold.....exactly right, and if one does attempt to debate it then I would say that person is clueless.

[billsrul120]

10 minutes ago, Patrick_Duffy said:

Yup I agree, although I think Browns have a better pass rush. Anyways, regarding the bold....that is why I posted the question upthread, do you think Bills D would have done any better than Browns did after PM went out?

 

I think they maybe could have because then McD could have totally changed gameplan and I think that even though Bills pass rush wasn't great, Bills do have better CB's and S. 

It's hard to say the Bills defense would have done all that much better considering the Chiefs had 3 drives with Henne playing.  The first drive was when Mahomes got hurt and they were at midfield and they ended up kicking a FG.  The second one was an interception and the 3rd was running down the clock.  I would like to think the Bills don't let Henne get loose on the 3rd and 13 but look what happened during the Texans playoffs loss last year. 

 

What I do think is that if you have Mahomes out of the game with 9:00 left in the 3rd quarter and the Bills down 22-10, I like our chances of Allen bringing us back.  Mayfield is just not very good.  Even the touchdown that they got to get to 22-17 took over 8 minutes to go 75 yards where Baker went 6/10 for a 37 yards or 3.7 ypa.  They ran the ball 8 times for 38 yards for a rushing average of 4.75 per rush.  They were better running than passing on that drive.  Baker doesn't have it and I think the Browns are going to regret giving him a bunch of money if/when that happens.

[Arm of Harm]

25 minutes ago, chknwing334 said:

If you think 2018 is a wash in regard to supporting cast, you clearly don't understand how bad Kelvin Benjamin and Zay Jones were.  Bills fans would have killed for a "hit or miss" WR!  As much as I hate to compliment Landry, he is better than all of the Bills supporting cast from 2018 combined.  Clay was a shell of his former mediocre self.  

 

Allen had a horrible O line, WRs, TEs, and an aging RB that had lost a step or two.  

 

2019 Mayfield did have better weapons, but the Bills coaching and stability was starting to make up for the disparity in talent.  By 2020 we finally got to see Allen with a very good team around him and he had an MVP worthy season.

Don’t forget Andre Holmes, WR. During the 2018 season Holmes appeared in 12 games for the Bills, including three starts. He was bad enough that the Bills released him before the end of the 2018 season. At the end of that 2018 season, Holmes exited the NFL. 

[Patrick Duffy]

1 minute ago, billsrul120 said:

It's hard to say the Bills defense would have done all that much better considering the Chiefs had 3 drives with Henne playing.  The first drive was when Mahomes got hurt and they were at midfield and they ended up kicking a FG.  The second one was an interception and the 3rd was running down the clock.  I would like to think the Bills don't let Henne get loose on the 3rd and 13 but look what happened during the Texans playoffs loss last year. 

 

What I do think is that if you have Mahomes out of the game with 9:00 left in the 3rd quarter and the Bills down 22-10, I like our chances of Allen bringing us back.  Mayfield is just not very good.  Even the touchdown that they got to get to 22-17 took over 8 minutes to go 75 yards where Baker went 6/10 for a 37 yards or 3.7 ypa.  They ran the ball 8 times for 38 yards for a rushing average of 4.75 per rush.  They were better running than passing on that drive.  Baker doesn't have it and I think the Browns are going to regret giving him a bunch of money if/when that happens.

Yeah, can't argue with that. Yeah don't know if the Bills D would have done any better in that situation, I want to say they maybe could have but never know. And totally agree with you in the bold. That's where I give Bills the edge over Browns. In that situation I think Bills would have won or either would have been in position to win regardless whether the D would have done better than Browns or not.

[Einstein's Dog]

24 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Yes but.....now they have stefanski.  You can’t compare him to past coaches and their inconsistencies

But just last year the Browns lost to the Jets (?!!!)  The second last game of the regular season with a lot on the line.  10-4 Browns with playoff hopes playing a totally in the bag Jets team.  Huge loss.

 

A very Brownsy loss done while under Stefanski.  Sure they had a couple of nice wins against Pitt, but they lost to the pathetic Jets.  Pretty much a text book example of inconsistent.

[Inigo Montoya]

I think Stefanski has Baker doing exactly what Baker should be doing, limiting turnovers, making high percentage throws when needed, and turning around and giving the ball to Chubb and Hunt to run.  With Stefanski calling the shots the Browns have become a running team with elite RBs behind a great O-Line.  Baker doesn't have to win games with his arm, he just needs to play smart football and throw enough passes to his talented WR and TE corps to keep defenses from stacking the box to stuff the run.  The formula worked well last year to the tune of 11 wins and a playoff win.

 

In Buffalo the offense begins and ends with Josh Allen.  He is expected to go out and sling the rock and win games on his arm and with his legs.  Last year he showed that he was up to the challenge with Diggs and his WRs having career years.  We won 13 games last season using that formula.

 

If you look at who the Browns' defense has coming back from injury into the lineup this year, the defensive free agents the Browns brought in, an the draft picks the Browns made, I think the Browns defense will be better on all three levels this season.  The Browns on paper look to have one of the most talented defenses in the league heading into this season.  Time will tell how that talent shows itself on the field.

 

I think the Browns are going to be dangerous this year with an elite running game, a QB who is capable of running a ball control offense at a high level, and now what will likely be a very strong defense.

 

I think the sum of those parts for Cleveland pushes them ahead of the Bills this season despite the Bills having Josh Allen who has become an elite QB.   That was the premise of the OP.  Based on the responses to the OP it looks like this board thinks I'm wrong by a 2/1 margin on that.  I hope I'm wrong.  I want to see the Bills win a Lombardi at least once in my life and this year could be their best chance to do it.  We'll see how things play out in a few months. 

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, Einstein's Dog said:

But just last year the Browns lost to the Jets (?!!!)  The second last game of the regular season with a lot on the line.  10-4 Browns with playoff hopes playing a totally in the bag Jets team.  Huge loss.

 

A very Brownsy loss done while under Stefanski.  Sure they had a couple of nice wins against Pitt, but they lost to the pathetic Jets.  Pretty much a text book example of inconsistent.

Cmon man you’re really going to use THAT game as your example?  Their ENTIRE WR unit was out due to covid that game.  The Jets just sold out to stop the run and it was game over.  JaMarcus Bradley and Marvin Hall were their only WRs that game.....both players’ only game played with the browns all season.  

[Patrick Duffy]

6 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

But just last year the Browns lost to the Jets (?!!!)  The second last game of the regular season with a lot on the line.  10-4 Browns with playoff hopes playing a totally in the bag Jets team.  Huge loss.

 

A very Brownsy loss done while under Stefanski.  Sure they had a couple of nice wins against Pitt, but they lost to the pathetic Jets.  Pretty much a text book example of inconsistent.

I agree that was a game Browns should not have lost. But those kind of fluke win/losses happens sometimes.

[GunnerBill]

54 minutes ago, chknwing334 said:

If you think 2018 is a wash in regard to supporting cast, you clearly don't understand how bad Kelvin Benjamin and Zay Jones were.  Bills fans would have killed for a "hit or miss" WR!  As much as I hate to compliment Landry, he is better than all of the Bills supporting cast from 2018 combined.  Clay was a shell of his former mediocre self.  

 

Allen had a horrible O line, WRs, TEs, and an aging RB that had lost a step or two.  

 

2019 Mayfield did have better weapons, but the Bills coaching and stability was starting to make up for the disparity in talent.  By 2020 we finally got to see Allen with a very good team around him and he had an MVP worthy season.

 

To add to this when it comes to protection in 2019 Allen had a much better line. They both had rough lines in 2018 and by 2020 the Browns had one of the best lines in football.