1. Chiefs 2. Browns 3. Bills

[ngbills]

This thread has pointed out a few of the rules for posting on these boards:

 

• We are the experts above and beyond anyone else. Well, as long as it is positive towards the Bills and negative towards other teams. Thus positive takes on the Bills are genius and anything otherwise including positive on other teams is clueless. 
• Even further, no negative views allowed on the Bills. This includes any criticism of players, coaches, decisions. On the flipside no positive take on another team because that is considered to be negative on the Bills. 
• Everything the Bills do is earned and well deserved. Everything other teams do is lucky or not legit in some way.
• The Bills always could have done this or that if they wanted to.
• The moves the team makes are always good; The ones they don't either were dumb or have some obvious explainable reason why they did not. 
• Players on the Bills, even the marginable ones are always the best. Once they leave the Bills they were obviously awful the team they went to is overpaying.  
• We are always either building/following the process and not one player away, already have the best roster so dont need anything, or impacted by bad luck that will be different next year. 

Edited May 3, 2021 by ngbills

[Arm of Harm]

12 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

49 negative emojis, Congratulations! You’re the new leader in Most Ridiculous Thread category!

 

I gave the OP a thumbs up. My one positive emoji is more important than the 49 negatives! 😉 

[BillsFan692]

"Here is a bunch of ways in which the other teams improved" *draft picks draft picks free agents* all unknown commodities. Yet when you get to reviewing the bills roster moves you don't even mention any of their draft picks? 

I mean what the f? Our oline was so-so and suspect at times especially in the running game and especially with injuries. We attacked it aggressively and brought a nice prospect in from the third round. 

Our D-Line sucked major and couldn't get pressure on anyone which meant even when allen was putting up 30 the other team was always in the game. Hail mary's galore. What did we do? We went out and added two D-Linemen with high potential. Major Upgrade, if we get more pressure on the QB this season and more production out of guys like Oliver and Hughes we are going to be putting a hurting on these teams which is only going to give allen that many more opportunities with the ball.  But from some reason the only thing you can make mention of in your synopsis is Star? o.O

It's like you totally ignore that we added a speedy running back and a UDFA Tight End that a lot of people are high about. I'm not saying those are impact signings necessarily, but since you give all the other teams full credit for all of their signings I don't see why you would treat the bills so differently?

Edited May 4, 2021 by BillsFan692

[BruceVilanch]

I haven't combed through the 16 pages, so sorry if this has already been said, but I do believe the Browns are going to be a problem for the next few years, I do think we are better though. But something that I think is worth bringing up is Baker plays WAAAAY worse when OBJ is playing and he is coming back this year, Baker force feeds OBJ and tries to play outside himself to get him the ball. I think the browns go as far as baker, and he is still a QB i wouldn't trust in the 4th if he were on my team.  But top to bottom the browns are incredibly talented and if everything clicks they are definitely a contender.

[BarleyNY]

4 hours ago, BillsFan692 said:

"Here is a bunch of ways in which the other teams improved" *draft picks draft picks free agents* all unknown commodities. Yet when you get to reviewing the bills roster moves you don't even mention any of their draft picks? 

I mean what the f? Our oline was so-so and suspect at times especially in the running game and especially with injuries. We attacked it aggressively and brought a nice prospect in from the third round. 

Our D-Line sucked major and couldn't get pressure on anyone which meant even when allen was putting up 30 the other team was always in the game. Hail mary's galore. What did we do? We went out and added two D-Linemen with high potential. Major Upgrade, if we get more pressure on the QB this season and more production out of guys like Oliver and Hughes we are going to be putting a hurting on these teams which is only going to give allen that many more opportunities with the ball.  But from some reason the only thing you can make mention of in your synopsis is Star? o.O

It's like you totally ignore that we added a speedy running back and a UDFA Tight End that a lot of people are high about. I'm not saying those are impact signings necessarily, but since you give all the other teams full credit for all of their signings I don't see why you would treat the bills so differently?

I don’t think most people are expecting much from late round picks and UDFAs, well, really ever, but especially in their rookie seasons.  It happens, but not often and not predictably.  Nor do we expect much of a contribution (hopefully) from a backup tackle.  Literally a player who, if he does see the field for an extended period of time, it’s because Dawkins or Williams got injured.

 

There certainly can be contributions from Rousseau and Basham, especially by later in the season.  But they’ll be starting as backup/rotational players and going from there.  They are looked at much more as long term (next season and beyond) contributors.  
 

Free agency really didn’t help the team beyond maintaining continuity, which is often the right move, but doesn’t really move the needle forward.  Sanders and Brieda are good depth but I’d rather have had a player like Brown to stretch the defense.  We missed him when he went out last season.  We get Star back so at least Oliver gets to play more 3T, but who knows what we’re going to get from him after a year off?  And it’s not like he was doing all that well before then.

 

I was hoping for a few pieces that could help the Bills get over the top this season, especially with keeping up with KC’s speed.  It’s unlikely that we got that unless our new DEs create enough pressure quickly enough to be that difference.  That’s a tough sell for me.  

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, BillsFan692 said:

"Here is a bunch of ways in which the other teams improved" *draft picks draft picks free agents* all unknown commodities. Yet when you get to reviewing the bills roster moves you don't even mention any of their draft picks? 

 

The OP could be correct about his order of teams, the OP could be incorrect about his order of teams, but his analysis of the Chiefs and of the Bills off season moves was, IMO, really shallow and missed a lot of points (Chiefs I discussed above).  He's doubling down on it, though, so whatever.

 

The major point is the Chiefs remain the team to beat in the AFC until proven otherwise.  And the Bills made a strong case for being their biggest threat.  If Allen shows his improvement was no fluke, IMO we remain that (biggest threat) until proven otherwise. 

 

The Browns had a worse defense and played a weaker schedule last season.  It's not a fluke that the Bills had a better record last season. They're a legit contender and on paper, they made moves to significantly improve themselves.  We'll see if they come to fruition.

 

So did the Bills, BTW.  The moves aren't sexy, but evidently the outcome of the honest assessment they did was that our problems were largely on the offensive and defensive lines.  We lacked the cap $$ to compete successfully for some splashy FA signings, so Beane's approach was to add competition/alternatives and strive for improvement that way.   It's not sexy but it's worked before.

 

 

[teef]

13 hours ago, ngbills said:

This thread has pointed out a few of the rules for posting on these boards:

 

• We are the experts above and beyond anyone else. Well, as long as it is positive towards the Bills and negative towards other teams. Thus positive takes on the Bills are genius and anything otherwise including positive on other teams is clueless. 
• Even further, no negative views allowed on the Bills. This includes any criticism of players, coaches, decisions. On the flipside no positive take on another team because that is considered to be negative on the Bills. 
• Everything the Bills do is earned and well deserved. Everything other teams do is lucky or not legit in some way.
• The Bills always could have done this or that if they wanted to.
• The moves the team makes are always good; The ones they don't either were dumb or have some obvious explainable reason why they did not. 
• Players on the Bills, even the marginable ones are always the best. Once they leave the Bills they were obviously awful the team they went to is overpaying.  
• We are always either building/following the process and not one player away, already have the best roster so dont need anything, or impacted by bad luck that will be different next year. 

this is a fun level of drama.

 

[corta765]

16 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

The Browns won a playoff game.... Does that mean they are now ready to take the next step?

 

Why do fans consistently think success is linear. Like you need baby steps before you win a SB? It doesn't always work that way.

 

Oh god I am not saying that at all. The Eagles went SB, playoff, playoff, out implosion, I completely understand things change quick. My point is simply last year the Browns didn't have the pressure of being one of those big teams. It exists this year whereas Buffalo has been through it and proved some chops last year. Let me ask you this if the Browns do the Bills 2020 season win their division, 12 games, and make the AFC title would you think of their season is a success or progress? I would say yes considering how far they haven't done those things plus their division is really tough. I think for Bills fans at this point anything less then SB in the next bunch of years will seem like failure and I am fine with that. I am not expecting either four straight SB's its really tough to get to one, but in the next 5-7 years if they don't make the SB I'd say they missed their shot. If they do make at least one I'd say goal achieved. Higher expectations but they also proved they should have those expectations.

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

14 hours ago, ngbills said:

This thread has pointed out a few of the rules for posting on these boards:

 

• We are the experts above and beyond anyone else. Well, as long as it is positive towards the Bills and negative towards other teams. Thus positive takes on the Bills are genius and anything otherwise including positive on other teams is clueless. 
• Even further, no negative views allowed on the Bills. This includes any criticism of players, coaches, decisions. On the flipside no positive take on another team because that is considered to be negative on the Bills. 
• Everything the Bills do is earned and well deserved. Everything other teams do is lucky or not legit in some way.
• The Bills always could have done this or that if they wanted to.
• The moves the team makes are always good; The ones they don't either were dumb or have some obvious explainable reason why they did not. 
• Players on the Bills, even the marginable ones are always the best. Once they leave the Bills they were obviously awful the team they went to is overpaying.  
• We are always either building/following the process and not one player away, already have the best roster so dont need anything, or impacted by bad luck that will be different next year. 

You forgot the following rule...

- Anyone that is challenged on a negative Bills post must act like they are unfairly persecuted and that they are the only knowledgeable, objective voice on the forum.

               *Extra points if you can be condescending about it.

[cle23]

17 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

The Browns won a playoff this past season after the Steelers went out and spotted them a 21 point lead.  

 

The first 7, sure. But why if Buffalo did something is it them "making plays" but if Cleveland did it, it's the other team spotting them points? That's how things are presented here. 

 

I think both teams will be in the hunt next year. Buffalo plays in a MUCH easier division, so that'll help the record portion, but I think both teams are pretty even right now. Allen is better than Mayfield right now, but Mayfield has had a much harder situation in his career so far. Mayfield will never be Allen in terms of ability, but he can still be a top tier QB. I also don't think Allen would be who he is today if he changed HC and OC as many times as Cleveland did in 3 years.

 

Cleveland is much more balanced then Buffalo. Buffalo has"proven" it longer. But Cleveland I feel had finally figured out the GM and HC situations, so going forward both teams should be good. Remember, Cleveland's current GM wanted McDermott, not Hue Jackson. D And he wanted Stefanski last year, but Freddie Kitchens. 

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

8 minutes ago, cle23 said:

 

The first 7, sure. But why if Buffalo did something is it them "making plays" but if Cleveland did it, it's the other team spotting them points? That's how things are presented here. 

 

I think both teams will be in the hunt next year. Buffalo plays in a MUCH easier division, so that'll help the record portion, but I think both teams are pretty even right now. Allen is better than Mayfield right now, but Mayfield has had a much harder situation in his career so far. Mayfield will never be Allen in terms of ability, but he can still be a top tier QB. I also don't think Allen would be who he is today if he changed HC and OC as many times as Cleveland did in 3 years.

 

Cleveland is much more balanced then Buffalo. Buffalo has"proven" it longer. But Cleveland I feel had finally figured out the GM and HC situations, so going forward both teams should be good. Remember, Cleveland's current GM wanted McDermott, not Hue Jackson. D And he wanted Stefanski last year, but Freddie Kitchens. 

Coaching and coordinators have been an advantage for Allen, but Allen had much less to work with as far as WRs, RBs, and TEs in 2018 and to a lesser extent in 2019.  Allen had possibly the worst receiving core in the NFL in 2018.

 

Mayfield's offensive weapons in 2018 : Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb, David Njoku, Antonio Callaway

Allen's offensive weapons in 2018  : Kelvin Benjamin, Zay Jones, 30 year old LeSean McCoy, Charles Clay

Mayfield 2019 : OBJ, Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb, David Njoku

Allen 2019 : John Brown, Cole Beasley, Dawson Knox, Devin Singletary

 

 

[Patrick Duffy]

23 minutes ago, cle23 said:

 

The first 7, sure. But why if Buffalo did something is it them "making plays" but if Cleveland did it, it's the other team spotting them points? That's how things are presented here. 

 

I think both teams will be in the hunt next year. Buffalo plays in a MUCH easier division, so that'll help the record portion, but I think both teams are pretty even right now. Allen is better than Mayfield right now, but Mayfield has had a much harder situation in his career so far. Mayfield will never be Allen in terms of ability, but he can still be a top tier QB. I also don't think Allen would be who he is today if he changed HC and OC as many times as Cleveland did in 3 years.

 

Cleveland is much more balanced then Buffalo. Buffalo has"proven" it longer. But Cleveland I feel had finally figured out the GM and HC situations, so going forward both teams should be good. Remember, Cleveland's current GM wanted McDermott, not Hue Jackson. D And he wanted Stefanski last year, but Freddie Kitchens. 

 

I think Browns, as far as the past season goes anyway, had the better ground game. I think Allen is better than Baker. Even though PM went out the playoff game a little early, I would say the D of Bills and Browns are fairly close. Maybe give slight edge to Browns.

 

So both teams are pretty close.

[Arm of Harm]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The major point is the Chiefs remain the team to beat in the AFC until proven otherwise.  And the Bills made a strong case for being their biggest threat.  If Allen shows his improvement was no fluke, IMO we remain that (biggest threat) until proven otherwise.  . . . 

 

We lacked the cap $$ to compete successfully for some splashy FA signings, so Beane's approach was to add competition/alternatives and strive for improvement that way.   It's not sexy but it's worked before.

 

 

 

Your perspective differs from mine. I believe that the Browns are the biggest threat to unseat the Chiefs, until proven otherwise. 

 

Imagine a scale with which to measure defensive effectiveness. A defense which allows a touchdown every drive is 0% effective, a defense which pitches a shutout is 100% effective. Using a scale like that, the Bills defense was 22% effective against the Chiefs offense in the AFC Championship Game. The Browns defense was 53% effective in their postseason game against the Chiefs. While Allen is a better QB than Mayfield, the differential is not great enough to compensate for the Browns defense having been over twice as effective vs the Chiefs. 

 

As you pointed out, the Bills lacked the cap space for major free agent signings. The Chiefs and Browns did sign important/good free agents. At least on paper, the Chiefs and Browns improved to a greater degree than the Bills. 

 

Do I think that the Bills can turn themselves into the biggest threat to the Chiefs? Yes I do. But, that's going to be on McDermott and Frazier to come up with a much better scheme or plan than the one they deployed in the AFC Championship Game. In that game they had the defensive talent to be more than 22% effective, and it was largely the fault of the scheme or plan that the effectiveness was so limited. There are also other opportunities to improve. Hopefully our WRs will be healthy for the postseason. With the addition of Lamp, the OL may be able to do a much better job this postseason than the bad performance it provided for all three postseason games from last season. Do the Bills have a realistic shot at winning the AFC Championship Game? Absolutely. But from where I sit, the Bills are currently in third place in that particular race, and will need to scratch, claw, and fight with everything they have if they want to move into first. 

Edited May 4, 2021 by Arm of Harm

[TheFunPolice]

Browns feel like a bigger threat than the Chiefs right now, honestly. 

 

Chiefs are cocky and one-dimensional. that dimension is amazing, but when it's off it's really off. Teams have been catching on lately, and KC, while still great, is not blowing teams out so often anymore. Kc is very streaky. Lots of points at once, then long periods of nothing. 

 

Browns are solid on both sides and hungry. 

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

It does feel like we are at a slight disadvantage on the O-Line and offense weapons. We are probably 1 more year of good drafting and another weapon in FA.

[billsrul120]

1 hour ago, Arm of Harm said:

 

Your perspective differs from mine. I believe that the Browns are the biggest threat to unseat the Chiefs, until proven otherwise. 

 

Imagine a scale with which to measure defensive effectiveness. A defense which allows a touchdown every drive is 0% effective, a defense which pitches a shutout is 100% effective. Using a scale like that, the Bills defense was 22% effective against the Chiefs offense in the AFC Championship Game. The Browns defense was 53% effective in their postseason game against the Chiefs. While Allen is a better QB than Mayfield, the differential is not great enough to compensate for the Browns defense having been over twice as effective vs the Chiefs. 

 

As you pointed out, the Bills lacked the cap space for major free agent signings. The Chiefs and Browns did sign important/good free agents. At least on paper, the Chiefs and Browns improved to a greater degree than the Bills. 

 

Do I think that the Bills can turn themselves into the biggest threat to the Chiefs? Yes I do. But, that's going to be on McDermott and Frazier to come up with a much better scheme or plan than the one they deployed in the AFC Championship Game. In that game they had the defensive talent to be more than 22% effective, and it was largely the fault of the scheme or plan that the effectiveness was so limited. There are also other opportunities to improve. Hopefully our WRs will be healthy for the postseason. With the addition of Lamp, the OL may be able to do a much better job this postseason than the bad performance it provided for all three postseason games from last season. Do the Bills have a realistic shot at winning the AFC Championship Game? Absolutely. But from where I sit, the Bills are currently in third place in that particular race, and will need to scratch, claw, and fight with everything they have if they want to move into first. 

This completely discounts the fact that Mahomes busted up his toe against the Browns and then was later removed from the game.  Mahomes in the first half against the Browns was 19-33 for 233 with a touchdown throwing and running.  If he doesn't get hurt or get taken out of the game I'm confident the Chiefs score more points.  Can you tell me the efficacy rate of the Chargers defense against the Chiefs in week 17?  Maybe Mcdermott and Frazier can steal their plan.

[Patrick Duffy]

1 hour ago, TheFunPolice said:

Browns feel like a bigger threat than the Chiefs right now, honestly. 

 

Chiefs are cocky and one-dimensional. that dimension is amazing, but when it's off it's really off. Teams have been catching on lately, and KC, while still great, is not blowing teams out so often anymore. Kc is very streaky. Lots of points at once, then long periods of nothing. 

 

Browns are solid on both sides and hungry. 

Yeah it's clear that if you want to hang with Chiefs you most definitely need a pass rush that can get to PM. If not you're going to get whooped. Far as the Browns I agree. They are for sure a good, solid all around team. Their ground game is pretty good and I believe that's what is keeping Baker's head above water for the most part.

 

I for sure think if you control the ground game and make Baker beat you, that can give any team a good chance to win. I just don't believe ( for now anyways) that Baker is good enough if the ground games is taken away and he has to make more plays to win.

 

Of course he could also continue to grow and get better, but if I'm picking between Baker and Allen to win a game with it all on their shoulders, it's Allen hands down. And not even close imo. So because of that alone, I think the Bills get the edge.

[Arm of Harm]

30 minutes ago, billsrul120 said:

This completely discounts the fact that Mahomes busted up his toe against the Browns and then was later removed from the game.  Mahomes in the first half against the Browns was 19-33 for 233 with a touchdown throwing and running.  If he doesn't get hurt or get taken out of the game I'm confident the Chiefs score more points.  Can you tell me the efficacy rate of the Chargers defense against the Chiefs in week 17?  Maybe Mcdermott and Frazier can steal their plan.

 

If you look only at those portions of the Chiefs/Browns playoff game where Mahomes played (including the drive where he got hurt), the Browns defense was 34% efficient. Not as high an efficiency rating as their 53% for the game as a whole, but still better than the 22% efficiency of the Bills defense. 

[Patrick Duffy]

3 minutes ago, Arm of Harm said:

 

If you look only at those portions of the Chiefs/Browns playoff game where Mahomes played (including the drive where he got hurt), the Browns defense was 34% efficient. Not as high an efficiency rating as their 53% for the game as a whole, but still better than the 22% efficiency of the Bills defense. 

Here's a question for everyone, if it was the Bills instead of the Browns when PM went out that game....... Do you think the Bills D could have done better than the Browns D did against Chiefs QB2?

Edited May 4, 2021 by Patrick_Duffy

[BarleyNY]

4 minutes ago, Arm of Harm said:

 

If you look only at those portions of the Chiefs/Browns playoff game where Mahomes played (including the drive where he got hurt), the Browns defense was 34% efficient. Not as high an efficiency rating as their 53% for the game as a whole, but still better than the 22% efficiency of the Bills defense. 

It’s going to be a very different Browns defense this season too.