1. Chiefs 2. Browns 3. Bills

[Augie]

9 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Excluding QBs, the Browns are more talented....at least right now. Bills fans just don’t want to see it that way. 
 

Again the difference is Allen is elite and Baker isn’t but is still good..... but they are just loaded inside and out. Bills still have holes in the secondary and the skills position, outside of WR, is pretty meh. Can’t say the same for the Browns. They have Hunt and Chubb and Hooper. Again, stacked everywhere. 
 

A game between these two teams would be a coin flip IMO and I can’t understand why Bills fans would be surprised if we did lose to them.... 

 

Really all it takes is a slight regression from Allen and a slight improvement from Baker and the Browns will be looked at as the favorite/better team.
 

 

I agree Josh wins on the QB front, but I suspect we also win on coaching, despite what some might think. Too soon to have a solid feel for the Browns. 

 

I agree that those who think we are alone chasing the Chiefs are taking a lot for granted. You have to come out and prove it every year. Nothing is given, it has to be earned. 

[Dr.Sack]

The most important thing is getting the high seed. IF the playoffs have to go through B’lo I love our chances. Kelce is 32 this year and won’t be the top dog forever. Plus at his age is when injuries start occurring. He’s been incredibly healthy as has Hill. Generally the team’s that win it are the teams that stay healthy. 

[transplantbillsfan]

[SCBills]

33 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

I agree Josh wins on the QB front, but I suspect we also win on coaching, despite what some might think. Too soon to have a solid feel for the Browns. 

 

I agree that those who think we are alone chasing the Chiefs are taking a lot for granted. You have to come out and prove it every year. Nothing is given, it has to be earned. 

Our coaching is pretty top notch, but they really need to figure out KC.  Both game plans last year were hilariously awful.  

[Arm of Harm]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm long time gone on the record about not being a fan of various "advanced metrics".  De gustibus and all that.

 

Here's my thing about Mayfield.  He's undoubtedly talented.  But even last year, while he clearly improved, he had games where he played very well, and he had other games we (and the national media) would have been filleting him for, if he were a Bill.  He had 9 games of ~200 yds or less and a 10th of 224 yds.  He had 7 games where his completion % was less than 60%.  He had 4 games where he didn't pass for a TD, and 2 more where he passed for only one.  He had 3 games where his INTs equaled or exceeded his TDs.  IDK, I guess advanced metrics tell a better picture than all that simple straightforward stuff?

 

People dump on Mayfield unfairly at times, but IMHO he also gets a bit of a "pass" for having been annointed by the analytics crowd pre-draft - the "halo" effect.  If he can take another step and be more consistent week to week, that would be an improvement.

 

Below are the yards per pass attempt and QB rating for some QBs:

Baker Mayfield (2020): 7.3    95.9

Tom Brady (career): 7.5      97.3

Joe Flacco (career): 6.8     84.1

Josh Allen (2020): 7.9     107.2

 

As you can see from the above numbers, Baker Mayfield's 2020 season was solid, and Josh Allen's 2020 season was sick. It is absolutely possible for a team to win the Super Bowl while its QB puts up numbers similar to those of Baker Mayfield in 2020. But, the team in question would need to be well-balanced, with a good defense and good running game. 

[Nihilarian]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Here's my thing about Mayfield.  He's undoubtedly talented.  But even last year, while he clearly improved, he had games where he played very well, and he had other games we (and the national media) would have been filleting him for, if he were a Bill.  He had 9 games of ~200 yds or less and a 10th of 224 yds.  He had 7 games where his completion % was less than 60%.  He had 4 games where he didn't pass for a TD, and 2 more where he passed for only one.  He had 3 games where his INTs equaled or exceeded his TDs.  IDK, I guess advanced metrics tell a better picture than all that simple straightforward stuff?

 

People dump on Mayfield unfairly at times, but IMHO he also gets a bit of a "pass" for having been annointed by the analytics crowd pre-draft - the "halo" effect.  If he can take another step and be more consistent week to week, that would be an improvement.

While so many think the Cleveland Browns are better than the Bills need to look at Josh Allen as the #5 passer in 2020 and Bake Mayfield at #18! Yea, right behind Teddy Bridgewater...Goff was #14...Rivers was #10. 

 

Cleveland was the #3 rushing team in the NFL with Chubb as their leading rusher behind the Titans and Ravens with a 4.8 YPC avg. This Browns rushing offense helped Mayfield immensely! 

 

Conversely, the Browns were #24 in passing yards in 2020 while the Bills were 3rd behind KC, TB. 

 

Buffalo fielded the #14 overall defense in 2020, Cleveland finished #17. 

 

The Buffalo Bills don't play the Browns during the 2021 regular season. Falcons-Panthers-Texans-Colts-Steelers-HOME

 

Jaguars-Saints-Tampa Bay-Titans-Chiefs-ROAD

 

As I see it, the Chiefs defense was exposed during the super bowl for so much holding that they got away with against the Buffalo Bills in that AFC Championship game! Tony Romo calling it a "Sticky defense"! While the Bills receivers were playing somewhat injured in that game.

It was more of the holding on defense and offense that KC got away with that the Refs simply didn't allow in that Super Bowl. 

 

 

It's going to interesting to see how things play out for the 2021 season.

The Jets gotta be better than 32nd in passing with a better line, run game to go along with that Rookie QB.

 

The Patriots were the #1 defense in 2019 and they will be getting those 8 players back who opted out for the 2020 season. They improved in 2021 simply by having a full off season to get ready. They got their future QB in the first round who has to be better than Can Newton was or is... 

 

The Dolphins will have a full off season for Tua to get ready for 2021. Their defense was very good last year and their offense might just catch up with Waddle at WR. 

 

 

One thing I'm very grateful about is that Deshaun Watson is not a QB in the AFC East and may not even be viable in 2021 until his lawsuits are settled. 

 

The Bills have the 23rd strength of schedule. KC has 11th. Cleveland has the 9th. \

 

https://eatdrinkandsleepfootball.com/schedule/strength-of-schedule.html 

[machine gun kelly]

Inigo, thanks for the courage to write this thread.  Although I completely agree Allen trumps Mayfield all day long, it’s silly to not see what the Browns have done this off season.  I’m not sure even with all of the line talent the Chiefs bought will help as they have to gel.  
 

im not force ranking, but the teams to watch IMO in the AFC this year are the following:

 

Chiefs

Bills

Browns

Colts
Ravens

Chargers (simply because I think Herbert is going to be special at some point)

 

I want to say the Dolphins, but until Tua figures it out, they may have a very talented team now, but Tua has to do his growing pains like Allen before I’ll believe in him.

 

Ill still make my conservative prediction for us at 12-5 (don’t forget that 17th game, amd yes it’s weird to say that one). I think we’ll finish better than this guess. But then again last year I predicted 11-5 throughout the off season and was very, very pleasantly surprised with 13-3.

[78thealltimegreat]

7 hours ago, Putin said:

I’m freaking terrified of all the QB’s in our division will be facing this year !! 

Can’t you say the same thing about those teams having to play Josh Allen?

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

Our coaching is pretty top notch, but they really need to figure out KC.  Both game plans last year were hilariously awful.  

Daboll apologized to the team after the AFC title game and even admitted he called a terrible game that’s what he gets for spending part of the week worried about the San Diego job and not concentrating on the task at hand and Frazier and McDermott just didn’t have the horses to rush the passer the way the Bucs did hopefully the draft helped with that 

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, NewEra said:

gotcha.  I’m can dig the majority of that 

the bolded, maybe not so much.  What you are saying about the chiefs OL you can say about literally every acquisition every team makes.  It depends if.....because we haven’t seen them in play.  But this is the offseason and all talk about next season is a projection.  A projection based on last seasons play and past season.  We don’t know if Trevor Lawrence will be better than Mike Glennon.,..but we can project based on what we’ve seen.  Most people that know football would agree that the Chiefs OL is one of the best OLs on paper.  Last year, they had one of the worst OLs on paper (but wasn’t terrible until fisher went down).  The projection is that their OL will be better, if not monumentally better..  we don’t “know” that they will be....but we also don’t “know” anything about anyone in may

 

Agree with this. I don't think anyone who has seen Eric Fisher's NFL career and has watched Orlando Brown play in the league could honestly consider the former a better player than the latter. Is there a chance it doesn't work out in KC for him? Sure. But no more than there is a chance that any player changing teams doesn't work out. Likewise Joe Thuney. Those two are pretty sure things in my view.

[UKBillFan]

This might be unpopular but my concern is our actions within free agency and the draft have, for this year, resulted in us seemingly standing still. Of course this is a projection and maybe Rousseau and Basham will perform HoFs from the off and give us an edge (pun intended), but it feels like we’re looking into the longer term rather than what happens this year which might bite us in the shorter term. The Browns and The Dolphins had better positions in the draft so should have the upper hand in that regard but the Chiefs?

 

We’ll see what happens but am I as confident of making the Championship game (let alone the Super Bowl) now compared to before the draft? No, not at this moment.

[ClaytonBillsFan]

The Browns had a negative point differential last year. That's all. 

[Bobby Hooks]

14 hours ago, Jay_Fixit said:

I bet you don’t talk to your mother like that!

You thumbs downin’ me, bro?! 

 

Imagine my surprise to wake up to a downed thumb on my post, only to find out it’s you? Imagine that for a second. 

 

Seriously, take a step back, close your eyes and imagine how that must have felt for me. 

 

Unbelievable. I need some time to unpack this. You owe me pal. And I’m talking grandiose gesture, none of that lame Valentine’s Day of 2013 nonsense. 

[Big Gun]

16 hours ago, RobbRiddick said:

A brave post! But one I agree with. Browns are a damn good team and if Mayfield continues to improve will be really tough to beat. They've also got the Steelers monkey off their backs and I'd be surprised if they didn't win that division with ease

This just in, the BILLS are a damn good team with a better QB and will be even tougher to beat than the Browns! 

[Captain Hindsight]

The Bills would have absolutely destroyed the Browns in the AFC Championship game if Cleveland could have just stopped Chad Henne

[JGMcD2]

19 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 If you look at the playoffs last year, the Browns came within a fumbled football out of the endzone from beating the Chiefs.

This is a convenient reframing of the truth...  the fumble occurred in the first half of the game and the Mahomes missed part of the 3rd Q and all of the 4th.

 

Don’t make it sound so close 😂

[billsfan1959]

19 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

The Chiefs entered the off season after getting man handled in the Super Bowl because their O-line had fallen apart.  They blew up their O-line and decided to rebuild.  On paper at least, they look to have improved the line.  They signed Joe Thuney to a 5 year $80 million contract and he will slide into the left guard position.  They then signed Kyle Long to a one year deal to step into the right guard position.  They resigned Mike Remmers to play right tackle and then traded with the Ravens for Orlando Brown to step in as their left tackle.  They signed Austin Blythe from the Rams to play center, and then drafted the 2nd ranked center, Creed Humphrey, to push Blythe and develop into their future center.  The only free agent they lost of any consequence was Sammy Watkins which should not slow them down much.

 

I think on the whole the O-line is upgraded and they kept the rest of the band together.  I don't see any reasonable argument to say the Chiefs shouldn't remain the #1 seed in the AFC heading into the 2021 season.

 

The Browns will leap frog us this season and be the primary threat to the Chiefs.   If you look at the playoffs last year, the Browns came within a fumbled football out of the endzone from beating the Chiefs.  The Bills by comparison didn't even make a game of it against the Chiefs.  The Browns' roster seems to match up better against the Chiefs, and that was before the Browns very impressive off season.

 

The defense was the weak side of the ball last season and the Browns attacked this off season with that in mind.  They snagged John Johnson the best free agent safety on the market to address a huge weakness and also added CB Troy Hill who will be an instant upgrade.  They brought in Clowney to stack opposite Miles Garrett on the D-line.  They then drafted CB Greg Newsome and LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah who should both start this season.  The Browns bring back their offense intact and Mayfield will have the benefit of playing in the same offense for the first time in his career.  OBJ will also be back this season.

 

The Bills did a great job of resigning their key free agents this year and also upgraded the backup QB position.  They brought in Sanders to replace Brown which could be an up grade and added Hollister to the TE room.  We all hope that having Star back will have a ripple effect on the D-line and result in better play across the entire line and allow our LB play to improve as well.  The entire team will benefit from another year of coaching and scheme stability and hopefully some of our young players like Oliver and Edmunds will take a step forward this year.

 

 

Overview   A lot is made of the Bills retaining their own talent, and I agree that Beane did a great job of maintaining a roster that made it to the AFC Championship game, but the uncomfortable truth is that the Chiefs maintained their roster too AND improved their O-Line.   The Browns also avoided any key free agency loses AND improved their defensive secondary and brought in Clowney on the D-line.  The Browns and Chiefs will also benefit from another year of coaching and scheme stability just like the Bills.

 

The off season isn't over yet, but the free agency period is winding down and the Draft is over.  Baring injuries, any changes to the rosters of the Chiefs, Browns, and Bills before opening weekend will likely just be on the margins before opening weekend.  When Andy Reid looks out across the AFC, I think he is probably more worried about what is going on in Cleveland than what is going on in Buffalo.  I think the Browns have improved enough this off season to move past us and become the primary threat to the Chiefs this year. 

 

At this point I'd rank the AFC;    1. Chiefs  2. Browns  3. Bills

 

Good post, my friend, and well thought out. I am not sure if the Browns, as a team, are better on the field this year than the Bills; however, I do think it is a legitimate argument. What is more important to me is not whether the Bills are the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd best team in the AFC, but that we can make a legitimate argument that they are one of the best teams in the AFC (and entire NFL), and capable of reaching and winning a Superbowl. I have been a die hard fan of this team since the late 60s and lived through relatively few seasons in that span (53 yrs) in which that argument was a legitimate one. It's a nice feeling to have again. I am hoping it stays around for a long time. 

[machine gun kelly]

As Adrienne from the Burgh says (he’s a regular on MTC and kind of annoying) I’m not worried about the Hash Browns yet.

 

Like every FA and draft it’s about hope and when you’re close to the leader you should expect other teams trying to close the gap.  More pundits than not now think we are the closest to the Chiefs in the AFC.

 

One thing was for sure this weekend, Beane pivoted his philosophy somewhat in that we used to have need meet BPA.  Now he really showed BPA.  This team now likes t bet on themselves in development and FWIW, I think they did it.  They bolstered a D Line for the future an LD a little now.  Addison and Hughes probably won’t be here in a year.  They bolstered their O Line with 5 guys.  Those guys will add a lot of depth.

 

not sure on the other three but should be fun.  I think beane is just getting started in the UDFA market.  Should be fun in the other thread what he does moving forward.

 

Go Bills!

 

20-0 baby.  Still trying to get used to that 17th game.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 hours ago, Arm of Harm said:

 

Below are the yards per pass attempt and QB rating for some QBs:

Baker Mayfield (2020): 7.3    95.9

Tom Brady (career): 7.5      97.3

Joe Flacco (career): 6.8     84.1

Josh Allen (2020): 7.9     107.2

 

As you can see from the above numbers, Baker Mayfield's 2020 season was solid, and Josh Allen's 2020 season was sick. It is absolutely possible for a team to win the Super Bowl while its QB puts up numbers similar to those of Baker Mayfield in 2020. But, the team in question would need to be well-balanced, with a good defense and good running game. 

 

It’s absolutely possible to win a Super Bowl with a QB like Mayfield under center.  I would say, though, that the run game and D have to be better than good.  They have to be top notch.

[TFBillsfan]

On paper, the Browns look very solid. They also have the benefit of playing a 3rd placed schedule since they finished behind Pitt and Balt. The Ravens and Indy all made improvements as well. The AFC is loaded and IF somehow Rodgers goes to Denver, they are immediately SB contenders. We are pretty much rolling out the same ball in the upcoming season, hoping stability improves our running game, that our offense will continue to flourish without defenses adjusting to our scheme forcing us to run and that drafting two very raw DE’s somehow improves our pass rush. I love our Bills as much as anyone, but I think it’s going to be a dogfight to win the division and objectively feel like in the upper tier of the AFC, we’ve slipped while our competitors were aggressive on adding contributors that will make impacts this season. We are putting so much stock/expecting that Josh will have a similar season as last year. In the NFL, your window of opportunity is small and IMO I’m not confident the Bills are seizing on this moment in their franchise history. Hoping I have to eat crow!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Captain Hindsight said:

The Bills would have absolutely destroyed the Browns in the AFC Championship game if Cleveland could have just stopped Chad Henne

 

Sorry, but KC had the lead when Mahomes went out.

 

Where the Brownies got robbed is on that end zone fumble.  That should have been a PF against Sorensen.