1. Chiefs 2. Browns 3. Bills

[NewEra]

13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I know you're exaggerating to make a point, but I think in this instance, it's really belittling the point I was making to compare it to saying "we don't know if Trevor Lawrence will be better than Mike Glennon".

 

The Chiefs had a very good LT in Eric Fisher for 7 years with 2 probowl appearances.  He was consistent, competent, and durable.

 

Orlando Brown played LT in college, but failed to compete for the LT role with the Ravens.  He's played a total of 8 games at LT this past season, so he doesn't have a 3 year history as a top-quality NFL LT.  Moreover, can we agree that the Ravens offense with Lamar Jackson at QB is relatively unique in the NFL, and differs in multiple regards from the offense KC runs?

 

On paper, the Chiefs have greatly improved their OL, and I applaud the Chiefs for the various moves they made.  But on Sunday, I think it's a bit of an open question as to whether Brown will work out at LT for the Chiefs as well as he stepped into the role for the Ravens. 

 

I don't think it's nearly as far-fetched as comparing Trevor Lawrence and Mike Glennon for the reasons stated above.

Sorry you see that as belittling your comment.  Wasn’t my intention. Yes, it’s an exaggeration, but we’ve seen many #1 picks fail before.  Probably more so than pro bowl left tackles that failed switching schemes. 
 

Fisher was an average LT.  Orlando Brown played LT at an extremely high level last season.  Will he fit the scheme?  We’ll see, but most would agree that he will be an upgrade over fisher.  Add thuney, Creed, Long and the return of Niang and Duvernay-Tardiff.  Most are accepting of the thought that their OL will be much better

[Hapless Bills Fan]

18 minutes ago, Process said:

Are people just ignoring that they were 11-5 last season? In a year where they lost their #1 WR. And one of their losses was a game they were forced to play without any WRs because of Covid. 

 

They beat the Titans, who beat the crap out of us, and played the Chiefs way tougher then we did. 

 

They were already a really good team last year, it's not like they were garbage and just signed a bunch of guys this offseason.

 

There was biggest weakness last year was their pass defense. This was partly due to injuries and opt outs. Between getting guys back and offseason additions, they will be much better on D this year. 

 

It's definitely close between the two teams. I would expect all Bills fans to think Bills have the edge, and for Browns fans to think they do. 

 

Despite the Ravens being the betting favorites in their division, I think the Browns are the best team in the North. I would actually put the Chiefs, Browns and Bills in their own tier at the top of the conference. As far as the order, it's close enough where it's not even worth debating really. 

 

I wish we played them this year, I think it would be a great matchup. 

 

I don't think people are ignoring it, but it's being weighted mentally by who they played.  I'm not an analytics guru, but at the end of the season, it was calculated that the Bills (despite playing the Jets, Dolphins and Patriots twice) had the 21st hardest SOS (6th among the playoff teams) while the Browns had the 30th hardest SOS (12th among playoff teams). 

 

I mean, it's what we heard in 2019 when the Bills were 10-6, right?  "Who did they play?  Who did they beat?"

 

Question: do you really think losing OBJ had that big an effect on the Browns?  He did have a 1000+ yd season in 2019 with Baker, but he just didn't seem like he was ever in sync with him like a #1 WR, and he was #3 on the team in Y/G behind Landry and Higgins, #6 in Y/Tgt.

 

The Browns could be the best team in the North, but that kind of depends upon Baker taking a step IMO, and meanwhile Lamar Jackson not taking a step.

[dave mcbride]

9 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

1st Blythe....If KC carries 9 O lineman...he'd be the 9th one...I suppose that's probalby likely as I thikn they'd rather not ever have to move Thuney to C.  I should have included him in my write up.

 

2nd...that JAGS and their replacements...

 

Lets start with Kpassonagno.  I was pretty exicted when they drafted him (same class as Mahomes)  I thought they'd coach him up into something really great...he's a beast of man, that just is not and is never gong to be an instinctual football player.  This is problaby still the biggest hole on the roster as it now sits...KC drafted Josh Kaindoh in the 4th round....that is NOT a day 1 starter/answer to replace Kpass....Kaindoh is a project type in his own right.  KC has Mike Danna (a 5th round pick last year) who is more or less a JAG...and they have some guys who are undersized Defensive tackle types that are miscast as ends, but can play out there in Khalen Saunders and Tershawn Wharton.  If the season started today......Chris Jones would play DE on one side, and Clark on the other....the Jaron Reed signing allows for that to happen.   Basically, Kpass left and will be replaced by another JAG or JAGS, and/or Chris Jones on the outside quite a bit.  Something to watch for...Jones is an effective end when he's been used there.

 

Baushaud Breeland....started the season with a 4 game suspension....he has a reputation as a guy who enjoys his weed (I don't care) ....so maybe that's why he's not signed...perhaps there is another suspension coming we dont' know about yet....KC has been reported to be interested in having him back.  He remains an effective outside cover corner when on the field and fits what KC likes to do...I'd love to have him back if he's not going to be suspended etc.  That said...as of now he isn't on the roster.  KC did NOT draft a CB in this draft....they LOVE La'Jarious Sneed...led all rookie DB in alot of stuff....and was very effective all over the field and showed he could blitz....if you haven't heard of him yet...you will...he's LEGIT.  ...so Sneed, Charvarious Ward on the other side again...Rashad Fenton, who has been pretty good so far...plus Honey Badger, Thornhill and Sorenson all back again at Safety.  One of the deepest groups on the team, we can handle losing Breeland.

 

Damien Wilson.  A Jag when he was signed....played like a Jag....unspectacular player....never really could say he was mistake prone or anything...just never made any big plays....and was not good in coverage.  a JAG if there ever was one.  They drafted Willie Gay Jr in round 2 last year....started workign him onto the field more and more as the season went along..he DID show playmaking and coverage ability....and he will start there this year....almost certainly an upgrade.

 

And then there is Watkins.  I have never understood why KC poured the resources they did into this guy...Mahomes makes your 3rd, 45h and 5th targets look great as is...Watkins didn't bring anything to the group we didn't already have....and the 1st and 2nd guys in the pecking order Hill and Kelce are already bonafide stars.  The RB group is supposed to eat up a good share of targets...and then you have the otehr WR's.  KC won't notice Watkins is gone...and the guy they did draft....won't start, and won't make an impact this year..but he's in the pipeline.....for this year...Look for Byron Pringle to be the "Sammy Watkins" role player in this years offense...similar size and speed....but contract way way different....same result.  

 

Hope this was helpful.

Re watkins, he is a great, tough route runner, and it was notable to me that reid brought him in (despite the fact that he was injured) late in the SB after pringle and hardiman REPEATEDLY ran wrong routes. Mahomes was visibly furious about their lousy route-running in that game. Sammy at least could run the routes properly. He is a physical beast when healthy, but the leg injuries have really damaged his career. Still, he’s 20 times better than, say, Pringle when fully healthy.

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't think people are ignoring it, but it's being weighted mentally by who they played.  I'm not an analytics guru, but at the end of the season, it was calculated that the Bills (despite playing the Jets, Dolphins and Patriots twice) had the 21st hardest SOS (6th among the playoff teams) while the Browns had the 30th hardest SOS (12th among playoff teams). 

 

I mean, it's what we heard in 2019 when the Bills were 10-6, right?  "Who did they play?  Who did they beat?"

 

Question: do you really think losing OBJ had that big an effect on the Browns?  He did have a 1000+ yd season in 2019 with Baker, but he just didn't seem like he was ever in sync with him like a #1 WR, and he was #3 on the team in Y/G behind Landry and Higgins, #6 in Y/Tgt.

 

The Browns could be the best team in the North, but that kind of depends upon Baker taking a step IMO, and meanwhile Lamar Jackson not taking a step.

The AFC North was a more competitive division than the AFC East last season. They did get 4 games vs the NFC north, granted. 

Edited May 3, 2021 by dave mcbride

[Zerovoltz]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

Re watkins, he is a great, tough route runner, and it was notable to me that reid brought him (despite the fact that he was injured) in late in that game after pringle and hardiman REPEATEDLY ran wrong routes. Mahomes was visibly furious about their lousy route-running in that game. Sammy at leas could run the routes properly. He is a physical beast when healthy, but the leg injuries have really damaged his career. Still, he’s 20 times better than, say, Pringle when fully healthy.

 

Never healthy....and for what you pay the guy....it's not worth the money...he just misses to much time....he's a better fit on an up and coming team with a young QB who needs target to rely on to run precise routes etc....not so much on a team aleady loaded.....money would have been better spent....on.....O line.

[dave mcbride]

Just now, Zerovoltz said:

 

Never healthy....and for what you pay the guy....it's not worth the money...he just misses to much time....he's a better fit on an up and coming team with a young QB who needs target to rely on to run precise routes etc....not so much on a team aleady loaded.....money would have been better spent....on.....O line.

I get that, but the bad route running cost the Chiefs that SB as much as anything. It killed them in the first half.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

17 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Sorry you see that as belittling your comment.  Wasn’t my intention. Yes, it’s an exaggeration, but we’ve seen many #1 picks fail before.  Probably more so than pro bowl left tackles that failed switching schemes. 

 

No worries.  Fair point on the #1 picks failing, or at least not living up to the hype.  I don't think Lawrence has the traits of the guys who flamed out though.

 

Quote

Fisher was an average LT.  Orlando Brown played LT at an extremely high level last season.  Will he fit the scheme?  We’ll see, but most would agree that he will be an upgrade over fisher.  Add thuney, Creed, Long and the return of Niang and Duvernay-Tardiff.  Most are accepting of the thought that their OL will be much better

 

I understand the reasoning.  I feel that it's not a sure thing that Creed will be ready to start (though in Thuney, he should have a stalwart helping him, and I thought KC had signed a capable NFL center, @Zerovoltz evidently disagrees [edit or maybe he agrees and it just slipped his mind]).

 

And I could be totally off the mark here, but while I understand why KC made the decisions it made, I thought Fisher was an underrated LT, better than average, and I think there are some unique features of the Ravens O that may have helped Brown shine.  But we'll see.  He should certainly be motivated to excel!

 

That's just the vibe I have about it, maybe it's off the mark.  On paper I certainly agree KC made all the right moves to upgrade their OL impressively.

[SCBills]

25 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The last time buffalo played cleveland, mayfield (who is WAY better than what the homers here believe) outplayed Josh and Cleveland won.

I think Baker is good, but your post is wildly disingenuous.... Baker and Josh played in their respective Year 2’s.   
 

We’re now discussing the teams after each QB has played 3 seasons.  
 

Nobody here should care... at all... about a game between the two in 2019. 

[dave mcbride]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

No worries.  Fair point on the #1 picks failing, or at least not living up to the hype.  I don't think Lawrence has the traits of the guys who flamed out though.

 

 

I understand the reasoning.  I feel that it's not a sure thing that Creed will be ready to start (though in Thuney, he should have a stalwart helping him, and I thought KC had signed a capable NFL center, @Zerovoltz evidently disagrees).

 

And I could be totally off the mark here, but while I understand why KC made the decisions it made, I thought Fisher was an underrated LT, better than average, and I think there are some unique features of the Ravens O that may have helped Brown shine.  But we'll see.  He should certainly be motivated to excel!

 

That's just the vibe I have about it, maybe it's off the mark.  On paper I certainly agree KC made all the right moves to upgrade their OL impressively.

Fisher was better than average. The problem was that when he went down in garbage time vs. the Bills, the house of cards that was the KC o-line collapsed. If he had been healthy for the SB, they would have likely been ok. They didn’t retain him for an obvious reason: his contract is up after this upcoming season, and he won’t be available because of the achilles tear. They didn’t cut him because of performance.

Edited May 3, 2021 by dave mcbride

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

Lets start with Kpassonagno.  I was pretty exicted when they drafted him (same class as Mahomes)  I thought they'd coach him up into something really great...he's a beast of man, that just is not and is never gong to be an instinctual football player.  This is problaby still the biggest hole on the roster as it now sits...KC drafted Josh Kaindoh in the 4th round....that is NOT a day 1 starter/answer to replace Kpass....Kaindoh is a project type in his own right.  KC has Mike Danna (a 5th round pick last year) who is more or less a JAG...and they have some guys who are undersized Defensive tackle types that are miscast as ends, but can play out there in Khalen Saunders and Tershawn Wharton.  If the season started today......Chris Jones would play DE on one side, and Clark on the other....the Jaron Reed signing allows for that to happen.   Basically, Kpass left and will be replaced by another JAG or JAGS, and/or Chris Jones on the outside quite a bit.  Something to watch for...Jones is an effective end when he's been used there.

 

Baushaud Breeland....started the season with a 4 game suspension....he has a reputation as a guy who enjoys his weed (I don't care) ....so maybe that's why he's not signed...perhaps there is another suspension coming we dont' know about yet....KC has been reported to be interested in having him back.  He remains an effective outside cover corner when on the field and fits what KC likes to do...I'd love to have him back if he's not going to be suspended etc.  That said...as of now he isn't on the roster.  KC did NOT draft a CB in this draft....they LOVE La'Jarious Sneed...led all rookie DB in alot of stuff....and was very effective all over the field and showed he could blitz....if you haven't heard of him yet...you will...he's LEGIT.  ...so Sneed, Charvarious Ward on the other side again...Rashad Fenton, who has been pretty good so far...plus Honey Badger, Thornhill and Sorenson all back again at Safety.  One of the deepest groups on the team, we can handle losing Breeland.

 

Damien Wilson.  A Jag when he was signed....played like a Jag....unspectacular player....never really could say he was mistake prone or anything...just never made any big plays....and was not good in coverage.  a JAG if there ever was one.  They drafted Willie Gay Jr in round 2 last year....started workign him onto the field more and more as the season went along..he DID show playmaking and coverage ability....and he will start there this year....almost certainly an upgrade.

 

And then there is Watkins.  I have never understood why KC poured the resources they did into this guy...Mahomes makes your 3rd, 45h and 5th targets look great as is...Watkins didn't bring anything to the group we didn't already have....and the 1st and 2nd guys in the pecking order Hill and Kelce are already bonafide stars.  The RB group is supposed to eat up a good share of targets...and then you have the otehr WR's.  KC won't notice Watkins is gone...and the guy they did draft....won't start, and won't make an impact this year..but he's in the pipeline.....for this year...Look for Byron Pringle to be the "Sammy Watkins" role player in this years offense...similar size and speed....but contract way way different....same result.  

 

Hope this was helpful.

 

Very helpful, thanks...Basically what I get is they hope Willy Gay is ready to step into Wilson's role, they hope La'Jarious Sneed is ready to take over for Breeland (depth though?) and they really don't have someone replacing Kpassanagno, but they hope they can shift Chris Jones to DE and replace him with Jaron Reed, is that what I get? 

 

I think those are all reasonable suggestions, but they don't (to me) amount to "getting better" on D.

 

I do agree that the OL (on paper) should be vastly improved.  There's just something about the Orlando Brown move that twitches my 'huh' sensors...I hope it works out for you.

[Freddie's Dead]

Hello.  Your name is Inigo Montoya.  You insulted my Bills.  Prepare to die.

[dave mcbride]

5 minutes ago, SCBills said:

I think Baker is good, but your post is wildly disingenuous.... Baker and Josh played in their respective Year 2’s.   
 

We’re now discussing the teams after each QB has played 3 seasons.  
 

Nobody here should care... at all... about a game between the two in 2019. 

Wildly disingenuous? Mayfield was actually good last season. He is improving. He is not as good as Allen, but he is good (seriously, check out his advance metrics numbers from last season), and I think the Browns’s roster overall is probably more talented than the Bills. But it’s close, and coaching matters. Both coaches are good, but I’d take the Bills’ management over the Browns. Again, though, it’s tight. Stefanski did a great job last year.

Edited May 3, 2021 by dave mcbride

[Hapless Bills Fan]

15 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The AFC North was a more competitive division than the AFC East last season. They did get 4 games vs the NFC north, granted. 

 

No argument with the former, though Pittsburgh by the end of the season was a bit of a paper tiger IMO.  Browns also played the Jets 😈 albeit without several WR.

 

The point of the SOS thing though, is to take into account the entire schedule, and it did put the Browns SOS considerably lower than the Bills (30 vs 21)

[Inigo Montoya]

Just looked back at my OP and it has every face emoji except for the orange angry face guy.  That has to be some kind of record for a single post.  

 

I knew people wouldn't like my opinion but I had no idea it was going to blow up the message board. 

 

Inconceivable!

 

Cheers TBD

 

🍻

[Zerovoltz]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

No worries.  Fair point on the #1 picks failing, or at least not living up to the hype.  I don't think Lawrence has the traits of the guys who flamed out though.

 

 

I understand the reasoning.  I feel that it's not a sure thing that Creed will be ready to start (though in Thuney, he should have a stalwart helping him, and I thought KC had signed a capable NFL center, @Zerovoltz evidently disagrees).

 

And I could be totally off the mark here, but while I understand why KC made the decisions it made, I thought Fisher was an underrated LT, better than average, and I think there are some unique features of the Ravens O that may have helped Brown shine.  But we'll see.  He should certainly be motivated to excel!

 

That's just the vibe I have about it, maybe it's off the mark.  On paper I certainly agree KC made all the right moves to upgrade their OL impressively.

 

All of the bolded is LEGIT.  Fisher had grown from a bad LT, to barely adequate, to to decent, to above average....and as he grew, the extension he signed back in 15 or 16....that looked awful at first...became a bargain by last season.  And he would have been in the final year of that only costing like 11 million or something....Chump change for an above aveage LT that was good at pass protection......had Fisher not gotten hurt VS buffalo..KC would be be rolling with Fisher at LT again this year....they still would have upgraded the interior.  ....as far as Brown and the scheme in Baltimore VS the scheme in KC...YES....this is a legit concern...I think it's a factor in why Baltimore went ahead and pulled the trigger trading him to KC....I thiink the saw him as someone who was a much more polished run blocker than pass protector.  Also.....KC did NOT just turn around and sing him up to an extension once the trade was consumated.....this might turn out to be a big mistake on KC's part....because if Brown plays well at LT....and KC wants to keep him....it will cost a franchise tag or a block buster extension...like No.1 paid LT money most likely.  KC wants to make sure the guy can do the job at a high level before paying him.  

 

On that note....something to watch for with Brown....when he was in passing plays...his technique has been to engage his man early, and try and physically dominate him....because he can.....whereas KC's linemen have always been side stepper types...where you start out moving back and too the side to ride the man deep around a pocket.....so Mahomes is accustomed to having his tackles ride the pass rushes back and deep and around...and Mahomes will often then step up and out to the sides when he moves out of the pocket....so there is in fact some differences in Browns game that we will have to see how it all works out this preseason and early season games.

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

No argument with the former, though Pittsburgh by the end of the season was a bit of a paper tiger IMO.  Browns also played the Jets 😈 albeit without several WR.

 

The point of the SOS thing though, is to take into account the entire schedule, and it did put the Browns SOS considerably lower than the Bills (30 vs 21)

Excellent points, although I’ll add that the Bills got to play the Jets twice! The Bills played badly in both games (ie, self-inflicted wounds) and were plagued by mistakes, but still won relatively easily. The Jets were that bad.

[SCBills]

10 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Wildly disingenuous? Mayfield was actually good last season. He is improving. He is not as good as Allen, but he is good (seriously, check out his advance metrics numbers from last season), and I think the Browns’s roster overall is probably more talented than the Bills. But it’s close, and coaching matters. Both coaches are good, but I’d take the Bills’ management over the Browns. Again, though, it’s tight. Stefanski did a great job last year.

Fair enough, and I’ve been agreeing in this thread that the Browns have more proven talent than us.   We don’t disagree there.  
 

I just don’t know what a game between Josh and Baker from 2019 has to do with anything.  
 

In 2020, Baker was good.  Josh looked elite, and most years would have been MVP.  
 

Regardless of our roster differences (should our potential not be realized), if the chasm between Josh and Baker stays the same, we still are probably favorites against them.  
 

Edited May 3, 2021 by SCBills

[Utah John]

No team plays an entire season without some injuries.  The extent of injuries to key players will reshuffle the order of dominance.  Any team that loses its starting QB for more than a few games is just not going to be competitive.  Any team that loses more than two players at the same position is going to struggle.  We're just going to have to wait and watch.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Wildly disingenuous? Mayfield was actually good last season. He is improving. He is not as good as Allen, but he is good (seriously, check out his advance metrics numbers from last season), and I think the Browns’s roster overall is probably more talented than the Bills. But it’s close, and coaching matters. Both coaches are good, but I’d take the Bills’ management over the Browns. Again, though, it’s tight. Stefanski did a great job last year.

 

I'm long time gone on the record about not being a fan of various "advanced metrics".  De gustibus and all that.

 

Here's my thing about Mayfield.  He's undoubtedly talented.  But even last year, while he clearly improved, he had games where he played very well, and he had other games we (and the national media) would have been filleting him for, if he were a Bill.  He had 9 games of ~200 yds or less and a 10th of 224 yds.  He had 7 games where his completion % was less than 60%.  He had 4 games where he didn't pass for a TD, and 2 more where he passed for only one.  He had 3 games where his INTs equaled or exceeded his TDs.  IDK, I guess advanced metrics tell a better picture than all that simple straightforward stuff?

 

People dump on Mayfield unfairly at times, but IMHO he also gets a bit of a "pass" for having been annointed by the analytics crowd pre-draft - the "halo" effect.  If he can take another step and be more consistent week to week, that would be an improvement.

[Bookie Man]

Ah Buffalo and Cleveland are both contenders again. Gotta love that. If Bills D can step up, I think they'll be the top threat to KC. They've looked awfully soft on that side of the ball on a few occasions last season. Lack of pressure was the main culprit imo. That's why I loved picks 1 and 2. I expect offense to regress a little, but I expect D to improve a lot. Both can be top 10 easily. Should be fun to watch. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

24 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

Also.....KC did NOT just turn around and sing him up to an extension once the trade was consumated.....this might turn out to be a big mistake on KC's part....because if Brown plays well at LT....and KC wants to keep him....it will cost a franchise tag or a block buster extension...like No.1 paid LT money most likely.  KC wants to make sure the guy can do the job at a high level before paying him.  

 

On that note....something to watch for with Brown....when he was in passing plays...his technique has been to engage his man early, and try and physically dominate him....because he can.....whereas KC's linemen have always been side stepper types...where you start out moving back and too the side to ride the man deep around a pocket.....so Mahomes is accustomed to having his tackles ride the pass rushes back and deep and around...and Mahomes will often then step up and out to the sides when he moves out of the pocket....so there is in fact some differences in Browns game that we will have to see how it all works out this preseason and early season games.

 

You did a much better job of articulating one of the differences I see, Thanks!

 

And yes, good point - if KC were totally sold on Brown as "the Man" for them, they would likely have extended hm right after the trade.  Of course, they still could now that FA and the draft are wrapped up.