Bills 2021 Draft - Overall Assessment

[Shaw66]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. The Bills will have provisionally graded the round 1 Quarterbacks in this draft but it will have been a relatively light touch process and they will not, I am almost certain, have gone on the Bills' board. I made this point the other day about boards.... I had 134 guys graded this year. Nothing scientific about that... it was just the number of guys I got to and felt good enough about to put a 5th round or better grade on them (if I look at a guy's tape and think they are not a 5th rounder I just put 6/7/UDFA and don't continue to dig into the tape as I would if I wanted to grade them fully for the board). A guy like Mel Kiper or Matt Miller or Daniel Jeremiah is going to have 300-400 guys graded. They way that teams do it is much more deliberate. The Bills' board is more likely a similar size to mine than to Mel's, but not because (unlike me) they only got to 134 players, but because they only put people on the board that they are actually willing to draft. I would pretty much guarantee you Trevor Lawrence was not on the Bills' board. Not because they don't think Trevor Lawrence is draftable, but because they know they are not going to draft him. Belichick famously has a very small draft board and will generally have fewer than 100 players on it. He has well established schemes, he knows what he wants and there will be good players who he would acknowledge as good players who don't fit his profile. 

You know more about this than I, but I'd guess the Bills have more guys graded than that.   Well, probably not graded, probably clustered.  By that I mean they probably have a list of guys they have a sixth round grade on, a list of guys they have a seventh round grade on, without having ranked them individually within their cluster. 

 

Seven rounds, maybe 34 a round (with comp picks), is 230 to 250 guys being drafted; throw out maybe 50 the Bills know they aren't interested in (the top QBs and some bad apples) and it means the Bills need to know about 300 players.  And they also need to have a good idea about another 100 from whom they're going to get undrafted free agents.  So they must have evaluated and had a very clear take on 400 or 500 guys, even though they have ranked only 150.   

 

I was very interested in Beane's comment about the trade down - one fifth for two sixths.  He said that the Bills are now at a disadvantage in the mad scramble for undrafted free agents, because agents tell their guys that they have less of a chance to make the Bills than to make other needs whose rosters aren't so strong.  It's tougher for the Bills to sign the best undrafted free agents.  The trade down was done to offset that disadvantage, to get one more quality athlete to compete in training camp and probably go to the practice squad, because it will be harder to get guys like that on Sunday after the draft.   Maybe the Bills didn't have an actual number grade on those guys they took in the 6th and 7th, but you can be sure they were certain (in their minds) that they were 6th and 7th round ready.  

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

You know more about this than I, but I'd guess the Bills have more guys graded than that.   Well, probably not graded, probably clustered.  By that I mean they probably have a list of guys they have a sixth round grade on, a list of guys they have a seventh round grade on, without having ranked them individually within their cluster. 

 

Seven rounds, maybe 34 a round (with comp picks), is 230 to 250 guys being drafted; throw out maybe 50 the Bills know they aren't interested in (the top QBs and some bad apples) and it means the Bills need to know about 300 players.  And they also need to have a good idea about another 100 from whom they're going to get undrafted free agents.  So they must have evaluated and had a very clear take on 400 or 500 guys, even though they have ranked only 150.   

 

I was very interested in Beane's comment about the trade down - one fifth for two sixths.  He said that the Bills are now at a disadvantage in the mad scramble for undrafted free agents, because agents tell their guys that they have less of a chance to make the Bills than to make other needs whose rosters aren't so strong.  It's tougher for the Bills to sign the best undrafted free agents.  The trade down was done to offset that disadvantage, to get one more quality athlete to compete in training camp and probably go to the practice squad, because it will be harder to get guys like that on Sunday after the draft.   Maybe the Bills didn't have an actual number grade on those guys they took in the 6th and 7th, but you can be sure they were certain (in their minds) that they were 6th and 7th round ready.  

 

Indeed. They will have graded everyone eligible to some degree. But their board will have been somewhere in that 100-150 range. Every guy they took will have been on that board. There is a Greg Gabriel article, linked here, that does a great job of explaining the process and is very similar to the explanations I have had from other guys who have worked in the league. Teams all have their own process that differs in places but broadly they are pretty similar. 

 

[Shaw66]

15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Beane is in charge of the draft room but because McDermott trusts him implicitly. If Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott ever had a Whaley and Marrone moment (referring to the Sammy Watkins pick and Marrone storming out of the room) then I would expect if McDermott said no the trade up wouldn't happen. Again a lot of this is hypothetical, because the two are totally aligned and it is why I was less worried than others at the time about the idea that the Coach hired the GM and not the other way around. Look at the successful franchises in this league. GM and HC are in lockstep. The only other time in my fandom I can remember the Bills having that was Nix and Gailey (who bless them were both a bit out of their depth, but were aligned). 

Someone asked Beane how this draft was different from drafts a couple of years ago.   He said the main difference is that he and his staff now have a really solid understanding of what McDermott and the coaches want and need.  They know what kinds of players fit best into what the coaches are trying to build.   There's such consistency, apparently, in how McDermott runs his side of the house that Beane's side can focus better on players that are what the coaches want.   That's why, as you say, McDermott can trust him implicitly - because Beane view his job as giving McDermott what he needs, even to the extent that Beane may know better than McDermott what he needs.  If that's the kind of trust they have, and it seems they do, then maintaining that trust could lead to a long and happy marriage. 

 

I've only looked at highlight videos, but I'll say that my first reaction to Rousseau was that he's an odd looking player.   Unique.   Not overpoweringly odd, like Clowney looked in college, just different.   A guy who gets results in what looks like an unconventional way.  Basham looks solid, but the two offensive tackles also look odd.   How did the Bills get focused on two trees like that?  Because they're athletes with the right competitiveness and work ethic, I know, but still, why not more conventionally sized guys?   The answer is, I think, that Beane and McDermott continue to refine what they want, McDermott telling Beane the kind of characteristics he's looking for, Beane seeing how that could work and going after guys who fit the mold.   And I think that kind of communication and understanding is helpful both in the early rounds (where the Bills might leave us scratching our heads with two DEs) and in the later rounds, where Beane can see that a physically unimpressive still may be the guy McDermott needs, a guy like Hamlin.   

 

I think it's fascinating to watch.  

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Shaw66 said:

Someone asked Beane how this draft was different from drafts a couple of years ago.   He said the main difference is that he and his staff now have a really solid understanding of what McDermott and the coaches want and need.  They know what kinds of players fit best into what the coaches are trying to build.   There's such consistency, apparently, in how McDermott runs his side of the house that Beane's side can focus better on players that are what the coaches want.   That's why, as you say, McDermott can trust him implicitly - because Beane view his job as giving McDermott what he needs, even to the extent that Beane may know better than McDermott what he needs.  If that's the kind of trust they have, and it seems they do, then maintaining that trust could lead to a long and happy marriage. 

 

I've only looked at highlight videos, but I'll say that my first reaction to Rousseau was that he's an odd looking player.   Unique.   Not overpoweringly odd, like Clowney looked in college, just different.   A guy who gets results in what looks like an unconventional way.  Basham looks solid, but the two offensive tackles also look odd.   How did the Bills get focused on two trees like that?  Because they're athletes with the right competitiveness and work ethic, I know, but still, why not more conventionally sized guys?   The answer is, I think, that Beane and McDermott continue to refine what they want, McDermott telling Beane the kind of characteristics he's looking for, Beane seeing how that could work and going after guys who fit the mold.   And I think that kind of communication and understanding is helpful both in the early rounds (where the Bills might leave us scratching our heads with two DEs) and in the later rounds, where Beane can see that a physically unimpressive still may be the guy McDermott needs, a guy like Hamlin.   

 

I think it's fascinating to watch.  

 

Team building in the NFL is genuinely fascinating to me. I find it almost as enjoyable as the games and you have to have McDermott's favourite P word and you have to be able to execute your strategy. 

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Indeed. They will have graded everyone eligible to some degree. But their board will have been somewhere in that 100-150 range. Every guy they took will have been on that board. There is a Greg Gabriel article, linked here, that does a great job of explaining the process and is very similar to the explanations I have had from other guys who have worked in the league. Teams all have their own process that differs in places but broadly they are pretty similar. 

 

I'll go look at the article, but I find that really amazing.   That means that the Bills, and presumably other teams, are so refined in their processes that they grade 100-150 guys and ignore another 100-150, because there are going to be 250 drafted.   That means they really understand who these players are and how the draft will fall - not knowing who's taking whom, but knowing how many guys they have to know about.   That's a really finely honed process.   Thanks. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In the Bills structure? The Head Coach.

 

I agree it is kind of moot because they are completely aligned on the direction, have a great relationship and genuinely seem to enjoy working together. The Pegulas get out of the way and leave them to it, as well they should! But Sean McDermott is where the power is invested in this organisation. Brandon was his hand picked General Manager and if for any reason they were to suddenly fall out I believe Sean has the power to ask the Pegulas for a new GM. I don't believe Brandon has the power to ask them for a new Head Coach. 

 

FWIW, both McDermott and the Pegulas have given different explanations for how the Beane hiring happened.  Pegula has said McDermott gave them a list, but there were several names on it with none asterisked and that he gave input, but wasn’t involved in the actual interviews and hiring process.

 

Both Beane and McDermott have at times alluded to cases where McDermott disagreed with a move that Beane made.  So I think it’s possible the power structure may be less in McDermott’s hands than is sometimes believed.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

FWIW, both McDermott and the Pegulas have given different explanations for how the Beane hiring happened.  Pegula has said McDermott gave them a list, but there were several names on it with none asterisked and that he gave input, but wasn’t involved in the actual interviews and hiring process.

 

Both Beane and McDermott have at times alluded to cases where McDermott disagreed with a move that Beane made.  So I think it’s possible the power structure may be less in McDermott’s hands than is sometimes believed.

 

Indeed they have, but I don't believe there was ever any chance that job was going to anyone else. I think they wanted to make sure there was a process but short of walking in and baring his backside at them that job was Beane's. I am sure there are instances where they disagree on things, but if McDermott wanted to veto something I am absolutely convinced he would be able to. This is his show. Even the body language and the way that they speak when they do joint pressers to me says Sean is the boss. 

[ndirish1978]

Solid B, but I'm heartbroken we didn't draft Shelvin

 

[HappyDays]

57 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Take Rousseau.  It's possible he was #30 on the Bills' board and 29 teams took the guys the Bills had at 1-29.   That's extremely unlikely.   It's much more likely that he was #20 or #25 and some other teams took guys who were over #30. 

 

There was a Buffalo News article the other day that said Beane called Rousseau's agent when the draft was still in the mid-20s and told him that they'd be drafting Rousseau if he was still on the board at 30. So they apparently planned on taking him for several picks beforehand which means he was definitely rated higher than 30 on our board.

 

One thing to keep in mind about the Bills under McDermott and Beane is that football character is always going to be a major deciding factor. If player A is more talented than player B, most teams would have player A ranked higher. But if the Bills do their homework and decide player A isn't fully committed to football, whereas player B is known for being in the gym from dusk to dawn, they're going to take player B every time. Everything I've read about Rousseau says that he fits the character aspect they're looking for. He worked hard to graduate high school early just so he could play college football faster. He gets rave reviews about his work ethic from everyone that knew him at Miami. The Bills weigh that sort of thing more heavily than other teams. So our 1st round grade list is probably comparatively small.

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Indeed they have, but I don't believe there was ever any chance that job was going to anyone else. I think they wanted to make sure there was a process but short of walking in and baring his backside at them that job was Beane's. I am sure there are instances where they disagree on things, but if McDermott wanted to veto something I am absolutely convinced he would be able to. This is his show. Even the body language and the way that they speak when they do joint pressers to me says Sean is the boss. 

Well, I think you understand, but I think you overstate it in a way.  

 

I think McDermott has veto power, yes, but he also understands and seriously believes that this must be a team activity, and he seriously believes in delegation.   That means that he has to let Beane do his thing and NOT veto his moves; McDermott has to have the discipline, and seems to have the discipline, to let Beane run with what he thinks is best.   

 

The day McDermott vetoes a first round pick will be when the strength of the relationship will be tested.  

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

There was a Buffalo News article the other day that said Beane called Rousseau's agent when the draft was still in the mid-20s and told him that they'd be drafting Rousseau if he was still on the board at 30. So they apparently planned on taking him for several picks beforehand which means he was definitely rated higher than 30 on our board.

 

One thing to keep in mind about the Bills under McDermott and Beane is that football character is always going to be a major deciding factor. If player A is more talented than player B, most teams would have player A ranked higher. But if the Bills do their homework and decide player A isn't fully committed to football, whereas player B is known for being in the gym from dusk to dawn, they're going to take player B every time. Everything I've read about Rousseau says that he fits the character aspect they're looking for. He worked hard to graduate high school early just so he could play college football faster. He gets rave reviews about his work ethic from everyone that knew him at Miami. The Bills weigh that sort of thing more heavily than other teams. So our 1st round grade list is probably comparatively small.

I hadn't read about that call, but what you say is absolutely right.   

 

In McD's early days here, people on the board had the age-old argument about taking character or taking talent.  It was clear that McD was a character-first guy, with a very clear understanding of what character meant - work ethic, team orientation, intense competitor and intense desire to improve.  So, yeah, Aaron Hernandez would not have been on the Bills' board - people knew who he was by the time he came out of college.   

 

Obviously, there's no formula, but I'd have to guess that they had Rousseau around 20-22.   If they had him in the top 15, they would have traded up for him, just like they traded up for Edmunds.  

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

 

Obviously, there's no formula, but I'd have to guess that they had Rousseau around 20-22.   If they had him in the top 15, they would have traded up for him, just like they traded up for Edmunds.  

 

Well he could have been top 15 but still graded as a later round 1 pick. I doubt very much the Bills had 20 first round grades. It isn't just where they stack vertically it is where they stack horizontally. I watched Urban Meyer's post draft presser yesterday and he talked about how unusual it is to him having worked in college for all those years where recruiting is just about working vertically down your list. 

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Well he could have been top 15 but still graded as a later round 1 pick. I doubt very much the Bills had 20 first round grades. It isn't just where they stack vertically it is where they stack horizontally. I watched Urban Meyer's post draft presser yesterday and he talked about how unusual it is to him having worked in college for all those years where recruiting is just about working vertically down your list. 

I'm dense.  What are the vertical and horizontal stacks?   Vertical stacks are by position?   Horizontal by draft round grade?  

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Shaw66 said:

I'm dense.  What are the vertical and horizontal stacks?   Vertical stacks are by position?   Horizontal by draft round grade?  

 

You are not dense - got it in one! The point being that your 20th ranked player isn't necessarily in the first round. 

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You are not dense - got it in one! The point being that your 20th ranked player isn't necessarily in the first round. 

Got it.  Thanks.

 

So, that means that what Kiper does is fundamentally different from what Beane does.   Kiper might, I suppose, give players a first or second or third round grade, a grade that relates to what he thinks the players' actual value is, but for publication purposes, he tries to predict which 32 players will go in the first round.   That is, in a sense, he has to give 32 guys a first round grade, and 32 more a second round grade, whether or not he thinks their worth it.    And in making those predictions, in a perfect world, he would know what the actual process is that each of 32 teams use.  That process, of course, is seriously protected.   

 

And to demonstrate what's really silly about the amateur draft predictions, ESPN has two guys, Kiper and McShay, making these predictions, and they can't possibly have the same level of staff support, either individually or shared, that each GM has.   So the depth of knowledge about individual players isn't possible for those guys.  And the GMs aren't sharing what they know.   

 

All of which means that I'd rather read about your draft board, because you at least have a measure of understanding of what McBeane are trying to do and can shape your board in some ways to try to predict what the Bills will do.   But don't get a fat head - we all know you don't what you're talking about, either!!!  😉

[Straight Hucklebuck]

I think the lethargic tone of some posts on here is the Bills have built a roster that is solid and well coached, but outside of Allen abs Diggs there is not as much top flight talent on this team.

[maddenboy]

2 hours ago, DCOrange said:

Basing it off the idea that an average draft should be a C grade, I would probably give us a C or C-.  . . .

Florio and Simms pointed out today on PFT Live that at NFL.com post-draft grading of all 32 teams, the LOWEST grade was a C-

 

Hmmmm.

[Shaw66]

7 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I think the lethargic tone of some posts on here is the Bills have built a roster that is solid and well coached, but outside of Allen abs Diggs there is not as much top flight talent on this team.

This is an interesting observation.  I think there's some truth in.  And drafting at 30, you aren't going to get a lot of top flight stars.

 

But the question for Bills fans is "do you want top flight talent or you want to win?"  QB is the only position where top flight talent correlates with winning.  Tampa had a lot of talent on the field last year, but Brady was probably the only guy on the team who was a star like Allen and Diggs.  

 

One way you can tell the Bills have a lot of talent is that they didn't have many opportunities to draft someone who would be clearly better than the starter the Bills have at any particular position.   McBeane clearly like their talent, because they didn't go chasing talent in the free agent markets and they drafted high ceiling guys who won't necessarily be immediate contributors.  That's the process when you want to continuously improve your talent.  

 

So, yeah, the Bills didn't take someone who makes the fans dream of instant impact, like a Sammy Watkins did and a CJ Spiller did, and they didn't sign someone who got the juices flowing like the Mario Williams signing did, but we saw how those approaches worked and we've seen how McBeane's approach works.   There are no parades around downtown this morning, but I'm fine with that.   This looks like the way to have a parade in February. 

[DCOrange]

8 minutes ago, maddenboy said:

Florio and Simms pointed out today on PFT Live that at NFL.com post-draft grading of all 32 teams, the LOWEST grade was a C-

 

Hmmmm.

Yeah, I don't really see the point in giving out grades if you're going to do it that way lol

[Doc]

9 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

This is an interesting observation.  I think there's some truth in.  And drafting at 30, you aren't going to get a lot of top flight stars.

 

But the question for Bills fans is "do you want top flight talent or you want to win?"  QB is the only position where top flight talent correlates with winning.  Tampa had a lot of talent on the field last year, but Brady was probably the only guy on the team who was a star like Allen and Diggs.  

 

One way you can tell the Bills have a lot of talent is that they didn't have many opportunities to draft someone who would be clearly better than the starter the Bills have at any particular position.   McBeane clearly like their talent, because they didn't go chasing talent in the free agent markets and they drafted high ceiling guys who won't necessarily be immediate contributors.  That's the process when you want to continuously improve your talent.  

 

So, yeah, the Bills didn't take someone who makes the fans dream of instant impact, like a Sammy Watkins did and a CJ Spiller did, and they didn't sign someone who got the juices flowing like the Mario Williams signing did, but we saw how those approaches worked and we've seen how McBeane's approach works.   There are no parades around downtown this morning, but I'm fine with that.   This looks like the way to have a parade in February. 

 

The Bucs had a lot of stars.  Brady was obviously the biggest.  But that team was like a Dream Team by the end of the season.