Bills 2021 Draft - Overall Assessment

[Buddo]

My impression of this draft, is generally 'solid' - in more ways than one.

 

From looking around at a few 'big boards', I thought that we might struggle to find an obvious 'upgrade' at the #30. seemed like there was going to be a bunch of O-Line guys available around there, and while the line isn't perfect, we don't have immediate needs there.

 

The one guy who did intrigue me as a possible pick there, was Rousseau, as I could see where due to not playing last year, he might be available. I thought he was the only DE who could be there at the pick, out of the few that I had seen small write ups on.

 

I think the Bills lucked out a bit there. I also believe he was probably a guy they were thinking of when Beane referenced getting guys who they can develop.

 

I think they got lucky again with the Boogie pick, with value aligning with need nicely there.

 

Between those two, Epenesa, and also the kid we signed as a FA, I do feel we have made an improvement to our pass rush. Maybe not by a huge amount immediately, but I think going forward, we could well have a lot more success in getting to passers.

 

Rousseau's athleticism and sheer length, could quickly become an asset in the disruption of the more mobile QBs, who might well find they have to move further to get out of range of those big mitts.

 

This was a pretty good draft class of O-Line men supposedly, so it shouldn't be a surprise we got some. What was a surprise was how big and athletic they were. Lots of potential there, down the road. It certainly feels good to think that while we already have two good tackles in place and locked up for a few years, we hopefully will have guys primed to either come in, or replace them, as and when.

 

A couple of DBs, a speedy WR who is expected to get return duties, and that was a wrap.

 

I trust McDermott and DB evaluation. He seems to have a knack of finding traits in lower round guys, or udfa's, that he can develop.

 

Tbh, I really didn't know what to expect from this draft. I wouldn't have been unhappy if they had found another CB @ the #30. With Tre inked, if you want to take another CB high, then around now is the time to do it. I don't think you ever pay two CBs the big bucks though.

 

I would not have had a problem with either Harris or Etienne being added, if they had fallen. Harris is an every down back, and Etienne does have the speed to take it to the house. Thing is, in signing Brieda, Beane kept his options open, and was once again, able to 'go with the flow'.

 

I think it's easy to be critical about how much we might have improved with this draft, and if I'm totally honest, I don't think it is by loads immediately. I do think what they've done, is good for the future sustained success we all want to see.

 

At the end of the day, we need to remember, that the Bills at the moment, are a very good football team, and from that starting point, it isn't so easy to make big steps.

 

For those thinking that lots of other possible rivals have made big steps forward, well the short answer to that, is that they need to, to get to where the Bills are currently operating, and their jury is still very much out.

 

 

[Shaw66]

19 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

So you think that picking the coach will be what would make him leave?

Yes, I think that would be part of it.   Maybe more of a business role, like President and GM.   I don't know, but I've just had this feeling that he's a really competitive guy and wants to be the top dog.   The vision in Buffalo is that there is a team of four people in charge - the Pegs, Beane and McD.  Maybe he will be happy for the long term being part of a winning team.  I just have had the sense that he will want more.

 

McD, on the other hand, is totally a team guy and I have trouble seeing him taking the same approach.   However, we've seen plenty of occasions where coaches have come to disagree with the GM about personnel selections, and I could imagine that happening with McD and Beane.  

 

On the other hand, in his presser Sunday, Beane said something like "you'll see the Bills go after big guys in the trenches as long as Sean and I are here," so what do I know?

[eball]

2 hours ago, Arm of Harm said:

Polian didn’t draft Jim Kelly but he did draft Bruce Smith. Polian officially became GM in 1986 (a year after Smith was drafted), but he was in charge of the 1985 draft even though he didn’t have the official GM title. 

Wrong. He was director of pro personnel. 

[Maynard]

I give them a B, but only because of Wildgoose. 
 

I love the Brown pick, but didn’t see the need to grab Doyle. Yeah, I get that Doyle was high on their board. 
 

Loved that we grabbed two DE’s however. Think that was a smart move with Addison and Hughes age. We need to get after the QB and believe both of these young studs will help us there!
 

Hopefully, AJ turns it up a large notch as well. 

[dpberr]

This draft won't be Brandon Beane's best draft work he will ever do. It was ok.

 

I think this was one of the weaker overall drafts in the last couple years. Lots of good players but no generational talent like those early 90s drafts where you had zero hall of famers out of them. 

 

 

[One Buffalo]

According to this analysis Bills are 5th on ROI%. (Athletic- sub required)

 

 

Quote

we calculated the expected value each team earned on the pick and subtracted the capital of the pick, using an equation that weighs the value of the team’s selections (capital) against the draftees’ rankings in the Consensus Big Board (value). We also take into account positional needs — if a team, for example, drafts a good running back because he’s the highest-ranked player on the board but then never plays that running back because there are five better ones on the roster, that wasn’t a good pick. 

 

Here's the top 7 from the chart, doesn't paste the format well though.

 

 

 

2021 Consensus Big Board Draft Rankings

RANK

  

TEAM

  

CAPITAL

  

VALUE

  

NET

  

ROI

  

1

Chicago Bears

4081.4

8126.1

4044.6

199.1%

2

Kansas City Chiefs

3106.7

5293.2

2186.5

170.4%

3

Denver Broncos

5777

9798.2

4021.2

169.6%

4

Cleveland Browns

5014.6

8490

3475.4

169.3%

5

Buffalo Bills

4083.3

6850.7

2767.4

167.8%

6

Detroit Lions

5764

9162.5

3398.6

159.0%

7

Philadelphia Eagles

5656.9

8944.7

3287.8

158.1%

[Hapless Bills Fan]

FWIW, Ed Oliver likes our acquisitions:

 

 

[wppete]

Solid A grade.  Great draft building on what we already have with some hard-nose, tough, high character players. Love this draft! 

[Shaw66]

4 hours ago, One Buffalo said:

According to this analysis Bills are 5th on ROI%. (Athletic- sub required)

 

 

 

Here's the top 7 from the chart, doesn't paste the format well though.

 

 

 

2021 Consensus Big Board Draft Rankings

RANK

  

TEAM

  

CAPITAL

  

VALUE

  

NET

  

ROI

  

1

Chicago Bears

4081.4

8126.1

4044.6

199.1%

2

Kansas City Chiefs

3106.7

5293.2

2186.5

170.4%

3

Denver Broncos

5777

9798.2

4021.2

169.6%

4

Cleveland Browns

5014.6

8490

3475.4

169.3%

5

Buffalo Bills

4083.3

6850.7

2767.4

167.8%

6

Detroit Lions

5764

9162.5

3398.6

159.0%

7

Philadelphia Eagles

5656.9

8944.7

3287.8

158.1%

Well, I always like seeing my team on the top of lists, saying they're excellent, but really?   Someone thinks they can calculate draft success like this?   I think it's comical.  So much of what goes on in football is subjective, and these people are calculating stuff to five significant digits?   I don't think so.  

[SCBills]

The immediate difference in DL pass rush may have to come from growth in Oliver, Epenesa and having Star back.  Perhaps Obada, if he makes the team.  
 

That being said, if Rousseau and Basham can be reliable rotation pieces by the time we hit the playoffs, we may have ourselves a 🔥 pass rush when it matters.  
 

Of course it would be great to have them come on sooner,  but the potential of this DL certainly has taken a massive jump after this weekend. 
 

Edited May 3, 2021 by SCBills

[One Buffalo]

9 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, I always like seeing my team on the top of lists, saying they're excellent, but really?   Someone thinks they can calculate draft success like this?   I think it's comical.  So much of what goes on in football is subjective, and these people are calculating stuff to five significant digits?   I don't think so.  

 

To be honest I agree.  But the "Consensus Big Board" is being referenced on Twitter by many as one of their favorite/most reliable post draft analysis tools.  So I find it interesting.  It apparently compiles the data from 70 "big boards" in the media from "draft experts" to reach conclusions. As you said, so much of this is subjective, I agree.  But it is interesting to me to see a tool like this that attempts to aggregate a wide range of data.  And it is always nice to see the Bills at the top of lists as a bonus.  

 

 

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

I’m curious as to why people think it takes so long for a kid to learn how to rush the passer. It’s seem like it’s a one on one skill for an edge rusher against a Tackle on most plays. Now I realize that NFL Tackles are better than college players but it sure seems like something you can practice at in a month of camp and preseason. Speed, technique and length are the keys...no?

[CountDorkula]

C+

Teams are getting the ball out faster and faster.

Getting Ends who can rush the passer, yes you need, but when teams are getting the ball out in 2 seconds it wont matter much.

 

 

I'm not building my team from the trenches out.

I'm building from the back end in. 

 

Need cover corners and Linebackers. 

 

I guess we will see how it plays out, not a fan of going DE/DE/DE with your 3 top picks the last 2 years. 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

19 hours ago, Turbo44 said:

 What’s higher up than a GM anyway?

 

In the Bills structure? The Head Coach.

 

I agree it is kind of moot because they are completely aligned on the direction, have a great relationship and genuinely seem to enjoy working together. The Pegulas get out of the way and leave them to it, as well they should! But Sean McDermott is where the power is invested in this organisation. Brandon was his hand picked General Manager and if for any reason they were to suddenly fall out I believe Sean has the power to ask the Pegulas for a new GM. I don't believe Brandon has the power to ask them for a new Head Coach. 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, One Buffalo said:

 

To be honest I agree.  But the "Consensus Big Board" is being referenced on Twitter by many as one of their favorite/most reliable post draft analysis tools.  So I find it interesting.  It apparently compiles the data from 70 "big boards" in the media from "draft experts" to reach conclusions. As you said, so much of this is subjective, I agree.  But it is interesting to me to see a tool like this that attempts to aggregate a wide range of data.  And it is always nice to see the Bills at the top of lists as a bonus.  

 

 

 

 

Please don't take the following comments as arguing.  I'm not arguing about it - just talking and making some observations.

 

First, I agree, it's fun and interesting to look at all kinds of rankings.   They're great when they conclude something like Feliciano is the second best pass protecting guard in the league, and they're terrible when they say the Bills had the second worst tackling linebackers in the league, or whatever.  

 

Second, I've always distrusted the talking-head outsiders when they rank anything.  The weekly power ratings are really stupid, in my opinion.  (I still look at them.)   And that goes for especially amateurs who make themselves into professionals, from Mel Kiper on down.  Self-appointed experts.   My distrust was confirmed a few years ago when Kyle Williams was being interviewed and he was told something like he had a 68% efficiency rating on running plays (I just made that up).  Williams asked where that number came from and was told it came PFF or someplace, and he went off.   First, he wasn't even aware of such ratings, which means that his team doesn't rely on that data at all - they generate their own data.  Second, he asked how an outsider possibly could evaluate his efficiency on any play when he doesn't know what his assignment was, how that assignment might have been adjusted in the huddle, what the defense did that might have made executing more difficult than anticipated, etc.   He literally laughed it off.  So, if the pros completely ignore that kind of analysis, why should we pay attention to it?   Still, it's fun.  

 

Third, the teams really, really don't care where their draft ranks among other teams.   All they care about is their own objectives and how well they did against those objectives.   You can tell that Beane just sloughs off questions that suggestion his team didn't get better as much as the Chiefs or the Browns.   He may or may not believe that, but he just doesn't care.  All that matters to him is making his team as good as he can make it.  The Jets made themselves a whole lot better than the Bills did, because they didn't have a quarterback and now they do.   I know, this list actually takes that into account in some way, but so what?

 

Now, it's interesting that this approaches averages a lot of publicly available big boards.  The philosophy is consistent with something I read recently.  Apparently, if you fill a 5 gallon glass jug with gumballs and ask people to guess how many gumballs there are, you get guesses all over the place, some of which are wrong, sometimes by factors of 2, 3, 4.  But if you have 10,000 people guess and you average all their guesses, the average consistently comes out close to the actual number of gumballs.   So, it's possible that that phenomenon is at work here, and even though I think all these amateurs are idiots, maybe the average of all the idiots is actually meaningful.  

 

Now, if you gave me the average of the big boards of the 32 teams, I'd think you'd have a pretty good starting point.  It actually would be kind of cool if the teams all agreed to show their big boards to some trusted third person, like some bigtime accounting firm.  Strictly confidentially, so no one would ever see and be able to identify lists to teams, and let the firm do some number crunching and release the results.   That would be interesting.   For example:

 

Take Rousseau.  It's possible he was #30 on the Bills' board and 29 teams took the guys the Bills had at 1-29.   That's extremely unlikely.   It's much more likely that he was #20 or #25 and some other teams took guys who were over #30.   

 

I don't know exactly how the boards are put together, but obviously the Bills weren't taking a QB with their first pick, so there's five guys who totally objectively may have been a better value than Rousseau but whom the Bills weren't going to take.  If you could analyze those kinds of situations for all of the teams and do some averaging, you could figure out, at least based on the collective judgment of 32 GMs, which team got the best talent in the draft.  I just don't have a lot of confidence in the collective judgment of 70 Mel Kipers - unless the gumball example is actually true

[Doc]

41 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In the Bills structure? The Head Coach.

 

I agree it is kind of moot because they are completely aligned on the direction, have a great relationship and genuinely seem to enjoy working together. The Pegulas get out of the way and leave them to it, as well they should! But Sean McDermott is where the power is invested in this organisation. Brandon was his hand picked General Manager and if for any reason they were to suddenly fall out I believe Sean has the power to ask the Pegulas for a new GM. I don't believe Brandon has the power to ask them for a new Head Coach. 

 

By far the more important of the 2 is a good HC.  He coaches the players and knows what he needs.  

[Shaw66]

38 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In the Bills structure? The Head Coach.

 

I agree it is kind of moot because they are completely aligned on the direction, have a great relationship and genuinely seem to enjoy working together. The Pegulas get out of the way and leave them to it, as well they should! But Sean McDermott is where the power is invested in this organisation. Brandon was his hand picked General Manager and if for any reason they were to suddenly fall out I believe Sean has the power to ask the Pegulas for a new GM. I don't believe Brandon has the power to ask them for a new Head Coach. 

Someplace in this thread or elsewhere I was in a little discussion about the possibility that Beane might leave one day.  Some people seemed to think it was more or less impossible that he would leave unless McDermott was gone, too.   I think what you say is a better explanation for why Beane might leave than I gave.  

 

I'm not exactly sure where the power is today.   Clearly when Beane was hired it was in McDermott - the Pegs relied primarily on him to hire Beane.  And McDermott is the high priest of the growth mindset, so far as I can tell, not Beane, and I think the Pegs are sold on that.  

 

I think in the war room on draft day, Beane has the final say.  If he says it's Basham, it's Basham.   But I think, and it sounds like you agree, if McDermott goes to the Pegulas and complains to them that he told Beane that he really, really didn't want another DE, that team would be stronger if the Bills went in a different direction in the second round, well, Beane might be in trouble.   Maybe they'd smooth it over, but if it happened once more, or twice more, if they were regularly knocking heads on personnel decisions, I think the Pegulas would tell them that McDermott has a veto on the draft selections.  If that happened, I'd think Beane would move on. 

 

If you believe that article from a couple of months ago, the Pegulas wanted Mahomes and Whaley and/or some of his staff wanted Mahomes.  McDermott said no, for whatever reasons.   It's hard to imagine that McDermott, having that veto power months after he arrived, willingly would give it up.  It is another way that I think McDermott is similar to Belichick.  

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Take Rousseau.  It's possible he was #30 on the Bills' board and 29 teams took the guys the Bills had at 1-29.   That's extremely unlikely.   It's much more likely that he was #20 or #25 and some other teams took guys who were over #30.   

 

I don't know exactly how the boards are put together, but obviously the Bills weren't taking a QB with their first pick, so there's five guys who totally objectively may have been a better value than Rousseau but whom the Bills weren't going to take.  If you could analyze those kinds of situations for all of the teams and do some averaging, you could figure out, at least based on the collective judgment of 32 GMs, which team got the best talent in the draft.  I just don't have a lot of confidence in the collective judgment of 70 Mel Kipers - unless the gumball example is actually true

 

Yep. The Bills will have provisionally graded the round 1 Quarterbacks in this draft but it will have been a relatively light touch process and they will not, I am almost certain, have gone on the Bills' board. I made this point the other day about boards.... I had 134 guys graded this year. Nothing scientific about that... it was just the number of guys I got to and felt good enough about to put a 5th round or better grade on them (if I look at a guy's tape and think they are not a 5th rounder I just put 6/7/UDFA and don't continue to dig into the tape as I would if I wanted to grade them fully for the board). A guy like Mel Kiper or Matt Miller or Daniel Jeremiah is going to have 300-400 guys graded. They way that teams do it is much more deliberate. The Bills' board is more likely a similar size to mine than to Mel's, but not because (unlike me) they only got to 134 players, but because they only put people on the board that they are actually willing to draft. I would pretty much guarantee you Trevor Lawrence was not on the Bills' board. Not because they don't think Trevor Lawrence is draftable, but because they know they are not going to draft him. Belichick famously has a very small draft board and will generally have fewer than 100 players on it. He has well established schemes, he knows what he wants and there will be good players who he would acknowledge as good players who don't fit his profile. 

[DCOrange]

Basing it off the idea that an average draft should be a C grade, I would probably give us a C or C-. The closest I came to loving any of our picks was probably Brown. I liked the idea of going back to back with pass rushers, but I would have liked to see one of them more in Hughes mold of having good speed off the edge to try to force QBs to climb the pocket where Oliver/Rousseau would theoretically be waiting to finish them off. I don't think Basham really compliments the guys we have on the line right now but maybe I'll be wrong about that.

 

Rousseau wouldn't have been my choice in Round 1 but he was who I expected us to end up taking and I think he's a pretty good prospect.

 

I don't really know much about Brown, but I was definitely interested in addressing the OLine in the draft and I love taking an athletic freak like him.

 

Stevenson is an interesting dart throw for a 6th round pick. Shockingly graded out as an average athlete but he looks a lot more athletic on the field than his numbers indicate. All in all, it looks like a fine draft to me. Nothing special but not bad by any means either.

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Someplace in this thread or elsewhere I was in a little discussion about the possibility that Beane might leave one day.  Some people seemed to think it was more or less impossible that he would leave unless McDermott was gone, too.   I think what you say is a better explanation for why Beane might leave than I gave.  

 

I'm not exactly sure where the power is today.   Clearly when Beane was hired it was in McDermott - the Pegs relied primarily on him to hire Beane.  And McDermott is the high priest of the growth mindset, so far as I can tell, not Beane, and I think the Pegs are sold on that.  

 

I think in the war room on draft day, Beane has the final say.  If he says it's Basham, it's Basham.   But I think, and it sounds like you agree, if McDermott goes to the Pegulas and complains to them that he told Beane that he really, really didn't want another DE, that team would be stronger if the Bills went in a different direction in the second round, well, Beane might be in trouble.   Maybe they'd smooth it over, but if it happened once more, or twice more, if they were regularly knocking heads on personnel decisions, I think the Pegulas would tell them that McDermott has a veto on the draft selections.  If that happened, I'd think Beane would move on. 

 

If you believe that article from a couple of months ago, the Pegulas wanted Mahomes and Whaley and/or some of his staff wanted Mahomes.  McDermott said no, for whatever reasons.   It's hard to imagine that McDermott, having that veto power months after he arrived, willingly would give it up.  It is another way that I think McDermott is similar to Belichick.  

 

I think Beane is in charge of the draft room but because McDermott trusts him implicitly. If Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott ever had a Whaley and Marrone moment (referring to the Sammy Watkins pick and Marrone storming out of the room) then I would expect if McDermott said no the trade up wouldn't happen. Again a lot of this is hypothetical, because the two are totally aligned and it is why I was less worried than others at the time about the idea that the Coach hired the GM and not the other way around. Look at the successful franchises in this league. GM and HC are in lockstep. The only other time in my fandom I can remember the Bills having that was Nix and Gailey (who bless them were both a bit out of their depth, but were aligned).