Bills 2021 Draft - Overall Assessment

[Doc]

12 minutes ago, SCBills said:

All true, but unless there’s injuries, this Starting OL is basically the same as last years Starting OL.  
 

The swing tackles on the sideline might be intimidating though. 
 

Defensive Line will definitely be another story.  We should see a very different unit out there now.  

 

Not really.  Feliciano played only 9 games, hurt.  Ford missed the last 7 games and was being tried at RT and OG until finally settling in at LG.  They all didn't play together at any point.

[ghostwriter]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

Ed isn’t a 1T.  He needs to play next to a true 1T to fulfill his potential. 

 

Do we really have 2 1Ts?  We sure didn’t have any last season. Ed played some....which should never happen.  Ever. 
 

Butler and phillips played a bit better down the stretch but I wouldn’t consider them to be viable starting 1Ts and meh backup 1Ts.  Butler is a 3T despite his size imo.  

 

We have no idea how good star will be and he’s out the door after this season of he’s not up to par.  We’d save over 4M on the cap by cutting him after this season. 

 

I don’t see why we wouldn’t bring someone to compete.  We have 472 offensive lineman now.  They preach competition at all positions and have held to that except for CB and NT.   No competition at either spots and very few under contract for ‘22

 

 

Let’s reevaluate after the June 1st cuts. I think Ertz is still in play as well. I could see a corner, a TE and a 1T somewhere along the way, at least before Week 1. Preseason will roll along, there will be cuts when teams trim down and so on so forth. It’s not like we have a ton of holes at this point.

[RichRiderBills]

My general vibe was this was a poor draft, and my gut here feels akin to the old drafts where we all rationalized your Duke Prestons and Derek Schoumans.

 

Bills needed to trade up to get Etienne , Hariss , or Toney as the playmaker to upgrade the offense. They failed here...or didnt bother.

 

We needed a first rate KR too, but didnt act on this till round 6.

 

Rosseau is an opt out player, and I'll make no bones about the fact that this generally turns me off.

 

Bills overthought things....

Edited May 2, 2021 by RichRiderBills

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

It would mean that Dawkins was expendable, because there was younger cheaper talent.   Losing Dawkins in that way is exactly how the Patriots lost talent year after year.   They didn't hold on to their talented people, they let them move on.   

 

Dude.  "Replace talent with cheaper talent" works at many positions, but that's not how the Patriots worked at LT.

They drafted LT Matt Light in the 2nd in 2001, and he remained their LT for 11 years, into his mid-30s.  Then they moved Nate Solder (a 1st round pick) from RT to LT to replace him, and he held that position down for 7 years. 

 

Obviously, they had a great team in 2018 and 2019, but I don't think you could call OL its best strength, and feeling that NE was "cheaping it" with the pieces around him is probably one reason Tom Brady moved on to hoist the Lombardi for another team last season.

 

You don't randomly have someone else play LT in place of your franchise LT (who is locked-up under contract for the next 4 years) after 3 years, unless said franchise LT is seriously injured (avert!) or just not playing well.  And even then, you've got a problem because in 3 years, if you got a guy you drafted this season playing LT and doing it well, he's in the last year of his contract and he's not going to be cheap any more.

 

I "get" your general point that teams paying a franchise QB have to develop and maintain a pipeline of younger cheaper guys to replace older more expensive guys, but you're taking it a bit too extreme.  That doesn't apply to all positions but QB.

 

[Bill Murray]

I’d venture a guess that if they knew they were going to get Basham in the second they would have gone elsewhere in the first, maybe corner, or it would have allowed them to move back out of the spot and pick up some goodies.  When it turned out Basham was there in the 2nd they stayed true to their board and took him as the BPA.

 

I like focusing on the lines and I like picking players with big upside late in day two and day 3 rounds trying to hit it big on one.  We’ll see how they develop.  If the WR from Houston can play fast in the pros, might allow then to move on from Andre Robert’s and redeploy the cap $s elsewhere.  
 

needed to get depth at safety as both Poyer and Hyde are 30 and that was accomplished too.  Solid draft getting so many high upside guys with what they had, but no surefire

impact players.  B that could turn into an A if the the guys develop on the line develop. 

[Doc]

2 minutes ago, Bill Murray said:

I’d venture a guess that if they knew they were going to get Basham in the second they would have gone elsewhere in the first, maybe corner, or it would have allowed them to move back out of the spot and pick up some goodies.  When it turned out Basham was there in the 2nd they stayed true to their board and took him as the BPA.

 

I like focusing on the lines and I like picking players with big upside late in day two and day 3 rounds trying to hit it big on one.  We’ll see how they develop.  If the WR from Houston can play fast in the pros, might allow then to move on from Andre Robert’s and redeploy the cap $s elsewhere.  
 

needed to get depth at safety as both Poyer and Hyde are 30 and that was accomplished too.  Solid draft getting so many high upside guys with what they had, but no surefire

impact players.  B that could turn into an A if the the guys develop on the line develop. 

 

I think they wanted Rousseau all along.  If they thought Basham was that good, they would have traded down at 30 and then taken him.

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Dude.  "Replace talent with cheaper talent" works at many positions, but that's not how the Patriots worked at LT.

They drafted LT Matt Light in the 2nd in 2001, and he remained their LT for 11 years, into his mid-30s.  Then they moved Nate Solder (a 1st round pick) from RT to LT to replace him, and he held that position down for 7 years. 

 

Obviously, they had a great team in 2018 and 2019, but I don't think you could call OL its best strength, and feeling that NE was "cheaping it" with the pieces around him is probably one reason Tom Brady moved on to hoist the Lombardi for another team last season.

 

You don't randomly have someone else play LT in place of your franchise LT (who is locked-up under contract for the next 4 years) after 3 years, unless said franchise LT is seriously injured (avert!) or just not playing well.  And even then, you've got a problem because in 3 years, if you got a guy you drafted this season playing LT and doing it well, he's in the last year of his contract and he's not going to be cheap any more.

 

I "get" your general point that teams paying a franchise QB have to develop and maintain a pipeline of younger cheaper guys to replace older more expensive guys, but you're taking it a bit too extreme.  That doesn't apply to all positions but QB.

 

Thanks, but I doubt you're correct when it comes to McBeane.  We'll just have to wait and see, but McBeane have been very clear that every position is up for grabs every year.   Just because they like their left tackle today doesn't mean that he's a ten-year fixture.  Maybe I'm missing something, because Dawkins hasn't struck me as a HOF tackle, just a good one.   What protects players, long-term, for McBeane, is leadership.  If Dawkins is one of the four or five leaders on the team in three years, then it will be tough to move him out.  Otherwise, I wouldn't say that he's a sure thing.  

 

But I hear you point.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

My general vibe was this was a poor draft, and my gut here feels akin to the old drafts where we all rationalized your Duke Prestons and Derek Schoumans.

 

Would Pepto-Bismol help with that?

 

I think it's a poor take to compare the demonstrated quality of the talent evaluation at the end of Donahoe, or under Marv Levy or Russ Brandon as GM, vs. today.  I think the W-L record bears that out.

 

2 minutes ago, RichRiderBills said:

Bills needed to trade up to get Etienne , Hariss , or Toney as the playmaker to upgrade the oline. They failed here...or didnt bother.

 

No, the Bills didn't "need" to do that.  You wanted them to, because your assessment is that Etienne or Harris at RB or Toney at WR was the "difference maker" who would put the Bills over the top.

 

Obviously the Bills disagreed, probably because their scouting assessment of those players and their selfscouting of the team's needs differs from yours.

 

Now you might be right, and they might be wrong, but it won't because they "failed" or "didn't bother", it will be because their scouting and self-scouting are inferior to yours.  Which is possible, but IMO unlikely.

 

[ghostwriter]

2 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

I think they wanted Rousseau all along.  If they thought Basham was that good, they would have traded down at 30 and then taken him.

Boogie should not have been there at 61. I don’t think Bills fans realize what they’re getting. Crazy value. Some mocks had him in the early to mid 20s. Obviously Rousseau was a huge steal at 30 as well. Notice right after Rousseau, two DEs came right off the board? Unreal value. Both were BPA. Buffalo is straight at DE for the next 5-7 years.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Think it's pretty clear that many of the picks by the Bills were made looking down the road.  In 2023 Williams will be the last year of his contract so replace him with one of the rookie tackles.  Same with selecting two DE's, looking beyond this year.  More than the past couple of years, seems a handful of the picks are either boom based on potential or could be busts, will see.

 

My only concern is roster slots for this year.  Can't see either Addison or Hughes being traded as who'd want their high salaries? Addison's salary is fully guaranteed to can't see him being cut either.  So how do you handle all the players on the line. To me the only ones who they'd have a shot at being traded are either Johnson, Phillips, or Zimmer, maybe the one FA they just signed?  Would they trade Epinesa??  To get traded you either need to be on a cheap normally initial contract, or be and extremely good player which don't think any of the current D-Line players qualify.

 

To make room I suspect one of the DE and one of the OT's they drafted will suddenly become injured around the end of August and be on the IR list all year.  Likely a paper cut or hang nail, something serious along those lines.  Sixth round and lower picks likely take a shot on releasing and placing on PS.  The one saving grace may be that many other teams will also be in same situation due to opt outs and teams who didn't play.

[Doc]

WRT to the Dawkins debate, it appears that the Bills can cut Dawkins anytime after 2021 and save money ($1.94M in 2022, $6.26M in 2023 and $10.3M in 2024, all pre-June 1st). 

[John from Riverside]

24 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Not really.  Feliciano played only 9 games, hurt.  Ford missed the last 7 games and was being tried at RT and OG until finally settling in at LG.  They all didn't play together at any point.

I would not discount Lamp here either....who might have a funny name but is athletic and a quality OL men.......

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

WRT to the Dawkins debate, it appears that the Bills can cut Dawkins anytime after 2021 and save money ($1.94M in 2022, $6.26M in 2023 and $10.3M in 2024, all pre-June 1st). 

Well, I can't imagine they'd cut him.  They might trade him.  I don't know what the cap consequences would be in a trade.  

[dgrochester55]

B 

 

I like  the positions that they picked.   The overall theme seems to be developmental players with high upside which means good long term potential but also a good chance for minimal impact from the picks in 2021.   Maybe not the most exciting, but it beats the drought years before Pegula took over when the strategy seemed to be reaching for a player in a specific position way too early because it was a position of desperate need that was not addressed in free agency.

 

My favorite pick was Basham in rd 2.  The only pick that did not impress me was the Spencer Brown as I felt there were better options available at the offensive line during that phase of the draft.  

Edited May 2, 2021 by dgrochester55

[NewEra]

29 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

Let’s reevaluate after the June 1st cuts. I think Ertz is still in play as well. I could see a corner, a TE and a 1T somewhere along the way, at least before Week 1. Preseason will roll along, there will be cuts when teams trim down and so on so forth. It’s not like we have a ton of holes at this point.

Agreed.  My point was, just because a late rd 1T wouldn’t be a starter in 2021, doesn’t mean one isn’t worth drafting.  I don’t think one of these draft picks will be starting unless they move Jerry back to the right and Rousseau or Basham impresses enough to start on the left.  I really don’t wanna see Addison starting on the right side again

[Doc]

18 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I would not discount Lamp here either....who might have a funny name but is athletic and a quality OL men.......

 

Anyone is a possible competitor.

 

17 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, I can't imagine they'd cut him.  They might trade him.  I don't know what the cap consequences would be in a trade.  

 

They'd only cut him if if play were to drop off precipitously.  Just saying that they're not hamstrung by his contract at all.

[BADOLBILZ]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Agreed.  My point was, just because a late rd 1T wouldn’t be a starter in 2021, doesn’t mean one isn’t worth drafting.  I don’t think one of these draft picks will be starting unless they move Jerry back to the right and Rousseau or Basham impresses enough to start on the left.  I really don’t wanna see Addison starting on the right side again

 

 

I do think the thing with 1 tech DT's is that they don't have much value so if the Bills want one they should be able to do it cheaply and just about whenever they feel like it.

 

We discussed Snacks Harrison being out there.     Danny Shelton (2015 #12 overall pick) who is far better than Star Lotulelei had to settle for a veteran minimum contract with NYG this offseason.    Both of those guys are much better than Star Lotulelei and both may be on the street in summer.......or even after the first week of September when veteran contracts no longer have to be guaranteed.

 

When Harrison signed his big contract with the Giants it immediately, but very temporarily, skewed upward a market for top NT types from $4M up to $10M.   Harrison was almost a unicorn though.......he was rolling up 75 tackles playing NT!   Unfortunately Beane royally screwed up and bought Loturd at the top of the market.   Now these guys can barely give themselves away.    

[John from Riverside]

3 hours ago, nucci said:

How old are you? I'm not criticizing you or this draft and you can't know how the players will turn out but I've been around a long time and seen more exciting drafts

Exciting does not equal betterExciting does not equal better

3 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

Pretty much agree with all your individual rankings...

 

Basham was a guy that I wanted us to avoid ... just think he is nothing special ... 

 

I guess at 61 rather than 30 I can live with it and hope I am wrong( wouldn’t be the first time..)

Boogie is going to end up being the player out of this draft that makes the most immediate impact you watch

[Richard Noggin]

The draft is not about addressing immediate roster needs, especially beyond days one and two.

 

That kind of needs-based thinking gets lesser teams into trouble all the time. Seems like everyone criticizing this draft class is doing so while looking at perceived holes in our roster THIS YEAR. The draft, when worked properly, is about continually building out a competitive roster, year after year. 

 

Guess what: it's a process.

[Aussie Joe]

20 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

 

Boogie is going to end up being the player out of this draft that makes the most immediate impact you watch

Fair enough...believe me I want to be wrong because I want the pass rush to be better