2021 NFL Draft - Day 2 Debrief

[GunnerBill]

Morning all.... Day 2 is in the books and Brandon Beane's quest to draft every defensive end known to man continues unabated. On the coverage I thought Joel Klatt was a good addition to the NFL Network panel and I actually though they should have used him a bit more. Love DJ but at times last night it was a bit like a two hander between Rich and DJ and Charles Davis and Klatt were struggling to get in, but when they did they were both worth listening to. Anyway... on with the debrief!

 

The Bills Picks...

The tale of two days for the Buffalo Bills. On night one they were locked in on not just best player available but "best player who impacts the Quarterback" whereas day 2 they genuinely did let the board fall to them and take the best player available by their board. What makes me say that? Two things. Firstly, I believe Brandon Beane when he said that he didn't start the day looking to take another defensive end. However, clearly the Bills have done a lot of work on this edge class and so it isn't a surprise that there were multiple guys they felt strongly about. Secondly, both Basham and Spencer Brown fit what is fast becoming part of the Bills draft modus operandi - high value RAS (Relative Athletic Score) profiles. They want guys with some of those unteachable advantages whether it is length, speed, size, power, agility etc. As a result I completely buy that they were high on the Bills' board and they were not reaching downwards to fill needs. So what of the players themselves? I haven't been the hugest Boogie Basham guy. I certainly was very strongly against him at #30. At #61 it was still a reach by my board (I had a mid 3rd on him) but I don't hate it. He was an excellent college player at Wake Forest but his production came largely by just overpowering tackles who will not play in the pros. Against superior NFL athletes starting at offensive tackle I worry a bit how he wins. He isn't overpowering Mekhi Becton for example, or Orlando Brown Jr who will be manning the blindside for the team we are all chasing in the AFC. He isn't explosive off the ball and his hand usage and technique need some major refinement. That said can he play the run, set the edge, funnel things inside and even make some tackles for loss in the backfield? Yes, I think he can. The Bills missed Shaq Lawson in that regard last year and I think Basham could help in the rotation early in that regard. As for Spencer Brown - the Bills value there was more in line with mine. I had a late 3rd on him and while I had about a dozen guys still ahead of him on my board in terms of BPA the spot the Bills picked him was perfectly aligned with where he made sense to me (he was my #82 overall player). The kid has a very high ceiling. He could be a monster. Brandon talked about him being their swing tackle early and while I'm not totally sold that he is anywhere close to ready to man the left side in the NFL at this point I like him a lot as a Darryl Williams's successor at right tackle either after 2021 or 2022 if the Bills decide to take their relatively cheap options to get out from that deal and save money a that spot. Just one final point the Bills' picks so far... there was a theory here a few weeks ago that the Bills would look unfavourably on guys who opted out of 2020 for covid reasons, but so far they have taken 1 opt out and a guy whose team didn't play and who declined to transfer. Worth thinking about as we consider what they might do in day 3. Essentially - nothing is off the table. 

 

What about the other 31....

I said it in the day 2 thread yesterday but my perception of this draft is definitely that broadly the AFC teams are crushing it and the NFC teams.... meh. Let's start with the defending AFC champs because the road runs through Arrowhead until it doesn't. To get Orlando Brown in a trade and then use their two second round picks on Creed Humphrey (who will be an immediate upgrade at center as a rookie) and Nick Bolton who is that kind of lower ceiling but high floor guy to succeed Anthony Hitchens who is overpaid and whose deal they can get out of cheaply after this season is a really good haul for them. Cleveland got two of my favourite players in this draft in Greg Newsome and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah who address their need which was playmakers in the back 7 on defense. With the exception of taking the running back so early on day 2 I like that Denver has done too. Patrick Surtain was my #2 overall player and they snagged him at #9 and then moving back twice in round three ended up with Quinn Meinerz and Baron Browning who were both excellent value at those spots. Within our own division I also think that Miami's first 4 picks in this draft will all end up as starters and the Jets added Elijah Moore last night to Vera-Tucker on night one. Of course with both the question remains Quarterback. I liked the two picks the Patriots made last night too. Ronnie Perkins had some of the most fun tape to watch in the whole draft and he and Barmore are such Bill Belichick type selections. So while I have praised a few AFC rivals there the Cincinnati Bengals who can't pass protect and yet passed on one of the best left tackle prospects in a decade on Thursday, moved back when there were still viable left tackles on the board early last night and then picked Jackson Carman who to my eye is a massive reach and lacks the technique to play tackle in the NFL. If anyone has a clue what the logic behind that is then answers on a postcard please... they did take Joseph Ossai early in round 3 where I think he represented excellent value. If I had to pick an NFC team whose draft so far stands out to me then the Washington Football Team would be near the top of that list. Jamin Davis is a tonesetter for that defense at the 2nd level and then Samuel Cosmi is a high ceiling swing at filling the hole Trent Williams left at offensive tackle before snagging Dyami Brown who I'd almost be willing to guarantee will outperform his draft slot in the early 3rd. One additional reflection on this draft rather than a team specifically is in regards to the running back position. @glazeduck and I were discussing last week the fact that this is not a great running back class. I only had 7 guys graded in the first four rounds, which is way down on normal. Only 4 of those have gone off the board so far and just for comparison's sake by the end of round 3 last year 11 running backs had been selected, and in 2019 which also wasn't a great running back class 7 had gone by this stage. There will be a run on running backs at some point on day 3, there always is... but don't be shocked if it takes until round 5 to commence. Strange down year at the position and I do wonder if this is the future where running back classes are thinner and receiver classes are deeper as college teams become increasingly pass happy. 

 

What's left?

There are 46 players left on my board that I have watched enough to have a grade on. The top two Daviyon Nixon and Jabril Cox still being there are shockers to me. They are absolutely sticking out on my board more so even that JOK and Moehrig were after round 1. If the Bills had a 4th round pick I'd almost be begging them to trade up for one of those guys such is the value but given we don't I'm not sure we could get to the top of the round without parting with picks next year in what promises to be a better draft, so I'd hold off. My top 15 remaining is below:

 

1. Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa

2. Jabril Cox, LB, LSU

3. Michael Carter, RB, North Carolina

4. Jay Tufele, DT, USC

5. James Hudson, OT, Cincinnati

6. Quincy Roche, DE, Miami

7. Tony Fields, LB, West Virginia

8. Jamar Johnson, S, Indiana

9. Trey Smith, OG, Tennessee

10. James Wiggins, S, Cincinnati

11. Shi Smith, WR, South Carolina

12. Tyler Shelvin, DT, LSU

13. Brevin Jordan, TE, Miami

14. Derrick Barnes, LB, Purdue

15. Stone Forsyth, OT, Florida

 

In terms of guys there that would be of interest to the Bills.... well the top 2 on that list should be of interest to everyone and I'd be stunned if either lasts beyond the first 10 or so picks today. I think Carter, Tufele, Johnson, Wiggins (who the Bills met with), Smith, Shelvin and Jordan would all make sense to some extent or another if they lasted until pick #161 (which for those who are interested is the pick we got from the Raiders for Zay Jones). As has been widely commented on it is a shallow draft class overall and you are going to see fewer good players come out of day 3 than normal but there will be some and my advice to Brandon Beane would be to draft to those position groups where there is depth. I think wide receiver, 1 technique defensive tackles (the run has not even started there yet which is good news for Buffalo) and safety are the three that by my reckoning have the most guys capable of playing in the league left on the board. 

 

Let's see if the burglar Beane can find a gem or two. Enjoy the craziness that is the final day of the NFL draft folks. After this it is a long wait until next year's. 

[Philo]

Thank you for your insight as always, Gunner.

 

For the record, I'm with you on scratching my head at what the Bengals are doing. I know a big Bengals fan and all we talked about this year was the need to protect Burrow. Passing on Sewell was criminal. 

 

What scares me the most so far is the Jets and Fins adding speedy wide receivers. 

[Solomon Grundy]

11 minutes ago, Philo said:

Thank you for your insight as always, Gunner.

 

For the record, I'm with you on scratching my head at what the Bengals are doing. I know a big Bengals fan and all we talked about this year was the need to protect Burrow. Passing on Sewell was criminal. 

 

What scares me the most so far is the Jets and Fins adding speedy wide receivers. 

Cleveland is having a great draft too

[Frat-Train]

Trade both 5ths and grab big nasty, Trey Smith!  Nice write up, Gunner!!!!

[HappyDays]

I've heard Basham compared to Shaq Lawson and I know you liked Lawson a lot, so I'm curious to know your thoughts on that comparison. Basham of the 3 picks so far is the one I feel the least excited about because I worry his ceiling is limited. Seems too similar to Epenesa for my liking. But part of me is excited to see what the Bills can do with all these pass rushers. I can foresee some really exotic pass rush packages.

[MasterStrategist]

Thanks Gunner, great assessment (as always)!

 

Beane was asked during his presser last night/early this am, if they considered CB with either selection.  Def hones in on your BPA mentality, as to why we went with who we did.  But to me, speaks to what they think Dane/Levi can provide.  Someone like Sherman could always be added, and perhaps that's the plan all along, but this wasn't like Rd 1 where we targeted BP at a certain position.  

 

Building the trenches, if we hit on these guys, will typically payoff.  I like the vision/planning of having a potential future starting tackle ready to slot in, in 2022 or 2023.

 

To finish the draft,will depend on who slides.  But think WR has some depth, so someone likely in the 5th.  Would really like if Rochelle is their in the 5th too, or maybe one of the DTs slide.  TE will certainly be in play too

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

I've heard Basham compared to Shaq Lawson and I know you liked Lawson a lot, so I'm curious to know your thoughts on that comparison. Basham of the 3 picks so far is the one I feel the least excited about because I worry his ceiling is limited. Seems too similar to Epenesa for my liking. But part of me is excited to see what the Bills can do with all these pass rushers. I can foresee some really exotic pass rush packages.

 

I see the comparison in terms the way they play the run game. The Bills missed Shaq's discipline last year IMO he is great at funneling the run game back inside (albeit even if he had done that last year our inside run defense wasn't great anyway). I think Boogie will do that well. I really liked Shaq coming our because of his hand technique and I think Basham is less refined in that area, I also thought Shaq had a few more moves than Boogie. That said, I also dismissed Shaq's lack of burst off the ball and that has held him back from reaching his ceiling so far in the league, so it concerns me a bit more now I see the same from Basham. I agree with you he is my least favourite of the 3 picks and is the lowest ceiling but if having three edge guys in the first two rounds over the last two drafts cures Bandon's fetish for 30+ edge rushers then that in itself will be a win. 

[Shaw66]

39 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I see the comparison in terms the way they play the run game. The Bills missed Shaq's discipline last year IMO he is great at funneling the run game back inside (albeit even if he had done that last year our inside run defense wasn't great anyway). I think Boogie will do that well. I really liked Shaq coming our because of his hand technique and I think Basham is less refined in that area, I also thought Shaq had a few more moves than Boogie. That said, I also dismissed Shaq's lack of burst off the ball and that has held him back from reaching his ceiling so far in the league, so it concerns me a bit more now I see the same from Basham. I agree with you he is my least favourite of the 3 picks and is the lowest ceiling but if having three edge guys in the first two rounds over the last two drafts cures Bandon's fetish for 30+ edge rushers then that in itself will be a win. 

A couple of comments, about this and in general.  First, thanks for your coverage.  You've become my go-to draft guy.

 

Basham - I watched just a highlight video, and a few images struck me as a Jerry Hughes type, now that Jerry plays his position with such discipline.   Basham looks like that.   He plays his position with determination and passion, but first and foremost, he plays his position.  Someone said they took Rousseau for his ceiling and Basham for his floor, and I think that's a good statement.   Basham looks like he can come in and play pretty quickly.  Basham-Shaq?  I think Shaq underperforms his talent and maybe always will.   McBeane didn't pick him, and they didn't keep him, and I think it's because Shaq didn't have the mindset.   Shaq wasn't about the relentless pursuit of excellence.   Basham looks like he is.   Basham looks like you can get Shaq's run defense from him, but you also can get some serious pass rush and pursuit.  Finally, as I said elsewhere, it's really telling that the Bills had a deal in place to trade back and backed out of the deal when Basham was still on the board.   McBeane must really like in him. 

 

Brown - offensive linemen that tall make me nervous.  It's tough for guys that tall to be effective, but when they are, they're awesome.  Like Rousseau, another high ceiling guy.  

 

Since he arrived, Beane has been transparent about how he goes after talent.  Get your talent in the draft, fill holes in free agency.  In the draft, take the best talent on the board in the first few rounds, regardless of position, because the draft is your best opportunity to get talent.   Take guys with upside - Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, Rousseau, Brown - because that's your best chance eventually to have stars on your team.  

 

Day three and the undrafted free agents is where a GM really can have impact.  Everyone can tell who the best 100 players in the draft are; finding guys who will make your team in the next 200 makes a lot of difference for your team. 

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

A couple of comments, about this and in general.  First, thanks for your coverage.  You've become my go-to draft guy.

 

Basham - I watched just a highlight video, and a few images struck me as a Jerry Hughes type, now that Jerry plays his position with such discipline.   Basham looks like that.   He plays his position with determination and passion, but first and foremost, he plays his position.  Someone said they took Rousseau for his ceiling and Basham for his floor, and I think that's a good statement.   Basham looks like he can come in and play pretty quickly.  Basham-Shaq?  I think Shaq underperforms his talent and maybe always will.   McBeane didn't pick him, and they didn't keep him, and I think it's because Shaq didn't have the mindset.   Shaq wasn't about the relentless pursuit of excellence.   Basham looks like he is.   Basham looks like you can get Shaq's run defense from him, but you also can get some serious pass rush and pursuit.  Finally, as I said elsewhere, it's really telling that the Bills had a deal in place to trade back and backed out of the deal when Basham was still on the board.   McBeane must really like in him. 

 

Brown - offensive linemen that tall make me nervous.  It's tough for guys that tall to be effective, but when they are, they're awesome.  Like Rousseau, another high ceiling guy.  

 

Since he arrived, Beane has been transparent about how he goes after talent.  Get your talent in the draft, fill holes in free agency.  In the draft, take the best talent on the board in the first few rounds, regardless of position, because the draft is your best opportunity to get talent.   Take guys with upside - Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, Rousseau, Brown - because that's your best chance eventually to have stars on your team.  

 

Day three and the undrafted free agents is where a GM really can have impact.  Everyone can tell who the best 100 players in the draft are; finding guys who will make your team in the next 200 makes a lot of difference for your team. 

 

Rousseau for ceiling and Basham for floor is a pretty good one line summary. I am not, however, convinced he is gonna be a more successful pass rusher (Boogie that is) than Shaq. Just don't see how he wins consistently against NFL tackles. 

[NewEra]

The chiefs traded the 31st pick for a stud LT and the best center in the draft.  The Bolton pick was amazing too. Perfect fit.  **** that team

[LABILLBACKER]

Gunner well done...great synopsis. I absolutely loved the Rousseau/Basham picks. If all 3 of our young DE's pan out we could be set for awhile. Brown will need to fill in to that 6-9 frame, but it was a decent value pick and insurance with DW. Not having a 4th is driving me nuts as Jabril Cox is one of my favorite mid round players.