Hermes Posted April 30, 2021 Author Posted April 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, Georgie said: I think you are high to think all this could happen. Cant force teams to trade with you It's not like I said it was some rumor or bound to happen. Just a thought I had about trading up
IgotBILLStopay Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 45 minutes ago, Hermes said: The way the draft is looking I think it would be beneficial to trade up in the 2nd and 3rd rounds to ensure the Bills get contributors. How this gets accomplished is a bit of a conundrum.. so I got to thinking how to make this work. The idea that sprung to mind was to trade next year's 1st, this year's 2nd, 3rd, 5ths, and 6th for a 2nd next year, and a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th this year. It would have to be after a few picks go in the 2nd tonight but I think the value is close. It would look something like this when it's all said and done Bills receive Team X (Carolina) receives 39 61 73 93 113 161 174 213 2022 2nd 2022 1st The draft is light on talent this year with all of the opt outs and next year should have higher end players available in the second compared to this year. So the drop off isn't as significant losing a first next year since more (better) players will be available. The likelihood of this happening is probably negligible but a man can dream I was going to dismiss it - but looking at it closely, it is not so bad. The main reason it is not so bad is that the Bills are likely to pick around 30 next year while the Panthers should pick around 40 - so the move up this year is only at the cost of moving down about 10 slots. Stated like that it appears we are the ones fleecing. Of course we give up a first rounder with a a 5th year guaranteed - that evens things up a bit. Otherwise, trading future firsts is like waving a red flag to a bull (and I am one of the bulls). OP - if you add this analysis to your post, folks here may be a bit kinder in their evaluations:)
TheBeaneBandit Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 16 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said: I was going to dismiss it - but looking at it closely, it is not so bad. The main reason it is not so bad is that the Bills are likely to pick around 30 next year while the Panthers should pick around 40 - so the move up this year is only at the cost of moving down about 10 slots. Stated like that it appears we are the ones fleecing. Of course we give up a first rounder with a a 5th year guaranteed - that evens things up a bit. Otherwise, trading future firsts is like waving a red flag to a bull (and I am one of the bulls). OP - if you add this analysis to your post, folks here may be a bit kinder in their evaluations:) We can fix this lol
Alphadawg7 Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 I think there is almost no chance at all that Beane trades any premium picks next year like our first or second. Once we pay Josh, draft is going to be critical to keep restocking talent. We won’t be able to keep retaining guys like we did this year after Josh’s new contract is on the books. 1
ColoradoBills Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 If Beane has a guy coming towards him and wants to give up a 5th to move up a couple in the 2nd or 4-5 spots in the 3rd fine. Anything more in this weird draft is a big No for me. 2
Hermes Posted April 30, 2021 Author Posted April 30, 2021 19 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said: I was going to dismiss it - but looking at it closely, it is not so bad. The main reason it is not so bad is that the Bills are likely to pick around 30 next year while the Panthers should pick around 40 - so the move up this year is only at the cost of moving down about 10 slots. Stated like that it appears we are the ones fleecing. Of course we give up a first rounder with a a 5th year guaranteed - that evens things up a bit. Otherwise, trading future firsts is like waving a red flag to a bull (and I am one of the bulls). OP - if you add this analysis to your post, folks here may be a bit kinder in their evaluations:) Those were my thoughts exactly! Although I didn't necessarily convey them like you did here. It's obviously risky and there's almost a zero percent chance of it happening.
Aussie Joe Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: If Beane has a guy coming towards him and wants to give up a 5th to move up a couple in the 2nd or 4-5 spots in the 3rd fine. Anything more in this weird draft is a big No for me. I think I’d rather him ride his luck and keep the pick rather than move up from 61 to 59 .... just my opinion... There are going to be some upside guys left in the 5th due to this weird last year ... they value their scouts so let them find someone ...
Jerboski Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 (edited) Giving up a future first for a pick in a draft class that hasn’t been properly scouted because of COVID and a small pool of players.... hell no Edited April 30, 2021 by Jerboski
Aussie Joe Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 13 minutes ago, Hermes said: Those were my thoughts exactly! Although I didn't necessarily convey them like you did here. It's obviously risky and there's almost a zero percent chance of it happening. Would you be happy if the Bills were in Carolina’s position and made such a trade?
ColoradoBills Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: I think I’d rather him ride his luck and keep the pick rather than move up from 61 to 59 .... just my opinion... There are going to be some upside guys left in the 5th due to this weird last year ... they value their scouts so let them find someone ... I totally agree and hope that's what Beane does. I guess my point was IF he is going to a 5th is the most I would want him to give up. 1
Sherlock Holmes Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said: The mere mention of future 1sts kills this discussion immediately. Off the table. Not an option. I wouldnt mind giving up most of the remaining picks this year to move up and get a guy tho. I'd do this: Bills receive Team X (Carolina) receives McCaffrey 61 93 161 174 213 236 FIFY!!!
Hermes Posted April 30, 2021 Author Posted April 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: Would you be happy if the Bills were in Carolina’s position and made such a trade? I don't know the composition of their roster but I wouldn't be opposed to it, especially if I have a number of late round prospects I feel good about. Realistically this would be the bare minimum it would take for me to do the deal
Aussie Joe Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Hermes said: I don't know the composition of their roster but I wouldn't be opposed to it, especially if I have a number of late round prospects I feel good about. Realistically this would be the bare minimum it would take for me to do the deal Did you look at a value chart when you put this together? Carolina is giving away about 330 points to move down in the 2nd and 3rd and getting back about 35 with the Bills Day 3 picks... Dont think the Bills late first swap for the Panthers mid 2nd next year ... say 30 for 42 is enough to make up the difference Edit.... sorry ... this doesn’t even factor in the 4th round pick the Bills get as well! Edited April 30, 2021 by Aussie Joe
Hermes Posted April 30, 2021 Author Posted April 30, 2021 18 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: Did you look at a value chart when you put this together? Carolina is giving away about 330 points to move down in the 2nd and 3rd and getting back about 35 with the Bills Day 3 picks... Dont think the Bills late first swap for the Panthers mid 2nd next year ... say 30 for 42 is enough to make up the difference Edit.... sorry ... this doesn’t even factor in the 4th round pick the Bills get as well! I didn't. So theoretically the Bills would have to choose to move closer to the middle of the rounds rather than as high up as the Panthers are. Not a terrible trade off. What I find interesting is everyone automatically shooting it down even though if this trade were to happen the Bills would come out on top by quite a bit (the value of a 3rd and 4th?)
Aussie Joe Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 Just now, Hermes said: I didn't. So theoretically the Bills would have to choose to move closer to the middle of the rounds rather than as high up as the Panthers are. Not a terrible trade off. What I find interesting is everyone automatically shooting it down even though if this trade were to happen the Bills would come out on top by quite a bit (the value of a 3rd and 4th?) It’s just unrealistic... the team trading up has to pay overs 1
Nester Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 Next years picks are more valuable then this years picks. This year has so many opt outs and way less info to evaluate.
OldTimer1960 Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 This is the opposite of what Beane stated - looking to build sustainable success.
Hermes Posted April 30, 2021 Author Posted April 30, 2021 1 minute ago, OldTimer1960 said: This is the opposite of what Beane stated - looking to build sustainable success. What do you find unsustainable about the trade? If anything I'd say it's more sustainable because the players your drafting this year will be better than you'd get otherwise and next year having a 2nd instead of a 1st wouldn't be tragic
OldTimer1960 Posted April 30, 2021 Posted April 30, 2021 Just now, Hermes said: What do you find unsustainable about the trade? If anything I'd say it's more sustainable because the players your drafting this year will be better than you'd get otherwise and next year having a 2nd instead of a 1st wouldn't be tragic I think player 1 round later next year are likely comparable or better than this year’s crop - at least more known commodities. Add in that many fewer players declared early this year and I’d expect next year’s draft class to be stronger than this year’s. The Bills’ have a very good scouting staff, but the COVID situation this year has largely negated this advantage. I’ll take my chances
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