RD 1, Pick 30: Greg Rousseau, Edge (Miami) Public Poll Added

[BillsfaninSB]

Unless it is a QB, don’t like projects picks in round 1/2.  Not a fan.   We will be wishing the Bills took E Moore 10 months from now. 

[Shaw66]

13 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

So I just want to comment on our 1st round pick after some of the dust settled and formulate my synopsis.

 

1.  He needs to add some muscle and work on his agility.

2.  He probably will be brought around slow in the 1st half of the season.

3.  He has played other positions so his time as a DL is limited. (14 games in 2 seasons).

4.  First impression is he could easily be a "process" guy.

5.  Has a high ceiling and unusual physical skills but will take time to get there (if he ever does).

6.  Seems that if he doesn't improve where needed his floor could be a little lower than you would want from a 1st round pick.

7.  He will most likely have to start performing well in the 2022 season.

 

I get other fans wanting Beane to draft another player (me included) but it is a need position so I'm OK with that.

It seems to me nobody can say how this will pan out for at least a year.

I can be patient.

 

On to the 2nd round!  Kind of hoping a CB is there.

I think this is a pretty fair assessment.  I've quickly gotten more positive about him than that, but this is certainly defensible.  

 

The thing that is most intriguing about this guy is your comment about agility.   Yeah, he probably could get a little more agile, but that's a difficult thing to improve dramatically.   The thing about Rousseau is that his other skills give him the same result as straight on agility.  

 

That's what Collinsworth is talking about in the brief clip someone posted, and it's what Beane talked about in his presser.   Somehow, this guy gets his hands on the QB.  As Collinsworth said, he looks like he's all arms and legs flailing around, but he ends up with his hands on the QB.   Beane talked about him being a finisher.   

 

Watch the videos.  He isn't exactly agile, but he flops and turns and makes plays over and over with this hands.   Forces fumbles, shoe-string tackles.   He just has a knack for making plays on the ball, and he does with a physical style that is unusual, if not unique.  And he's doing it without any technique.   He just comes off the line, makes contact, makes a read and then separates and gets to the target.  Wait until he learns to his hands as weapons against the blocker, and he could be devastating.  

 

This is a guy who was playing wide receiver and free safety five years ago, and now he's playing DE and maybe DT.   He brings an usual skill set.  

[transplantbillsfan]

Sorry if posted in here... but thought this was an interesting pre-draft bit from Joe B about our first round pick based on best fit.... he puts him at #5 but only because he assumed we would have had to trade up to get him:

https://theathletic.com/2499756/2021/04/06/bills-2021-draft-preview-ranking-the-top-defensive-end-prospects-by-best-fit/

5) Gregory Rousseau, Miami (FL)

Why he’s a fit: As size and untapped potential goes, the 21-year-old Rousseau could be a big-time contributor in the Bills’ scheme down the line. Rousseau is long and lean with enough strength to compete consistently right now but will likely need to get stronger to realize his potential. He uses his arm length of almost 35 inches to disengage from blockers, shows great bend around the edge and has the extra gear when he needs to close on the quarterback. You just do not find Rousseau’s bend around the edge in players with his size, but it comes at a cost with the rest of his game, which has a lot of unknowns and things he has to iron out. If a team develops him correctly, he could be a monster in the right NFL scheme.

 

Why it might not happen: Rousseau is a conflicting case. The reason I like Turner ahead of Rousseau for this list is because of the opportunity cost to draft each player. Given his size, ability, and potential, Rousseau runs a legitimate risk of being selected well before the Bills are on the clock or within the trade-up range. There are elements to Rousseau’s game that give hesitation to the idea of trading up for him. There isn’t a ton of move variation and he can get gobbled up by a blocker if the initial move doesn’t work. The playing strength isn’t quite there despite his size, and he isn’t always the aggressor in the one-on-one pass-rushing battle. He also is a little tight and struggles to change directions. There are also some concerns with his run defending, which could be an issue for the Bills. If he’s available at No. 30, the value meets up with his potential despite how raw he might be at this point. But with Turner being a similar ‘potential’ prospect that they can likely draft later, the Bills might be better served using No. 30 on a different position and targeting Turner in a trade-up from No. 61. I see those two players as similar prospects with how they fit the Bills, so it just matters how the Bills rate them.

Edited April 30, 2021 by transplantbillsfan

[Shaw66]

16 minutes ago, junior12thman92 said:

 

Also, here's Dunlap's highlights from 2019 (I just found a random video from YT, no particular reason why I picked this one). 

 

A number of the plays look like plays that Rousseau made during his 15-sack season (bull rushes, inside moves, using his long arms to disrupt plays, etc.)

Interesting comparison.  Rousseau isn't that strong, at least not yet, but the comparison is quite good.  

[ColoradoBills]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think this is a pretty fair assessment.  I've quickly gotten more positive about him than that, but this is certainly defensible.  

 

The thing that is most intriguing about this guy is your comment about agility.   Yeah, he probably could get a little more agile, but that's a difficult thing to improve dramatically.   The thing about Rousseau is that his other skills give him the same result as straight on agility.  

 

That's what Collinsworth is talking about in the brief clip someone posted, and it's what Beane talked about in his presser.   Somehow, this guy gets his hands on the QB.  As Collinsworth said, he looks like he's all arms and legs flailing around, but he ends up with his hands on the QB.   Beane talked about him being a finisher.   

 

Watch the videos.  He isn't exactly agile, but he flops and turns and makes plays over and over with this hands.   Forces fumbles, shoe-string tackles.   He just has a knack for making plays on the ball, and he does with a physical style that is unusual, if not unique.  And he's doing it without any technique.   He just comes off the line, makes contact, makes a read and then separates and gets to the target.  Wait until he learns to his hands as weapons against the blocker, and he could be devastating.  

 

This is a guy who was playing wide receiver and free safety five years ago, and now he's playing DE and maybe DT.   He brings an usual skill set.  

 

Thanks.  I watched the clips and agree with what you said and I can agree with Collinsworth.

It seems to me he needs training both physically and position wise.  He is going to get that.

The rest will up to him.  I am very hopeful he ends up being a hit!

[NoSaint]

27 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I mean not for nothing but being a year out from playing he may of be further along than we think from training over the year.

also, we can probably all agree that with 1 season and a year off — “needs to develop” and “big project” might have taken off a bit in easy analysis to throw around.

 

not to say that he isn’t a work in progress but sometimes the easy analysis isn’t the thorough and up to date analysis 

 

outside combine numbers, I haven’t seen draft guys doing deep analysis of what hes done all year to grow - drills, coaching, and general training. What’s his film study program been? Surely he’s been in some sort of development system

Edited April 30, 2021 by NoSaint

[Shaw66]

Just now, ColoradoBills said:

 

Thanks.  I watched the clips and agree with what you said and I can agree with Collinsworth.

It seems to me he needs training both physically and position wise.  He is going to get that.

The rest will up to him.  I am very hopeful he ends up being a hit!

I agree.  If you listen to that podcast, they say that Beane's style is to draft high-ceiling guys after having determined that they're hard workers and coachable.   Essentially, they said Beane drafts guy who will be good players if the coaches do their jobs well.  

 

Coaches have to teach Rousseau, and he has to be a good learner.   

1 minute ago, NoSaint said:

 

 

not to say that he isn’t a work in progress but sometimes the easy analysis isn’t the thorough and up to date analysis 

Can you say "Josh Allen"?

[Norcalbillsfan]

10 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Sorry if posted in here... but thought this was an interesting pre-draft bit from Joe B about our first round pick based on best fit.... he puts him at #5 but only because he assumed we would have had to trade up to get him:

https://theathletic.com/2499756/2021/04/06/bills-2021-draft-preview-ranking-the-top-defensive-end-prospects-by-best-fit/

5) Gregory Rousseau, Miami (FL)

Why he’s a fit: As size and untapped potential goes, the 21-year-old Rousseau could be a big-time contributor in the Bills’ scheme down the line. Rousseau is long and lean with enough strength to compete consistently right now but will likely need to get stronger to realize his potential. He uses his arm length of almost 35 inches to disengage from blockers, shows great bend around the edge and has the extra gear when he needs to close on the quarterback. You just do not find Rousseau’s bend around the edge in players with his size, but it comes at a cost with the rest of his game, which has a lot of unknowns and things he has to iron out. If a team develops him correctly, he could be a monster in the right NFL scheme.

 

Why it might not happen: Rousseau is a conflicting case. The reason I like Turner ahead of Rousseau for this list is because of the opportunity cost to draft each player. Given his size, ability, and potential, Rousseau runs a legitimate risk of being selected well before the Bills are on the clock or within the trade-up range. There are elements to Rousseau’s game that give hesitation to the idea of trading up for him. There isn’t a ton of move variation and he can get gobbled up by a blocker if the initial move doesn’t work. The playing strength isn’t quite there despite his size, and he isn’t always the aggressor in the one-on-one pass-rushing battle. He also is a little tight and struggles to change directions. There are also some concerns with his run defending, which could be an issue for the Bills. If he’s available at No. 30, the value meets up with his potential despite how raw he might be at this point. But with Turner being a similar ‘potential’ prospect that they can likely draft later, the Bills might be better served using No. 30 on a different position and targeting Turner in a trade-up from No. 61. I see those two players as similar prospects with how they fit the Bills, so it just matters how the Bills rate them.

"Has an extra gear to close on QBs"  I immediately saw this on his highlights, he has a crazy ability to somehow get his hands on qbs right when the qb thinks he can duck out of the pocket, I would love to see him bring that against mahomes/ Murray ect.

[Logic]

In reading about Rousseau a bunch today, I've seen the following player comparisons mentioned a lot:

Chandler Jones, Justin Tuck, Calais Campbell, Carlos Dunlap, Michael Johnson, and Jason Pierre-Paul. All are comparable in terms of size, athletic profile, and the fact that they get a lot of their pressure from interior alignments on 3rd downs. Obviously, if Rousseau turns out as well as the players listed, it will mean that he has reached his considerable potential, and that the Bills made a good pick. These players represent the optimistic outlook of what Rousseau's career could look like if things go well.

So what exactly have the careers of these players looked like? Using Pro-Football-Reference.com and looking over their careers, this is what I see.

These players average approximately:

11 year playing career
8 sacks per year
1.5 forced fumbles per year
3 Pro Bowls 
1 First Team All-Pro selection

Again, that's just an average. There are years where said players notched less than five sacks, and years where a guy like Chandler Jones got 19.5 sacks. Past results do not necessarily indicate future outcomes, etc, etc. But this gives us a reasonable idea of what a realistic outcome for Rousseau might look like if he reaches his potential.

Edited April 30, 2021 by Logic

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Doc]

30 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

I feel the same way.  Just thinking out loud, how many DL do we expect Beane/McDermott to keep?

Adding 2 puts them in the 10 category unless Johnson is cut (slight chance he would take a PS spot) and/or Butler/Phillips cut.

 

I'm thinking the most they keep on the 53 is 9 (is that wrong)?

 

No idea.  But they absolutely need a NT/1T.

[Codycolo12]

I like the kid. I just don’t know why you draft a guy that will contribute “down the line”, or “red shirt year”. Since when do you draft a guy in the first round that won’t play or play limited snaps? 

[Logic]

5 minutes ago, Codycolo12 said:

I like the kid. I just don’t know why you draft a guy that will contribute “down the line”, or “red shirt year”. Since when do you draft a guy in the first round that won’t play or play limited snaps? 

First, that tends to happen more when you draft 30th. It's new for the Bills, but it's gonna start happening more and more often.

Second, MOST edge rushers -- all but the elite of the elite, the top 5 type guys, the Chase Youngs and Nick Bosas of the world -- are drafted for the future, not the present. It's pretty rare for rookie edge rushers to light the world on fire. Even Chase Young and Myles Garret both had 7 sacks as rookies. Chandler Jones had six. It's not much of an instant impact position.

[TheBeaneBandit]

7 minutes ago, Codycolo12 said:

I like the kid. I just don’t know why you draft a guy that will contribute “down the line”, or “red shirt year”. Since when do you draft a guy in the first round that won’t play or play limited snaps? 

All players in this scheme play limited snaps. Anyways, the pick will pay off thats how drafting goes sometimes when you are winning.

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

Great pick.

 

As good as can be expected at 30

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

10 minutes ago, Codycolo12 said:

I like the kid. I just don’t know why you draft a guy that will contribute “down the line”, or “red shirt year”. Since when do you draft a guy in the first round that won’t play or play limited snaps? 

Since last year

 

[Hebert19]

39 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

It's easy to see a young, inexperienced DE and be concerned ala Maybin #2. 

 

A couple items to note.  This kid is 3" taller and carrying 30-35 more lbs on his frame and at 21 may not be done filling out.  Rousseau is a Speed to Power rusher who can do two things Maybin never could - beat Double teams and seal the edge. 

 

An added benefit is Rousseau can move inside on 3rd down and Bills can use Mario and Jerry outside with this kid and Ed Oliver inside for a Turbo package 4 man rush ala 2007 Giants.  Pressure - especially up the middle - is a killer.  Using Epenesa and Rousseau inside also puts a 6'6" player and 6'7" player into a QBs middle of the field quick hit passing lanes.  With the Bills DBs and LBs playing a QB facing zone D, tipped passes have a high probability of being picked off.  So even if they don't sack or pressure a QB to throw it away, these 2 tall DEs playing inside on passing zones could knock down or tip a couple passes per game.

Maybe we grabbed him to play Tight End.   

[Shaw66]

7 minutes ago, Codycolo12 said:

Since when do you draft a guy in the first round that won’t play or play limited snaps? 

When you can afford it.  The Bills have one of the most talented rosters in the league.  The best they could hope to do at 30 is someone who will take some starters' job, but it's not a guy who at the season is going to be hailed as the guy who put the Bills over the top.  A contributor as a rookie, yes, but a not a game changer.   When you're in that position, you have the luxury of taking someone who is less likely to be an immediate starter but more likely to be one of your star players in three years (and if he really works out, he could be a game changer in year one).  It's a risk, for sure, but it's less of a risk when you have a roster without meaningful holes.  

[Logic]

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2021/04/greg-rousseau-a-top-10-talent-steal-for-buffalo-bills-says-manny-diaz.html

“I think his upside is without limits,” said [Hurricanes coach Manny] Diaz. “I really do. There’s no telling what a 2020 Greg Rousseau would have looked like. All we saw was the 2019 version and that was really his first year playing defensive end... The relentless motor, the length, the ability to bend and move for that size... those are all things that are elite.”

[Norcalbillsfan]

9 minutes ago, Codycolo12 said:

I like the kid. I just don’t know why you draft a guy that will contribute “down the line”, or “red shirt year”. Since when do you draft a guy in the first round that won’t play or play limited snaps? 

I definitely see where you're coming from. My 2 cents on the pick is McBeane probably thought the drop off in talent at edge after Rousseau/Tyron was drastic, Hughes has maybe a year or 2 in the tank, the bills love rotation on the line. Rousseau has freakish ability to put his hands on QBs, we have to hit mahomes with organic pressure. This year he can learn from the great Hughes and on 3rd downs put him out there like the water boy and say "tackle the guy with the football." And if this works out like McDermott hopes,  by next year we could have 2 great young athletes on edge on rookie deals. And I'd be willing to bet they feel like they can still find a cb2 in the 2nd, but didn't feel like they could find high ceiling edge rush in the 2nd. Just my opinions.