Deep Dive into 3 First Round DE Prospects: Who should we pick?

[SoCal Deek]

All’s I can say is we’ve now invested significantly in Oliver, Epinesa and Reuasseau. We’d better start seeing some major production from our D Line in 2021. Sack City? 

[LEBills]

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

All’s I can say is we’ve now invested significantly in Oliver, Epinesa and Reuasseau. We’d better start seeing some major production from our D Line in 2021. Sack City? 

three drafts in a row our top draft pick went to the DLine, I think we are still 1-2 years away from seeing AJ and Greg show anything tho. Hopefully with Star and our future NT pick, Ed can show a bit more this year. He is the one that has to start showing more

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, LEBills said:

three drafts in a row our top draft pick went to the DLine, I think we are still 1-2 years away from seeing AJ and Greg show anything tho. Hopefully with Star and our future NT pick, Ed can show a bit more this year. He is the one that has to start showing more

Exactly. I think many fans have overlooked of how much we’ve invested there. It’s actually amazing how well this team has progressed with so little draft capital elsewhere. It shows how many moving parts it takes to make a football team. I have great respect for the GM and Head Coach...it’s not a job for the weak minded or scared. 

[GunnerBill]

56 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

 

Interestingly enough during the presser Brandon Beane specifically mentioned how Rousseau up at his Pro Day putting on some weight, which he indicated as a positive. I'm not debating your perception or belief that he showed up in less-than-stellar physical shape, but it does appear Beane disagrees with you based on his post-Draft comments. 

 

He did mention the weight, he also mentioned that they would want to get their medical guys to "check things like body fat percentage" so I suspect Brandon Beane also believes, as I do, that not all of that extra weight was functional weight. 

[LEBills]

13 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Exactly. I think many fans have overlooked of how much we’ve invested there. It’s actually amazing how well this team has progressed with so little draft capital elsewhere. It shows how many moving parts it takes to make a football team. I have great respect for the GM and Head Coach...it’s not a job for the weak minded or scared. 

Thats the luxury of having a QB on a rookie deal, things are about to change big time. So I’d be pretty shocked if we don’t draft a CB next since that is another expensive premium position like defensive end that we need good, cheap production from.

 

Getting our QB right was the tough part, but managing a team with a QB on a massive deal is not going to be easy either. Let’s hope these recent drafts hit on a lot of players!

Edited April 30, 2021 by LEBills

[MiltonWaddams]

16 minutes ago, LEBills said:

three drafts in a row our top draft pick went to the DLine, I think we are still 1-2 years away from seeing AJ and Greg show anything tho. Hopefully with Star and our future NT pick, Ed can show a bit more this year. He is the one that has to start showing more

I agree with Rousseau needing time, but AJ had some strong games later in the season. He might just start showing out this season. I’d expect less sacks and more tfl’s based on what I saw, but the door is open for him with both Addison and Hughes aging.

[aristocrat]

You’re having a great day. Combo of sweat and jpg....sign me up 

[LEBills]

Just now, MiltonWaddams said:

I agree with Rousseau needing time, but AJ had some strong games later in the season. He might just start showing out this season. I’d expect less sacks and more tfl’s based on what I saw, but the door is open for him with both Addison and Hughes aging.

I though AJ popped on occasion later in the regular season too. I still think the plan is for next year when Addison and Hughes are gone so I’m not expecting much prior so anything else is a bonus!

[Chandler#81]

18 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Pass rusher has been our number 1 need since the AFC championship game and McD said it himself - 

 

 

And we have basically punted during free agency since the elite pass rushers were too rich for us - we did get Obada, but how much of an impact he is going to have is to be seen (I am excited to see what he can do).

 

That means basically it is one of two positions that every observer from here to Timbuctoo expects the Bills to target in the draft (the other being CB 2). Josh Allen basically admitted as much when he said he expects the Bills to go defense heavy in the draft.

 

I have basically 3 Edge Rushers - Kwity Paye, Greg Rousseau and Jaelan Phillips in some detail (I also looked at Jayson Oweh and Azeez Ojulari is somewhat less detail) - and here are my pre-draft thoughts on their relative strengths and weaknesses. These 3 have been the consensus first rounders for over a year now. 

 

Kwity Paye appears to have the highest floor and I love his refugee story and he will be a pretty safe pick - but I have concerns about his ceiling. I think he is a slightly more powerful Shaq Lawson without any shoulder issues that derailed Lawson's rookie campaign. He gets in position for run blocks pretty well - but on the flip side he does get blocked easily despite being in position. He plays a lot lighter than his stated 261 lb weight. My biggest concern about him is that he gets faked too often (like Edmunds on his rookie campaign)- I think he will be a bit of a liability in the run game. He is an athletic freak and keeps fighting to win against the Olineman (so has a great motor). But he does not appear to have an overpowering first move trait that will lead to quick wins at the LOS. And you want a first rounder to not just hold his own but dominate at least once in a while. I usually pay more attention to 10 yard split timings than the 40 yard dash and he was a trifle slow at 1.66 secs. 

 

Here is one highlight video

 

 

Jaelan Phillips is another athletic freak. He has all the right measurables and had an outstanding 2020 campaign with 7 sacks in just 10 games. He has an explosive first step and a decent motor.  I thought speed was a weakness till he ran a 1.59 10 yard split on his pro-day. The only red flag is the medical history. He is young and I am not worried about his wrist injury - looks to have healed well. But concussions are another animal altogether. If it was serious enough for him to quit football (and come back ofc), I am worried. IF medical issues are not a concern - he is the clear no. 1 choice. But the concussion history is real. McD's familiarity with Manny Diaz will hopefully help in the Bills getting some insider info on the medicals - but no coach can ethically say anything bad about his player - so I dont know.

 

Here are his highlights! Drool away.

 

 

 

Greg Rousseau was a consensus top 10 (maybe top 5) pick after the 2019 season. And he has not played a game since then and more importantly has no injury concerns. You dont get 15.5 sacks in a P5 conference by accident folks. That too after becoming a starter only 5 games into the season. 

 

First - the guy is a legit 6'6" with an 83 inch wingspan - see how many times the offensive player thinks he has eluded Rousseau - but still gets run down. That is the wingspan showing - you cant acquire it. Dont get fooled by his slow 40 yard time - that is pretty useless for a D lineman. His 10 yard split was a scorching 1.57 secs. That tells you how quickly he can get off his blocks. And Rousseau has the best motor of all three guys. Several of his sacks are where he actually chases guys down. Let us see Mahomes try to run away from him. And dont knock him for opting out. It was the smart decision given the uncertainty of the college season at the time. He makes immediate money for his family, does not risk injury and still gets drafted early.

 

Coming to the reason the pundits (like PFF) are bailing on him 🙄. His pro day performance across the board - yes his 40 time was slow but that is a useless drill at his position. He bench pressed 21 times - and that is actually fantastic given his nearly 35 inch arms! He also has 11 inch hands to grab the QB and hold on. The broad jump and vertical jump are again completely useless for a Dlineman. The only drill that should cause concern is the 3-cone - which actually does speak to his bending and change of direction ability. He knocked the obstacle down on his first two tries and then was clocked a slow 7.5 on his third attempt. Anyone would be slow running a third time. Even if he is bad on that drill relative to his peers - the game tape doesnt lie. The guy has amazing bend. Apparently he did put on some weight in 2020 - but a summer of conditioning with the Bills staff and he will be in top shape come September. I am a bit old school - I think of every combine standout as Mike Mamula and rely more on game tape. He has the highest ceiling of the three. Take Montez Sweat and JPP and mix them up and you get Rousseau. What is there not to like? Dont believe the pundits on this one and seize the opportunity.

 

 

 

 Bottomline: My pick order would be 1. Greg Rousseau 2. Jaelan Phillips 3. Kwity Paye. If the Bills are convinced Phillips' medicals are not worrisome - I dont mind going 1. Phillips 2. Rousseau and 3. Paye. Phillips has the best burst and Rousseau the best motor. If I am worried about Brady / Brees like QBs who get rid of the ball early - I'd go Phillips. If I am worried about the Wilson / Mahomes / Allen / Lamar type, I go Rousseau. Or jsut wait till one is taken and trade up to take the other.   These two guys are elite talents who would likely have gone top 10 in a normal year.  It is time to shoot the moon folks! We have a decent line but, as McD observed, we need difference makers - not just decent players. And these two are difference makers - way more than Kwity Paye. The offensive draft strength (OLs,  QBs, WRs) in 2021 gives us a shot at one of these two (at least one should be there at 20+) and we should trade up to get him. 

I just gained a lot more respect for your contributions! 

Outstanding!

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, LEBills said:

Thats the luxury of having a QB on a rookie deal, things are about to change big time. So I’d be pretty shocked if we don’t draft a CB next since that is another expensive premium position like defensive end that we need good, cheap production from.

 

Getting our QB right was the tough part, but managing a team with a QB on a massive deal is not going to be easy either. Let’s hope these recent drafts hit on a lot of players!

Another excellent point. Things are going to change for sure but I’m guessing in a choice between the two, every team would prefer the ‘problem’ of having a young franchise QB. 😉

[bobobonators]

18 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Pass rusher has been our number 1 need since the AFC championship game and McD said it himself - 

 

 

And we have basically punted during free agency since the elite pass rushers were too rich for us - we did get Obada, but how much of an impact he is going to have is to be seen (I am excited to see what he can do).

 

That means basically it is one of two positions that every observer from here to Timbuctoo expects the Bills to target in the draft (the other being CB 2). Josh Allen basically admitted as much when he said he expects the Bills to go defense heavy in the draft.

 

I have basically 3 Edge Rushers - Kwity Paye, Greg Rousseau and Jaelan Phillips in some detail (I also looked at Jayson Oweh and Azeez Ojulari is somewhat less detail) - and here are my pre-draft thoughts on their relative strengths and weaknesses. These 3 have been the consensus first rounders for over a year now. 

 

Kwity Paye appears to have the highest floor and I love his refugee story and he will be a pretty safe pick - but I have concerns about his ceiling. I think he is a slightly more powerful Shaq Lawson without any shoulder issues that derailed Lawson's rookie campaign. He gets in position for run blocks pretty well - but on the flip side he does get blocked easily despite being in position. He plays a lot lighter than his stated 261 lb weight. My biggest concern about him is that he gets faked too often (like Edmunds on his rookie campaign)- I think he will be a bit of a liability in the run game. He is an athletic freak and keeps fighting to win against the Olineman (so has a great motor). But he does not appear to have an overpowering first move trait that will lead to quick wins at the LOS. And you want a first rounder to not just hold his own but dominate at least once in a while. I usually pay more attention to 10 yard split timings than the 40 yard dash and he was a trifle slow at 1.66 secs. 

 

Here is one highlight video

 

 

Jaelan Phillips is another athletic freak. He has all the right measurables and had an outstanding 2020 campaign with 7 sacks in just 10 games. He has an explosive first step and a decent motor.  I thought speed was a weakness till he ran a 1.59 10 yard split on his pro-day. The only red flag is the medical history. He is young and I am not worried about his wrist injury - looks to have healed well. But concussions are another animal altogether. If it was serious enough for him to quit football (and come back ofc), I am worried. IF medical issues are not a concern - he is the clear no. 1 choice. But the concussion history is real. McD's familiarity with Manny Diaz will hopefully help in the Bills getting some insider info on the medicals - but no coach can ethically say anything bad about his player - so I dont know.

 

Here are his highlights! Drool away.

 

 

 

Greg Rousseau was a consensus top 10 (maybe top 5) pick after the 2019 season. And he has not played a game since then and more importantly has no injury concerns. You dont get 15.5 sacks in a P5 conference by accident folks. That too after becoming a starter only 5 games into the season. 

 

First - the guy is a legit 6'6" with an 83 inch wingspan - see how many times the offensive player thinks he has eluded Rousseau - but still gets run down. That is the wingspan showing - you cant acquire it. Dont get fooled by his slow 40 yard time - that is pretty useless for a D lineman. His 10 yard split was a scorching 1.57 secs. That tells you how quickly he can get off his blocks. And Rousseau has the best motor of all three guys. Several of his sacks are where he actually chases guys down. Let us see Mahomes try to run away from him. And dont knock him for opting out. It was the smart decision given the uncertainty of the college season at the time. He makes immediate money for his family, does not risk injury and still gets drafted early.

 

Coming to the reason the pundits (like PFF) are bailing on him 🙄. His pro day performance across the board - yes his 40 time was slow but that is a useless drill at his position. He bench pressed 21 times - and that is actually fantastic given his nearly 35 inch arms! He also has 11 inch hands to grab the QB and hold on. The broad jump and vertical jump are again completely useless for a Dlineman. The only drill that should cause concern is the 3-cone - which actually does speak to his bending and change of direction ability. He knocked the obstacle down on his first two tries and then was clocked a slow 7.5 on his third attempt. Anyone would be slow running a third time. Even if he is bad on that drill relative to his peers - the game tape doesnt lie. The guy has amazing bend. Apparently he did put on some weight in 2020 - but a summer of conditioning with the Bills staff and he will be in top shape come September. I am a bit old school - I think of every combine standout as Mike Mamula and rely more on game tape. He has the highest ceiling of the three. Take Montez Sweat and JPP and mix them up and you get Rousseau. What is there not to like? Dont believe the pundits on this one and seize the opportunity.

 

 

 

 Bottomline: My pick order would be 1. Greg Rousseau 2. Jaelan Phillips 3. Kwity Paye. If the Bills are convinced Phillips' medicals are not worrisome - I dont mind going 1. Phillips 2. Rousseau and 3. Paye. Phillips has the best burst and Rousseau the best motor. If I am worried about Brady / Brees like QBs who get rid of the ball early - I'd go Phillips. If I am worried about the Wilson / Mahomes / Allen / Lamar type, I go Rousseau. Or jsut wait till one is taken and trade up to take the other.   These two guys are elite talents who would likely have gone top 10 in a normal year.  It is time to shoot the moon folks! We have a decent line but, as McD observed, we need difference makers - not just decent players. And these two are difference makers - way more than Kwity Paye. The offensive draft strength (OLs,  QBs, WRs) in 2021 gives us a shot at one of these two (at least one should be there at 20+) and we should trade up to get him. 

Well done buddy

[GunnerBill]

30 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

All’s I can say is we’ve now invested significantly in Oliver, Epinesa and Reuasseau. We’d better start seeing some major production from our D Line in 2021. Sack City? 

 

I'd expect a bump in 2021, certainly but I think 2022 and beyond might be when this line really explodes. 

[Just Joshin']

Nice job.  A very interesting post round 1 read.

[T master]

Looks like from watching the tape on Rosseau he has great vision to see where the play is going i hope it translates to the NFL i know he will be in good hands with Jerry teaching him the ropes & if Epenessa turns into who they thought he could be the Bills could have some good book ends on the D for years to come ...

[BigAl2526]

Well, obviously Buffalo didn't get a sniff at either Phillips or Paye.  I'm not going to repeat what I said on a thread about Rousseau, but I don't thinkk the Bills will want him to lose a lot of weight at that height.  I think he can work on agility, and the Bills will want him to get stronger.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

All’s I can say is we’ve now invested significantly in Oliver, Epinesa and Reuasseau. We’d better start seeing some major production from our D Line in 2021. Sack City? 

 

Yeah, it's really "Stand and Deliver" time for Beane's selections on DL.  We need Epinosa, Oliver, Phillips, and Rousseau to produce.

[Big Blitz]

20 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

HMMM... my understanding is that there has almost never been a DE taken as low as 30 whom has been an impact NFL player.    So I am saying pass on DE as the ones with any real promise will be gone by pick 30.   

 

 

 

 

Calais Campbell 

Jason Taylor (too skinny right)

Jared Allen 

 

And just recently Danielle Hunter

[Solomon Grundy]

21 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Pass rusher has been our number 1 need since the AFC championship game and McD said it himself - 

 

 

And we have basically punted during free agency since the elite pass rushers were too rich for us - we did get Obada, but how much of an impact he is going to have is to be seen (I am excited to see what he can do).

 

That means basically it is one of two positions that every observer from here to Timbuctoo expects the Bills to target in the draft (the other being CB 2). Josh Allen basically admitted as much when he said he expects the Bills to go defense heavy in the draft.

 

I have basically 3 Edge Rushers - Kwity Paye, Greg Rousseau and Jaelan Phillips in some detail (I also looked at Jayson Oweh and Azeez Ojulari is somewhat less detail) - and here are my pre-draft thoughts on their relative strengths and weaknesses. These 3 have been the consensus first rounders for over a year now. 

 

Kwity Paye appears to have the highest floor and I love his refugee story and he will be a pretty safe pick - but I have concerns about his ceiling. I think he is a slightly more powerful Shaq Lawson without any shoulder issues that derailed Lawson's rookie campaign. He gets in position for run blocks pretty well - but on the flip side he does get blocked easily despite being in position. He plays a lot lighter than his stated 261 lb weight. My biggest concern about him is that he gets faked too often (like Edmunds on his rookie campaign)- I think he will be a bit of a liability in the run game. He is an athletic freak and keeps fighting to win against the Olineman (so has a great motor). But he does not appear to have an overpowering first move trait that will lead to quick wins at the LOS. And you want a first rounder to not just hold his own but dominate at least once in a while. I usually pay more attention to 10 yard split timings than the 40 yard dash and he was a trifle slow at 1.66 secs. 

 

Here is one highlight video

 

 

Jaelan Phillips is another athletic freak. He has all the right measurables and had an outstanding 2020 campaign with 7 sacks in just 10 games. He has an explosive first step and a decent motor.  I thought speed was a weakness till he ran a 1.59 10 yard split on his pro-day. The only red flag is the medical history. He is young and I am not worried about his wrist injury - looks to have healed well. But concussions are another animal altogether. If it was serious enough for him to quit football (and come back ofc), I am worried. IF medical issues are not a concern - he is the clear no. 1 choice. But the concussion history is real. McD's familiarity with Manny Diaz will hopefully help in the Bills getting some insider info on the medicals - but no coach can ethically say anything bad about his player - so I dont know.

 

Here are his highlights! Drool away.

 

 

 

Greg Rousseau was a consensus top 10 (maybe top 5) pick after the 2019 season. And he has not played a game since then and more importantly has no injury concerns. You dont get 15.5 sacks in a P5 conference by accident folks. That too after becoming a starter only 5 games into the season. 

 

First - the guy is a legit 6'6" with an 83 inch wingspan - see how many times the offensive player thinks he has eluded Rousseau - but still gets run down. That is the wingspan showing - you cant acquire it. Dont get fooled by his slow 40 yard time - that is pretty useless for a D lineman. His 10 yard split was a scorching 1.57 secs. That tells you how quickly he can get off his blocks. And Rousseau has the best motor of all three guys. Several of his sacks are where he actually chases guys down. Let us see Mahomes try to run away from him. And dont knock him for opting out. It was the smart decision given the uncertainty of the college season at the time. He makes immediate money for his family, does not risk injury and still gets drafted early.

 

Coming to the reason the pundits (like PFF) are bailing on him 🙄. His pro day performance across the board - yes his 40 time was slow but that is a useless drill at his position. He bench pressed 21 times - and that is actually fantastic given his nearly 35 inch arms! He also has 11 inch hands to grab the QB and hold on. The broad jump and vertical jump are again completely useless for a Dlineman. The only drill that should cause concern is the 3-cone - which actually does speak to his bending and change of direction ability. He knocked the obstacle down on his first two tries and then was clocked a slow 7.5 on his third attempt. Anyone would be slow running a third time. Even if he is bad on that drill relative to his peers - the game tape doesnt lie. The guy has amazing bend. Apparently he did put on some weight in 2020 - but a summer of conditioning with the Bills staff and he will be in top shape come September. I am a bit old school - I think of every combine standout as Mike Mamula and rely more on game tape. He has the highest ceiling of the three. Take Montez Sweat and JPP and mix them up and you get Rousseau. What is there not to like? Dont believe the pundits on this one and seize the opportunity.

 

 

 

 Bottomline: My pick order would be 1. Greg Rousseau 2. Jaelan Phillips 3. Kwity Paye. If the Bills are convinced Phillips' medicals are not worrisome - I dont mind going 1. Phillips 2. Rousseau and 3. Paye. Phillips has the best burst and Rousseau the best motor. If I am worried about Brady / Brees like QBs who get rid of the ball early - I'd go Phillips. If I am worried about the Wilson / Mahomes / Allen / Lamar type, I go Rousseau. Or jsut wait till one is taken and trade up to take the other.   These two guys are elite talents who would likely have gone top 10 in a normal year.  It is time to shoot the moon folks! We have a decent line but, as McD observed, we need difference makers - not just decent players. And these two are difference makers - way more than Kwity Paye. The offensive draft strength (OLs,  QBs, WRs) in 2021 gives us a shot at one of these two (at least one should be there at 20+) and we should trade up to get him. 

You sir are a sage!!

[gordong]

21 hours ago, mjt328 said:

Not sure I agree.  In my opinion, Gregory Rousseau is a huge risk.  When I watch his skills on tape, I really question how he projects to the NFL level.  Physically, he is extremely tall and skinny, with really long arms.  Usually these kinds of pass rushers are also fast/quick around the edge.  The best ones also have good hands.  But Rousseau is actually quite slow, and is very raw with his hand-skills.  Strangely, almost all of his sacks come from the 3-Tech (Defensive Tackle) position.  So once he reaches the NFL, he needs to put on lots of muscle/weight and be developed from the ground-up.

 

I think Jaelen Phillips is the best DE of the bunch.  He's got the perfect combination of strength, size, speed, etc.  But in today's NFL, that concussion history is frightening.  One bad knock and he could be out several games.  Or it could end his career.  Hopefully the Bills can get an inside on his medicals (same with Caleb Farley) because he could be a bargain.  Or he could have a really short career...

 

The reason Kwity Paye is ranked first at the position, is because he's the safest of the group.  Highest floor, and among the highest ceiling.  Unfortunately, he will probably be gone by our pick.

 

  last year #2 pick in the draft chase young ran 4.94 40 Rousseau ran a 4.68 at his pro day.  NOT slow

Edited April 30, 2021 by gordong

[ngbills]

3 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

All’s I can say is we’ve now invested significantly in Oliver, Epinesa and Reuasseau. We’d better start seeing some major production from our D Line in 2021. Sack City? 

Plus Addison, Butler, Star, Obada, Jefferson (gone)