Deep Dive into 3 First Round DE Prospects: Who should we pick?

[CaptnCoke11]

Highly doubt they draft an edge at 30.  Value just isn’t there.  Also there has never been a good DE drafted 25-32.  That alone scares me off. 

[IgotBILLStopay]

I was very dismissive of Oweh early - but am warming up to him after my semi deep dive. I don’t mind Oweh so much if Rousseau and Phillips are off the board. But I’d rather Beane was responsible for one of em being off the board.

Just now, CaptnCoke11 said:

Highly doubt they draft an edge at 30.  Value just isn’t there.  Also there has never been a good DE drafted 25-32.  That alone scares me off. 

TJ Watt my friend

[CaptnCoke11]

Just now, IgotBILLStopay said:

I was very dismissive of Oweh early - but am warming up to him after my semi deep dive. I don’t mind Oweh so much if Rousseau and Phillips are off the board. But I’d rather Beane was responsible for one of em being off the board.

TJ Watt my friend

He’s an OLB... Talking 4-3 ends 

[JaCrispy]

Joe Tryon?

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Why would you gamble on a player that has had multiple concussions and documented history of extended headache symptoms?

 

 

[whatdrought]

*whispers* “Payton Turner....”

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

7 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

*whispers* “Payton Turner....”

🤫Don't say it too loud. I don't want any gm's to hear. Hoping he makes it to round 3.

[Mat68]

2 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

HMMM... my understanding is that there has almost never been a DE taken as low as 30 whom has been an impact NFL player.    So I am saying pass on DE as the ones with any real promise will be gone by pick 30.   

 

and I am unwilling to move up and sacrifice picks.   McBeanes need to load the roster with cheap drafted talent bc when Josh's contract hits, lots of key guys will be on their way out, replaced by the guys drafted this week.   Is what it is.   

 

Trust the Process.  Drafting well and often is a big part of it. 

Jerry Hughes seemed to be a decent pro.

[Mat68]

43 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

He’s an OLB... Talking 4-3 ends 

No differance in our defense.  When PIT is in nickel Watts hand is on the ground.  Because he is athletic enough to cover doesnt mean you have to have him do it often.  Oweh all day imo.  Has the elite attributes for the position.  Phillips is the only pure pass rusher better imo.    

[whatdrought]

1 hour ago, Allen2Diggs said:

🤫Don't say it too loud. I don't want any gm's to hear. Hoping he makes it to round 3.

Nah, that ship sailed a couple months ago. The buzz on him is first round now. (For what that’s worth) 

 

[IgotBILLStopay]

yay!! 15.5 sacks - that too in one season doesnt just happen by accident! Trust the tape!!! Dont fall for a Mike Mamula!

[Alphadawg7]

17 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

yay!! 15.5 sacks - that too in one season doesnt just happen by accident! Trust the tape!!! Dont fall for a Mike Mamula!

Hey nice write up and nice call!  

[IgotBILLStopay]

 

[Artem Lipatov]

15 hours ago, Artem Lipatov said:

I vote for Rousseau beacause his surname sounds like Russian

I was right with 1st rounder ! And it’s 3rd draft in a row.🥳

I wanted Allen and Oliver before their drafts.  

[eball]

Well done OP!

[BigDingus]

15 hours ago, 4BillsintheBurgh said:

Rousseau's pro day did not help him - falling down after doing the vertical jump will do that. Looks to me like he prepared the week before.

 

 

 

The comments on that video say a lot. Two top comments are:

"is it me or does he just not look... explosive 😐"

and

"He’s about to fall crazy far"

But honestly, don't really care what they say. Him falling that far could be a blessing for us, so I'm all for it

[BigBuff423]

15 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree with all that. It is more a character thing. You haven't played for a year people are going to be looking at how you show up on your pro day you would want to come in the best shape possible, right? It was less how he performed and more how he looked. There were reports he was carrying extra weight and looked sluggish. That makes me think what is he going to do with NFL money in his pocket in the offseason? Will he stay in shape or will he Karlos Williams it? 

 

I would be pretty happy with him at #30, but that is a legit nagging doubt.

 

Interestingly enough during the presser Brandon Beane specifically mentioned how Rousseau up at his Pro Day putting on some weight, which he indicated as a positive. I'm not debating your perception or belief that he showed up in less-than-stellar physical shape, but it does appear Beane disagrees with you based on his post-Draft comments. 

[ChevyVanMiller]

18 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Pass rusher has been our number 1 need since the AFC championship game and McD said it himself - 

 

 

And we have basically punted during free agency since the elite pass rushers were too rich for us - we did get Obada, but how much of an impact he is going to have is to be seen (I am excited to see what he can do).

 

That means basically it is one of two positions that every observer from here to Timbuctoo expects the Bills to target in the draft (the other being CB 2). Josh Allen basically admitted as much when he said he expects the Bills to go defense heavy in the draft.

 

I have basically 3 Edge Rushers - Kwity Paye, Greg Rousseau and Jaelan Phillips in some detail (I also looked at Jayson Oweh and Azeez Ojulari is somewhat less detail) - and here are my pre-draft thoughts on their relative strengths and weaknesses. These 3 have been the consensus first rounders for over a year now. 

 

Kwity Paye appears to have the highest floor and I love his refugee story and he will be a pretty safe pick - but I have concerns about his ceiling. I think he is a slightly more powerful Shaq Lawson without any shoulder issues that derailed Lawson's rookie campaign. He gets in position for run blocks pretty well - but on the flip side he does get blocked easily despite being in position. He plays a lot lighter than his stated 261 lb weight. My biggest concern about him is that he gets faked too often (like Edmunds on his rookie campaign)- I think he will be a bit of a liability in the run game. He is an athletic freak and keeps fighting to win against the Olineman (so has a great motor). But he does not appear to have an overpowering first move trait that will lead to quick wins at the LOS. And you want a first rounder to not just hold his own but dominate at least once in a while. I usually pay more attention to 10 yard split timings than the 40 yard dash and he was a trifle slow at 1.66 secs. 

 

Here is one highlight video

 

 

Jaelan Phillips is another athletic freak. He has all the right measurables and had an outstanding 2020 campaign with 7 sacks in just 10 games. He has an explosive first step and a decent motor.  I thought speed was a weakness till he ran a 1.59 10 yard split on his pro-day. The only red flag is the medical history. He is young and I am not worried about his wrist injury - looks to have healed well. But concussions are another animal altogether. If it was serious enough for him to quit football (and come back ofc), I am worried. IF medical issues are not a concern - he is the clear no. 1 choice. But the concussion history is real. McD's familiarity with Manny Diaz will hopefully help in the Bills getting some insider info on the medicals - but no coach can ethically say anything bad about his player - so I dont know.

 

Here are his highlights! Drool away.

 

 

 

Greg Rousseau was a consensus top 10 (maybe top 5) pick after the 2019 season. And he has not played a game since then and more importantly has no injury concerns. You dont get 15.5 sacks in a P5 conference by accident folks. That too after becoming a starter only 5 games into the season. 

 

First - the guy is a legit 6'6" with an 83 inch wingspan - see how many times the offensive player thinks he has eluded Rousseau - but still gets run down. That is the wingspan showing - you cant acquire it. Dont get fooled by his slow 40 yard time - that is pretty useless for a D lineman. His 10 yard split was a scorching 1.57 secs. That tells you how quickly he can get off his blocks. And Rousseau has the best motor of all three guys. Several of his sacks are where he actually chases guys down. Let us see Mahomes try to run away from him. And dont knock him for opting out. It was the smart decision given the uncertainty of the college season at the time. He makes immediate money for his family, does not risk injury and still gets drafted early.

 

Coming to the reason the pundits (like PFF) are bailing on him 🙄. His pro day performance across the board - yes his 40 time was slow but that is a useless drill at his position. He bench pressed 21 times - and that is actually fantastic given his nearly 35 inch arms! He also has 11 inch hands to grab the QB and hold on. The broad jump and vertical jump are again completely useless for a Dlineman. The only drill that should cause concern is the 3-cone - which actually does speak to his bending and change of direction ability. He knocked the obstacle down on his first two tries and then was clocked a slow 7.5 on his third attempt. Anyone would be slow running a third time. Even if he is bad on that drill relative to his peers - the game tape doesnt lie. The guy has amazing bend. Apparently he did put on some weight in 2020 - but a summer of conditioning with the Bills staff and he will be in top shape come September. I am a bit old school - I think of every combine standout as Mike Mamula and rely more on game tape. He has the highest ceiling of the three. Take Montez Sweat and JPP and mix them up and you get Rousseau. What is there not to like? Dont believe the pundits on this one and seize the opportunity.

 

 

 

 Bottomline: My pick order would be 1. Greg Rousseau 2. Jaelan Phillips 3. Kwity Paye. If the Bills are convinced Phillips' medicals are not worrisome - I dont mind going 1. Phillips 2. Rousseau and 3. Paye. Phillips has the best burst and Rousseau the best motor. If I am worried about Brady / Brees like QBs who get rid of the ball early - I'd go Phillips. If I am worried about the Wilson / Mahomes / Allen / Lamar type, I go Rousseau. Or jsut wait till one is taken and trade up to take the other.   These two guys are elite talents who would likely have gone top 10 in a normal year.  It is time to shoot the moon folks! We have a decent line but, as McD observed, we need difference makers - not just decent players. And these two are difference makers - way more than Kwity Paye. The offensive draft strength (OLs,  QBs, WRs) in 2021 gives us a shot at one of these two (at least one should be there at 20+) and we should trade up to get him. 

Really enjoyed reading this this morning. It greatly helped me appreciate why the Bills coveted Rousseau. Thanks so much for your great research and opinion - good stuff!

[JMF2006]

17 hours ago, Artem Lipatov said:

I vote for Rousseau because his surname sounds like Russian

 

I think the French and Quebecois would be surprised that it sounds Russian  

[H2o]

18 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Pass rusher has been our number 1 need since the AFC championship game and McD said it himself - 

 

 

And we have basically punted during free agency since the elite pass rushers were too rich for us - we did get Obada, but how much of an impact he is going to have is to be seen (I am excited to see what he can do).

 

That means basically it is one of two positions that every observer from here to Timbuctoo expects the Bills to target in the draft (the other being CB 2). Josh Allen basically admitted as much when he said he expects the Bills to go defense heavy in the draft.

 

I have basically 3 Edge Rushers - Kwity Paye, Greg Rousseau and Jaelan Phillips in some detail (I also looked at Jayson Oweh and Azeez Ojulari is somewhat less detail) - and here are my pre-draft thoughts on their relative strengths and weaknesses. These 3 have been the consensus first rounders for over a year now. 

 

Kwity Paye appears to have the highest floor and I love his refugee story and he will be a pretty safe pick - but I have concerns about his ceiling. I think he is a slightly more powerful Shaq Lawson without any shoulder issues that derailed Lawson's rookie campaign. He gets in position for run blocks pretty well - but on the flip side he does get blocked easily despite being in position. He plays a lot lighter than his stated 261 lb weight. My biggest concern about him is that he gets faked too often (like Edmunds on his rookie campaign)- I think he will be a bit of a liability in the run game. He is an athletic freak and keeps fighting to win against the Olineman (so has a great motor). But he does not appear to have an overpowering first move trait that will lead to quick wins at the LOS. And you want a first rounder to not just hold his own but dominate at least once in a while. I usually pay more attention to 10 yard split timings than the 40 yard dash and he was a trifle slow at 1.66 secs. 

 

Here is one highlight video

 

 

Jaelan Phillips is another athletic freak. He has all the right measurables and had an outstanding 2020 campaign with 7 sacks in just 10 games. He has an explosive first step and a decent motor.  I thought speed was a weakness till he ran a 1.59 10 yard split on his pro-day. The only red flag is the medical history. He is young and I am not worried about his wrist injury - looks to have healed well. But concussions are another animal altogether. If it was serious enough for him to quit football (and come back ofc), I am worried. IF medical issues are not a concern - he is the clear no. 1 choice. But the concussion history is real. McD's familiarity with Manny Diaz will hopefully help in the Bills getting some insider info on the medicals - but no coach can ethically say anything bad about his player - so I dont know.

 

Here are his highlights! Drool away.

 

 

 

Greg Rousseau was a consensus top 10 (maybe top 5) pick after the 2019 season. And he has not played a game since then and more importantly has no injury concerns. You dont get 15.5 sacks in a P5 conference by accident folks. That too after becoming a starter only 5 games into the season. 

 

First - the guy is a legit 6'6" with an 83 inch wingspan - see how many times the offensive player thinks he has eluded Rousseau - but still gets run down. That is the wingspan showing - you cant acquire it. Dont get fooled by his slow 40 yard time - that is pretty useless for a D lineman. His 10 yard split was a scorching 1.57 secs. That tells you how quickly he can get off his blocks. And Rousseau has the best motor of all three guys. Several of his sacks are where he actually chases guys down. Let us see Mahomes try to run away from him. And dont knock him for opting out. It was the smart decision given the uncertainty of the college season at the time. He makes immediate money for his family, does not risk injury and still gets drafted early.

 

Coming to the reason the pundits (like PFF) are bailing on him 🙄. His pro day performance across the board - yes his 40 time was slow but that is a useless drill at his position. He bench pressed 21 times - and that is actually fantastic given his nearly 35 inch arms! He also has 11 inch hands to grab the QB and hold on. The broad jump and vertical jump are again completely useless for a Dlineman. The only drill that should cause concern is the 3-cone - which actually does speak to his bending and change of direction ability. He knocked the obstacle down on his first two tries and then was clocked a slow 7.5 on his third attempt. Anyone would be slow running a third time. Even if he is bad on that drill relative to his peers - the game tape doesnt lie. The guy has amazing bend. Apparently he did put on some weight in 2020 - but a summer of conditioning with the Bills staff and he will be in top shape come September. I am a bit old school - I think of every combine standout as Mike Mamula and rely more on game tape. He has the highest ceiling of the three. Take Montez Sweat and JPP and mix them up and you get Rousseau. What is there not to like? Dont believe the pundits on this one and seize the opportunity.

 

 

 

 Bottomline: My pick order would be 1. Greg Rousseau 2. Jaelan Phillips 3. Kwity Paye. If the Bills are convinced Phillips' medicals are not worrisome - I dont mind going 1. Phillips 2. Rousseau and 3. Paye. Phillips has the best burst and Rousseau the best motor. If I am worried about Brady / Brees like QBs who get rid of the ball early - I'd go Phillips. If I am worried about the Wilson / Mahomes / Allen / Lamar type, I go Rousseau. Or jsut wait till one is taken and trade up to take the other.   These two guys are elite talents who would likely have gone top 10 in a normal year.  It is time to shoot the moon folks! We have a decent line but, as McD observed, we need difference makers - not just decent players. And these two are difference makers - way more than Kwity Paye. The offensive draft strength (OLs,  QBs, WRs) in 2021 gives us a shot at one of these two (at least one should be there at 20+) and we should trade up to get him. 

Nice call my friend.