Bad Luck With Clemson High Draft Picks

[Irv]

Reading that the Bills are considering drafting Clemson RB Etienne.  I'm sitting here trying to remember if we've ever drafted a decent player from Clemson.  I can't think of any.  Not one.  Can you?   Lawson, Spiller, Watkins, even going all the way to Perry Tuttle.  All were high picks that did not work out.  Would like to see the jinx broken if we take this kid.  Based on the track record we're in trouble.    

[US Egg]

[Brennan Huff]

Smokescreen 

[fridge]

So I looked up a list of all-time Clemson NFL players to see just how bad it was. I was thinking there's no way that there hasn't been some greats on there. I was wrong.

 

It's bad. Like, real bad.

Edited April 29, 2021 by fridge

[ProcessYaDigg]

2 minutes ago, fridge said:

So I looked up a list of all-time Clemson NFL players to see just how bad it was. I e thinking there's no way that there hasn't been some greats on there. I was wrong.

 

It's bad. Like, real bad.

Maybe Jacksonville should reconsider their first overall selection

[Rico]

12 minutes ago, Irv said:

Reading that the Bills are considering drafting Clemson RB Etienne.  I'm sitting here trying to remember if we've ever drafted a decent player from Clemson.  I can't think of any.  Not one.  Can you?   Lawson, Spiller, Watkins, even going all the way to Perry Tuttle.  All were high picks that did not work out.  Would like to see the jinx broken if we take this kid.  Based on the track record we're in trouble.    

Jerry Butler, but I agree, just say NO to Clemson.

[billsfan89]

How have other teams high Clemson draft picks turned out in the NFL the past 10 years? Sammy wasn't a complete bust but he certainly didn't live up to his draft status, same thing with CJ and Shaq. All of them had their moments in the NFL but were not consistently great or even good players in the league. I don't know if I believe that you should avoid players from certain school intrinsically but you do have to wonder about possible patterns. 

[Buftex]

15 minutes ago, Irv said:

Reading that the Bills are considering drafting Clemson RB Etienne.  I'm sitting here trying to remember if we've ever drafted a decent player from Clemson.  I can't think of any.  Not one.  Can you?   Lawson, Spiller, Watkins, even going all the way to Perry Tuttle.  All were high picks that did not work out.  Would like to see the jinx broken if we take this kid.  Based on the track record we're in trouble.    

One of my all-time favorite Bills, Jerry Butler was from Clemson.

[Irv]

1 minute ago, Buftex said:

One of my all-time favorite Bills, Jerry Butler was from Clemson.

Yes - he was good.  After he retired, didn't own a bar on Bailey?

[BillsFanForever19]

Good thing we wouldn't be using a "high" draft pick. Our 1st is a glorified 2nd Rounder. Big difference between taking ETN at 30 when the team doesn't really have any holes and taking Spiller at 10 or Watkins at 4 when the team has huge needs.

Edited April 29, 2021 by BillsFanForever19

[Buftex]

11 minutes ago, Irv said:

Yes - he was good.  After he retired, didn't own a bar on Bailey?

Hmmm...not sure about that.  I remember he worked in the Bills front office in the 90's...then spent a lot of time in Cleveland as a WR coach, and then in their personnel department. I think he worked for the Broncos a bit after that. Wasn't aware of him owning any clubs.   

Edited April 29, 2021 by Buftex

[vtnatefootball11]

1 hour ago, billsfan89 said:

How have other teams high Clemson draft picks turned out in the NFL the past 10 years? Sammy wasn't a complete bust but he certainly didn't live up to his draft status, same thing with CJ and Shaq. All of them had their moments in the NFL but were not consistently great or even good players in the league. I don't know if I believe that you should avoid players from certain school intrinsically but you do have to wonder about possible patterns. 

 

Fair analysis.  I went to Clemson so I am not neutral in this, but even still I am reluctant for Clemson players to end up in Buffalo now in fear they don't work out and it ends up a being a double disappoint for me.  It's actually funny because among Clemson fans, nobody wants the top Clemson players to go to Buffalo.  They consider Buffalo the place where good Clemson players go to die!  Despite this, I would be beyond excited if the Bills were able to get Etienne at 30.  Watched him play every game the last 4 years, he is a threat every time he touches the ball, could put our offense over the top. 

 

Jury is still out on a lot of Clemson's high draft picks, as many were in the last 2-3 years.  You have to remember that they have been really good for 10 years or so but really just started recruiting and competing at an elite level in the last 5 years.  

 

A few names I haven't seen mentioned in this thread though; DeAndre Hopkins was a home run pick for Houston, so was Deshaun Watson prior to these shocking legal developments.  Dexter Lawrence and Christian Wilkins are doing well with NYG and Dolphins.  Tee Higgins looked great for the Bengals last year. Vick Beasley had his moments in the league. McKensie Alexander has been a solid corner for a 2nd rounder, started a number of years in Minnesota.  Jury is still out on first round picks AJ Terrell, Mike Williams, Isaiah Simmons, arguably Clelin Ferrel (although he was not worth the 4th pick in the draft).  I'm still missing quite a few.  There will be a lot more high round draft picks from Clemson in the next few years as well, particularly at QB, RB, WR and Dline.

 

Edited April 29, 2021 by vtnatefootball11

[YoloinOhio]

More helmet scouting! 

I wonder if Jacksonville is having 2nd thoughts about Trevor!

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, vtnatefootball11 said:

A few names I haven't seen mentioned in this thread though; DeAndre Hopkins was a home run pick for Houston, so was Deshaun Watson prior to these shocking legal developments.  Dexter Lawrence and Christian Wilkins are doing well with NYG and Dolphins.  Tee Higgins looked great for the Bengals last year. Vick Beasley had his moments in the league. McKensie Alexander has been a solid corner for a 2nd rounder, started a number of years in Minnesota.  Jury is still out on first round picks AJ Terrell, Mike Williams, Isaiah Simmons, arguably Clelin Ferrel (although he was not worth the 4th pick in the draft).  I'm still missing quite a few.  There will be a lot more high round draft picks from Clemson in the next few years as well, particularly at QB, RB, WR and Dline.

 

 

Yea their recent crops have been better. Hopkins has been a star, Watson (onfield) has been a star, Higgins was great as a rookie and looks to me like a star, Dexter Lawrence is a beast. Grady Jarrett has been one of the most underrated players in the league the last half decade. DJ Reader got a big FA pay day from Cincy las year too.... so they have had their share of hits in recent years. 

[dave mcbride]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea their recent crops have been better. Hopkins has been a star, Watson (onfield) has been a star, Higgins was great as a rookie and looks to me like a star, Dexter Lawrence is a beast. Grady Jarrett has been one of the most underrated players in the league the last half decade. DJ Reader got a big FA pay day from Cincy las year too.... so they have had their share of hits in recent years. 

And Sammy is at least pretty good and has flashed some greatness. He won't have a career that measures up to his draft status, but he's probably going to end up with 500 receptions provided he stays reasonably healthy.

1 hour ago, fridge said:

So I looked up a list of all-time Clemson NFL players to see just how bad it was. I was thinking there's no way that there hasn't been some greats on there. I was wrong.

 

It's bad. Like, real bad.

This has more info. Sort by AV and you'll see. Lots of good players. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/schools/clemson/index.htm

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

1 hour ago, fridge said:

So I looked up a list of all-time Clemson NFL players to see just how bad it was. I was thinking there's no way that there hasn't been some greats on there. I was wrong.

 

It's bad. Like, real bad.

its funny— I did the same thing about a week ago and was sort of shocked. I used to have a “don’t draft a U of Texas player” rule— now I may change it to Clemson. 

[dorquemada]

I'm not sure of the dynamic but I do feel like the guys from the biggest programs (Alabama/OSU/ND/Clemson/LSU) tend to get overdrafted because of the success of their programs.  Maybe because they get worked like rented mules while they're in school, maybe more than in lesser programs?   Maybe not.

 

Having said that, the draft really is a crapshoot.  If i wasnt so lazy, i'd do some work in SAS or SPSS and figure out if there's any statistical correlation between draft position and success.  My gut tells me that if there is a correlation, it's not real strong

 

edit:  ok maybe im not so lazy.  some undergrad did a paper

https://fisherpub.sjfc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1064&context=sport_undergrad

 

here's the conclusion, though it seems to be focused on offensive skill positions, i wouldn't be surprised if it applied teamwide:

 

Conclusion

Acknowledging that the sample for this research did not include every quarterback, running back, and wide receiver, the data may not accurately represent the NFL as a whole. However, the findings display evidence that individual offensive skill players that were drafted in the third through seventh round of the NFL draft do in fact have more successful careers than the individual skill players that were drafted in the first and second round. More specifically, this data illustrates that 60% of the third through seventh round running back and wide receiver sample have been more successful on the field than 40% of the same first and second round sample. With this information, NFL franchise front offices can re-evaluate their draft day selections and perhaps take more risks that could likely pay off in the future.

Edited April 29, 2021 by dorquemada
added study

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, Irv said:

Reading that the Bills are considering drafting Clemson RB Etienne.  I'm sitting here trying to remember if we've ever drafted a decent player from Clemson.  I can't think of any.  Not one.  Can you?   Lawson, Spiller, Watkins, even going all the way to Perry Tuttle.  All were high picks that did not work out.  Would like to see the jinx broken if we take this kid.  Based on the track record we're in trouble.    

You should edit this post and acknowledge Jerry Butler.

2 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

its funny— I did the same thing about a week ago and was sort of shocked. I used to have a “don’t draft a U of Texas player” rule— now I may change it to Clemson. 

There are a lot of good NFL players from Clemson. People forget guys like Trevor Pryce, but he was a great player. 

[streetkings01]

1 hour ago, fridge said:

So I looked up a list of all-time Clemson NFL players to see just how bad it was. I was thinking there's no way that there hasn't been some greats on there. I was wrong.

 

It's bad. Like, real bad.

I made a post years ago on Billszone about Clemson players sucking in the NFL......looks like they haven’t done much to change that outside of a few players like D. Hopkins, D. Watson and M. Williams. 

[billsfan89]

39 minutes ago, vtnatefootball11 said:

 

Fair analysis.  I went to Clemson so I am not neutral in this, but even still I am reluctant for Clemson players to end up in Buffalo now in fear they don't work out and it ends up a being a double disappoint for me.  It's actually funny because among Clemson fans, nobody wants the top Clemson players to go to Buffalo.  They consider Buffalo the place where good Clemson players go to die!  Despite this, I would be beyond excited if the Bills were able to get Etienne at 30.  Watched him play every game the last 4 years, he is a threat every time he touches the ball, could put our offense over the top. 

 

Jury is still out on a lot of Clemson's high draft picks, as many were in the last 2-3 years.  You have to remember that they have been really good for 10 years or so but really just started recruiting and competing at an elite level in the last 5 years.  

 

A few names I haven't seen mentioned in this thread though; DeAndre Hopkins was a home run pick for Houston, so was Deshaun Watson prior to these shocking legal developments.  Dexter Lawrence and Christian Wilkins are doing well with NYG and Dolphins.  Tee Higgins looked great for the Bengals last year. Vick Beasley had his moments in the league. McKensie Alexander has been a solid corner for a 2nd rounder, started a number of years in Minnesota.  Jury is still out on first round picks AJ Terrell, Mike Williams, Isaiah Simmons, arguably Clelin Ferrel (although he was not worth the 4th pick in the draft).  I'm still missing quite a few.  There will be a lot more high round draft picks from Clemson in the next few years as well, particularly at QB, RB, WR and Dline.

 

 

That recent list is definitely a very good list of players to come out. I didn't know Hopkins was a Clemson product and I forgot Watson was one too. Lawrence and Wilkins are also very good Pro-Bowl caliber players on that list. Thanks for the insight, not a huge college football fan myself so my draft knowledge tends to come from scouting reports and what people say on here which means I don't know ***** haha.