All Gunner's Draft Stuff.... 2021 Edition!!!

[GunnerBill]

Well folks, draft day is here.... how did come around so fast? It only seems like yesterday it was the first week of January and I started grinding taper on the corner group and the offensive tackles. I have done one of these composite threads the last two years as a way of bringing all my draft stuff together for the benefit of those interested in reading it and as a one stop shop archive that can be referred to when I get things right and wrong.... I am grateful to the mods for indulging me in that but hopefully people find the content interesting.  

 

Products that are already published on the board are:

 

2021 'big 5' Quarterback evaluations

2021 Draft Sleepers

Gunner's 2021 Mock Draft - My final version 3.0 will be published there later today. 

 

The "new content" in this thread will be:

• A full list of my 18 first round grades;
• An analysis of my top 100 (including comparisons to previous years);
• My positional top 5s.

 

[Key:

* denotes medical concern

^ denotes potential off-field / behavioural concern]

 

First Round Grades:

1. Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

2. Patrick Surtain, CB, Alabama

3. Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

4. Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

5. Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

6. Caleb Farley*, CB, Virginia Tech

7. Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU

8. Micah Parsons^, LB, Penn St

9. Jaylen Waddle*, WR, Alabama

10. Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota St

11. DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama

12. Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

13. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame

14. Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern

15. Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT, USC

16. Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

17. Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU

18. Greg Newsome, CB, Northwestern

 

I then also have four borderline 1st/2nd grades: 20. Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech; 21. Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama; 22. Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan; 23. Terrace Marshall, WR, LSU

 

Analysis of Top 100:

Here is the positional breakdown of my top 100:-

 

Quarterback: 5

Running Back: 5

Tight End: 4

Wide Receiver: 14

Offensive Tackle: 13

Interior Offensive Line: 8

Total offensive players: 49

 

Interior Defensive Line: 7

Edge Rusher: 13

Linebacker: 11

Corner: 11

Safety: 9

Total defensive players: 51

 

Comparison to other years:

 

Strengths and Weaknesses of the top 100:

Similar to last year my top 100 is pretty balanced 51:49 in favour of defense, whereas in 2020 it was the other way around. There are essentially three "deep" positions - Offensive Tackle, where it is not only deep but very top heavy talent wise with 11 of the 13 in my top that make the top 100 featuring in my top 60; Wide Receiver, which is less top heavy than last year but where the depth really kicks in around the third round and then pretty much continues throughout the draft - there will be guys drafted in rounds 6 and 7 at receiver that will be successful professionals - as ever the trick is correctly working out which ones; Edge, where there are no stand out elite level edge rushers that are slam dunk first round grade elite prospects but there is a bunch of guys who grade as round 2 or round 3 but will be pushed up the board by positional need - what that might mean at edge is that by the end of day 2, or early in day 3, the cupboard will be pretty bare at the position because the guys who could be intriguing developmental guys with traits are already off the board. I think it is a strong Quarterback class at the top too, and I expect the five names everyone is sick of hearing about all to be picked tonight. However, after that there is not much consensus on the next group and I would not be shocked if we go quite a long way into day 2 (towards the end of the third round) before QB6 comes off the board. Where is the class weak? I'm not a lover of the corner depth. I think after the top 4 guys there is Tyler Campbell and Kelvin Joseph and then a bunch of guys who will be valued highly in one scheme but less so in another, but the weakest spots are tight end (despite having the best Tight End I have ever evaluated at the top of the group), interior defensive line (really poor group), safety (after my top 2 they are ALL scheme specific fits) and, unusually, running back. Overall I think the first round talent in the class is kind of average.... not a vintage year but not a disaster either... but the depth of this draft is lacking. My 100th graded player has an early-mid 4th round grade. There are multiple years where my player 100 has been a full round earlier on my board. That is not surprising given that a lot of guys decided to take their extra year of eligibility and as has been reported there are just fewer guys in this class than some other years. 

 

 

Positional Top 5s:

(round I have them graded in parenthesis) 

 

Quarterback

1. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (1st)

2. Zach Wilson, BYU (1st)

3. Trey Lance, North Dakota St (1st)

4. Justin Fields, Ohio State (1st)

5. Mac Jones, Alabama (2nd)

 

Running Back

1. Travis Etienne, Clemson (2nd)

2. Najee Harris, Alabama (2nd)

3. Michael Carter, North Carolina (2nd)

4. Javonte Williams, North Carolina (2nd/3rd)

5. Kenneth Gainwell, Memphis (3rd)

 

Wide Receiver

1. Ja'Marr Chase, LSU (1st)

2. Jaylen Waddle*, Alabama (1st)

3. DeVonta Smith, Alabama (1st)

4. Terrace Marshall, LSU (1st/2nd)

5. Dyami Brown, North Carolina (2nd)

 

Tight End

1. Kyle Pitts, Florida (1st)

2. Pat Freiermuth, Penn State (2nd)

3. Tommy Tremble, Notre Dame (3rd)

4. Brevin Jordan, Miami (3rd/4th)

5. Hunter Long, Boston College (4th)

 

Offensive Tackle

1. Penei Sewell, Oregon (1st)

2. Rashawn Slater, Northwestern (1st)

3. Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC (1st)

4. Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech (1st/2nd)

5. Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame (2nd)

 

Interior Offensive Line

1. Alex Leatherwood, Alabama (2nd)

2. Landon Dickerson*, Alabama (2nd)

3. Wyatt Davis*, Ohio State (2nd)

4. Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma (2nd/3rd)

5. Quinn Meinerz, Wisconsin-Whitewater (3rd)

 

Interior Defensive Line

1. Christian Barmore, Alabama (1st/2nd)

2. Daviyon Nixon, Iowa (2nd)

3. Levi Onwuzurike, Washington (2nd)

4. Jay Tufele, USC (3rd)

5. Tyler Shelvin, LSU (3rd)

 

EDGE

1. Kwity Paye, Michigan (1st/2nd)

2. Jaelen Phillips*, Miami (2nd)

3. Gregory Rousseau, Miami (2nd)

4. Joseph Ossai, Texas (2nd)

5. Ronnie Perkins, Oklahoma (2nd)

 

Linebacker

1. Micah Parsons^, Penn State (1st)

2. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame (1st)

3. Zaven Collins, Tulsa (2nd)

4. Jamin Davis, Kentucky (2nd)

5. Nick Bolton, Missouri (2nd)

 

Corner

1. Patrick Surtain, Alabama (1st)

2. Caleb Farley*, Virginia Tech (1st)

3. Jaycee Horn, South Carolina (1st)

4. Greg Newsome, Northwestern (1st)

5. Tyson Campbell, Georgia (2nd)

 

Safety

1. Trevon Moehrig, TCU (1st)

2. Jevon Holland, Oregon (2nd)

3. Richie Grant, UCF (2nd)

4. Elijah Molden, Washington (3rd)

5. Ifeatu Melifonwu, Syracuse (3rd)

 

 

Final thoughts....

This will be one of the most interesting drafts of recent years. While for Bills fans used to seeing us on the clock early it will be strange to wait until right near the end of the night for Beane and co. to go on the clock there is plenty of intrigue in the first round ahead of us around where Quarterbacks go and how much teams are willing to give up to target specific guys at corner, offensive tackle and/or receiver.  However, days 2 and 3 promise to be even more fascinating because I suspect once you get past the first 50 or so guys in this class there is going to be very wide divergence on players and that could lead to a lot of small trades up and down and up again on Friday evening as teams try to match scheme and need with value. I'll be fascinated to see if teams are willing to give up day 3 picks to get more shots on day 2 given the relative lack of depth at the back end of the class and I will also be interested to see how many teams moving down in trades are demanding picks in 2022 as part of the compensation, expecting a more "normal" evaluating season in 2021 and a deeper class to select from in 2022. I am not a big future scouter - finding time to watch circa 150 players in this class is tough enough, but those that are tell me the story on 2022 is weak at Quarterback but really strong elsewhere. So that could well be attractive to teams thinking about trading back tonight and tomorrow. 

 

So keep an eye out for the final version of my mock later today, and enjoy the draft tonight. I will be doing my usual day by day debriefs as we go along this weekend. Just a few more hours to wait!!

Edited April 29, 2021 by GunnerBill

[ROCBillsBeliever]

Thanks for all the hard, thorough work, @GunnerBill! Here's to McBeane making some great picks.

[whorlnut]

Great job, OP!!!

[GunnerBill]

Thought I'd also stick this here rather than start a new thread... but Matt Miller (formerly of B/R and now running his own site plus doing some draft coverage for ESPN) has released his final 7 round mock... and for the Bills... I would not hate this at all!

 

#30 - Gregory Rousseau, Edge, Miami

#61 - Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue

#93 - Tay Gowan, CB, UCF

#161 - Michael Menet, C, Penn St

#174 - Kenny Yeboah, TE, Ole Miss

#213 - Javian Hawkins, Louisville

#236 - Garrett Wallow, LB, TCU

 

I think it is a tad early for Gowan and there were other corners there I'd prefer but don't hate it and I'm a bit "meh" on the two 5th rounders but think Hawkins and Wallow would be good 6th and 7th round value and the top two picks are high ceiling swing for the fences types. 

[Inigo Montoya]

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Well folks, draft day is here.... how did come around so fast? It only seems like yesterday it was the first week of January and I started grinding taper on the corner group and the offensive tackles. I have done one of these composite threads the last two years as a way of bringing all my draft stuff together for the benefit of those interested in reading it and as a one stop shop archive that can be referred to when I get things right and wrong.... I am grateful to the mods for indulging me in that but hopefully people find the content interesting.  

 

Products that are already published on the board are:

 

2021 'big 5' Quarterback evaluations

2021 Draft Sleepers

Gunner's 2021 Mock Draft - My final version 3.0 will be published there later today. 

 

The "new content" in this thread will be:

• A full list of my 18 first round grades;
• An analysis of my top 100 (including comparisons to previous years);
• My positional top 5s.

 

[Key:

* denotes medical concern

^ denotes potential off-field / behavioural concern]

 

First Round Grades:

1. Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

2. Patrick Surtain, CB, Alabama

3. Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

4. Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

5. Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

6. Caleb Farley*, CB, Virginia Tech

7. Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU

8. Micah Parsons^, LB, Penn St

9. Jaylen Waddle*, WR, Alabama

10. Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota St

11. DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama

12. Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

13. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame

14. Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern

15. Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT, USC

16. Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

17. Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU

18. Greg Newsome, CB, Northwestern

 

I then also have four borderline 1st/2nd grades: 20. Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech; 21. Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama; 22. Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan; 23. Terrace Marshall, WR, LSU

 

Analysis of Top 100:

Here is the positional breakdown of my top 100:-

 

Quarterback: 5

Running Back: 5

Tight End: 4

Wide Receiver: 14

Offensive Tackle: 13

Interior Offensive Line: 8

Total offensive players: 49

 

Interior Defensive Line: 7

Edge Rusher: 13

Linebacker: 11

Corner: 11

Safety: 9

Total defensive players: 51

 

Comparison to other years:

 

Strengths and Weaknesses of the top 100:

Similar to last year my top 100 is pretty balanced 51:49 in favour of defense, whereas in 2020 it was the other way around. There are essentially three "deep" positions - Offensive Tackle, where it is not only deep but very top heavy talent wise with 11 of the 13 in my top that make the top 100 featuring in my top 60; Wide Receiver, which is less top heavy than last year but where the depth really kicks in around the third round and then pretty much continues throughout the draft - there will be guys drafted in rounds 6 and 7 at receiver that will be successful professionals - as ever the trick is correctly working out which ones; Edge, where there are no stand out elite level edge rushers that are slam dunk first round grade elite prospects but there is a bunch of guys who grade as round 2 or round 3 but will be pushed up the board by positional need - what that might mean at edge is that by the end of day 2, or early in day 3, the cupboard will be pretty bare at the position because the guys who could be intriguing developmental guys with traits are already off the board. I think it is a strong Quarterback class at the top too, and I expect the five names everyone is sick of hearing about all to be picked tonight. However, after that there is not much consensus on the next group and I would not be shocked if we go quite a long way into day 2 (towards the end of the third round) before QB6 comes off the board. Where is the class weak? I'm not a lover of the corner depth. I think after the top 4 guys there is Tyler Campbell and Kelvin Joseph and then a bunch of guys who will be valued highly in one scheme but less so in another, but the weakest spots are tight end (despite having the best Tight End I have ever evaluated at the top of the group), interior defensive line (really poor group), safety (after my top 2 they are ALL scheme specific fits) and, unusually, running back. Overall I think the first round talent in the class is kind of average.... not a vintage year but not a disaster either... but the depth of this draft is lacking. My 100th graded player has an early-mid 4th round grade. There are multiple years where my player 100 has been a full round earlier on my board. That is not surprising given that a lot of guys decided to take their extra year of eligibility and as has been reported there are just fewer guys in this class than some other years. 

 

 

Positional Top 5s:

(round I have them graded in parenthesis) 

 

Quarterback

1. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (1st)

2. Zach Wilson, BYU (1st)

3. Trey Lance, North Dakota St (1st)

4. Justin Fields, Ohio State (1st)

5. Mac Jones, Alabama (2nd)

 

Running Back

1. Travis Etienne, Clemson (2nd)

2. Najee Harris, Alabama (2nd)

3. Michael Carter, North Carolina (2nd)

4. Javonte Williams, North Carolina (2nd/3rd)

5. Kenneth Gainwell, Memphis (3rd)

 

Wide Receiver

1. Ja'Marr Chase, LSU (1st)

2. Jaylen Waddle*, Alabama (1st)

3. DeVonta Smith, Alabama (1st)

4. Terrace Marshall, LSU (1st/2nd)

5. Dyami Brown, North Carolina (2nd)

 

Tight End

1. Kyle Pitts, Florida (1st)

2. Pat Freiermuth, Penn State (2nd)

3. Tommy Tremble, Notre Dame (3rd)

4. Brevin Jordan, Miami (3rd/4th)

5. Hunter Long, Boston College (4th)

 

Offensive Tackle

1. Penei Sewell, Oregon (1st)

2. Rashawn Slater, Northwestern (1st)

3. Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC (1st)

4. Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech (1st/2nd)

5. Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame (2nd)

 

Interior Offensive Line

1. Alex Leatherwood, Alabama (2nd)

2. Landon Dickerson*, Alabama (2nd)

3. Wyatt Davis*, Ohio State (2nd)

4. Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma (2nd/3rd)

5. Quinn Meinerz, Wisconsin-Whitewater (3rd)

 

Interior Defensive Line

1. Christian Barmore, Alabama (1st/2nd)

2. Daviyon Nixon, Iowa (2nd)

3. Levi Onwuzurike, Washington (2nd)

4. Jay Tufele, USC (3rd)

5. Tyler Shelvin, LSU (3rd)

 

EDGE

1. Kwity Paye, Michigan (1st/2nd)

2. Jaelen Phillips*, Miami (2nd)

3. Gregory Rousseau, Miami (2nd)

4. Joseph Ossai, Texas (2nd)

5. Ronnie Perkins, Oklahoma (2nd)

 

Linebacker

1. Micah Parsons^, Penn State (1st)

2. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame (1st)

3. Zaven Collins, Tulsa (2nd)

4. Jamin Davis, Kentucky (2nd)

5. Nick Bolton, Missouri (2nd)

 

Corner

1. Patrick Surtain, Alabama (1st)

2. Caleb Farley*, Virginia Tech (1st)

3. Jaycee Horn, South Carolina (1st)

4. Greg Newsome, Northwestern (1st)

5. Tyler Campbell, Georgia (2nd)

 

Safety

1. Trevon Moehrig, TCU (1st)

2. Jevon Holland, Oregon (2nd)

3. Richie Grant, UCF (2nd)

4. Elijah Molden, Washington (3rd)

5. Ifeatu Melifonwu, Syracuse (3rd)

 

 

Final thoughts....

This will be one of the most interesting drafts of recent years. While for Bills fans used to seeing us on the clock early it will be strange to wait until right near the end of the night for Beane and co. to go on the clock there is plenty of intrigue in the first round ahead of us around where Quarterbacks go and how much teams are willing to give up to target specific guys at corner, offensive tackle and/or receiver.  However, days 2 and 3 promise to be even more fascinating because I suspect once you get past the first 50 or so guys in this class there is going to be very wide divergence on players and that could lead to a lot of small trades up and down and up again on Friday evening as teams try to match scheme and need with value. I'll be fascinated to see if teams are willing to give up day 3 picks to get more shots on day 2 given the relative lack of depth at the back end of the class and I will also be interested to see how many teams moving down in trades are demanding picks in 2022 as part of the compensation, expecting a more "normal" evaluating season in 2021 and a deeper class to select from in 2022. I am not a big future scouter - finding time to watch circa 150 players in this class is tough enough, but those that are tell me the story on 2022 is weak at Quarterback but really strong elsewhere. So that could well be attractive to teams thinking about trading back tonight and tomorrow. 

 

So keep an eye out for the final version of my mock later today, and enjoy the draft tonight. I will be doing my usual day by day debriefs as we go along this weekend. Just a few more hours to wait!!

 

 

Thanks for all your work on this stuff, I'm not a college football fan so I appreciate all the info.  Are you going to stay up tonight to watch live, or just catch up in the morning?

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

 

Thanks for all your work on this stuff, I'm not a college football fan so I appreciate all the info.  Are you going to stay up tonight to watch live, or just catch up in the morning?

 

Oh no, I will be up to the bitter end this evening. I will watch every single minute over the weekend. Yes, I am a geek. Today and tomorrow go in the work leave diary as soon as draft dates are confirmed. 

[AmishRifle]

Thank you @GunnerBill

[RobbRiddick]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 I started grinding taper

I hope you got Taper's permission first

[GunnerBill]

Just now, RobbRiddick said:

I hope you got Taper's permission first

 

I'm all about consent! 😛

[RobbRiddick]

Seriously, this is great stuff. My usual draft tradition from the second round on is to wonder who the player is, look on Youtube and make a lightening judgment passed off of what I see. So it's good to see potential names to look out for

[BuffaloBill]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Thought I'd also stick this here rather than start a new thread... but Matt Miller (formerly of B/R and now running his own site plus doing some draft coverage for ESPN) has released his final 7 round mock... and for the Bills... I would not hate this at all!

 

#30 - Gregory Rousseau, Edge, Miami

#61 - Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue

#93 - Tay Gowan, CB, UCF

#161 - Michael Menet, C, Penn St

#174 - Kenny Yeboah, TE, Ole Miss

#213 - Javian Hawkins, Louisville

#236 - Garrett Wallow, LB, TCU

 

I think it is a tad early for Gowan and there were other corners there I'd prefer but don't hate it and I'm a bit "meh" on the two 5th rounders but think Hawkins and Wallow would be good 6th and 7th round value and the top two picks are high ceiling swing for the fences types. 

 

 

That would be an outstanding draft IMO. Now, given my opinion is worthless to Beane I am curious to see what the Bills do.

[Jeff1954]

Thanks very much. I have really enjoyed reading and researching your contributions.

[Paul Costa]

Good work!! Thanks 😊 

[SoCal Deek]

Thanks Gunner

i did a really quick count and it looks like you only have 22 or so players with first round grade. First, is that correct? And second, is that unusual? 

[machine gun kelly]

GB, you need a vacation day after this weekend to get a pint, and binge watch James Bond.

 

Thanks for all the info mate.

[jletha]

Interesting Oweh doesnt veen crack the top 5 edge rushers, Ive seen him mocked to us a few times. He is a very polarizing player it seems.

Edited April 29, 2021 by jletha

[TheBeaneBandit]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Thought I'd also stick this here rather than start a new thread... but Matt Miller (formerly of B/R and now running his own site plus doing some draft coverage for ESPN) has released his final 7 round mock... and for the Bills... I would not hate this at all!

 

#30 - Gregory Rousseau, Edge, Miami

#61 - Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue

#93 - Tay Gowan, CB, UCF

#161 - Michael Menet, C, Penn St

#174 - Kenny Yeboah, TE, Ole Miss

#213 - Javian Hawkins, Louisville

#236 - Garrett Wallow, LB, TCU

 

I think it is a tad early for Gowan and there were other corners there I'd prefer but don't hate it and I'm a bit "meh" on the two 5th rounders but think Hawkins and Wallow would be good 6th and 7th round value and the top two picks are high ceiling swing for the fences types. 

Agree that dude's first 2 picks especially would be knock outs👍. Also, once again to you: phenomenal job as always!!! 

[billybrew1]

The Bills need a WR in the top three picks, I would imagine that by the fifth, we're only talking about playershat cant really scare opponents.

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, billybrew1 said:

The Bills need a WR in the top three picks, I would imagine that by the fifth, we're only talking about playershat cant really scare opponents.

 

I do think through the entire 7 rounds it is the deepest group. They could find another Gabe Davis later. That said, clearly the lower you go the harder to find difference makers. 

1 hour ago, machine gun kelly said:

GB, you need a vacation day after this weekend to get a pint, and binge watch James Bond.

 

Thanks for all the info mate.

 

We have a public holiday on Monday. Couldn't have been timed any better this year! 

[machine gun kelly]

Shaken not stirred brother.

 My favorite guy in movies.  Been ticked they’ve put off his final one for a year and a half.