Ben Allbright’s annual mock draft has Bills taking Etienne at 30. He’s been right about where Bills are looking several years running.

[BADOLBILZ]

7 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I like him as the #42 overall pick.

 

 

I think you gotta' give Najee even more carries to get the value out of him.    Then you gotta' figure out how to do that and keep him fresh for 17 regular season and 3-4 playoff games.   Drafting a RB that early is like paying a baseball closer $25M-$35M like an ace........it makes no sense........you need a bunch of them to get thru most games and you don't want to have to change everything you do when you end up with your practice squad RB on the field.     Depth.......not a guy who needs 250 touches( which is just 14-15 per game over 17) to justify his selection.

[dave mcbride]

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I think you gotta' give Najee even more carries to get the value out of him.    Then you gotta' figure out how to do that and keep him fresh for 17 regular season and 3-4 playoff games.   Drafting a RB that early is like paying a baseball closer $25M-$35M like an ace........it makes no sense........you need a bunch of them to get thru most games and you don't want to have to change everything you do when you end up with your practice squad RB on the field.     Depth.......not a guy who needs 250 touches( which is just 14-15 per game over 17) to justify his selection.

I think mid-second rounder for a bell cow RB is fair. I mean, Bell and Shady were mid-second rounders who earned their slot. Derrick Henry too. None have won SBs except for Shady, who now has two rings for different teams :). They are high WAR players for the RB position, and the reason they don't have rings isn't because their teams spent picks that were too high on them.

[mjdotson]

15 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The difference between a great producing RB and a below average one is less than yard.    I know you are exaggerating for effect but it brings up a good point....... there isn't much difference between the per snap production of average and great RB play.    For comparison purposes......Julio Jones can catch 100 passes and produce 400-500 yards more than Jarvis Landry in his 100 grabs.    And those receivers are both GOOD.    At RB the spread on the same 100 touches(rushing or receiving) between a stud RB and a mediocre one is just 50-150 yards.   

Sure, if you’re applying analytics to evaluate players’ worth, but there is a significant difference in value in having a gamechanging RB like Henry and an average back like the guys we have.  There’s also a big difference in the culture with the players who come out of Bama and places like Clemson, where they tend to be softer snd letdown in the NFL, especially at the skill positions.  Harris is a generational back with elite size, strength and explosiveness, whereas ETN is a smaller guy in the mold of what we already have on the roster.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I think mid-second rounder for a bell cow RB is fair. I mean, Bell and Shady were mid-second rounders who earned their slot. Derrick Henry too. None have won SBs except for Shady, who now has two rings for different teams :). They are high WAR players for the RB position, and the reason they don't have rings isn't because their teams spent picks that were too high on them.

 

Derrick Henry is a bad example.......much greater talent than Najee that you never see at RB anymore.......that's a pass rushers body......but also a guy you have to build your offense around.

 

Bell is more of a fit for an offense like the Bills.

 

But people might be surprised to know that both Henry and Bell each have only produced 3 really good seasons so far.   And I'd rather split up carries than give the ball to LeV Bell 400 times for a mediocre 4 ypc.

 

[Rochesterfan]

2 hours ago, Logic said:

He WAS on Buffalo liking Allen, months before anyone else.

He had us with Wilkins because he had Oliver getting drafted before we picked in his mock, but he always said IDL. Last year, he said the Bills were doing the most work on 1st round WRs. Then they traded for Diggs. They probably WERE doing a ton of work on 1st round receivers, and said work let them to conclude that trading for Diggs would be the better option. Doesn't mean Allbright was wrong about them scouting WRs heavily before making the trade.

Again, I'm not saying he's Jimmy the Greek, but I don't understand why it's so hard to believe that a national NFL beat reporter might have some NFL connections that let him know where teams might be leaning in the draft. It's not that outrageous. 

Bingo. That's it right there. Etienne DID take advantage of the defenses being spread out to  handle all of Clemson's offensive talent.

If Beane drafts him, it's because he thinks opposing defenses will be spread out to stop all of Buffalo's talent, too, and he can feast on the open space underneath in the same way that he did at Clemson.

Beane drafting Etienne, to me, would mean he foresees defenses just absolutely selling out to stop Allen and the pass next year, and he wants to make sure that his offense can take advantage of that and forces defenses to be more honest. It would mean he doesn't trust Moss and Singletary to keep defenses honest or to make them pay when they sell out to stop the pass.

 

I don’t doubt he has some connection - especially in the Denver camp, but he just has not been right about Buffalo.  I would of love to see what happened if Oliver wasn’t there - I don’t think there was any way Wilkins was the choice - if Oliver had gone to Detroit.  I think he was flat out played by guys feeding him false info.  
 

The Allen pick - there was lots of talk on the board about Allen for 2 months leading up to the draft.  It was debated over and over.  I give him credit for sticking to his guns and I believe he got some info from Denver about the pick.

 

The Oliver selection was a draft with a ton of DLine  5 of the top 9 picks were along the DLine and 10 of the top 20 picks.  Fully half of the top 20 picks were DLine.  It was not a shock that the Bills were looking DL.  Again on the board it was debated which guy drops - was it going to be Williams, Allen, or Oliver with the pick.  The big question was if Detroit went DL would we draft the TE instead.

 

Last year did he really step out on a limb - the top receiver class ever and he says we are in on a receiver - He was not in the know on the Diggs trade as that was broken nationally.  That also occurred over a month before the draft.  The guy we actually drafted later - he totally whiffed on.

 

My point is maybe he knows, but based upon his history - he has no more knowledge than ICB used to have.  Beane tends to set his team up over a year in advance with an eye on what positions have a ton of value.  I am expecting the Bills to continue that trend and draft a CB as that is a deep and talented position.  We will see as mine is just a guess based on what we have seen in history, but based upon what Beane has said and done - I just don’t think ETN is the pick.  
 

CB/DB is the one position he has not signed anyone at, it is a deep and talented position with likely a few guys dropping, it is a position that we are set for starters - so the pick can be more long term, a guy like Newsome has elite speed to match up with KC, it all just matches and works how they have operated - draft youth on D early - (CB, LB, DT, DE - top picks over last 4 years) now it falls back to CB again.

[dave mcbride]

4 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Derrick Henry is a bad example.......much greater talent than Najee that you never see at RB anymore.......that's a pass rushers body......but also a guy you have to build your offense around.

 

Bell is more of a fit for an offense like the Bills.

 

But people might be surprised to know that both Henry and Bell each have only produced 3 really good seasons so far.   And I'd rather split up carries than give the ball to LeV Bell 400 times for a mediocre 4 ypc.

 

Bell has always been about the elite receiving skills.  And don't just look at the ypc - look at the yards per target. If he's getting 8-10 yards per catch and catching it an 80 percent rate, that's as good as a WR getting a 12 ypc average at a 65 percent rate. He had 8.1 yards per target in his awesome second season, and pretty much always above 6 -- which is valuable for a high target (80 receptions) guy.  Bell is an odd bird in any case -- he was set up to have multiple great seasons Pitt but is as dumb as a box of rocks. Problem of the profession.

Edited April 29, 2021 by dave mcbride

[BADOLBILZ]

12 minutes ago, mjdotson said:

Sure, if you’re applying analytics to evaluate players’ worth, but there is a significant difference in value in having a gamechanging RB like Henry and an average back like the guys we have.  There’s also a big difference in the culture with the players who come out of Bama and places like Clemson, where they tend to be softer snd letdown in the NFL, especially at the skill positions.  Harris is a generational back with elite size, strength and explosiveness, whereas ETN is a smaller guy in the mold of what we already have on the roster.

 

1) Yardage isn't analytics or an advanced stat.  

 

2) What is the "significant difference"?   

 

3) Dareus(Bama) and Watkins(Clemson) were stars on some great teams in college but bad culture guys in the pros.    Where Najee played isn't really important. 

[BADOLBILZ]

8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Bell has always been about the elite receiving skills.  And don't just look at the ypc - look at the yards per target. If he's getting 8-10 yards per catch and catching it an 80 percent rate, that's as good as a WR getting a 12 ypc average at a 65 percent rate. Bell is an odd bird in any case -- he was set up to have multiple great seasons Pitt but is as dumb as a box of rocks. Problem of the profession.

 

Bell was overrated.

 

His prime ended at 25.   He was just a RB.   Played behind a GREAT OL in Pitt in his very brief prime that played to his unique running style.   He had lost his juice by his last season in Pitt.......hence the big drop in ypc. 

 

By comparison, Harris isn't even a great fit as a runner in the Bills outside zone.   Etienne is a much better fit as a runner........but then he isn't even a decent pass blocker and doesn't have the body to be expected to be.    Neither of these guys are even that ideal for what the Bills do.

Edited April 29, 2021 by BADOLBILZ

[dave mcbride]

5 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Bell was overrated.

 

His prime ended at 25.   He was just a RB.   Played behind a GREAT OL in Pitt in his very brief prime that played to his unique running style.    

 

By comparison, Harris isn't even a great fit as a runner in the Bills outside zone.   Etienne is a much better fit as a runner........but then he isn't even a decent pass blocker and doesn't have the body to be expected to be.    Neither of these guys are even that ideal for what the Bills do.

I totally disagree. He is in my opinion the best route runner as a RB since Marshall Faulk. He actually showed those skills in the first bills game this past season but was yanked into a hamstring injury by AJ Klein (which saved a TD). He is the best wheel route runner I've seen since Thurman. But as I said, dumb as a box of rocks.

 

Also, you appear to be fixated on ypc. Focus on ypt. There was hardly a huge drop in his final year there, and 6.2 probably led all RBs (although I'd need to look it up).

Edited April 29, 2021 by dave mcbride

[Rochesterfan]

15 minutes ago, mjdotson said:

Sure, if you’re applying analytics to evaluate players’ worth, but there is a significant difference in value in having a gamechanging RB like Henry and an average back like the guys we have.  There’s also a big difference in the culture with the players who come out of Bama and places like Clemson, where they tend to be softer snd letdown in the NFL, especially at the skill positions.  Harris is a generational back with elite size, strength and explosiveness, whereas ETN is a smaller guy in the mold of what we already have on the roster.

 

 I just don’t think Harris is a generational back - he is more Josh Jacobs, Sony Michel, Damien Harris, line of backs.  Good players but nothing special - I just don’t think he has the speed to be elite.  I think he could be good, but he will need a ton of touches to get into huge pack of JAGS between 800 - 1000 yards.

[FieldGeneral]

So we're not going to address the glaring need for a pass rush? Cool. 

[YoloinOhio]

3 minutes ago, FieldGeneral said:

So we're not going to address the glaring need for a pass rush? Cool. 

It’s a *mock* draft. 

[BADOLBILZ]

9 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I totally disagree. He is in my opinion the best route runner as a RB since Marshall Faulk. He actually showed those skills in the first bills game this past season but was yanked into a hamstring injury by AJ Klein (which saved a TD). He is the best wheel route runner I've seen since Thurman. But as I said, dumb as a box of rocks.

 

Also, you appear to be fixated on ypc. Focus on ypt. There was hardly a huge drop in his final year there, and 6.2 probably led all RBs (although I'd need to look it up).

 

 

Nah, c'mon.  Bell had a measly 4.8 yards per touch that year.

 

 

 

[YoloinOhio]

Let me know when Maddy Glab drops her final mock. The rest is just noise. 
 

[Locomark]

12 hours ago, Logic said:

Benjamin Allbright only posts one mock draft each year. He posts it the day before the draft.

 

**Edit: He has known which direction the Bills were leaning several years running (not last year, as they had no 1st round pick). He sometimes knows the specific player they like, but usually at least knows the position they most want to pick in round 1. From what I have experienced in the past few years, he seems to have legitimate league sources.

 

This year, he said over a month ago that they were looking running back and has stuck to his guns ever since. Lo and behold, in his mock, he has them taking Etienne even with Newsome and Barmore still on the board.

 

I’m posting this only because Allbright seems to have legit league sources, particularly one with the Bills, and he’s way more accurate/trustworthy than most. 

 

Take from it what you will.

 

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2021-nfl-mock-draft-1-round-albright/

 

Sorry but no way would we have telegraphed this pick 2 days before the draft. My take? We think he is overrated, so we want the Jets to take him so we can exploit his weaknesses. Harris is a better back IMO. Etienne is Reggie Bush. 

[maryland-bills-fan]

11 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

The counter punch wasn’t there more so due to blocking.... the Bills OL got manhandled upfront..... not sure how a RB helps there....

Let me explain- it is really quite simple. If the defence is agressively going after the QB, then they are not filling all the running gaps NOR are they defending against the very short passes that are literally 2 yards behind the defensive line players.(who are leaning the wrong way).  TT was great at starting by blocking a DL and then sneaking out behind him to catch a 2 yard pass, for at least a 7-12 yard gain- and very often a big chunk of yards.   Somehow this does not work with Singletary and Moss but should work with Etinate.

12 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I just don’t think that Etienne is “special”.  Good RB prospect with some pass catching skills and has some speed, but is a high-mileage draftee.  I think he is fast, but not “extremely fast”.  40 time from these pro days are suspect - hand timed and variable surfaces.  I would guess you should add about .1 seconds to all of these reported time to compare with what comes out of the Indy combine each year.

 

If you add .1 to Etienne’s pro day time it is about 4.5.  If he ran 4.5 at Indy in a normal year, we are not talking about a top round prospect and that is how I see him.

Where did you get your information that Etienne's reported 40 speed is a fraud?   Are all 40 times a fraud this year as well? Why not add 0.2 seconds to his time to really make your point?  Somehow the college game film has also been altered to show him faster than defenders or maybe Clemson only scheduled teams with slow players?

[Metal Man]

Serious question...

 

Can Etienne make positive yardage behind bad run blocking?

 

I watched zero Clemson football games so I have no idea if his production is more along the lines of an Emmitt Smith who had holes so big he was rarely touched before the second level, or more like Barry Sanders who more often than not had to find ways to make yardage with very little blocking.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

question is, will they run him until he pukes?

 

I was all for harris but etienne may turn out to be the better of the two backs?

Edited April 29, 2021 by A Firm Tree Does Not Fear

[Governor]

Have we all kicked this around and convinced ourselves that ETN would be a great pick? I’m still not feeling it. I hope the board gets shaken up and someone better falls and we ditch this idea.

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Let me explain- it is really quite simple. If the defence is agressively going after the QB, then they are not filling all the running gaps NOR are they defending against the very short passes that are literally 2 yards behind the defensive line players.(who are leaning the wrong way).  TT was great at starting by blocking a DL and then sneaking out behind him to catch a 2 yard pass, for at least a 7-12 yard gain- and very often a big chunk of yards.   Somehow this does not work with Singletary and Moss but should work with Etinate.

Where did you get your information that Etienne's reported 40 speed is a fraud?   Are all 40 times a fraud this year as well? Why not add 0.2 seconds to his time to really make your point?  Somehow the college game film has also been altered to show him faster than defenders or maybe Clemson only scheduled teams with slow players?

Yes, I think they are all “home field” times - not just Etiennes.  Indy has a reportedly “slower” surface, but at least same surface for everyone so comparisons are possible.  Likewise, Indy is set up with electronic timing so that everyone is getting same treatment.  I believe that these pro days are mostly hand timed which certainly introduces variability into the timings.