Ben Allbright’s annual mock draft has Bills taking Etienne at 30. He’s been right about where Bills are looking several years running.

[Reed83HOF]

32 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

The counter punch wasn’t there more so due to blocking.... the Bills OL got manhandled upfront..... not sure how a RB helps there....

The OL was not great I will give you that, but the talent (athleticism & skill) at the RB position is still not good enough

[Mr. WEO]

Hmmm...this could only lead to one conclusion:

 

 

Time to start an Etienne at 30 "poll" thread!!  (it would be different....because it has a poll!)

[Augie]

2 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Hmmm...this could only lead to one conclusion:

 

 

Time to start an Etienne at 30 "poll" thread!!  (it would be different....because it has a poll!)

 

I think it would be appropriate to have one thread with a public poll where we can see how everyone voted, and another private poll, for those who prefer some anonymity. Seem fair?   

[Reed83HOF]

Just now, OldTimer1960 said:

My main worry is that he is likely only a short-term producer before he breaks down and I would hope to find someone at a more important position who can be here for longer than that.

You could almost say that about any player in any position...

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/mileage-matters-the-value-of-rb-wear-tear

 

the top backs in the NFL are guys who came from heavy carry loads due to how good they were early on in their college careers.

 

David Johnson - 866

Kareem Hunt - 782

Ezekiel Elliott - 592

Todd Gurley - 510

Saquon Barkley - 671

Le'Veon Bell - 671

Melvin Gordon - 631

Nick Chubb - 758

Alex Collins - 665

James Connor - 668

Jay Ajayi - 678

Christian McCaffrey - 632

Dalvin Cook - 687

Aaron Jones - 658

Jordan Howard - 647

Kerryon Johnson - 519

Leonard Fournette - 616

Marlon Mack - 586

Derrick Henry - 602

Phillip Lindsay - 765

 

Honestly, from that list, which is basically most of the top rushers in the NFL, the only ones who you could hang your hat on with mileage being a concern are Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook, but Fournette's chronic injures problems were well documented before he was drafted, and Cook's injury was a random ACL injury. As for the rest, usage is a good indicator of future success, not future injury.

 

In the under 300 club, Alvin Kamara (210), Chris Carson (213), Damien Williams (290), Peyton Barber (248) Kenyan Drake (233),  and Nyheim Hines (258) are the ones who lead the way, but as you can see, those who had under 300 carries in college are far outnumbered by those who had over 500 carries when it comes to significant roles in the NFL.

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, Logic said:

This is one thing I've thought about quite a bit since the "ETN to the Bills" rumor started:

The Bills lined up in 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) empty formations A TON in 2021. Because the HB split out wide was Moss or Singletary, though, they were basically a non-factor in most pass plays that followed. Imagine being able to come out in 11 and 10 personnel empty sets, as they seem to love to do, but actually having that HB split out wide be a legitimate threat, a legitimately useful part of the play. They could essentially come out in 10 or 11 personnel on every play and then, based on the defensive personnel, either line up in more of a pro set to attack a light defense or an empty set to attack a base defense.

TL;DR: a player like Etienne could greatly increase the potency of the Bills passing game in addition to its run game. Specifically, it can increase the lethality of the Bills' much-loved empty sets.

 

 

5 wide is a a punchless, dink-and-dunk alignment.    The minute the backfield empties,  the defensive responsibilities get simplified and the defensive line can just attack the QB......necessitating a quick pass......and thereby all but eliminating the chance of a big play.    Despite decades of seeing this,  some fans still think that going 5 wide is opening things up.   It's just a chain mover.    You don't need to draft someone in the first round to get a favorable matchup on routes that are only going to go 5-8 yards.   

 

Etienne's value as a receiver is coming out of the backfield on screens and wheel routes.    Again, 2-3 of those per game is about all of those you want to run when you have a QB who can stretch the field like Allen.  

[Reed83HOF]

 

[BADOLBILZ]

14 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

You could almost say that about any player in any position...

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/mileage-matters-the-value-of-rb-wear-tear

 

the top backs in the NFL are guys who came from heavy carry loads due to how good they were early on in their college careers.

 

David Johnson - 866

Kareem Hunt - 782

Ezekiel Elliott - 592

Todd Gurley - 510

Saquon Barkley - 671

Le'Veon Bell - 671

Melvin Gordon - 631

Nick Chubb - 758

Alex Collins - 665

James Connor - 668

Jay Ajayi - 678

Christian McCaffrey - 632

Dalvin Cook - 687

Aaron Jones - 658

Jordan Howard - 647

Kerryon Johnson - 519

Leonard Fournette - 616

Marlon Mack - 586

Derrick Henry - 602

Phillip Lindsay - 765

 

Honestly, from that list, which is basically most of the top rushers in the NFL, the only ones who you could hang your hat on with mileage being a concern are Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook, but Fournette's chronic injures problems were well documented before he was drafted, and Cook's injury was a random ACL injury. As for the rest, usage is a good indicator of future success, not future injury.

 

In the under 300 club, Alvin Kamara (210), Chris Carson (213), Damien Williams (290), Peyton Barber (248) Kenyan Drake (233),  and Nyheim Hines (258) are the ones who lead the way, but as you can see, those who had under 300 carries in college are far outnumbered by those who had over 500 carries when it comes to significant roles in the NFL.

 

 

Are you using THAT list to SUPPORT the notion that Etienne having a ton of mileage (820 touches counting KOR's) isn't significant?    That's actually a pretty damning list against taking such a high mileage running back.

[Mr. WEO]

35 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

I think it would be appropriate to have one thread with a public poll where we can see how everyone voted, and another private poll, for those who prefer some anonymity. Seem fair?   

That doesn’t sound like enough threads though.

 

I would add one where a guy in my building who gets lots of things right (I think) says he thinks the Bills take Etienne at 30...

[Reed83HOF]

20 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Are you using THAT list to SUPPORT the notion that Etienne having a ton of mileage (820 touches counting KOR's) isn't significant?    That's actually a pretty damning list against taking such a high mileage running back.

Good players get a lot of touches is all I am saying. There have been more RB flameouts with lesser workloads vs ones with greater workloads. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

I have not said anything about a second contract, give me 5 great years and I'm done with you, especially if you are close to the 1800 carry mark. Is this what I exactly want out of a late first/ early second round pick - not next year in a deep draft, but this year in a light class and where our team is right now? I may very easily take this swing.

 

I have said in other threads I wanted Edge, boom or bust prospect at pick 30.

 

 

I am not certain we would dip our toe into the next tier of CB at this pick and I do see OL as being a very viable and likely pick. If we are chasing Mahomes, with a 3.6% sack percentage and a player who thrives even more out of the pocket than in, I am not sure that Edge makes that big of a difference - 3.6 sacks on 100 dropbacks I'm not sure how much that moves the needle if we can't score and keep the chains moving when the passing game is taken away.

 

Edited April 29, 2021 by Reed83HOF

[McBean]

8 hours ago, Logic said:

Benjamin Allbright only posts one mock draft each year. He posts it the day before the draft.

 

**Edit: He has known which direction the Bills were leaning several years running (not last year, as they had no 1st round pick). He sometimes knows the specific player they like, but usually at least knows the position they most want to pick in round 1. From what I have experienced in the past few years, he seems to have legitimate league sources.

 

This year, he said over a month ago that they were looking running back and has stuck to his guns ever since. Lo and behold, in his mock, he has them taking Etienne even with Newsome and Barmore still on the board.

 

I’m posting this only because Allbright seems to have legit league sources, particularly one with the Bills, and he’s way more accurate/trustworthy than most. 

 

Take from it what you will.

 

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2021-nfl-mock-draft-1-round-albright/

 

Lets goooooo!!!!!

 

Make it happen Beane

[Ray Finkel]

5 hours ago, Special K said:

 

 

 

I guess I should’ve just called it the curse of Spiller and Watkins.

I had the pleasure of watching Jerry.  He was a great receiver and would have even been better if he didn’t have a few injuries.  His career ended after catching a touchdown from Kelly while breaking his leg.

[Buffalo716]

8 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Disagree.

 

He should be out in the flat catching the hot route pass and turning it up field for 15 yards.

 

If we keep him in to block at all, THEN it is a wasted pick.

You're not getting on the field in the NFL if you can't block as a running back

 

That's just how it is for the most part

 

Listen to Moss talk about how daboll isn't putting you on the field if you can't block.. 3rd down running backs do a lot more than just catch out of the backfield 

 

They protect the quarterback the majority of time . For most NFL teams

Edited April 29, 2021 by Buffalo716

[CommonCents]

23 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Are you using THAT list to SUPPORT the notion that Etienne having a ton of mileage (820 touches counting KOR's) isn't significant?    That's actually a pretty damning list against taking such a high mileage running back.

Agreed. He has more touches than all of them and he is a finesse back. His YPC is already down. I’d vomit. If you want more offense and points just draft Terrace Marshall.

[Ray Finkel]

7 hours ago, I'm Spartacus said:

Ha! Good memory!

I believe he was on the cover of Sports Illustrated after Clemson won the national championship.

[OldTimer1960]

44 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

You could almost say that about any player in any position...

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/mileage-matters-the-value-of-rb-wear-tear

 

the top backs in the NFL are guys who came from heavy carry loads due to how good they were early on in their college careers.

 

David Johnson - 866

Kareem Hunt - 782

Ezekiel Elliott - 592

Todd Gurley - 510

Saquon Barkley - 671

Le'Veon Bell - 671

Melvin Gordon - 631

Nick Chubb - 758

Alex Collins - 665

James Connor - 668

Jay Ajayi - 678

Christian McCaffrey - 632

Dalvin Cook - 687

Aaron Jones - 658

Jordan Howard - 647

Kerryon Johnson - 519

Leonard Fournette - 616

Marlon Mack - 586

Derrick Henry - 602

Phillip Lindsay - 765

 

Honestly, from that list, which is basically most of the top rushers in the NFL, the only ones who you could hang your hat on with mileage being a concern are Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook, but Fournette's chronic injures problems were well documented before he was drafted, and Cook's injury was a random ACL injury. As for the rest, usage is a good indicator of future success, not future injury.

 

In the under 300 club, Alvin Kamara (210), Chris Carson (213), Damien Williams (290), Peyton Barber (248) Kenyan Drake (233),  and Nyheim Hines (258) are the ones who lead the way, but as you can see, those who had under 300 carries in college are far outnumbered by those who had over 500 carries when it comes to significant roles in the NFL.

Many on that list slowed down not too far into their NFL career - do you disagree?

[mjdotson]

Najee Harris is twice the back as ETN.  He’s significantly bigger (6’2” 230 vs. 5’10” 215), equally as athletic (if not moreso) and is a phenomenal leader and lockerroom guy.  I don’t know how many more soft skill position guys from Clemson some fans need to see struggle in the NFL and specifically in Buffalo before they realize players from Bama are tougher, better prepared and generally (not always) tend to fare really well.

[BADOLBILZ]

11 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

Good players get a lot of touches is all I am saying. There have been more RB flameouts with lesser workloads vs ones with greater workloads. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

I have not said anything about a second contract, give me 5 great years and I'm done with you, especially if you are close to the 1800 carry mark. Is this what I exactly want out of a late first/ early second round pick - not next year in a deep draft, but this year in a light class and where our team is right now? I may very easily take this swing.

 

I have said in other threads I wanted Edge, boom or bust prospect at pick 30.

 

 

I am not certain we would dip our toe into the next tier of CB at this pick and I do see OL as being a very viable and likely pick. If we are chasing Mahomes, with a 3.6% sack percentage and a player who thrives even more out of the pocket than in, I am not sure that Edge makes that big of a difference - 3.6 sacks on 100 dropbacks I'm not sure how much that moves the needle if we can't score and keep the chains moving when the passing game is taken away.

 

 

 

The conclusion you are drawing is the opposite of what the data on those RB's is telling you.     And the "5 great years" thing might be the biggest fallacy of all the things people use to justify drafting a RB.   Nobody on that list has given their team 5 great years.   Not even one.   Now add a 17th game to their seasons?    Never been more unwise to draft a RB in round 1.

 

Oweh is intriguing.    I am more of a Rousseau fan.    My 3 top targets at #30 are Eichenberg, Marshall and Rousseau.    Eich helps protect Allen and buy him time which makes all of the playmakers more effective.....including the RB's.    Marshall can play all 3 spots and be a seam stretcher or a guy who stretches the field from outside the numbers and also a big body to help them in the redzone.    Rousseau has rare size and length and tackling ability and that leads to production behind the LOS.    The common thread is that they were all huge producers at key positions when they were on the field and aren't all full of injury flags.   I'd also be fine with the right CB but I don't expect Newsome or a Bills medical approved Farley to be there and would be happy with Adebo or Campbell later.

[YoloinOhio]

13 minutes ago, mjdotson said:

Najee Harris is twice the back as ETN.  He’s significantly bigger (6’2” 230 vs. 5’10” 215), equally as athletic (if not moreso) and is a phenomenal leader and lockerroom guy.  I don’t know how many more soft skill position guys from Clemson some fans need to see struggle in the NFL and specifically in Buffalo before they realize players from Bama are tougher, better prepared and generally (not always) tend to fare really well.

I love Najee!

[BADOLBILZ]

8 minutes ago, mjdotson said:

Najee Harris is twice the back as ETN.  He’s significantly bigger (6’2” 230 vs. 5’10” 215), equally as athletic (if not moreso) and is a phenomenal leader and lockerroom guy.  I don’t know how many more soft skill position guys from Clemson some fans need to see struggle in the NFL and specifically in Buffalo before they realize players from Bama are tougher, better prepared and generally (not always) tend to fare really well.

 

The difference between a great producing RB and a below average one is less than yard.    I know you are exaggerating for effect but it brings up a good point....... there isn't much difference between the per snap production of average and great RB play.    For comparison purposes......Julio Jones can catch 100 passes and produce 400-500 yards more than Jarvis Landry in his 100 grabs.    And those receivers are both GOOD.    At RB the spread on the same 100 touches(rushing or receiving) between a stud RB and a mediocre one is just 50-150 yards.   

[dave mcbride]

6 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I love Najee!

I like him as the #42 overall pick.