Beane's toughest draft yet. The conundrum; there aren't 30 players with a 1st round grade in this draft

[Shaw66]

20 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Beane's 2018 draft was all about dealing for a QB.  In 2019 there were just three or four players (Oliver, TJ Hockenson, Josh Allen, Devin Bush) who were real options for the Bills at #9.  In 2020 we didn't even have a 1st round pick.  This draft is going to be a wild ride with so many possibilities.  This is going to be Beane's toughest draft so far.

 

It's an unusual position to be in for the Bills' front office and fans.  We're drafting at #30 this year and there are typically less than 30 players with a "1st round grade" on them in any given NFL draft.   Practically speaking, this means that Brandon Beane is sitting in a position where he may end up using a 1st round draft pick on a player who has a 2nd round grade on their draft board.

 

There is a lot of talk about drafting a RB, even trading up to do so.  The question is, do the Bills have a 1st round grade on either Etienne or Harris?  If so, that could influence Beane into making a move up to grab one of them if standing pat will result in drafting a player with a 2nd round grade at #30.  Conversely, if everyone with a 1st round grade is already gone by the time the Bills are on the clock, the best course of action might be to try and trade back if doing so would still get you a player with a 2nd round grade and more draft capital.

 

I've linked to some rankings that don't just rank players #1 - #200, but identifies those players with a "1st round grade".  They range from one set of rankings giving only twelve players a 1st round grade in this years draft to another analyst who assigned twenty-eight 1st round grades.  Some of the rankings below have Etienne and Harris with a 1st round grade, while others don't give one or either of them a 1st round grade.

 

 ********************

 

"I've given out 25 first-round grades for the 2021 NFL Draft; so if you're picking 29th overall and all of these players are gone, my endorsement would be to try to trade back into the early portions of the next round and try again so you can find "appropriate value."

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/first-round-grades-2021-nfl-draft-kyle-crabbs

 

The author of these rankings has only 12 players with clear "First Round Grades - Tier 1", and has players ranked 13-27 placed in a second category called "Fringe First- Early Second - Tier Two"

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2021/4/26/22402560/zach-hicks-final-2021-nfl-draft-top-200-big-board

 

"Yes, there are fewer than 32 first-round grades. That’s typical, especially within the league. Just because there are 32 first-round picks every year doesn’t mean there are 32 prospects worthy of first-round selection."   (Spoiler...there are 23 players with 1st round grades)

https://draftwire.usatoday.com/lists/2021-nfl-draft-rankings-big-board-top-300-prospects/

 

"My final 2021 NFL Draft board presently breaks down as follows: 26 players with solid first-round grades..."

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl-draft-prospects-2021-updated-big-board-player-rankings/

 

 

 

 

Thanks for this.  Interesting.   I'm a big fan of trading back.   More solid talent is what the Bills should be looking for if they can't find (and they probably can't) a game changer at #30.   Trading up to get a true first round talent isn't very attractive to me, because all they can do is trade up to maybe 20.  At 20, you can get a good player, but it's a crap shoot to find a real game changer there.  Still, if the Bills think a guy is a top 10 talent and he's sitting at 20, I can see why they might go up for him.  

[Turk71]

  I'm not opposed to moving back for another 3rd rnd or an early 4th rnd pick if the Bills don't love their choices at 30. I think there will be good value to be had at that stage of the draft. 

[Mr. WEO]

This will be his easiest draft yet.

[Aussie Joe]

Certainly will be easier than when he had to pick a QB...

 

 

[AmishRifle]

Flip the script.  We are in the first position for the 2nd Round.  Seriously, I get the no first round talent talk.  Just make a good pick and take the guy with the best grade.

[BigAl2526]

I get the practice of putting a draft placement grade on players, but while there might be some year to year variation, I'm guessing that it would be a rare year when more than 32 players got a first round grade, and an overwhelming majority of drafts have fewer than 30 players with a first round grade.  

 

There are other factors that go into the decision to trade out of the round or not.  The most obvious is the question of who is willing to trade with you.  I would guess that most of the time you don't want to drop below the top third of the second round  Who in that group is willing to trade, and what will they give you for the #30 spot?   Team need and the value of available players by position is a huge factor.  I imagine individual preference weighs on that factor.  For instance, most would agree that WR is not a huge need for the Bills this year.  Obviously Jaylen Waddle, Jamar Chase, Devonta Smith and Rashod Bateman are going to be gone at 30.  Kadarius Toney may or may not be available, and Elijah Moore probably will be available.  If he is, Beane has to decide how much of a value he is.  Buffalo could conceivably have to part ways with Beasley next season because of cap issues and Beasley's age.  Either Toney or Moore could fill Beasley's role, and both have the speed to be a legit deep threat like John Brown.  Plus they are tough enough to fill Isaiah McKenzie's gadget player role.  That adds up to quite a bit of value I would not be dismayed if Buffalo ended up with either one of them at #30.  Finally, there is the Round 1 contract consideration.  When you draft a player in round 1, you've got him for 4 years at a value price, (if he's any good) plus a bonus fifth year if you want him at a higher price that a team may still consider to be a bargain.  If you're rolling the dice on a player with issues, maybe you don't care about that fifth year, buy maybe you would consider a player with a little lower ceiling  (and draft position ranking) if he's got a high floor, and you want the stability the fifth year option gives you.  Carlos Basham might be an example.  I would guess he's not currently regarded as a first round value, but at the same time a lot of people consider him to be a safe pick who will have a nice NFL career.

 

I think it is very possible the Bills trade out of the #30 spot, either up 5-8 spots, or down to the top third of the second round, but if they stand pat at #30, I'm not going to worry to much about the value they're getting.

[Saxum]

It is not a requirement that team get pick in time, next team just picks.

http://www.espn.com/nfldraft/columnist?id=1545117

If there is no one "worth" taking at pick number #30 and no trade down worth taking just miss pick clock until player "worth" taking is on the board.

 

Maybe first time a GM does that and probably will have rules changed next year.

[Locomark]

If they don’t have any 1st round grades left yet a bunch of 2nd round grades I may even try to trade back into spots 10+ in round 2 and attempt to snag an extra early 3rd rounder hoping I can get 3 2nd round grades guys this draft. That could make this a very exciting draft of quality for this team. 

[Da webster guy]

On 4/28/2021 at 6:30 AM, Bill Murray said:

With so many misses and outright busts each and every year in the top 15, these types of pre-draft rankings and ratings aren’t really worth the paper they are written on.  So much goes into whether a player has a successful career from athletic ability to personal motivation, coaching and system, personal life, injuries, and the element of ‘chance’ that life brings to each and every one of us.

 

The bills have youth and depth at almost every position which makes this draft significantly less meaningful to the overall future of the organization.  I agree w trying to trade back and get more picks next year, and also would be in favor of trading the pick for a vet that can help us win now.  Otherwise, cornerback seems to be the deepest position and one we could use more players in so that would be my pick at 30. 

 

good points but the exception in regard to youth and depth is edge and maybe cb.

[ghostwriter]

On 4/28/2021 at 2:07 AM, GunnerBill said:

I have 18 firsts and 4 borderline firsts. 

What is your criteria for determining whether a player is a first or not?

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

What is your criteria for determining whether a player is a first or not?

 

It is dependant on positional value. Broadly:

 

For a Quarterback - if I determine they are likely to be a two contract (broadly 10 years) starter. Equally I now have a boost for anyone who I think is 50/50 on that but if they hit could be elite. But that is a result of reviewing mistakes like Josh Allen. 

 

For other priority positions - CB, Edge, OT, WR - do they have the ability to be an immediate starter and play for two contracts at a regular pro bowl consideration level. 

 

For lesser priority positions - do they have the ability to be an immediate starter and become elite at their position.

 

Edited April 29, 2021 by GunnerBill

[Bill Murray]

42 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

good points but the exception in regard to youth and depth is edge and maybe cb.

dont disagree, although we drafted Epenesa last year and have a few young corners.  DE will be even more glaring after this year as Hughes will be in the twilight.  I think the sneaky big youth/depth issue might be at safety but its not on peoples radars yet bc Hyde and Poyer are locked-in.  That is going to creep up very quickly though as both are now 30 years old.... Losing Dean Marlowe really hurt us.  

[Shaw66]

I like trading down, but there's no way Beane will trade down.   He'll either trade up or stay put.   Trade up if there's a guy they rate really high who fills a perceived need.   That's like there's a guy at 22 who they rated 12.   Something like that.  

 

Or they'll take someone at 30?   Why?  Because there will almost certainly be someone they rated around 20 available then.  Why?   Well, because quarterbacks are so highly valued, some teams will take QBs who aren't really rated as first rounders but who are too valuable to them to pass on.   Plus, teams rate players differently.   Plus, there are some really talented guys, first round talent, that don't have the character, the emotional makeup that McBeane are looking for, and those guys aren't on Beane's board at all.   The result of all of that is that by 30, some guys McBeane really like will still be there.  

[BigAl2526]

12 hours ago, Limeaid said:

It is not a requirement that team get pick in time, next team just picks.

http://www.espn.com/nfldraft/columnist?id=1545117

If there is no one "worth" taking at pick number #30 and no trade down worth taking just miss pick clock until player "worth" taking is on the board.

 

Maybe first time a GM does that and probably will have rules changed next year.

I would be stunned if any GM actually did that deliberately.  Why?  Because they will worry about whom the teams that would pick above them would choose.  What if somebody else picks the player you had targeted at a lower spot?

[Saxum]

1 hour ago, BigAl2526 said:

I would be stunned if any GM actually did that deliberately.  Why?  Because they will worry about whom the teams that would pick above them would choose.  What if somebody else picks the player you had targeted at a lower spot?

 

If you are happy with (equally consider N players) for your pick you can skip (N-1) calls and draft player you are happy with and pay less.

[B-Man]

 

If you only "grade" 1 to 18 players as First round,

 

then try and get more 2nd round grade picks by a small trade down.

 

Easier said than done, I know.

 

But in Beane I trust.

 

 

[Ta111]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I like trading down, but there's no way Beane will trade down.   He'll either trade up or stay put.   Trade up if there's a guy they rate really high who fills a perceived need.   That's like there's a guy at 22 who they rated 12.   Something like that.  

 

Or they'll take someone at 30?   Why?  Because there will almost certainly be someone they rated around 20 available then.  Why?   Well, because quarterbacks are so highly valued, some teams will take QBs who aren't really rated as first rounders but who are too valuable to them to pass on.   Plus, teams rate players differently.   Plus, there are some really talented guys, first round talent, that don't have the character, the emotional makeup that McBeane are looking for, and those guys aren't on Beane's board at all.   The result of all of that is that by 30, some guys McBeane really like will still be there.  

Completely agree. Some act as if every teams board is the same. The boards are going to be different for a variety of reasons as stated. There will be someone available at 30 for Beane who may be 20 on his board but 35 on another team’s.

I really think he stays at 30.

[BigAl2526]

6 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

If you are happy with (equally consider N players) for your pick you can skip (N-1) calls and draft player you are happy with and pay less.

I'm not sure I understand what you're saying, but I assume your positing that there are multiple players that a GM likes a few picks back, so he'd wait in order to shave a bit off the salary needed to draft him.  I understand the reasoning, but GMs are notoriously risk averse.  The salary difference between draft slots six spaces apart is probably the last consideration a GM would ever have.  

 

Given Buffalo's position at the end of the first, there is an additional consideration to make, the fifth year option that the team has.  If you think the player you're drafting has a chance to be good (and that's why you're drafting him early in the draft, that fifth year option gives you a little insurance that you can keep him under contract a bit longer.  That is a consideration for GMs.  Buffalo loses that if they just pass until the draft gets to the second round.

[HalftimeAdjustment]

If one of our top 30 ranked players is available at #30 and they are good enough to contribute this year, pick 'em and dont worry about grade. If they are not going to be a factor this year, trade down.

 

Trade up only if we have a target.