Beane's toughest draft yet. The conundrum; there aren't 30 players with a 1st round grade in this draft

[Inigo Montoya]

Beane's 2018 draft was all about dealing for a QB.  In 2019 there were just three or four players (Oliver, TJ Hockenson, Josh Allen, Devin Bush) who were real options for the Bills at #9.  In 2020 we didn't even have a 1st round pick.  This draft is going to be a wild ride with so many possibilities.  This is going to be Beane's toughest draft so far.

 

It's an unusual position to be in for the Bills' front office and fans.  We're drafting at #30 this year and there are typically less than 30 players with a "1st round grade" on them in any given NFL draft.   Practically speaking, this means that Brandon Beane is sitting in a position where he may end up using a 1st round draft pick on a player who has a 2nd round grade on their draft board.

 

There is a lot of talk about drafting a RB, even trading up to do so.  The question is, do the Bills have a 1st round grade on either Etienne or Harris?  If so, that could influence Beane into making a move up to grab one of them if standing pat will result in drafting a player with a 2nd round grade at #30.  Conversely, if everyone with a 1st round grade is already gone by the time the Bills are on the clock, the best course of action might be to try and trade back if doing so would still get you a player with a 2nd round grade and more draft capital.

 

I've linked to some rankings that don't just rank players #1 - #200, but identifies those players with a "1st round grade".  They range from one set of rankings giving only twelve players a 1st round grade in this years draft to another analyst who assigned twenty-eight 1st round grades.  Some of the rankings below have Etienne and Harris with a 1st round grade, while others don't give one or either of them a 1st round grade.

 

 ********************

 

"I've given out 25 first-round grades for the 2021 NFL Draft; so if you're picking 29th overall and all of these players are gone, my endorsement would be to try to trade back into the early portions of the next round and try again so you can find "appropriate value."

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/first-round-grades-2021-nfl-draft-kyle-crabbs

 

The author of these rankings has only 12 players with clear "First Round Grades - Tier 1", and has players ranked 13-27 placed in a second category called "Fringe First- Early Second - Tier Two"

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2021/4/26/22402560/zach-hicks-final-2021-nfl-draft-top-200-big-board

 

"Yes, there are fewer than 32 first-round grades. That’s typical, especially within the league. Just because there are 32 first-round picks every year doesn’t mean there are 32 prospects worthy of first-round selection."   (Spoiler...there are 23 players with 1st round grades)

https://draftwire.usatoday.com/lists/2021-nfl-draft-rankings-big-board-top-300-prospects/

 

"My final 2021 NFL Draft board presently breaks down as follows: 26 players with solid first-round grades..."

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl-draft-prospects-2021-updated-big-board-player-rankings/

 

 

 

 

Edited April 28, 2021 by Inigo Montoya

[BuffaloBillies]

My unpopular opinion is... take the guy that helps us win now. If he's a 2nd round draft grade, so what! Best for us is what matters. 10 picks up or down, overvalued/undervalued.... BS. Get our guy and win. 

Edited April 28, 2021 by BuffaloBillies

[ganesh]

35 minutes ago, BuffaloBillies said:

My unpopular opinion is... take the guy that helps us win now. If he's a 2nd round draft grade, so what! Best for us is what matters. 10 picks up or down, overvalued/undervalued.... BS. Get our guy and win. 

+1    Also, the first round grading by the Bills management could very well be different than all these draft pundit rankings.  I am sure the Bills trust and value their scouts opinions.

[iccrewman112]

Don’t be scared to trade back and get 2nd and 3rd rounders next year when there will be 2.5X times more draft entrants. Picks 30-100 next year will be very good next year in my opinion.

[NoSaint]

8 minutes ago, ganesh said:

+1    Also, the first round grading by the Bills management could very well be different than all these draft pundit rankings.  I am sure the Bills trust and value their scouts opinions.

I get there’s variance any given year but I don’t recall ever seeing a draft expert saying there were 38 first round grades... but plenty of times (essentially every year) only 20-24.

 

it’s almost like scarcity creates drama and drama creates clicks.

[Augie]

45 minutes ago, BuffaloBillies said:

My unpopular opinion is... take the guy that helps us win now. If he's a 2nd round draft grade, so what! Best for us is what matters. 10 picks up or down, overvalued/undervalued.... BS. Get our guy and win. 

 

I’ve heard a bunch of people say there are 15-18 true first round grade guys. We may have an opportunity to drop back and maybe recover the 4th round pick we gave up for Diggs and more. It’s a VERY strange year for scouting with Covid, lack of games, interviews and a combine. 

 

I trust our scouts more than most, and think we may have a bit of an advantage this year. 

[US Egg]

Maybe a dry draft this year.

 

There will be good players had though.

 

Like Polian, when he proved himself, trust McBeane.

[jwhit34]

A lot of people and articles say if there are only 20-25 players with first round grades and you have #30 and they're all gone, you should trade down. The flaw in that logic is if everyone else has the same grades why would they want to trade up? Of course not everyone has the same grade for every player so it is possible. 

[Thurman#1]

There are never 30 players with first round grades. We hear this same thing every year, it's just that it hasn't been important to us because we haven't been drafting so far back in a long long time.

 

You hear two general variations on it over and over. First is the "There are 10 - 15 blue chip players" deal. Every year. Then there's the "there aren't (somewhere around 25 usually) first round guys" deal. Again, you hear it pretty much every year.

[Richard Noggin]

I think you're right in that earning a LATE first round pick, which every team should strive to do, presents novel challenges each year. And this year's draft might be uniquely challenging once they get past the dozen-or-so blue chippers.

 

Moreover, I'll bet the 32 NFL draft boards this year are more varied and subjective than ever before. We might see the pundits and fans alike caught off-guard by more picks this year, as the prospects' draft profiles don't have the same degree of standardization (which was already subject to considerable variance) that teams have grown accustomed to. We're likely all a bit more clueless than usual about the actual inner workings of this year's team-specific draft evaluations.

 

Seems like this is a year to let the draft play-out in front of you. Some highly-rated talents WILL fall, seeing as the prospect ratings from team-to-team will be less consistent. 

 

The draft should NOT be about immediate upgrades in any year (QB aside). It's about long-term roster building for the most part. Gotta keep cool and patient. Unless of course one of those top-fifteen (in the Bills' eyes) blue-chippers plummets. Then maybe they deal up. But I don't favor that approach. 

[Nihilarian]

ESPN gives 25 players a grade of 90 or better with Lawrence getting a 97.

 

http://insider.espn.com/nfl/draft/rankings/_/year/2021

 

When talking about this draft Beane mentioned it would be more for the future over an impact starter this season. This leads me to think O line and a future center. 

[Da webster guy]

21 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

 

The draft should NOT be about immediate upgrades in any year (QB aside). It's about long-term roster building for the most part. Gotta keep cool and patient. Unless of course one of those top-fifteen (in the Bills' eyes) blue-chippers plummets. Then maybe they deal up. But I don't favor that approach. 

 

We have spots where a good rookie can be an immediate upgrade and day 1 starter.  Tre White was 27th pick, contributed right away.   Another top corner could do the same.

 

I know its not as fun as Etienne, but CB and Edge are what get you off the field on 3rd down vs KC, who basically moved the ball on us at will every 3rd down we faced them last year in both games because they either had a WR open or Mahomes had 5 seconds or more to throw.   It was embarrassing and we have made no moves in FA to upgrade in that area. 

 

KC has a better line than last year on paper.  We can't come back with the same D and hope things will change just because Star is back.

 

 

 

 

 

[Aussie Joe]

Conundrum?

 

Its a riddle wrapped in an mystery inside an enigma ...

 

But at the end of the day he is going to have to pick someone first round grade or not..

 

If this is the price for being a Top 4 team then I can get used to it..

[LeGOATski]

No matter what they're graded, there will be 32 players picked in the 1st round. I recommend that Beane grabs the best player available. The Bills don't necessarily need a bunch of picks. They're currently a contender with good depth.

[Utah John]

Beane isn't just managing the salary cap.  He's also managing the roster not only for this year but for the future.  As I've been saying for weeks, I think Beane is drafting the BPA in one of the positions where he expects to have a need in 2-3 years.  There won't be a lot of roster spots for many rookies, and there are very few spots in the starting lineup where a rookie will be better than the veteran incumbent.  Maybe EDGE is the exception.  So if he can't get an EDGE rusher he thinks is worth the pick, my personal best guess is that Beane will draft a safety who will be ready to go when either Hyde or Poyer loses a step in a couple of years.  It went without much notice, but the Bills let Dean Marlowe, a good reserve safety, leave during the offseason.  I think Marlowe's roster spot goes to a rookie.  

[GunnerBill]

I have 18 firsts and 4 borderline firsts. 

[machine gun kelly]

4 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

 

We have spots where a good rookie can be an immediate upgrade and day 1 starter.  Tre White was 27th pick, contributed right away.   Another top corner could do the same.

 

I know its not as fun as Etienne, but CB and Edge are what get you off the field on 3rd down vs KC, who basically moved the ball on us at will every 3rd down we faced them last year in both games because they either had a WR open or Mahomes had 5 seconds or more to throw.   It was embarrassing and we have made no moves in FA to upgrade in that area. 

 

KC has a better line than last year on paper.  We can't come back with the same D and hope things will change just because Star is back.

 

 

 

 

 

The problem is more boards than not published on the “1st rd grade” at DE is only two guys.  Phillips and Paye.  Several of the boards only list 4 CB’s, 1 TE, and 2 RB’s.  The most likely if we trade up as we would have to give away our 3rd, or maybe 3rd and 1 5th (swapping 1sts of course) to get to a place to get one of the slots say in the low 20’s is either a CB or RB.  As Noggin mentioned, it might just be best to let the board fall to you unless one that Beane covets is there and then Bam a trade in five minutes.

 

What will be interesting to me is with the third pick does SF get a now QB (Fields, Jones) or later (Lance).  That tells you whether JG is going somewhere.  Also, how many desperate teams overreach for a QB.  I know it’s commonly thought five guys in rd 1, but lots of bad teams get desperate.

 

Should be an interesting night.  If we don’t trade up, day 2 will be a fun Bills day as that is where I think Beane so going to be trading up in the 2nd or 3rd.  By this weekend, I’m going to be drafted out.

[maryland-bills-fan]

I agree that the top 15-20 holds the 1st rounders.   If our BPA from that group drops to #30 the choice is clear.  If not, than a player in the top 40 and an extra pick is the way to go.        A reason why teams would get extra value from trading to get our #30 is the 5th year option on the player drafted in the first round.

 

Options to using the delta draft value of +120, would be to trade up our 2nd or 3rd round picks. Say we trade #30 down to #40 and get 120 draft value points to play with.  (yes, you have to get different teams to tango with you- lets see the sort of things that could happen)

 

#30    #61    #93    Is what we have right now

#40    #49   #93    If we trade down our first and up with our second round pick

#40    #61   #68    If we trade down our first and up with our third round pick.

 

Two players in the top 50 looks like a better choice-  we could get good quality at DE and CB.

 

Another option is to just take that +120 points (worth something at the bottom of the 3rd round #95) and invest it in a 2022 draft pick, which would become (using the bromide that trading a pick this year for a pick next year gets you a one round higher pick next year) a low second round pick (#62) in 2022.  2022 is supposed to be a much richer draft class  and that would give us two second round pick

 

[Bill Murray]

With so many misses and outright busts each and every year in the top 15, these types of pre-draft rankings and ratings aren’t really worth the paper they are written on.  So much goes into whether a player has a successful career from athletic ability to personal motivation, coaching and system, personal life, injuries, and the element of ‘chance’ that life brings to each and every one of us.

 

The bills have youth and depth at almost every position which makes this draft significantly less meaningful to the overall future of the organization.  I agree w trying to trade back and get more picks next year, and also would be in favor of trading the pick for a vet that can help us win now.  Otherwise, cornerback seems to be the deepest position and one we could use more players in so that would be my pick at 30. 

 

Edited April 29, 2021 by Bill Murray

[TBBills]

Actually this might be his easiest since 4 QBs will go early and a few RBs. He definitely has plenty of first round grade talent to choose from at 30.

 

It is funny to watch people on this forum think this since some of you fans have never seen the Bills draft this late.

Edited April 28, 2021 by TBBills