Gunner's 2021 Draft Quarterback Evaluations

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

If so then it would be a great pick in the top 10. Personally I think Allen might be one of the most driven people the league has ever seen. It's on par with Brady who very well may be the most competitive football player of all time. It isn't something that's talked about enough as a skill set. I would put Allen's elite competitiveness on par with his elite arm strength as far as keys to his success.

 

It is more than just competitiveness.... it is drive. Like I say it is getting up on a wet, dark February morning when there is nobody out there to compete with and you could stay in bed to go and work yourself as hard as possible because in 7 months time there will be a guy standing across the line from you ready to compete. Josh appears to have that drive in spades and it is, I agree, not something everyone has. 

[YoloinOhio]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

1. Justin

2. Trey

3. Mac 

4. Zach (he looks like 12 years old)

5. Trevor (he looks like a different species) 

You don’t dig the “dad bod” achieved by age 22? Btw did you know Mac is short for McKorkle? 
 

 

Edited April 28, 2021 by YoloinOhio

[mannc]

12 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

You don’t dig the “dad bod” achieved by age 22? Btw did you know Mac is short for McKorkle? 
 

 

I don’t understand...

[YoloinOhio]

4 minutes ago, mannc said:

I don’t understand...

Mac is short for mckorkle, his middle name. Things we never really needed to know but are inundated with during pre draft hype 

[NewEra]

appreciate all the detail GB.  The one thing I can’t put my finger on is Trey Lances throwing motion.  I just don’t like it.  I like the QB, but I find myself thinking that was an ugly looking throw when he lets it go.  
 

 

Where are @Zerovoltz QB rankings?  I came here looking for them 😂

[YoloinOhio]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

appreciate all the detail GB.  The one thing I can’t put my finger on is Trey Lances throwing motion.  I just don’t like it.  I like the QB, but I find myself thinking that was an ugly looking throw when he lets it go.  
 

 

Where are @Zerovoltz QB rankings?  I came here looking for them 😂

I feel like Lance to SF is happening and I don’t bet money on much but really want to do it 

[NewEra]

9 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I feel like Lance to SF is happening and I don’t bet money on much but really want to do it 

I can bet it for you if you like.  I bet it twice already, but the line is moving. Opened at +260.  I bet it at +230 and +190.  I think it’s a lock.  No way the niners trade all those picks for this. No way

[Zerovoltz]

13 minutes ago, NewEra said:

appreciate all the detail GB.  The one thing I can’t put my finger on is Trey Lances throwing motion.  I just don’t like it.  I like the QB, but I find myself thinking that was an ugly looking throw when he lets it go.  
 

 

Where are @Zerovoltz QB rankings?  I came here looking for them 😂

In no particular order

 

Lawrence - will be good, Baker Mayfield like where he is your QB but not elite.

 

Wilson - will struggle early.  Will learn some hard lessons about too much hero ball.  Eventually becomes serviceable.

 

Lance -  I believe he is going to SF and will be a star there.  They will max out his ability.

 

Fields.  Put me in the camp that thinks he’s a great athlete that can’t read defenses.  Ultimately he will bust

 

Jones.  I’m not that impressed.  He’d do well on a team that had a strong run game to support him, but I think he ends up as something of a journeyman.

[DCOrange]

Not going to bother starting my own thread for it, but if you'd like to peruse the scouting reports I wrote up for this year's class (as well as the last few classes), here's a link: https://draftqbs.wordpress.com/2021-draft/overall-grades/

 

The short version of how I feel about each of them:

1. Trevor Lawrence - 96 - generational type prospect, most likely comp is a poor man's Rodgers
2. Justin Fields - 87 - high floor, high ceiling prospect, most likely comp is bigger Tyrod Taylor
3. Trey Lance - 86 - wider range of outcomes than Fields but similarly high grade, most likely comp is what we got out of Josh Allen the first two years
4. Zach Wilson - 84 - A tier below Fields and Lance as I just don't think his ceiling is as high, most likely comp is a less mobile Kyler Murray
5. Kellen Mond - 79 - The range of outcomes from here on out are wider and or less exciting; I have his most likely comp as Geno Smith with the potential to be a Kaepernick type player (and perhaps in the right scheme, that could be a really valuable guy like it briefly was for Kaep)
6. Mac Jones - 76 - meh floor, meh ceiling, most likely comp is a poor man's Andy Dalton. I have his ceiling as a Brad Johnson type, which is fine but not really what you're looking for in this era of football IMO
7. Davis Mills - 75 - think he likely amounts to nothing (most likely comp being Josh Rosen) but an intriguing ceiling if all goes well (less combustible Jameis Winston)
8. Kyle Trask - 67 - low floor, low ceiling, barely draftable to me. Most likely comp is Ryan Nassib and ceiling is Kyle Orton

If I could go back and do it again, I think I probably made my original scale to congested so, for example, I have like 4 guys at a 79 over the past 5 drafts. I should have made it so that players like Trask would be closer to a 0 so that the grades were more spread out but I don't want to go back and change it at this point because that would feel like potentially cheating haha.

[Nihilarian]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

If so then it would be a great pick in the top 10. Personally I think Allen might be one of the most driven people the league has ever seen. It's on par with Brady who very well may be the most competitive football player of all time. It isn't something that's talked about enough as a skill set. I would put Allen's elite competitiveness on par with his elite arm strength as far as keys to his success.

I agree! 

 

I must have made 20 or more posts before the 2018 NFL draft talking up Josh Allen and his work ethic. Brought up on a farm and up worked from dawn till dusk when not on the football field starts the talk about it. What would you rather do, play football or work on the family farm?

 

The fact that he was a skinny 6'3'' 180 lbs kid attempting to get a scholarship to a football college out of high school, in that he was forced to attend Junior college. Even after a season at Jr college he was still 6'5 210 lbs. Allen sent out over 2000+ emails with his resume and only two colleges responded. Eastern Michigan rescinded once they found out that he was talking with Wyoming. 

 

Once at Wyoming they realized what they had and the HC gushed about him by saying defenses were forced to defend the entire field because of that arm of his...

Once the team called a run play in practice and Allen changed the play calling for a deep bomb which resulted in a TD. The coach said what the heck are ya doing? Allen retorted with a huge grin and said, Favre only throws TDs (his favorite NFL player). You could see his love for the game. 

 

In Allen's final season at Wyoming every player that had touched the ball on offense was gone and he basically played with a bunch of rookies that season. Allen basically carried Wyoming to bowl games each season with little talent around him. His receivers were bad, his line was bad and still, bowl games. He played in the snow and cold in Wyoming...remind you of another snowy town? 

 

About his accuracy, Allen knew he needed to work on his footwork and he was already working with Jordan Palmer after the season. 

 

If you really dug deep into Josh Allen pre 2018 draft you just had to fall in love with him and his passion for the game. Easy to see over every other prospect. 

 

 

 

[dave mcbride]

On 4/27/2021 at 7:08 PM, GunnerBill said:

**** Warning Long Post ****

 

Here, belatedly, is my annual breakdown of the top Quarterbacks in the draft class. I have only got to the top 5 in any serious detail but I do have some notes on Kellen Mond, Kyle Trask and David Mills that I will try and add to this thread in due course if I get time before Thursday evening. 

 

A reminder of my process for those who are new before we begin: 

 

1. My process is four step as every year:

- Try to identify the runners and riders at Quarterback the summer before;

- Try and watch each at least twice in live game action on tv by mid season (obviously this year this step was not possible given Ohio State started late and NDSU didn't play more than 1 game)

- From new year work on the film out there on each and start to break down for evaluation purposes - for non QBs on my draft board my rule is must have seen 3 full games minimum. For Quarterbacks I set that number at 6;

- Pick up on anyone who came late onto the scene and catch up with their film.  

 

2. I try and balance the games I watch back in the evaluation phase for each prospect. I want to see them at their best and their worst in so far as is possible and against a range of opposition where possible.  

 

3. My grades for each are against an objective scale…. They are not predictions of where players should go in the draft, nor are they relative to the strength of the rest of that year’s draft class.  Mid to late first round does not mean “oh my God Gunner only has player x 25th on his big board”. Second round grade does also not mean I'd never take the guy in the first. The one position where I think you can always justify what might on pure grade be a reach is for a potential franchise Quarterback.

 

Right.... with all that said, let's go to it.... and remember folks, it's only an opinion. Feel free to disagree as vehemently as you like  

 

In no particular order....

 

 

Zach Wilson – BYU – Junior

Games watched: Houston, Boise State, San Diego State, UCF (all 2020); San Diego State, Washington, Utah (all 2019).

 

Pros:

• The kid has plenty of arm and can really zip the ball into tight windows with velocity. He can also adjust his arm angles and throw from unorthodox positions without sacrificing accuracy.
• He is a decisive decision maker. He has a bit of hero ball in him (more to come later) but he makes a decision and he sticks with it. Gets the ball out quickly and very little hesitation on his tape.
• Has some snaps under center and experience running RPO style plays which should both aid his transition to the modern NFL.
• Not phased in a messy pocket. Doesn’t drop his eyes to stare at the rush, can manipulate the pocket effectively, demonstrates good poise and keeps his eyes downfield.
• His accuracy is impressive, especially between the numbers when he puts the ball right where it needs to be.
• Excels against zone coverage and that is an area where there was a noticeable bump in his play in 2020. Really seems to understand what he is seeing and what a defense is doing.  

 

Cons:

• Hero ball. Too many throws into double coverage and every interception bar one that I saw on his film was a ball thrown recklessly downfield into double coverage.
• When throwing to the sideline on the far side of the field - i.e. the opposite side to where the ball is spotted on the hash marks – he seems to lose some of his precision and a lot of balls go incomplete because they are high or low.
• I don’t think he is as good an athlete as he thinks. He is fast once in the open field but he gets tackled and sacked too many times behind the line of scrimmage because he overrates his ability to duke defenders.
• I’d like to see a bit more anticipatory throwing. Hard because often in 2020 BYU receivers were running open but at times they just have to slow ever so slightly because Wilson is a split second late.
• Significant bump in his play in 2020 against relatively weak opposition. Legitimate question about whether that translates, especially early in the NFL. Huge step up.
• Size. I intentionally put it last because it should bother people less than it used to but 6’2 (at best) and 214lbs is not big for an NFL QB. He looks small out there.

 

Conclusion: Zach Wilson is the hardest evaluation of the Quarterbacks at the top of this draft for me. The kid is a gamer and a playmaker and I love his arm, accuracy and poise. His decision making at times is questionable and that gunslinger mentality in a situation (if indeed it is New York) where things could slide early would concern me. But he is something of a cross between Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield to me and if he is developed properly his ceiling is elite. Top 10 grade.

 

- - - - - - 

 

Justin Fields – Ohio State – Junior

Games watched: Penn State, Northwestern, Indiana, Clemson, Alabama (all 2020); Michigan, Rutgers, Clemson (all 2019).

 

Pros:

• Good arm, plenty of velocity but also demonstrates touch when required. Can throw downfield and across the field with success.
• Great athlete. Is going to be a weapon as a runner while the NFL game slows down for him, and he is also a very good thrower when booted out and on the move. 
• Experience under center, experience in shotgun and can run RPOs.
• There are big time NFL throws on his tape. The deep out, the corner route, the back shoulder fade – he can make them all.
• Has the prototypical size and is really thick in the lower body which helps him resist pressure in the pocket, hard to bring down and has a physical playing style that will enamor him to his NFL teammates.
• Throws from a good solid base, and even sets himself nicely when on the move. If anything a little over reliant on that base.

 

Cons:

• Holds the football too long. Led to fumbles in 2019 in particular but I’m not sold on him as a decision maker and there are times when he should throw the ball away rather than take a sack or allow himself to be hit.
• Not enough evidence of him throwing with anticipation. Not a full field reader at this stage and rarely gets beyond his second read.
• When things break down he looks too mechanical in the pocket. As alluded to above he relies on establishing that solid base and there are times in the NFL when things are not perfect and you just have to ad-lib and make a play.
• Accuracy is inconsistent. He isn’t inaccurate as such but there is a tendency to be high on throws that stop receivers in their tracks and limit any potential YAC.
• Seems to get in a rut. Both against Indiana and Northwestern mistakes are followed by mistakes and he needs to be able to re-set quicker and move onto the next play.
• Slight regression in his consistency in 2020 from 2019. The highs are still elite but the lows are a little more concerning.

 

Conclusion: Justin Fields was an exceptional Quarterback at Ohio State who has been there and done it successfully at pretty much the highest level in college football. His play-off semi final performance against Clemson was one of the great performances of the play-off era. I think as an NFL prospect he has a high floor and a reasonably high ceiling but to succeed early I think he needs a Shanahan style offense that simplifies his reads as opposed to a spread type system that requires him to read the whole field. Mid-first round grade.

 

- - - - - -

 

Trey Lance – North Dakota State – Red Shirt Sophomore

Games watched: Central Arkansas (2020); Delaware, Montana State, Butler, James Madison, South Dakota (all 2019).

 

Pros:

• Really experienced under center as well as in the gun and runs more play action than your average college quarterback, which makes him well placed to transition to the NFL in 2021.
• Stands tall in the pocket and is willing to get hit to deliver to ball.
• Good athlete who is elusive in the pocket and is a real powerful runner in the open field. He can be a dual threat weapon but is more a chain mover with his legs than a speedster who is going to take it to the house.
• Good arm with a real fast release that generates good velocity and helps him overcome a slightly elongated arm action. Almost looks like a wrist thrower at times.
• Advanced processor who reads the field. He can speed up in this regard still but he regularly gets to 2nd and 3rd reads.
• Set all his own protections and changes protections on the field which will put him ahead of the curve in the NFL.

 

Cons:

• Not what I’d call a precision passer. He is accurate and accurate enough to succeed in the NFL but ball placement can be a little inconsistent and he isn’t going to leave lots of room for YAC.
• Can be slightly late on his throws. Not sure if that is due to the time he takes going through progressions or if it is a result of his delivery or a combination of the two but at times he just gives a defensive back a chance to get a jump. 
• Bails the pocket too often and can get a little bit into ad-lib mode when pressure comes. Needs to trust his protection and stay within the structure of the play.
• I don’t see enough big boy NFL throws on the film. Those real tough NFL concepts, the back shoulder fade, the deep out, the corner route are a little sparse which may be scheme related but is something that gives pause.
• He is a bit risk averse. Throwing picks in his one 2020 appearance might be good for him because in 2019 he played at times as though an interception was always a disaster. Needs to let it rip more.
• Experience, or lack thereof, and poor competition. Would have loved to see him play in 2020 (not his fault North Dakota opted for a 1 game season) to see whether he developed further.

 

Conclusion: Trey Lance is a guy who has a pretty solid floor as a Quarterback able to run an effective NFL offense that incorporates play action, some Quarterback run game and the occasional deep shot. The competition he will face in the league is going to be a pretty big step up for him and he might need to sit early and be developed slowly but with the right team and right structure he can win a lot of football games. Long term my question a little bit is ceiling and whether he has the potential to be a truly elite top 5 type Quarterback. I’m not sold on that. Mid-first round grade.

 

- - - - - -

 

Trevor Lawrence – Clemson – Junior

Games watched: Ohio State, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame (all 2020); Texas A&M, Ohio State, LSU, Virginia (all 2019); Florida State, Alabama, Notre Dame (all 2018).

 

Pros:

• Prototypical size, good arm and high caliber athlete.
• Beautiful throwing motion, zero wasted effort, excellent touch and pinpoint accuracy in the short and intermediate range.
• Exceptional footwork, slides well within the pocket, his drops are precise and his footwork is refined and efficient. Also sells the play action fake as well as any college Quarterback.
• The best thrower of the back shoulder fade I have ever seen in college. Also throws the seam route very well and has no issue hitting a deep out to the open side of the field.
• Timing, rhythm passer that is aided by his ability to make quick decisions and get the ball out to his playmakers with near perfect placement to maximise YAC.
• Huge experience at the highest level of college football, exudes confidence and backs himself to make throws that challenge tight windows.

 

Cons:

• The blitz. Teams that have been able to create pressure with the blitz have caused Lawrence problems. He seems to struggle with identifying the blitzer and can start to get happy feet.
• Occasional miscues when on the move suggest he needs to do most of his damage from inside the pocket rather than in schemes that plan to get him outside.
• While he does get through progressions in the Clemson offense he can still improve as a full field reader. 
• Isn’t going to win with his legs in the NFL and when he is scrambling needs to learn to get down and slide.
• Difficult to project how he will respond to adversity. His football career has been successful at every stage and there will always be bumps in the road in the NFL. His capacity to overcome is unknown.
• Slight question about whether there has been a clear improvement arc from the guy who burst onto the scene in 2018 to the guy who is now the consensus #1 pick.

 

Conclusion: Trevor Lawrence is a high level NFL Quarterback prospect whose even after his freshman year at Clemson would have been the #1 pick in the NFL draft. He is technically as refined a Quarterback as I have ever scouted who does the basics needed to be successful in the league to a very high level. The question marks are about his ability to respond to adversity – both during games when his protection fails, and in his career when he hits bumps in the road – because he has faced so little thus far. If he can overcome that question mark he will be elite. Generational prospect grade.

 

- - - - - -

 

Mac Jones – Alabama – Redshirt Junior

Games watched: Georgia, Auburn, Florida, LSU, Notre Dame, Ohio State (all 2020); Auburn, Michigan (2019).

 

Pros:

• Accurate thrower at the short and intermediate level who has good ball placement and offers YAC opportunities to his playmakers.
• Good pre-snap identifies defenses and particularly good at selecting his match ups in man coverage and getting the ball to the guy most likely to win.
• Stands in under pressure, even against the blitz and is willing to take a hit to get a completion for his team.
• Throws with nice touch especially over the top of cheating up linebackers and into the zone in front of the safeties.
• Excellent placement on quick hitters and passes into the flat to backs.
• Timing thrower who understands the construct of the offense he operated at Alabama in minute detail which gives you confidence in his ability to pickup and learn an NFL playbook.

 

Cons:

• Below average athlete who will not be outrunning NFL defenders even to escape pressure when they beat their blocker.
• Downfield accuracy seems to allude him except for situations where he has a clean pocket and a guy running wide open, which highlights the limitations of his arm which is pretty average.
• General lack of tight window throws on the tape and where a tight window exists his inclination is to hold the ball and wait for his superior skill guys to create that separation.
• Noticed a worrying trend for batted balls at the line. Measured 6’3 but seems to play smaller, maybe influenced by a lack of thickness in the lower half of his frame.
• I don’t see lots of anticipatory throws beyond those that are simple one read timing throws. Tends to lock onto a receiver early rather than simply going where the progression takes him. 
• Relatively inexperienced as a starter despite his success in 2020. Will need to learn to be more poised under pressure and a more refined field reader to succeed at the next level.

 

Conclusion: Mac Jones to me is clearly a tier behind the other members of the “big 5” in this Quarterback draft class. He is smart, accurate and a fierce competitor who can find himself a starting job in the league. The question is whether his natural physical skills and lack of technical refinement will cap his ceiling despite his advanced mental abilities and natural intermediate range accuracy. I think Mac is an NFL starter who will win some games, but I feel he lacks true franchise altering potential. 2nd round grade.

 

- - - - - -

 

Okay folks... flame away!!

I haven't read this because I'm out of free articles (SI is now paywalled), but if it you haven't used up your free articles yet, have at it: https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/04/28/gameplan-nfl-draft-coaches-scouting-reports-2021-quarterbacks

[Doc]

TL:DR

 

 

 

 

 

Just kidding.  Will be interested to see how your evals hold-up.

[Nihilarian]

Wanna know what it was like in 2018 on draft day?

 

read the link...some funny stuff.

 

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/204970-2018-draft-1st-round-discussion/page/48/

 

[YoloinOhio]

5 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Wanna know what it was like in 2018 on draft day?

 

read the link...some funny stuff.

 

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/204970-2018-draft-1st-round-discussion/page/48/

 

I’ll pass. I’m not proud of my reaction that night. 

[TBBills]

I would love to see the Patriots get Fields just to fail at it.

[whatdrought]

Just tell me what I need to know to be confident that the Jets pick (and potentially the pats) will bust. 

[Bill from NYC]

15 hours ago, DCOrange said:

Justin Fields - 87 - high floor, high ceiling prospect, most likely comp is bigger Tyrod Taylor

Hold on.....you rate him at 87 and say at the same time that he will be comparabe to Tyrod Taylor.

 

I don't know, do you want to re-think this? 😉

Edited April 29, 2021 by Bill from NYC

[DCOrange]

Just now, Bill from NYC said:

Hold on.....you rate him at 87 and say at the same time that he will be comparabe To Tyrod Taylor.

 

I don't know, back to the drawing board perhaps? 😉

To me, Tyrod was roughly an average starting QB. I view Fields as very likely to be a better version of that at minimum with top 10 QB potential if things really click. I think that’s a safe and very good outcome. 

[Bill from NYC]

It's all cool. I too think that Tyrod was about average because of his mobility. The 87 threw me off.   

 

No harm intended. 👍

[Nihilarian]

56 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

Just tell me what I need to know to be confident that the Jets pick (and potentially the pats) will bust. 

Its gonna be interesting to see what the Jests do with Wilson. If they don't build that O line this season and really improve the offensive skill positions the kid might not survive it. That slight build is worrisome. 

 

Zach Wilson kind of strikes me as a sort of Josh Rosen type personality.

The kid is currently 6'2'' 213 lbs. 

 

The Jets needed to make certain he was 100% healthy and recovered from injury before dumping Darnold. 

 

"Someone will grab him in the first [round]. I doubt he gets to the second [round] because once the third quarterback goes, after Lawrence and Fields, there will be a run on them. [Wilson] has character concerns, rich kid who is an entitled brat - uncle owns Jet Blue -, parents are a pain, not a leader, selfish, and he's a know-it-all.

https://walterfootball.com/nflhotpress/article/Some-Teams-Have-Makeup-Concerns-with-Zach-Wilson

 

Look at his career college stats and he looks like a one year wonder. 

 

Weaknesses

Level of competition allowed for "bombs away" mindset in 2020.

Struggled with accuracy and decision-making against Coastal Carolina.

Carries ball down by waist as pocket scanner.

Has tendency to over-stride and sail throws at times.

Hero ball needs to be dialed back a bit.

Passed up on the easy throw to take the harder throw.

Doesn’t work with enough anticipation as a passer.

Will baby throws, forcing open receivers to break stride.

Ill-advised throws under pressure turned into interceptions in 2019.

Went 2-4 against top-25 teams during his career.

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/zach-wilson/32005749-4c82-7119-d27e-724ec33f130b

 

NFL comparison, Jake Plummer...

 

My take is the Jets really messed this one up. Should have kept Darnold and built an actual offense around him. Built a better O line and got him some playmaker WRs, a run game. "IF" he sucked after all that, then dump him. The Jets will look even worse if the guy takes Carolina to the playoffs this season. JMO